2016 NHL Draft

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I'm not just talking about risk though. I'm talking about reward too. How many #1Cs or #1Ws can you name that weren't taken high in the draft? Probably not as many as you can name #1D.

There is risk of busting at any position but there's very little chance of reward outside the top picks at forward. If you went through the two or three best defensemen on most teams I think you'd find a very random spread in draft position. If you did the same for forward I think you'd be consistently looking at guys drafted top 5, top 10 (with the occasional "draft day faller" like Kopitar or Forsberg or Saad)

I'm not sure that's true either but would require a lot of research to prove. Since I'm not interested in spending hours on it we'll do a quick pass.

Top 15 scoring forwards from this year drafted outside the first two rounds include:
Benn (5th rounder)
Gaudreau (4th rounder)
Pavelski (7th rounder)
Panarin (undrafted)

4/15 of the top scoring forwards were not taken in the first two rounds. Almost 1/3

http://www.thephwa.com/news_article/...rer_id=1083685

Top 15 Norris voted defensemen from the previous year that weren't drafted in the first two rounds:
Giordano (undrafted)
Letang (3rd rounder)
Byfuglien (8th rounder)
Stralman (7th rounder)

4/15 of the top Norris vote getters from last season were not taken in the first two rounds. Almost 1/3

So identical results there. The majority of high end players are drafted in the first two rounds whether they are defensemen or forwards. And that is exactly what you'd expect.

[Hackey]

Jesus Benn 5th. I thought he was a 2nd.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yes, I am. Which is why I've been a proponent of drafting a guy that will fill gaps in our system and not BPA off of some fictional list. I'd much rather take a couple guys that have potential to address a need than draft a guy that you hope develops so you have a great player to trade to address that same need.

There is no fictional list. There is an actual list made by the Flames scouts who have put in an entire year of scouting work to make. The Flames will pick based off that list. If a defenseman is at the top of the list when we pick then so be it. We should not take what our scouts believe is an inferior player just because they fill our immediate needs better.

Originally Posted by New Era

If they don't? Because it seems like you've done an awful lot of work to convince yourself a defenseman would be a good pick, especially the Finn.

You're actually mischaracterizing my views there. I would prefer we don't pick a defenseman. I would much prefer a big, strong, skilled forward. I'm not in love with this crop of defensemen.

What started this debate was my statement that the Flames are laughing if we get a Brodie calibre type player from this draft and I still believe that. If we got a Brodie from this draft you'd consider it a disappointment?

Originally Posted by New Era

This draft is a little special. There has been a certain liquidity in the rankings for quite some time. There has been no clear stratification like we have seen in previous years. This draft is as wide open as I can remember. Great top three that everyone appears to agree upon, but then a a real mess after that. No consensus on anything.

That's pretty much every draft. You're probably just watching the rankings more closely this time and are better informed about this draft than some previous ones. The less you follow the draft the more easily you start to believe in a consensus. If you follow a draft super closely you notice the lack of consensus and the wildly varying views.

Originally Posted by New Era

All of them are average to below average size. Potential to grow, but still at or below average size for a NHL defenseman. We have plenty of players of this ilk, we need bigger bodies. Peferabley bigger bodies on the forward lines with some skill, which is available in this draft, or bigger bodies on the blueline that like the physical play, which is available in the later rounds. No need to waste what could be one of the highest picks this team makes on a position or type of player we have an abundant supply of.

I fully support the idea of adding size/strength. But you're not going to take Logan Stanley top 10 just because he's big, strong and mean. You have to take one of the best players available at your pick.

If we're drafting 7th and Tkachuk, Dubois and Nylander all go before our pick then a defenseman is probably going to be the best available player left. If the Flames want to deal down there and find good value then fine. If they like a player at #7 there then great.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Jesus Benn 5th. I thought he was a 2nd.

He was a 5th rounder, 129 overall.

[GranteedEV]

I picked them subjectively, but these were IMO the top 3 defensemen and top 3 forwards on each playoff team and their draft position:



Counting Forwards taken top 8, I count twenty-three of forty-eight.
Counting Defensemen taken top 8, I count eight of forty-eight.

Counting Forwards taken after 30th OA, I count eleven of forty-eight.
Counting Defensemen taken after 30th OA, I count twenty-six of forty-eight.

Guys like Pavelski, Gaudreau, and Benn are great outliers but I'm not sure guys like Subban, Keith, Brodie, and Letang are. They appear to be the norm.

EDIT: hold on, let me do the Blues and Flyers. Whoops.
EDIT2: fixed

[Flames Draft Watcher]

There's a few issues with the methodology IMO. 3 forwards out of 12 is 1/4, the entire 1st line. 3 defensemen out of 6 is 1/2, more than the top pairing. If you wanted to have equivalent lists and you wanna take a look at top 3 defensemen then we should be taking a look at the top 6 forwards not just the top 3. Additionally because of the fact more forwards are taken in the draft than defensemen you need to take a look at % rates of busting/turning out vs raw # of them. Because just looking at the raw numbers will bias the results against defensemen because less of them are taken high on average

Once you're done I'm going to crunch your list using the top 2 defensemen from the playoff teams and seeing how many forwards vs defensemen were found outside the top two rounds.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah I was about to say all that shows me is that there are a lot more good forwards in the NHL than there are good d-men.

Lots of decent forwards were left off that list - not many good d-men were.

[GranteedEV]

Would adding a fourth best forward even out the odds? I don't think a fifth best forward is equivalent in value to a #3D but a fourth best probably is. I feel 5th/6th best forwards and #4D are your replacement level players.

[dissentowner]

I just want the damn draft to get here already. I am sure I will be pumped about whomever we add, either way we will get a solid prospect.

[druetetective]

Love case studies like this. Good job guys!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Using your list GranteedEV we find the following

Top 3 playoff forwards taken outside the top two rounds:
Benn, Palat, Pavelski, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Nielsen

that's 6 out of 48. 12.5%

Top pairing playoff defensemen taken outside the top two rounds:
Klingberg, Spurgeon, Stralman, Muzzin, Hjalmarsson, Girardi, Gostisbehere, Streit

That's 8 out of 32. 25%

So using your numbers there is a slightly better chance of finding a top pairing d-man outside of the first couple rounds. But some teams have 3 top pairing d-men and some teams don't have any (Philly for example.) So IMO the Norris voting vs the top 15 scoring forwards was a better representation of the top players in the league. Not sure anybody really thinks Spurgeon, Ghost or Streit are top pairing d-men in reality.

Interesting discussion at any rate. The numbers IMO tell us that you find the majority of the best players in the first two rounds both forwards and defensemen.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Would adding a fourth best forward even out the odds? I don't think a fifth best forward is equivalent in value to a #3D but a fourth best probably is. I feel 5th/6th best forwards and #4D are your replacement level players.

4 best Forwards, 3 best D



That fourth forward sure does seem easier to acquire than the first three. How confident are we in Bennett / Monahan / Gaudreau as our top 3 forwards?

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

. Not sure anybody really thinks Spurgeon, Ghost or Streit are top pairing d-men in reality.

Probably not Streit but the other two have a very strong case. At the very least in the same sense that "Dougie Hamilton" has a strong case.

[bucksmasher]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

4/15 of the top scoring forwards were not taken in the first two rounds. Almost 1/3.

That's actually a lot closer to 1/4 than 1/3

[SuperMatt18]

Another interesting look of that is how the players were acquired by the teams they are on currently.

Of the 64 top four forwards on playoff teams they were acquired in the following ways:

• 36/64 Were Drafted (56%)
• 20/64 Were Traded (31%)
• 8/64 Were FAs (13%)

Of the 48 top 3 d-men on playoff teams they were acquired in the following ways:

• 29/48 were drafted (60%)
• 10/48 were traded (21%)
• 9/48 were FAs (19%)

So really I think the story here IMO is draft who you think the best player available is going to be. It's slightly easier to acquire a top forward via a trade, but also slightly easier to acquire a top d-man as a UFA.

Draft best player available and deal with the consequences later would be my reco.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Another interesting look of that is how the players were acquired by the teams they are on currently.

Of the 64 top four forwards on playoff teams they were acquired in the following ways:

• 36/64 Were Drafted (56%)
• 20/64 Were Traded (31%)
• 8/64 Were FAs (13%)

Of the 48 top 3 d-men on playoff teams they were acquired in the following ways:

• 29/48 were drafted (60%)
• 10/48 were traded (21%)
• 9/48 were FAs (19%)

So really I think the story here IMO is draft who you think the best player available is going to be. It's slightly easier to acquire a top forward via a trade, but also slightly easier to acquire a top d-man as a UFA.

Draft best player available and deal with the consequences later would be my reco.

Of the drafted, how many were top 8 which I think pertains to us as we're drafting top 8?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Of the drafted, how many were top 8 which I think pertains to us as we're drafting top 8?

13 of the 36 forwards that were drafted by the teams went in the top 8 (36%)

• 5 - 1st Overall
• 3 - 2nd Overall
• 2 - 3rd Overall
• 1 - 4th Overall
• 0 - 5th Overall
• 1 - 6th Overall
• 1- 7th Overall
• 0 - 8th Overall

6 of the 29 d-men that were drafted by teams went in the top 8 (21%)

• 1- 1st Overall
• 2 - 2nd Overall
• 0 - 3rd Overall
• 1 - 4th Overall
• 1 - 5th Overall
• 1 - 6th Overall
• 0- 7th Overall
• 0 - 8th Overall

So slightly more of the forwards were drafted in the top 8 than d-man - however the majority of that difference is found in the top 3 - where 10 of the 13 forwards that were drafted by their team with a top 8 pick were selected.

Outside of the top 3 though it is pretty even though - 3 forwards vs 3 d-men.

Overall I would say if you are in the top 3 - and there isn't a stud d-man (Doughty/Ekblad type) then take the elite forward.

However in that 4-8 range it is pretty even and if anything probably favours d-men since overall more forwards go in the top 10 then d-men.

[GranteedEV]

Just heard Craig Button talking about the draft on the radio.

Said his tiers were

Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi
Dubois (said it's a "floating" ranking - implying he might drop to 5?)
Brown
Jost/Keller/Tkachuk/Nylander
Sergachyev/Juolevi/Bean/(One other D, I didn't catch if it was Chychrun or Fabbro, or maybe he said both.)

He also said that, I believe in reference to Bean or Brown when he drafted Iginla, he didn't really come to that decision until the end of the Memorial Cup and said you really can't be solidified on list too soon.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just heard Craig Button talking about the draft on the radio.

Said his tiers were

Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi
Dubois
Brown
Jost/Keller/Tkachuk/Nylander
Sergachyev/Juolevi/Bean(One other D, I didn't catch if it was Chychrun or Fabbro, or maybe he said both)

I am pretty much exactly of the same opinion, except I have Brown in the same tier as the rest of the non-Dubois forwards and I favor Fabbro over Chychrun (pretty much just off the u18's but that's all I've got).

I don't know how Brown wasn't getting hype before the u18's. He's huge, and over a point per game in the O.

[Roof-Daddy]

Uh oh. Ashasx isn't going to be happy haha

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just heard Craig Button talking about the draft on the radio.

Said his tiers were

Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi
Dubois (said it's a "floating ranking implying he might drop to 5?)
Brown
Jost/Keller/Tkachuk/Nylander
Sergachyev/Juolevi/Bean(One other D, I didn't catch if it was Chychrun or Fabbro, or maybe he said both.)

He also said that when he drafted Iginla, he didn't really come to that decision until the end of the Memorial Cup and said you really can't be solidified on list too soon.

Brown in the third tier? He had him ranked 27th just last month.