RFA Season - How much is too much

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Regorium

So you would match a 9.2M deal for Monahan?

In the extremely unlikely event of such an offer sheet, I would hope that the Flames GM would match it.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Makes me wonder why offer sheets aren't used more often. They can be used to saddle your rivals with awful contracts - considering that in general, they would overpay for their own asset.

Relationships are based on trust, and dealing in good faith. It seems to me that offer sheets go against that, and would probably do more harm than good for those indulging in it. Thankfully the rules, in general, make it too onerous in most cases.

[The Coppernian One]

Originally Posted by AC

Yes, Monahan is eligible but the Flames would match, except if a team offered a ridiculous amount.

Also keep in mind the compensation is determine not by AAV, but:


For example, a seven year contract with a cap hit of $7 million would have an offer sheet value of $9.8 million ($49m total value divided by 5) - worth four first round picks instead of a first, second and third like a five year, $7m per year contract would be.

So given this (please don't fail me now, math) the minimum amount for a contract worth four first overalls would be a contact value of $45,658,225 over 5-7 years. That would be an AAV of:
5 Years - $9,131,645
6 Years - $7,609,704
7 Years - $6,522,603

Did I do that right or should I be embarrassed?

I think matching that 7 year contract gets done easily. On a five year deal you take the picks (sorry to he poster above, but Monahan is not a $9.1M per player and the team that can afford to pay him that is likely not a good team while you're getting those picks). The six year deal is steep but probably gets matched as it's an over payment, but not grossly for a 30/30 Centre. I think it also depends on what else is in the system. Is Sean Monahan a $7.6M per year player if he's on the second line not playing with Gaudreau? What is Bennett in line for if Monahan gets $7.6?

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The reason the Penner sheet worked while the Weber, RoR, Vanek sheets failed was he got overpaid for what he brought. The Kesler and Backes sheets failed because those guys signed fair market offers that were no brainer to be matched.

Good points but the biggest reason that the Penner sheet worked is that Brian Burke had the balls to let the player walk and the other GMs didn't. As it turned out, he made the right call.

The best and maybe the only instance of an offer sheet being a good move was when the Sharks offer sheeted Hjalmarsson. The Hawks matched despite being right on the cap. The result was that the Hawks had to walk away from Niemi at arbitration. The Sharks then signed Niemi. Brilliant plan.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by AC

Also here are the list of teams that have the required draft picks to make such offer sheets:
http://www.generalfanager.com/draftpicks/offersheets

Interesting. All teams have all their own 1st round picks over the next 4 years.

[Finger Cookin]

No need to apologize. Monahan probably isn't worth being the 6th highest cap hit in the league next season. Which also means that discussing the likelihood of such an offer sheet forthcoming is almost certainly a waste of time.

[The Coppernian One]

A bit off topic, but for interest here is the NHL's offer sheet history. Obviously only the ones that were signed. It would be really interesting to know how many offers are made that don't get signed - even an unsigned off could be used as leverage in a negotiation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...d_offer_sheets

[Scornfire]

Whoa, the Blues gave up 5 first rounders for Stevens in 1990 then lost him in arbitration trying to Offer sheet Shanahan in 91? That's too funny

Edit: And THEN tried to OS Stevens again in 94?! How did I never hear about that lol

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

No need to apologize. Monahan probably isn't worth being the 6th highest cap hit in the league next season. Which also means that discussing the likelihood of such an offer sheet forthcoming is almost certainly a waste of time.

Then why would you match? If even in a hypothetical scenario you can't walk away from Monahan, then what happens if it actually occurs?

It has happened before. Vanek with his 50 million/7 yr. Weber with 120 mil/14 yr. Weber made the highest salary in the league in 2012-2013 - I don't think you would disagree if I said that Weber wasn't the best player in the league in 2012. Nor was Vanek deserving of a top 10 salary in 2007.

To give you my opinion, any offer that gives the Flames 4 first round draft picks (9.15M over 5 years) I would walk from. Anything less (9.0M over 5 years), I would reluctantly match, and hate life while doing it.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Then why would you match?

Because I don't think the compensation, and the unknown value of it 4 years out, is worth the known value of Monahan currently. Hypothetically.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Because I don't think the compensation, and the unknown value of it 4 years out, is worth the known value of Monahan currently. Hypothetically.

Fair enough.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Then why would you match? If even in a hypothetical scenario you can't walk away from Monahan, then what happens if it actually occurs?

It has happened before. Vanek with his 50 million/7 yr. Weber with 120 mil/14 yr. Weber made the highest salary in the league in 2012-2013 - I don't think you would disagree if I said that Weber wasn't the best player in the league in 2012. Nor was Vanek deserving of a top 10 salary in 2007.

To give you my opinion, any offer that gives the Flames 4 first round draft picks (9.15M over 5 years) I would walk from. Anything less (9.0M over 5 years), I would reluctantly match, and hate life while doing it.

I think BUF shouldn't have matched the Vanek offer sheet. Weber I think was fine to match. He's still a top notch d-man in the league. So big, strong and nasty to play against.

[DuckmanX]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Interesting. All teams have all their own 1st round picks over the next 4 years.

Here's hoping Dallas falls off that list next month...

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Stud_McCool

Why such random numbers? Is it some sort of percentage or something?

Yes, the numbers increase percentage-wise in step with the Salary Cap.


This is what they were when the current CBA structure was first ratified in 2005:

GROUP 2 COMPENSATION CHART OFFER SHEET COMPENSATION

• $660,000 or below : None
• Over $660,000 to $1 million : Third Round
• Over $1 million to $2.0 million : Second Round
• Over $2.0 million to $3.0 million : First Round and Third Round
• Over $3.0 million to $4.0 million : First Round, Second Round, and Third Round
• Over $4.0 million to $5.0 million : Two First Rounds, Second Round, and Third Round
• Over $5 million : Four First Rounds

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

In the extremely unlikely event of such an offer sheet, I would hope that the Flames GM would match it.

So we agree to disagree

1- Sign Mony to 9.2m by matching a offer sheet
2- Let Mony go and take 4 first round picks

You are glad I am not the GM because I take option 2 while you take option 1.
With my 9.2 m in free space I am going hard after Stamkos. Stamkos and 4 first round picks beats Mony any day of the week.

I understand the attachment we all have but this thread was a hypothetical situation and 9.2m is equal to what he most likely signs for + a 2nd line player...

[Finger Cookin]

In a hypothetical situation where Monahan gets a $9.2M offer sheet, Stamkos signs for nothing less than $15M. So good luck with going hard after him and being able to fill out your roster in the upcoming season, let alone ever signing any of those four first round picks beyond their ELCs. Whereas that $15M could be spent on Monahan, a starting goalie, and maybe a second liner. Hypothetically.

I hope that, hypothetically, the salary cap raises to about $120M under these circumstances.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think BUF shouldn't have matched the Vanek offer sheet. Weber I think was fine to match. He's still a top notch d-man in the league. So big, strong and nasty to play against.

I agree with this. I think the offer sheet from Philly forced Nashville to make a really tough decision though, which I'm arguing is the point of offer sheets. I highly doubt Nashville wanted to actually pay Weber 14 million dollars a year (ie. Nashville was lowballing Weber, and let Suter walk).

It's extremely unlikely you actually get the player, but if you do you're happy. At the same time, if you don't, you blow up their salary structure, making more assets available overall league-wide.

Nashville ended up building a pretty damn good team, but we'll have to see how Weber's massive AAV may affect them keeping a lot of their young talent in the future.

[powderjunkie]

Hypothetical Offer Sheet: in 2018 Toronto offers McDavid max money over 2-3 years (I assume max would still be 15M/year?). I think it makes sense for Toronto because it only kills their cap for a couple years as they hope they will be emerging into a contender, and then they can sign a more reasonable 8x10 or 11 deal (makes sense for McD as it takes him to age 30 for another big payday...and of course getting out of Edmonton is reward in itself, but his endorsement potential goes through the rough in Toronterrible).

Does Edmonton match that OS? It becomes clear McD wants out...can they really fetch much more than four 1sts if they try to trade him? On that contract, they'd probably only have one trade partner in Toronto interested in taking on that contract (would anyone else feel certain McD would want to stay around on a 'reasonable' long term deal afterwards?

[dying4acup]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Hypothetical Offer Sheet: in 2018 Toronto offers McDavid max money over 2-3 years (I assume max would still be 15M/year?). I think it makes sense for Toronto because it only kills their cap for a couple years as they hope they will be emerging into a contender, and then they can sign a more reasonable 8x10 or 11 deal (makes sense for McD as it takes him to age 30 for another big payday...and of course getting out of Edmonton is reward in itself, but his endorsement potential goes through the rough in Toronterrible).

Does Edmonton match that OS? It becomes clear McD wants out...can they really fetch much more than four 1sts if they try to trade him? On that contract, they'd probably only have one trade partner in Toronto interested in taking on that contract (would anyone else feel certain McD would want to stay around on a 'reasonable' long term deal afterwards?

Lol. Edmonton with 4 more 1st overalls and 4more 2nd overalls. How many careers can one franchise ruin.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Hypothetical Offer Sheet: in 2018 Toronto offers McDavid max money over 2-3 years (I assume max would still be 15M/year?). I think it makes sense for Toronto because it only kills their cap for a couple years as they hope they will be emerging into a contender, and then they can sign a more reasonable 8x10 or 11 deal (makes sense for McD as it takes him to age 30 for another big payday...and of course getting out of Edmonton is reward in itself, but his endorsement potential goes through the rough in Toronterrible)...

We're this to happen, there is no way McDavid would sign a third contract for a lower dollar figure. His next deal will set the lower threshold for what he will make on the contract to follow.