OHL Rookie of the Year 2015-16 (although one year older than many past winners). In pretty special company: Previous winners of the award include Wayne Gretzky (Sault Ste. Marie, 1978), Joe Thornton (Sault Ste. Marie, 1996), Rick Nash (London, 2001), John Tavares (Oshawa, 2006), Patrick Kane (London 2007), Taylor Hall (Windsor, 2008), Aaron Ekblad (Barrie, 2012) and Connor McDavid (Erie, 2013).
Also, Robbie Schremp
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Originally Posted by Biff
If the NHL ever needs an enema, Edmonton is where they'll insert it.
That sounds all fine and dandy... but are there any 5'6 all-world-skill types in this draft? I don't think so.
5'10" Clayton Keller's skill level is very high, he's been described by some as a Patrick Kane pure skill type and by others as a more Brendan Gallagher type gritty guy. He's even put up some pretty impressive 17-year old numbers in USNTDP:
Auston Matthews - 1.933 PPG
Phil Kessel - 1.780 PPG Clayton Keller - 1.726 PPG Jack Eichel - 1.642 PPG
Patrick Kane - 1.581 PPG
Matthew Tkachuk* - 1.477 PPG
James Van Riemsdyk - 1.267 PPG
Dylan Larkin - 0.933 PPG
*Tkachuk was 16 for some of that year, he's a mid-December birthday.
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The problem with that is we already have a wide range of undersized skill players. Andrew Mangiapane fits your description to a tee and he's already in the system.
What separates Mangiapane from, say, Mitch Marner, is everything Mangiapane did as a 17, 18, 19-year-old, Marner was doing as a 16, 17, 18 year old, where age relative to league is often an indicator of future success. Would you not trade Mangiapane + 6th overall for Mitch Marner in a heartbeat (If PLD were gone)? I would. Well there's a chance Clayton Keller is "that" kind of talent. I'm sure the scouts know what kind of talent he is.
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Last edited by GranteedEV; 05-01-2016 at 10:35 PM.
What separates Mangiapane from, say, Mitch Marner, is everything Mangiapane did as a 17, 18, 19-year-old, Marner was doing as a 16, 17, 18 year old, where age relative to league is often an indicator of future success.
To be more specific, what separates Marner and Mangiapane is 162 spots in last years draft. It was a lot easier for us to take a shot at him at that spot then it would be with a higher pick. Why you've compared him to Marner, or tried to suggest would it would take to trade for him is beyond me.
Keller has looked good from what I've seen, but I'd still rather go with Dubois or Tkachuk. You're entitled to your opinion, but I think you'll see the majority of lists and his actual selection sometime after 10th.
In the West in particular, we need to get bigger and stronger.
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Keller has looked good from what I've seen, but I'd still rather go with Dubois or Tkachuk.
I would rather draft Dubois over Keller as well, because Dubois is a very talented player with star upside. But I see a special player in Keller. Even if he falls to 30th overall, there's a strong chance he'll go down as one of the six best players out of this draft. I'm not sure that will be true of Tkachuk.
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You're entitled to your opinion, but I think you'll see the majority of lists and his actual selection sometime after 10th.
My opinion is that he's arguably a top 5 overall talent with his overall package. I can't predict where he'll go but I believe that in retrospect teams will be kicking themselves for passing on him. Drafts after all can only be judged years after the fact. Gaudreau has pulled ahead of 2011 1st overall Ryan Nugent Hopkins, 2nd overall Gabriel Landeskog, 3rd overall Jonathan Huberdeau, 4th overall Adam Larsson, 5th overall Ryan Strome, and 6th overall Mika Zibanejad. If you were in fact trading Gaudreau for one of those six players so that the Flames can "get bigger in the west", you would still expect those teams to add significantly. I bet from that same draft though, the Flames are kicking themselves for drafting Sven Baertschi at 13th overall instead of Nikita Kucherov.
Keller's risk isn't as high as a Gaudreau or Mangiapane, his risk is closer to Jonathan Drouin or Mitch Marner. Both top 5 talents in their respective drafts.
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Went with Sergachev. I think those top 3D are getting underrated on this board. I get the desire for a forward, but they still should pick the BPA.
From early on, scouts were saying 4-12 were really close. I think that is still the case. When the Flames worst case was 8th, Treliving said he was comfortable they would get a good player. Obviously that holds true at 6. Possible to trade down, but I doubt it, as other GMs know the grouping is so close.
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From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
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Went with Sergachev. I think those top 3D are getting underrated on this board. I get the desire for a forward, but they still should pick the BPA.
From early on, scouts were saying 4-12 were really close. I think that is still the case. When the Flames worst case was 8th, Treliving said he was comfortable they would get a good player. Obviously that holds true at 6. Possible to trade down, but I doubt it, as other GMs know the grouping is so close.
Lot of players to select at 6th, honestly all of them are a reach. Never the less I would not be upset with Sergachev. Still think we can trade down a few spots and get him though. I think the same way about every player we could select at 6th.
Most fans are against dmen in the first round. They want a clear cut stud ready to play now. I want that too. Yet taking the BPA is the right route.
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I bet from that same draft though, the Flames are kicking themselves for drafting Sven Baertschi at 13th overall instead of Nikita Kucherov.
Every team in the NHL is kicking themselves over Gaudreau and Kucherov in that draft, several times over. Too much dwellig on hindsight in that post for my liking.
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV
Keller's risk isn't as high as a Gaudreau or Mangiapane, his risk is closer to Jonathan Drouin or Mitch Marner. Both top 5 talents in their respective drafts.
That's the difference for me. Those guys were pretty much universally recognized as top five talents in that draft. Keller isn't. It's fine that you feel very strong about it, but I think you'll find yourself in a minority for it.
Went with Sergachev. I think those top 3D are getting underrated on this board. I get the desire for a forward, but they still should pick the BPA.
From early on, scouts were saying 4-12 were really close. I think that is still the case. When the Flames worst case was 8th, Treliving said he was comfortable they would get a good player. Obviously that holds true at 6.Possible to trade down, but I doubt it, as other GMs know the grouping is so close.
I completely agree with the bolded.
As far as underrating the D/Sergachev, I just think people are focused on the need for top 6 forwards. Also the fact there is no clear cut top D in the draft has people unsure who to lean towards.
I personally would be fine with landing a D but only if that's their BPA. I trust their scouting.
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I look back at the Flames in 89 - without a doubt, the best Flames' team ever assembled.
They were a big bad-ass team. Want to play rough? The Flames would roll over you and leave the skaters picking their teeth off the ice, and the goalie picking the puck out from the net. Want to play a skilled game? Flames had snipers, they had guys to dig the puck out of the corners and make plays, they had finesse players that could stickhandle in a phonebooth and then some.
Looking at Calgary's lineup right now, their biggest hole is on RW (ok, let's ignore the goalie anyways - the 6th overall pick is not going to be used to address that gigantic glaring hole), and it is with big, physical players that can make plays and put the puck in the net.
Teams like LA, Anaheim, St.Louis, etc., can look at Calgary and know: "Ok, they are skilled and fast, but really undersized and not very physical at all, especially in their top 6. Our job is to go out there and just make life difficult for their top 6 guys. Hit them every chance you get, but don't take penalties. Double-up on Gaudreau, but make sure you cover Monahan and pick up the trailing D. Cycle the puck in the offensive zones - no passing up the middle in the defensive zone!"
I swear that is what those teams use as part of their strategy.
Yes, having Keller on the second line would make it a bit tougher for teams to focus on Gaudreau, but the difference is essentially the same. It does not change the team dynamic. It does not give Hartley more options in how to modify the game's strategy. It just gives him another (great) weapon on the 2nd line, but all teams will do is write up Keller's name beside Bennett's, and use quotation marks to describe how to handle that line exactly as you would handle the top line.
I think it helps to roll out different lines with different types of players, and I think it helps to have both a lot of skill and a lot of size/toughness.
I really wanted the 2nd overall pick this year since Laine could have gone a long ways in addressing it. You can't double-team Gaudreau any longer. Laine could help disrupt the board play at both ends of the ice and make a solid pass to either Gaudreau or Monahan.
Now, Laine's ship has sailed obviously (and it was just a pipe-dream anyways), but that is the kind of presence I think the Flames require on the top two lines. I voted Jost - but only because he at least is a very dynamic player that isn't undersized. I don't think he is that less skilled than Keller. I think he is more skilled than Nylander and possesses a non-stop motor that would compliment Bennett extremely well.
I am a bit leery of Brown. I would pick Brown ahead of Keller without blinking an eye, though, and it is simply because huge guys with skill that you can legitimately put on the top line - or even at least on the 2nd line - are difficult to find.
I am not even talking about a Lucic type that runs over everyone. That would just be a great 'plus'. You need guys that can disrupt a cycle game at least. Hopefully guys that are good on the cycle so that Hartley can add that to the repertoire of his systems when line-matching against other teams.
With this 6th pick, give me the most talented big man, or give me the most complimentary player to Bennett so the Flames can at least roll 2 legitimate scoring lines in opposing rinks.
I think Keller is a heck of a prospect. I wouldn't HATE the pick. I would just be worried that this team - though very skilled - is still relatively easy for teams that are both big and skilled to defend against, or at least, neutralize somewhat. Flames have a hard time neutralizing the big teams. Gaudreau can still put up points against these big teams at times - it isn't like he just gets rubbed out all the time and rendered useless. It is that these teams know that if they force the Flames to play along the boards, the game is over. Keller - even with his all-world skill - isn't going to change it.
Ask me next week, and I may be hoping for a different player though. At this point, Jost is my pick, even though I think Keller is more talented. I do think that Jost has more talent than Nylander though, and a much better motor.
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I look back at the Flames in 89 - without a doubt, the best Flames' team ever assembled.
They were a big bad-ass team. Want to play rough? The Flames would roll over you and leave the skaters picking their teeth off the ice, and the goalie picking the puck out from the net. Want to play a skilled game? Flames had snipers, they had guys to dig the puck out of the corners and make plays, they had finesse players that could stickhandle in a phonebooth and then some.
Looking at Calgary's lineup right now, their biggest hole is on RW (ok, let's ignore the goalie anyways - the 6th overall pick is not going to be used to address that gigantic glaring hole), and it is with big, physical players that can make plays and put the puck in the net.
Teams like LA, Anaheim, St.Louis, etc., can look at Calgary and know: "Ok, they are skilled and fast, but really undersized and not very physical at all, especially in their top 6. Our job is to go out there and just make life difficult for their top 6 guys. Hit them every chance you get, but don't take penalties. Double-up on Gaudreau, but make sure you cover Monahan and pick up the trailing D. Cycle the puck in the offensive zones - no passing up the middle in the defensive zone!"
I swear that is what those teams use as part of their strategy.
Yes, having Keller on the second line would make it a bit tougher for teams to focus on Gaudreau, but the difference is essentially the same. It does not change the team dynamic. It does not give Hartley more options in how to modify the game's strategy. It just gives him another (great) weapon on the 2nd line, but all teams will do is write up Keller's name beside Bennett's, and use quotation marks to describe how to handle that line exactly as you would handle the top line.
I think it helps to roll out different lines with different types of players, and I think it helps to have both a lot of skill and a lot of size/toughness.
I really wanted the 2nd overall pick this year since Laine could have gone a long ways in addressing it. You can't double-team Gaudreau any longer. Laine could help disrupt the board play at both ends of the ice and make a solid pass to either Gaudreau or Monahan.
Now, Laine's ship has sailed obviously (and it was just a pipe-dream anyways), but that is the kind of presence I think the Flames require on the top two lines. I voted Jost - but only because he at least is a very dynamic player that isn't undersized. I don't think he is that less skilled than Keller. I think he is more skilled than Nylander and possesses a non-stop motor that would compliment Bennett extremely well.
I am a bit leery of Brown. I would pick Brown ahead of Keller without blinking an eye, though, and it is simply because huge guys with skill that you can legitimately put on the top line - or even at least on the 2nd line - are difficult to find.
I am not even talking about a Lucic type that runs over everyone. That would just be a great 'plus'. You need guys that can disrupt a cycle game at least. Hopefully guys that are good on the cycle so that Hartley can add that to the repertoire of his systems when line-matching against other teams.
With this 6th pick, give me the most talented big man, or give me the most complimentary player to Bennett so the Flames can at least roll 2 legitimate scoring lines in opposing rinks.
I think Keller is a heck of a prospect. I wouldn't HATE the pick. I would just be worried that this team - though very skilled - is still relatively easy for teams that are both big and skilled to defend against, or at least, neutralize somewhat. Flames have a hard time neutralizing the big teams. Gaudreau can still put up points against these big teams at times - it isn't like he just gets rubbed out all the time and rendered useless. It is that these teams know that if they force the Flames to play along the boards, the game is over. Keller - even with his all-world skill - isn't going to change it.
Interesting you point to that 89 team because even though they had some big and tough forwards, they also had 3 undersized and highly skilled wingers who drove the offense in Loob, Mullen and Fleury. Not to mention an undersized second line centre in Gilmour.
If the Flames feel Keller is a Patrick Kane or Gaudreau type player, they have to take him regardless of size. They can always fill the rest of the forward ranks with size to support the skill.
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Calgary Flames, PLEASE GO TO THE NET! AND SHOOT THE PUCK! GENERATING OFFENSE IS NOT DIFFICULT! SKATE HARD, SHOOT HARD, CRASH THE NET HARD!
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Flames already have Gaudreau, Shinkaruk and Mangiapane for undersized skilled forwards. I don't think you can have more than 2-3 ideally. Keller would make 4. That wouldn't be a recipe for winning in the Pacific division.
It's so hard to find size, strength, skill and skating all together. Top 6 in a deep top end is where you can find it. You don't turn down that opportunity IMO.
Last edited by Flames Draft Watcher; 05-02-2016 at 02:03 AM.
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I'm intrigued by Brown like many others, but the Joe Colborne comparisons scare the bejeezus outta me. If a 6th overall draft pick turns into Colborne-- while not a bust, it is definitely not a successful pick. A 6th overall pick NEEDS to become a slam-dunk top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman.
And plays like he's 5'10 and 160 pounds. Flames don't need any more pretty players, they need some guys who will go to the dirty spots and score the dirty goals.
Which proves you are talking without actually watching him play. Nylander scores from the dirty spots and in close quite often. He is also used on the PK because of his excellent hockey IQ and stick work.You are totally right though, we certainly cannot use a RH shot who has great speed burst, great agility, high hockey IQ, an absolute lethal and accurate shot, who plays a 200 foot game. We have those in bunches!
Through my youtube warrior scouting methods I have been really hoping that Tkachuk would fall to us. But after watching some more video, Nylander really looks like a special talent. I know that we all want a big and gritty winger, but Nylander is basically avg size already and has plenty of time to fill out.
I think that our desire for great talent in a big player is sometimes a lost leader. There arent many truley talented large players in the league.
Nylander gets plenty of praise for being a very smart player, and comes accross as a real humble kid. It sure looks like his dad raised him right. I am at piece with the whole draft now knowing that we will get either Tkachuck or Nylander, and it may even be a blessing in disguise if it happens to be the latter.
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Last edited by Chingas; 05-02-2016 at 06:36 AM.
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Was there for that goal against Barrie... just wow. Kid is all skill and he digs for the puck along the boards, isn't afraid of the dirty areas, skates well - will get better. He seems too highend to pass on, especially if Tkachuk/Dubois are gone at that point and with not as much need Defensively.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Nylander -- Hudler showed how well a smaller/skilled RW could play on this line and Nylander is a natural RWer, seems like this could be a high end line especially with Colborne - Backlund - Frolik taking the shutdown role and Shinkurak - Bennett - Ferland/Pribyl taking reps as well. We could have a very lethal offense next season already and with Burke saying everyone in the top 8 is going to push for a roster spot right up until the final day of camp/pre-season, to add another guy like Nylander/Dubois/Tkachuk (one of these Three is ours IMO) seems all most too good to be true at this point. Very excited for the draft, think we have a chance to hit a homerun again.
