Drafting outside of the top 3 picks 2016

[flamesfan55]

I know nothing about anybody outside of the top 3

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Injury or not, Nichushkin would not be drafted where he was if your redid the 2013 draft with hindsight.

Have people already forgotten that 18 year old Nichushkin had a comparable rookie season to 18 year old Barkov and 19 year old Monahan?

Let's not write a tenth OA pick off two seasons into his career. Not like there aren't other struggling non-Russian top 10 picks from that year, like Drouin (Canadian) and Lindholm (Swedish) and Nurse (Canadian).

He's been openly complaining to the Russian media, he's underperformed, and it looks like his future isn't in Dallas.

Any they will get a kings ransom for him if they do trade him.

Gurianov as a mid-1st round pick is barely developing in the KHL and got cut from the WJC team. That's not good news for a player drafted so high.

Uh, Gurianov is one year removed from his draft. How about waiting until he establishes himself in one of the tougher leagues in the world before deciding he was a bad pick at 12th OA? In 2012 the Stars drafted a Czech forward 13th OA and he is only now making his way onto an NHL roster and you know what? He looks like a very solid pick. Did the Stars miss out on Connor or Boeser, maybe they underscouted the USHL. That doesn't mean Guryanov is a bust, not remotely.

Another 2012 draft pick, of the lightning, Nikita Gusev in his draft +1 season played six KHL games and had one assist. Guryanov in his draft +1 has played 47 KHL games. Where's Gusev now after his draft+4? He's a dominant player in the KHL who's ready to come over.

Judging any draft pick before three-five years have passed after a draft, is foolish. WHat matters is getting the best possible player, not the first player to the NHL. I bet you the Oilers would rather have Tarasenko or Kuznetsov instead of Hall, and Kucherov instead of Nugent-Hopkins, and Forsberg instead of Yakupov. But if you were jumping to conclusions one year after the draft you wouldn't arrive at that.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Have people already forgotten that 18 year old Nichushkin had a comparable rookie season to 18 year old Barkov and 19 year old Monahan?

Let's not write a tenth OA pick off two seasons into his career. Not like there aren't other struggling non-Russian top 10 picks from that year, like Drouin (Canadian) and Lindholm (Swedish) and Nurse (Canadian).



Any they will get a kings ransom for him if they do trade him.



Uh, Gurianov is one year removed from his draft. How about waiting until he establishes himself in one of the tougher leagues in the world before deciding he was a bad pick at 12th OA? In 2012 the Stars drafted a Czech forward 13th OA and he is only now making his way onto an NHL roster and you know what? He looks like a very solid pick. Did the Stars miss out on Connor or Boeser, maybe they underscouted the USHL. That doesn't mean Guryanov is a bust, not remotely.

Another 2012 draft pick, of the lightning, Nikita Gusev in his draft +1 season played six KHL games and had one assist. Guryanov in his draft +1 has played 47 KHL games. Where's Gusev now after his draft+4? He's a dominant player in the KHL who's ready to come over.

Judging any draft pick before three-five years have passed after a draft, is foolish. WHat matters is getting the best possible player, not the first player to the NHL. I bet you the Oilers would rather have Tarasenko or Kuznetsov instead of Hall, and Kucherov instead of Nugent-Hopkins, and Forsberg instead of Yakupov. But if you were jumping to conclusions one year after the draft you wouldn't arrive at that.

I never called these players busts, but I can make comparisons relative to their draft position and other players that were picked around them.

Slice it however you want, Gurianov had a bad year. 1st rounders should not be getting cut from from WJCs like Russia. They shouldn't be playing 4th line minutes in the KHL.

That's not to say you can't find your Tarasenkos and Kuznetsovs, but they were also playing much bigger roles and producing at much higher rates than Gurianov at younger ages.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I never called these players busts, but I can make comparisons relative to their draft position and other players that were picked around them.

Players picked around Guryanov:

Meier - Followed up a 1.48 PPG junior season with a 1.67 PPG junior season

Raantanen - Moved from the SM-Liiga to the AHL. Played 9 pointless NHL games.

Crouse - Followed up a 0.911 PPG junior season with a 1.27 PPG junior season

Guryanov - Followed up an 8 KHL GP season with a 47 KHL GP season

Zboril - Followed up a 0.75 PPG junior season with a 0.4 PPG junior season

DeBrusk - Followed up a 1.125 PPG junior season with a 1.06 PPG junior season

Senyshyn - Followed up a 0.68 PPG junior season with a 0.985 PPG junior season

The only players picked within three spots of Guryanov who did anything of note were Meier and Raantanen. Meier played in Junior, which can't be compared to a pro league, and Raantanen, while a great AHL season, still failed to stick on a thin Avs roster.

Again, though, it's too early to judge any of these players.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Players picked around Guryanov:

Meier - Followed up a 1.48 PPG junior season with a 1.67 PPG junior season

Raantanen - Moved from the SM-Liiga to the AHL. Played 9 pointless NHL games.

Crouse - Followed up a 0.911 PPG junior season with a 1.27 PPG junior season

Guryanov - Followed up an 8 KHL GP season with a 47 KHL GP season

Zboril - Followed up a 0.75 PPG junior season with a 0.4 PPG junior season

DeBrusk - Followed up a 1.125 PPG junior season with a 1.06 PPG junior season

Senyshyn - Followed up a 0.68 PPG junior season with a 0.985 PPG junior season

The only players picked within three spots of Guryanov who did anything of note were Meier and Raantanen. Meier played in Junior, which can't be compared to a pro league, and Raantanen, while a great AHL season, still failed to stick on a thin Avs roster.

Again, though, it's too early to judge any of these players.

And I'd take all of those players (besides perhaps the 3 Bruins picks, but who knows what happened that day) before Gurianov. I'd also take the next 6-10 after the Boston 3.

I suppose we can agree to disagree. I never understood the pick at the time with Connor and Barzal still on the board, and today I understand it less.

[shotinthebacklund]

I vote Mcleod. I see a great fit for flames in particular.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Man we sure have discussed McLeod a lot for the 2/133 ppl wanting us to draft him Vocal minority clearly.

[Calgary4LIfe]

For me, easily Dubois. Size, speed, skill, tenacity and fairly physical - will compliment any line he is on.

A bit of a gap after that - not much, but a small gap.

Tkachuk next for me. Need a finisher who can dig pucks out of the corner and keep up with the skilled players. Tkachuk can do that. Call him a complimentary piece all you like, but he will make the Flames harder to play against in the long run, and fit really nicely either with Monahan and Gaudreau, or Bennett and whomever.

Then a larger gap for me.

Chychrun is next. FDW brought this up a few times - but he would make for a unique defensive prospect. Physical and skilled. Hickey kind of comes close to that, but he is not a sure thing, and he is not as physical either. Drops way down to Rafikov in terms of having that all-around package - but Rafikov is even less of a sure thing, and his offensive ceiling is way lower anyways. Andersson is a bit physical - but not like Chychrun.

After that, it is Juolevi/Sergachev for me. Higher-end defencemen. Look to be solid #2 defencemen upside.

Nylander is probably next for me - he should be higher based on the Flames' needs, but he is simply not strong enough or physical enough for me, and he goes through stretches of not producing - not a fan of inconsistency, which is why I love Dubois.

I am not even sure McLeod is next. I have him in the next group of players, and I make like some other guys more here. Why am I not too high on McLeod? He is Mike Fisher 2.0 for me - something that is very valuable, but organizationally as the Flames stand now, not a need now or going forward. I can't think of a more 'Mike Fisher' type prospect from the last few drafts actually - I am sure there are some, but none come to mind as strongly as he does. I mean, he would be a great prospect to have, without question, and I think he is the sort of player that can do a lot of heavy lifting against top lines down the road. I just don't think that with Backlund in the organization, along with Jankowski who has been very good defensively for the Friars and for his short stint on the Heat, as well as a bunch of other 3rd and 4th liners in the system - I don't think McLeod would be a good fit organizationally.

At most, McLeod could potentially replace someone and would even be an upgrade (and cheaper with the number of cost-controlled years - which is important), but there are bigger holes on this team from an offensive standpoint for the wings. I would be all over McLeod if the Flames didn't have Backlund at least, or were a bit weaker up the middle. I see him as a slightly lower scoring but much faster and more defensively responsible Horvat since this board has had lengthy discussion on him. I just see Mike Fisher - a really good player that does a lot of heavy lifting, but someone that you have difficulty including in the 'core' down the road, but also difficulty not including in the core as well, if you follow.

Flames are drafting fairly high this draft - they need skill and a guy that most would consider a 'core piece', not an upgrade to something the Flames already have who could be an upgrade at best.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Whoa whoa there. Nichushkin was drafted tenth, why would he not be drafted there if the draft was re-done? Domi? Nothing there dictates Domi will catch or Match Nichushkin next season. Wennberg? Lazar? No. You re-do the draft I think he end up right where he went. 10th. .

Domi has a superior PPG - I don't know how you don't draft him ahead of Nich.

Re-draft!
1. Barkov
2. Mackinnon
3. Jones
4. Monahan
5. Ristolainen
6. Lindholm
7. Domi
8. Duclair
9. Horvat
10. Nurse
11. Drouin
12. Wennberg
13. Burakowsky
14. Lazar
15. Nich

Nich probably goes in the 11-15 area but could drop further.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Man we sure have discussed McLeod a lot for the 2/133 ppl wanting us to draft him Vocal minority clearly.

Just a little smug eh Jennifer?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Domi has a superior PPG - I don't know how you don't draft him ahead of Nich.

Re-draft!
1. Barkov
2. Mackinnon
3. Jones
4. Monahan
5. Ristolainen
6. Lindholm
7. Domi
8. Horvat
9. Nurse
10. Drouin

Nich probably goes in the 11-15 area but could drop further.

Dallas plays a lot like the Flames in that you are going to see career years from a lot of offensive players and the fact that he's struggled is a bit of a red flag for me. I would take Wennberg over him as well who did well these season despite playing on a train wreck of a team.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Dallas plays a lot like the Flames in that you are going to see career years from a lot of offensive players and the fact that he's struggled is a bit of a red flag for me. I would take Wennberg over him as well who did well these season despite playing on a train wreck of a team.

Yeah you've got a few guys who aren't putting up gawdy offensive totals but play solid 2 way games: Lazar, Wenneberg and Burakowsky. Do those guys go ahead of Nish in a re-draft? I bet they do.

Duclair probably also goes top 15, and ahead of Nich. I forgot about him in the above. Adjusted above to reflect. I have Nich at 15 now.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Just a little smug eh Jennifer?

Eh, not really. Just more interesting to see a poll finally and see how many people actually like McLeod best. It's hard to tell from our draft thread, seemed like a few people were really big on him. He hasn't looked like a top 10 pick so far this U18 but he's got time to turn it around.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Eh, not really. Just more interesting to see a poll finally and see how many people actually like McLeod best. It's hard to tell from our draft thread, seemed like a few people were really big on him. He hasn't looked like a top 10 pick so far this U18 but he's got time to turn it around.

I wonder if McLeods line ends up being the covering line on Puljujarvi.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Domi has a superior PPG - I don't know how you don't draft him ahead of Nich.

By that same vein though shouldn't your top three then be:

1)Mackinnon
2)Monahan
3)Barkov

Personally even 3 years post draft I have a hard time seeing any major difference between those 3. Each of them has clearly had a season better than the other two Mackinnon in the rookie season, Monahan last season, and Barkov this season.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Bold will be busts, italics will be disappointing players who still ended up NHLers.

2003 - Fleury (1st), Steve Bernier (16th), MA Pouliot (22nd)
2004 - Picard (8th)
2005 - Crosby (1st), Bourdon (10th), Zagrapan (13th), Bourret (16th)
NOTE: Bourdon died before becoming an NHLer but was a good prospect
2006 - Brassard (6th), Sheppard (9th), Jonathan Bernier (11th), Giroux (22nd), Vishnevsky (27th)
2007 - Voracek (7th), MacMillan (19th), Esposito (20th), Perron (26th)
2008 - No one
2009 - Kulikov (14th), Paradis (27th), Depres (30th)
2010 - Gormley (13th)
2011 - Huberdeau (3rd), Couturier (8th), Beaulieu (17th), Danault (26th), Phillips (28th)

Probably a little premature to judge any of the newer drafts fully. Bit of a mixed bag. I'm sure we'd find a ton of busts from all areas in the 2nd half the first round. There are a bunch of top 10 busts too but same could be said of most regions.

I don't think QMJHL is more risky overall. 2011 4/5 players taken looks like solid NHLers, that's actually a very good success rate. There's still some solid picks there like Giroux, Voracek, Huberdeau, Couturier, Perron, Crosby, Brassard, Fleury, Depres, Beaulieu. I don't think avoiding the league completely is a smart or well thought out suggestion.

I get the hesitancy to draft high out of the Q but your data also shows a significant success rate for the top player(s) out of the first round.

In the case of Dubois, you also have to factor in his age and the success he has had already.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I wonder if McLeods line ends up being the covering line on Puljujarvi.

Commentators saying they think the Howden line is the one the coaches want matched up against Puljujarvi

[Yamer]

Dubois always turns into a stud in NHL 16, so...yeah.

There is no fault in this logic.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Eh, not really. Just more interesting to see a poll finally and see how many people actually like McLeod best. It's hard to tell from our draft thread, seemed like a few people were really big on him. He hasn't looked like a top 10 pick so far this U18 but he's got time to turn it around.

I wonder how many bothered to watch these guys play or if the votes are based off of information from draft preview articles? That would be interesting to know. All I can say is that every time I watched the Steelheads I was blown away by McLeod and underwhelmed by Nylander. That wasn't a shot a Nylander either. McLeod was just that much more noticeable and impressive.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

I wonder how many bothered to watch these guys play or if the votes are based off of information from draft preview articles? That would be interesting to know. All I can say is that every time I watched the Steelheads I was blown away by McLeod and underwhelmed by Nylander. That wasn't a shot a Nylander either. McLeod was just that much more noticeable and impressive.

Maybe neither of them should be considered for our pick? Hopefully we get to see a Sweden game at these U18s