[GDT] 2016 NHL Draft Lottery, 8pm EDT (6pm MDT), CBC, NBC, TVA

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Well everyone, here's probably the 2nd most intriguing day of the off-season, right after the actual draft itself. I'm sure we all want a good outcome, but let's not Oiler up the place if it happens by over-celebrating. I'll be happy with any of the top 3 slots. I'll be satisfied with 6th since the odds show us taking that slot at a high ratio. I'll be somewhat disappointed with a 7th or 8th slot, but I won't cry over it. I'll be actually stunned if we grab the 5th slot since it hasn't happened once in any simulation that Bingo has run, nor in any of my simulations.

Here's the odds of picking 1st overall:

Toronto Maple Leafs: 20%
Edmonton Oilers: 13.5%
Vancouver Canucks: 11.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets: 9.5%
Calgary Flames: 8.5%
Winnipeg Jets: 7.5%
Arizona Coyotes: 6.5%
Buffalo Sabres: 6%
Montreal Canadiens: 5%
Colorado Avalanche: 3.5%
New Jersey Devils: 3%
Ottawa Senators: 2.5%
Carolina Hurricanes: 2%
Boston Bruins: 1%

Once that first pick is made, it's a smorgasbord of different possibilities, but sufficed to say that the higher your chances at the 1st overall pick, the higher your subsequent chances are at a top 3 pick.

Here's the likelihood for the Flames today:

1st: 8.5%
2nd: 8.8%
3rd: 9%
4th: N/A
5th: 9.1%
6th: 35.5%
7th: 25.5%
8th: 3.7%
9th: Significant chance

Just for info, here's the odds for the bottom 3 teams.

30th: Maple Leafs
1st: 20%
2nd: 17.5%
3rd: 15%
4th: 47.5%

29th: Oilers
1st: 13.5%
2nd: 13.1%
3rd: 12.5%
4th: 35.2%
5th: 25.8%

28th: Canucks
1st: 11.5%
2nd: 11.3%
3rd: 11.2%
4th: 14.2%
5th: 37.8%
6th: 13.8%


Here's a link to a site that does sample simulations if you want to try it out for yourself: http://nhllotterysimulator.com

Here's a link to Bingo's most recent blog on this topic if you want to see some further commentary. You can see his 18 iterations with poll rankings from the site at the bottom.

http://www.calgarypuck.com/2016/04/l...ix-april-29th/



Oh yeah, and one last thing...






Go Flames Go!!!!!!

[JJ1532]

I want us to win a lottery simply so we don't have another 2 months of debate on which player we take should we end up 5th-8th. Fingers crossed for good outcome here, but preparing for a 1-2-3 of Edmonton, Vancouver and Arizona, or those 3 in any order. That would be horrific.

[Angelino]

Too bad Calgary ruined their chances of getting a better pick winning meaningless games at the end of the season. Can't even lose correctly.

Expecting the worst, hoping for the best...

[HotHotHeat]

How is CBC planning on showing the draft lottery and the Pens-Caps game at the same time?

[Angelino]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

How is CBC planning on showing the draft lottery and the Pens-Caps game at the same time?

In between periods would probably make the most sense.

[Toonage]

Time discussed in post 158

[nik-]

Can't wait to draft 8th overall!

[Rhettzky]

Are they starting from the top of the order or the bottom when they reveal?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Rhettzky

Are they starting from the top of the order or the bottom when they reveal?

Bottom most likely, it's what they usually do. Along with 3 commercial breaks along the way.

[savemedrzaius]

Expecting Leafs to drop to 4th so anything in the Top 3 is a bonus.

[jmac98]

Originally Posted by nik-

Bottom most likely, it's what they usually do. Along with 3 commercial breaks along the way.

I thought I heard on the radio earlier this week they were changing format and drafting the 1st overall 'first' and going in that order.

[The Professor]

Posted this in one of the Simulator threads. I've been thinking, beyond wanting the Flames to obviously get a lottery pick, and Edmonton and Vancouver not getting one, which teams do I want to get it/not get it. Here is my list.

Vancouver - I live there, it would suck. I'd rather them be starting a long, hard rebuild.
Edmonton - It makes me angry the thought of them winning.
....
Arizona - I don't know why, I just don't like them. They always piss me off when we play them.
New Jersey - I don't know why. I guess I watched them dominate in the 90's.
Montreal - They've had enough.
Colorado - They are approaching Oiler-esque ineptitude, they have a tonne of high level young players and still suck. Screw em.
Carolina - Unless they're moving to Quebec. Eh?!
...
Teams I would really mind if they won
...
Toronto - I don't mind them as much as some others. Feel bad for them.
Boston
Buffalo
Columbus
Jets!
Sens!
...
...
...
FLAMES!

What's your list?

[FireItUp]

This please.

[Southside]

^^That would be awesome. Trade first overall to Arizona for 2nd +. They get Matthews and we take Laine and the +. Everyone is happy.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Ran it three times, never tried it before...

1. Flames / Oilers / Habs
2. Avs / Yotes / Oilers
3. Jackets / Yotes / Oilers

Seriously the Oilers can't even lose a simulated lottery.

[FBI]

Superstitions: Activate!

Today is The day that the NHL finally screwed over the Oilers and rewarded the Flames.

[FireItUp]

Originally Posted by Southside

^^That would be awesome. Trade first overall to Arizona for 2nd +. They get Matthews and we take Laine and the +. Everyone is happy.

Yeah, if that draft order were to happen I think the Flames would look at making a trade with Arizona.

[Vinny01]

I have a good feeling about tonight. Positive vibes we are coming away with one of the top 3 picks

[Bunk]

Try to look at the bright side of whatever pick.

8th means Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto fell out of the top 3.
7th means at least one of Vancouver or Edmonton out of the top 3, maybe both.
6th means we only dropped a spot and get a decent draft position. Might be an attractive slot to trade down a few to get another asset and a player we want.
5th means we can land one of Dubios or Tkachuk (probably the best consolation prizes).
4th means something is broken, or they kicked the Oilers out of the league.
3rd - Puljujarvi, great all round player
2nd - Laine, dynamic sniper. Ovechkin like.
1st - Franchise Centre, insanely good Centre depth going forward.

Sticking with prediction of 3rd pick.

[Blarg]

Originally Posted by FireItUp

This please.

Swap NJ with the blue jackets, and that would be my ideal scenario. Columbus is a good city, they could use a top 6 forward.