It's never going to be an actual race. Bernie is done, he'd need a Golden State Warrior-esque run just to make it close, let alone actually win. It's a nice narrative but has it not been laid out pretty clearly that this is over? Maybe I'm too big a fan of Nate Silver but barring the boogeyman of an indictment that isn't happening Bernie is only serving to keep the media and the right from focusing too strongly on Hillary.
I think that is correct as well.
Any chance Bernie could be on the Hillary ticket as VP? I assume they may want a different demographic, but he does offer an interesting perspective and seems popular with the younger crowd.
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From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
They have to go younger for a VP. The VP is theoretically their candidate for the 2024 race. No offense to Bernie but I expect he'll be dirt napping by that point. Corey Booker I suspect is the prime target for VP.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Trump is expected to win New York easily, and he needs it given that he has taken a bit of a hit recently from Cruz (see: Wyoming). However, he is off his pace a bit, so likely needs a "YUGE" win here. New York awards 14 delegates proportionally statewide with a 50% winner take all trigger, and 3 delegates per congressional district, also proportional, but all 3 go to any candidate with 50% of that district. What that means is that if he hits the 50% mark statewide (and it looks like he will) AND his vote is reasonably efficient, he could win big.
Sanders and Clinton will be closer, but not much. Look for Clinton to win New York by 10-15 points.
Hah. Well every bit helps I guess? In the end, I don't think it made any difference, and honestly I didn't even remember that it happened until now.
In fairness, I feel the same way about actors and other celebrities endorsing politicians. I couldn't possibly care less about George Clooney's political affiliations, for instance, though he seems to think everyone should.
So Clinton and the DNC are now being accused of blatant campaign finance violations on top of all the other stuff. Basically it amounts to the fact Clinton is actively taking donations far in excess of the legally allowed limits by having the DNC launder the money into her campaign through the Hillary Victory Fund. The price set for the George Clooney fundraiser was not coincidental. And this is only what we know about.
Shady as hell. To quote people online about the math.
Quote:
So the Hillary Victory Fund is this:
The DNC, Hillary campaign, and 32 states.
Voter donation limits to individual campaigns are $2700
Limit Donation to a state Democratic Party is: $10000 per state
Max donation to the DNC is: $33,400 to the dollar.
32 states have a "stake" in her victory fund, meaning they are looking for a return on their investment.
What Hillary is doing currently is having people donating $10000 to each state through this victory fund, and $33400 to the DNC. But the issue is, that most of the money is going into this fund for her campaign, but she promises these states and the DNC a senate majority. That is why superdelegates pledged so early on. This is where the problem is. It is laundering money through this fund into her campaign.
Let's calculate this: $10000 x 32 states = $320,000
$320,000 + $33400 max donation to the DNC = WHAT DO YA KNOW? $353,400.
Think that Clooney dinner donation price was a coincidence?
Edit: She bought the loyalty of superdelegates before Bernie even announced his candidacy, and it's said she funneled more than maximum into her campaign as it stands. That's where the issue is.
And yet Bernie didn't go to the FEC and instead went to the DNC and of course the media. If there were any serious grounds here he would have gone to the FEC, but this obviously is more about New York looking like a double digit loss than anything. Gotta keep the anger going that Hillary is corrupt and evil to keep those donations coming in, because it's hard to fund raise off "Our impossible path to the nomination just got even more impossible, please send $27!"
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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And yet Bernie didn't go to the FEC and instead went to the DNC and of course the media. If there were any serious grounds here he would have gone to the FEC, but this obviously is more about New York looking like a double digit loss than anything. Gotta keep the anger going that Hillary is corrupt and evil to keep those donations coming in, because it's hard to fund raise off "Our impossible path to the nomination just got even more impossible, please send $27!"
Because the FEC chair has stated she can literally do nothing about this. Where else do you go at this point except to the voters?
Quote:
WASHINGTON — The leader of the Federal Election Commission, the agency charged with regulating the way political money is raised and spent, says she has largely given up hope of reining in abuses in the 2016 presidential campaign, which could generate a record $10 billion in spending.
“The likelihood of the laws being enforced is slim,” Ann M. Ravel, the chairwoman, said in an interview. “I never want to give up, but I’m not under any illusions. People think the F.E.C. is dysfunctional. It’s worse than dysfunctional.”
Her unusually frank assessment reflects a worsening stalemate among the agency’s six commissioners. They are perpetually locked in 3-to-3 ties along party lines on key votes because of a fundamental disagreement over the mandate of the commission, which was created 40 years ago in response to the political corruption of Watergate.
An article from 11 months ago isn't exactly the best source. He can still file a complaint, it's not hard and even if its unlikely the succeed...well his current campaign is unlikely to succeed yet he presses on there too. So why not file the complaint if he's serious? Probably because he's not and this is more about painting her as corrupt and evil. Of note, Bernie complained about this and....immediately sent out a fundraising e-mail based off this.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
I think it's fair for him to point it out. It may be (I don't know) that the FEC has looked at it and decided that since it complies with the letter of the law their hands are tied. But politics is not a nice business, and there is nothing stopping Bernie from pointing out that it violates the spirit of the law by permitting donations to the DNC, and indirectly to Hillary, of over $300,000.
With that said, I don't disagree that he is trying to change the narrative a bit. He is likely going to lose New York, and fall further behind in delegates. There will be a drumbeat starting soon for him to drop out and let the party unify.
Mind you, Hillary stayed in long past her expiration date against Obama, so she doesn't have a ton of moral high ground on that point.
I think if he loses all five of the NE closed primaries in the next week the calls will be pretty strong to drop out, but at that point it's up to his supporters as to when he drops out. If he does lose them all I suspect his supporters blame the establishment or some conspiracy to steal the nomination from Bernie through voter suppression (or whatever their excuse will be by that point), and they'll keep donating. As long as he has cash, he has no incentive to drop out.
But at some point he's going to have to make a very convincing case that he should be the nominee even though he's likely to lose the delegate race and the popular vote. His only play I suppose is pointing to the hypothetical general matchups, but obviously that's a very weak case.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Yeah this is pretty shocking and not in the way Bernie supporters were hoping. NYC came up huge for Hillary, she's dominating everywhere there and destroyed him 76-24% with the black vote. I assume it closes a little but mid teens loss is probably best case scenario now for Bernie.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
