[GDT] 2016 NHL Draft Lottery, 8pm EDT (6pm MDT), CBC, NBC, TVA

[Firebot]

I ran the lotto simulator once. First pick was Oilers, I closed the window without finishing...

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by The Professor

You know, one good argument for not wanting Columbus to win the lottery from the 4 spot is that we will have to deal with literally a decade of CP whining about that last win of the season where WE COULD HAVE BEEN #4!

Some people on CP will whine about that regardless of who wins the lottery. Even if the Flames win.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Thanks, I just saw this as well.

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzieBob McKenzie
Lottery reveal scheduled for 8:05 to 8:20 or thereabouts. Puck drop in WSH at 8:25:

So that's 6:05 to 6:20 Alberta time?

Jeebus the 5-6pm wait is gonna be rough.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Some people on CP will whine about that regardless of who wins the lottery. Even if the Flames win.

Guaranteed.

Although I bet the teams would be randomly assigned different combinations anyways if the standings were changed. All it would take is for the program that spits out random numbers to start at a different time.

[polak]

Starting to get a bit nervous now. Dont usually care this much but a top 3 pick would go so far for this team. Could change the course of the franchise.

Hopefully we dont move back....

[CroFlames]

Are you guys sure about the start time of the lottery? I thought it was 5PM Mountain/4PM PT?

The Caps game starts at 6PM Mountain/5PM PT.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Give me the top three pick and get us on our way to Cup contenders any day of the week

We have a 26.3% of a top 4 pick. that means 3 out of every 4 times, we won't have a top 3 pick. It's just being realistic to not expect a top 3 pick. The Oilers have a 39.0% chance at a top 3 pick, or 2 out of every 5 lottos.

Originally Posted by jayswin

We're talking about the same Oilers team that can't finish out of the bottom five no matter how many first round picks they add right?

Not really the same team at all. It's optimistic to expect them to stay terrible. Compare 2013-14 with a potential 2016-17 roster:


2013-14 Oilers:
Hall / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle
Perron / Gagner / Yakupov
Hendricks / Gordon / Smyth

Marincin / Petry
Ference / Schultz

Dubnyk in the worst season of his career

VS

2017 Oilers if they trade Eberle for a very middling return, like Sami Vatanen, and sign Jason Demers in UFA

Laine / McDavid / Maroon
Hall / Draisaitl / Nugent-Hopkins
Hendricks / Letestu / Kassian

Davidson-Demers
Klefbom-Sekera
Oesterle-Vatanen
Nurse

Talbot

First of all you have better goaltending in Talbot.
Next Sekera and Petry might be a wash but Davidson and Klefbom are good defensemen who had injury plagued seasons this year. Davidson in particular was flat out dominant once he started getting steady minutes, but Klefbom is also a good two-way D. Vatanen anchors your offense from the backend and Oesterle is a good two-way #6.
Finally you've got a forward group that actually plays a pretty heavy cycle game.

We saw before Klefbom's injury that the Oilers were starting to turn things around this season even without McDavid. Let's not be oblivious, their roster is actually pretty okay as-is and they've got a ton of cap space to iron out the kinks plus a GM who has no attachment to any of their old core.

The Pacific division is much, much better off without a guy like Laine or Puljujarvi or Matthews going to the Oilers. I don't care how bad they've failed the last six years, their roster is starting to get deep. at places it wasn't deep three years ago. They did the classic tank job of keeping guys who played well on IR (Davidson/Klefbom/McDavid/Hopkins) and that's the biggest reason they don't deserve this kind of pick.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by polak

Starting to get a bit nervous now. Dont usually care this much but a top 3 pick would go so far for this team. Could change the course of the franchise.

Hopefully we dont move back....

McDavid, aka the 2nd coming of Christ, didn't change the course of the Oilers franchise.

[JohnnyT]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Are you guys sure about the start time of the lottery? I thought it was 5PM Mountain/4PM PT?

The Caps game starts at 6PM Mountain/5PM PT.

Lottery show starts at 5 but per Bobby Mac actual draw is between 6:05 and 6:20, Puck drop on the caps game at 6:25

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Not really the same team at all. It's optimistic to expect them to stay terrible. .

^ all of that is irrelevant. If there's one universal truth we've learned in the last decade, it's that no one - forevermore - should be allowed to talk about what Edmonton *might* do in terms of improving. They have shown beyond a doubt that no matter what happens, they find a way to remain perennial losers.

[CASe333]

Just keep your expectations low and I can guarantee you will be ecstatic in the end

[TheOnlyBilko]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just ran a one-off. Not sure how I feel about it.



Flames lose but so do Oilers and Jets (and Canucks and Leafs)

Not sure how you feel about it? Well I'll tell you.... *PUKES*

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

^ all of that is irrelevant. If there's one universal truth we've learned in the last decade, it's that no one - forevermore - should be allowed to talk about what Edmonton *might* do in terms of improving. They have shown beyond a doubt that no matter what happens, they find a way to remain perennial losers.

5th OA / 1st OA / 2nd OA / 1st OA / 2nd OA / Playoffs / SCF / Cup

That is an eight year stretch of where the Penguins were at between 2002 and 2009.

The Oilers might have taken longer than that to finally get a McDavid but now that they have him we shouldn't just gladly be fine with them also getting Laine.

Let's just agree best case scenario is Oilers pick 4th or 5th and Flames pick 1st or 2nd or 3rd. There's a 16.043% chance of that outcome.

[fanman]

I must be cracking a bit. I`ve avoided running the simulator but gave it a go today, hah.

Edmonton-1st
Calgary-2nd
Toronto-3rd

I could live with that, although seeing the Oilers` smug grins as they grab another 1st overall would be cringe worthy. If the Flames do end up in the top 3 I don`t really care who the other teams are.

[Caged Great]

I personally could not care less where any other team picks. I want the Flames to have the best possible pick.

Picking 8th would be horrible.

[fire_starter]

Is there any online stream for this? I'm at work unfortunately so will have to rely on you guys.

[3thirty]

CBC should have it online, wont work for me though being in Australia.

[Skaloper]

Wow first three selections are draft lottery now!

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

We have a 26.3% of a top 4 pick. that means 3 out of every 4 times, we won't have a top 3 pick. It's just being realistic to not expect a top 3 pick. The Oilers have a 39.0% chance at a top 3 pick, or 2 out of every 5 lottos.



Not really the same team at all. It's optimistic to expect them to stay terrible. Compare 2013-14 with a potential 2016-17 roster:


2013-14 Oilers:
Hall / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle
Perron / Gagner / Yakupov
Hendricks / Gordon / Smyth

Marincin / Petry
Ference / Schultz

Dubnyk in the worst season of his career

VS

2017 Oilers if they trade Eberle for a very middling return, like Sami Vatanen, and sign Jason Demers in UFA

Laine / McDavid / Maroon
Hall / Draisaitl / Nugent-Hopkins
Hendricks / Letestu / Kassian

Davidson-Demers
Klefbom-Sekera
Oesterle-Vatanen
Nurse

Talbot

First of all you have better goaltending in Talbot.
Next Sekera and Petry might be a wash but Davidson and Klefbom are good defensemen who had injury plagued seasons this year. Davidson in particular was flat out dominant once he started getting steady minutes, but Klefbom is also a good two-way D. Vatanen anchors your offense from the backend and Oesterle is a good two-way #6.
Finally you've got a forward group that actually plays a pretty heavy cycle game.

We saw before Klefbom's injury that the Oilers were starting to turn things around this season even without McDavid. Let's not be oblivious, their roster is actually pretty okay as-is and they've got a ton of cap space to iron out the kinks plus a GM who has no attachment to any of their old core.

The Pacific division is much, much better off without a guy like Laine or Puljujarvi or Matthews going to the Oilers. I don't care how bad they've failed the last six years, their roster is starting to get deep. at places it wasn't deep three years ago. They did the classic tank job of keeping guys who played well on IR (Davidson/Klefbom/McDavid/Hopkins) and that's the biggest reason they don't deserve this kind of pick.

I'll attempt a reply, but your responses are always so long and go in so many directions, it's tough.

You started by explaining how odds work to me, which I and most adults understand. I made no indication that I thought we had really good odds at a lottery pick.

Basically my entire premise is that I'll take a lottery pick and don't care about what other teams win top 3 spots in a scenario where we win, and have expressed bewilderment at posters who seem to be happy/okay with results that screw the Flames as long as rivals get screwed as well.

Point being, it's a 30 team league, teams are going benefit from draft position and get better because of it. I'd rather we be a lottery team benefiting, even if rivals do as well. I guess I muddied things up with my throwaway comments about the Oilers and Canucks sucking.

Of course they could benefit from top 3 picks, but to me I'll take that if it means we do, too, as I trust the idea that the Flames are the furthest along in their rebuild of the three. To oversimplify, if you gave me two scenarios next season standings based on all three teams getting lottery picks vs not, and they were;

Flames 3rd in the west
Oilers 6th in the west
Canucks 8th in west

or

Flames 7th in the west
Oilers 9th in the west
Canucks 10th in the west

I'll take the former. Let's become a better team and let the other teams do what they do, rather than hoping we don't become the best team possible including this draft so that our rivals don't either.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by jayswin

hoping we don't become the best team possible including this draft so that our don't either.

Never said I hope we don't become the best team possible?

The Oilers being out of the top 3 and the Flames being in the top 3 are (mostly) mutuallly exclusive. I can be partially happy at one outcome and partially disapointed at the other leading to a net... "I don't know I feel".