I'm trying to keep in mind that this is Marner's video, so Tkachuk isn't the focus, but to be honest, this video doesn't really dispel concerns that Tkachuk's numbers are inflated by playing with Marner and Dvorak. I would say that on the majority of those highlights the play was driven by Marner, or Marner and Dvorak.
That isn't to say that Tkachuk is mediocre or not a first round pick or anything, but I do not think that it is unreasonable to wonder if he would be considered a top 5 pick if he played in a different situation.
My opinion is about as amateur as it gets since I have only seen Tkachuk at the WJC's and in highlights, but if the Flames don't win the lottery I am hoping that they select Pierre Luc Dubois. He's got a hell of a one-timer and I like how he drives to the net with the puck.
(Actual highlights start at 3:56)
Tkachuk is a good player, but I don't see the high end skill there. From highlights, he is skilled for sure, but doesn't look like he has that elite finishing ability. Having said that, he could be a great linemate for Gaudreau, Monahan, and Bennett and would be a very good complimentary piece for the top 6.
As for Dubois, the stats (points and size) are very intriguing, but I'm always wary of QMJHL players. You just never know with them. Watching Poirier in his draft and draft plus 1 season made me think he was a blue chip prospect, but after two minor pro seasons, he looks more like a 3rd liner. I also can't recall the last really good prospect to come out of the QMJHL. Mackinnon has been alright, but I think most expected more from the no. 1 overall. Drouin has had trouble adjusting, same for Mantha. Those were all from 2013. From 2014, Ehlers looks ok and there weren't even many high picks from the Q in 2015. The question for me is, are the QMJHL top prospects as good as their stats suggest, or are they just playing against inferior competition?
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I'm trying to keep in mind that this is Marner's video, so Tkachuk isn't the focus, but to be honest, this video doesn't really dispel concerns that Tkachuk's numbers are inflated by playing with Marner and Dvorak. I would say that on the majority of those highlights the play was driven by Marner, or Marner and Dvorak.
That isn't to say that Tkachuk is mediocre or not a first round pick or anything, but I do not think that it is unreasonable to wonder if he would be considered a top 5 pick if he played in a different situation.
Tkachuk doesn't drive the play for the most part. But he demonstrates he's an elite complimentary player. This video shows that he isn't just racking up points playing with far superior players but instead that he's very skilled and helps that line click as much as his teammates. Great shot, great playmaking but he makes his linemates better by doing the dirty work. He'll dish the puck off and then drive the net taking two defenders with him. A good number of the Marner goals were scored with Tkachuk screening the goalie and screens are essential in the NHL to create offense. He floats to the side of the net giving his linemates an option for a back door play. He has the skill and playmaking to find his linemates driving to the net. He has the finish to convert on beautiful passes. He can beat a defenceman with dekes.
The style that Tkachuk plays is EXACTLY the style of play that would compliment Gaudreau/Monahan. He'd be a great fit with Bennett too.
As for Dubois I really like him too. Can't decide if I like Tkachuk or Dubois better
Last edited by Flames Draft Watcher; 04-18-2016 at 01:37 PM.
Tkachuk is a good player, but I don't see the high end skill there. From highlights, he is skilled for sure, but doesn't look like he has that elite finishing ability. Having said that, he could be a great linemate for Gaudreau, Monahan, and Bennett and would be a very good complimentary piece for the top 6.
As for Dubois, the stats (points and size) are very intriguing, but I'm always wary of QMJHL players. You just never know with them. Watching Poirier in his draft and draft plus 1 season made me think he was a blue chip prospect, but after two minor pro seasons, he looks more like a 3rd liner. I also can't recall the last really good prospect to come out of the QMJHL. Mackinnon has been alright, but I think most expected more from the no. 1 overall. Drouin has had trouble adjusting, same for Mantha. Those were all from 2013. From 2014, Ehlers looks ok and there weren't even many high picks from the Q in 2015. The question for me is, are the QMJHL top prospects as good as their stats suggest, or are they just playing against inferior competition?
Agreed on the Q. I hope they stay clear of prospects from the Q in the 1st round. Seems like they rarely live up to expectations lately.
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I'm hoping for Dubois as well if we don't win a lottery ball and it seems like we would have a decent shot of landing him as long as we don't have bad luck and get pushed back to 6 or 7.
I'm hoping for Dubois as well if we don't win a lottery ball and it seems like we would have a decent shot of landing him as long as we don't have bad luck and get pushed back to 6 or 7.
Something doesn't add up there. If we don't win the lottery then we're almost guaranteed to pick 6th or 7th. Don't know how you could call it bad luck to move back to 6th or 7th when that is by far the most likely outcome.
Hard to say if we'd have a decent chance of landing Dubois at 6 or 7. Really depends on where the d-men end up going this draft. Which really depends on the draft lottery results and which teams end up in the 4/5/6/7 spots.
As for Dubois, the stats (points and size) are very intriguing, but I'm always wary of QMJHL players. You just never know with them. Watching Poirier in his draft and draft plus 1 season made me think he was a blue chip prospect, but after two minor pro seasons, he looks more like a 3rd liner. I also can't recall the last really good prospect to come out of the QMJHL. Mackinnon has been alright, but I think most expected more from the no. 1 overall. Drouin has had trouble adjusting, same for Mantha. Those were all from 2013. From 2014, Ehlers looks ok and there weren't even many high picks from the Q in 2015. The question for me is, are the QMJHL top prospects as good as their stats suggest, or are they just playing against inferior competition?
Good point that I didn't really consider. The full combination of his skill and size is something that Flames could really use though. Haven't watched enough of him to really know but it looks like he at least uses his size and the Flames could definitely use some more physicality.
As for Dubois, the stats (points and size) are very intriguing, but I'm always wary of QMJHL players. You just never know with them. Watching Poirier in his draft and draft plus 1 season made me think he was a blue chip prospect, but after two minor pro seasons, he looks more like a 3rd liner. I also can't recall the last really good prospect to come out of the QMJHL. Mackinnon has been alright, but I think most expected more from the no. 1 overall. Drouin has had trouble adjusting, same for Mantha. Those were all from 2013. From 2014, Ehlers looks ok and there weren't even many high picks from the Q in 2015. The question for me is, are the QMJHL top prospects as good as their stats suggest, or are they just playing against inferior competition?
I am not remotely concerned about Dubois playing in the Q. At worst it means he'll need some development time, not unlike other 18 year old prospects. The ceiling there is that of a star player who can take over game individually in all three zones.
And McKinnon/Ehlers have been fine. McKinnon has probably been mishandled by Roy and co but he did score 60+ as an 18 year old, that just does not happen (even Jack Eichel at 19 fell short of the 60 mark) Ehlers had a comparable rookie season to Sam Bennett offensively.
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Something doesn't add up there. If we don't win the lottery then we're almost guaranteed to pick 6th or 7th. Don't know how you could call it bad luck to move back to 6th or 7th when that is by far the most likely outcome.
Hard to say if we'd have a decent chance of landing Dubois at 6 or 7. Really depends on where the d-men end up going this draft. Which really depends on the draft lottery results and which teams end up in the 4/5/6/7 spots.
Yes I knew someone would bring up the odds. Call it what you want. I'm only accepting a move up until reality tells me otherwise.
Something interesting about this draft is that the forward rankings seem to be fairly consistent but the difference of opinion on the d-men is crazy this year. Let's take a closer look at the disparity in opinion
Chychrun:
-5th by Redline, they say he's in their clearcut top 5 grouping with Tkachuk and the big 3
-4th by Future Considerations
-7th by ISS but still the top d-man
-4th in NA by CSS but still the top d-man
-2nd by The Draft Analyst
-10th by McKeen's, 3rd best d-man
-9th by hockeyprospect.com, 3rd best d-man
-9th by Craig Button, 2nd best d-man
-5th by Bob Mackenzie's Midterm Rankings
So the majority of scouting services still think he's the top d-men
Sergachev:
-10th by Redline, 4th best d-man
-8th by FC, 2nd best d-man
-8th by ISS, 2nd best d-man
-8th in NA by CSS, 4th best d-man
-10th by The Draft Analyst, 3rd best d-man
-9th by McKeen's, 2nd best d-man
-8th by hockeyprospect.com, 2nd best d-man
-10th by Craig Button, 3rd best d-man
-12th by Bob Mackenzie's Midterm Rankings, 4th best d-man
No one seems to think he's the top d-man but he's right up there with the rest consistently
Olli Juolevi:
-Not one of Redline's top 4 d-men, not in their top 10
-12th by FC, 3rd best d-man
-10th by ISS, 3rd best d-man
-5th in NA by CSS, 2nd best d-man
-8th by The Draft Analyst, 2nd best d-man
-5th by McKeen's, top d-man
-7th by hockeyprospect.com, top d-man
-7th by Craig Button, top d-man
-7th by Bob Mackenzie's Midterm Rankings, 2nd best d-man
Some people think he's best, some think 2nd best, some think 3rd
Charlie McAvoy:
-not in Redline's top 4 d-men, not in their top 10
-15th by FC, 4th best d-man
-21st by ISS, 5th best d-man
-6th in NA by CSS, 3rd best d-man
-27th by The Draft Analyst, 5th best d-man
-11th by McKeen's, 4th best d-man
-14th by hockeyprospect.com, 5th best d-man
-22nd by Craig Button, 7th best d-man
-14th by Bob Mackenzie's Midterm Rankings, 5th best d-man
All over the place.
Jake Bean:
-7th by Redline, 2nd best d-man
-16th by FC, 5th best d-man
-15th by ISS, 4th best d-man
-15th in NA by CSS, 5th best d-man
-30th by The Draft Analyst, 6th best d-man
-12th by McKeen's, 5th best d-man
-17th by hockeyprospect.com, 6th best d-man
-11th by Craig Button, 4th best d-man
-11th by Bob Mackenzie's Midterm Rankings, 3rd best d-man
All over the place. Whichever team wants an offensive defenseman may pick him up
Dante Fabbro:
-9th by Redline, 3rd best d-man
-21st by FC, 6th best d-man
-not in the 1st round by ISS, not in their top 5 dmen. Not sure how they only have 5 dmen in their first round, seems unlikely that few would go
-18th in NA by CSS, 6th best d-man
-21st by The Draft Analyst, 4th best d-man
-not in the 1st round by McKeen's, not in their top 9 dmen
-12th by hockey prospect.com, 4th best d-man
-12th by Craig Button, 5th best d-man
-17th by Bob Mackenzie's Midterm Rankings, 6th best dman
Wow, huge difference of opinion here. Kind of expected since he plays in the BCHL in Penticton and often scouts disagree on how well players playing at a lower level can translate their game. You've got to wonder how much the smaller scouting services actually scouted him in the BCHL or if their opinion is based mostly on tournaments.
IMO the d-men are the most unpredictable element of this draft and is the most interesting aspect to watch.
Chance to go top 5-6 IMO: Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev
Chance to go top 10-12 IMO: All of the above
If teams start drafting these guys early then it may start a run on them. It may very affect which forwards drop to the 6-10 range.
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Watching the caps game right now and seeing ovie set up for the one timer made me want to run the simulator. Its been a while since I have run it and wanted to give it one turn and see what happened.
Canadians - Flames - Leafs
I don't see this video helping your argument. There are 116 scoring events in this video. Of them, 22 goals belong to Tkachuk, but many of them are wide open nets generated by Marner and Dvorak, or being parked in front of the net on the PP. 18 of the events are primary assists for Tkachuk. 58 of the events Tkachuk was not on the scoresheet or not a part of. The majority of the play was drive by Marner and Dvorak. In fact, that twosome continued to be effective without Tkachuk on the line.
You may also want to consider that 22 of Tkachuk's 30 goals were shown in this sequence, meaning Marner was in on each of them. That also means that Tkachuk scored only 8 goals the rest of the season that Marner was NOT directly involved in or earned a point on. 8 goals scored without Marner's involvement versus 58 scoring events (half of Marner's events) where Tkachuk was not involved. I think that speaks to the type of player he is. I'd be somewhat disappointed if we drafted Tkachuk just because he doesn't display a single skill at the elite level. He could develop into a solid player, but drafting this high I Would hope we get a player that can do something at the elite level.
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I don't see this video helping your argument. There are 116 scoring events in this video. Of them, 22 goals belong to Tkachuk, but many of them are wide open nets generated by Marner and Dvorak, or being parked in front of the net on the PP. 18 of the events are primary assists for Tkachuk. 58 of the events Tkachuk was not on the scoresheet or not a part of. The majority of the play was drive by Marner and Dvorak. In fact, that twosome continued to be effective without Tkachuk on the line.
You may also want to consider that 22 of Tkachuk's 30 goals were shown in this sequence, meaning Marner was in on each of them. That also means that Tkachuk scored only 8 goals the rest of the season that Marner was NOT directly involved in or earned a point on. 8 goals scored without Marner's involvement versus 58 scoring events (half of Marner's events) where Tkachuk was not involved. I think that speaks to the type of player he is. I'd be somewhat disappointed if we drafted Tkachuk just because he doesn't display a single skill at the elite level. He could develop into a solid player, but drafting this high I Would hope we get a player that can do something at the elite level.
Tkachuk is an elite complimentary player. He's an elite playmaker. He's elite at going to the net without the puck. He can play with highly skilled players and make them better. I don't see how Marner setting up his goals is a bad thing at all. We have Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett who all look like elite playmakers/finishers like Marner is. Marner looks better in that video because of Tkachuk. Tkachuk dishes off to Marner, crashes the net and takes two defenders with him. That opens the ice up for Marner. Tkachuk screened for many of the Marner goals. At the NHL level you often cannot score without a screen. When Marner has the puck, Tkachuk gets open on the side of the net, he shows excellent instincts for both receiving and setting up passes across the crease and in the slot.
Think for a minute about what type of player you'd want to play with Gaudreau/Monahan. You don't want someone who wants to hog the puck. You do want someone who will drive the net. You do want someone who will win board battles. And that someone needs to be highly skilled in order to set up Gaudreau/Monahan and finish when they set them up. It's not always easy to find a player who compliments two highly skilled guys and will do the dirty work for them. We tried almost everyone possible on the roster and arguably Ferland looked the best. Well Tkachuk is like a much, much more skilled version of Ferland, probably less of a hitter. Gaudreau can't win many board or net front battles. Monahan doesn't excel in that area either. Tkachuk does. His strengths are their weaknesses. He would compliment their skill set.
The video proved my point just fine. Tkachuk is not a low skilled player who only picked up points because Marner and Dvorak were on his line like some are suggesting. He contributes a lot to that line's success. Now maybe you just don't appreciate complimentary players to the degree you should?
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I haven't been impressed with Chychrun and after that give away, I hope we don't take him.
Yeah, that was hilariously bad. One play can't define a prospect though. However, I have been really impressed with Fabbro during the u18s. He loos like a RH Brodie. So calm and composed.
