2016 NHL Draft

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

Strong point about how it's a marginal issue, relative to all potential things that can go wrong... My counter point is it only becomes a factor in the mostly costly of circumstances (ie. Player develops as well as could be expected)

It really only becomes a factor if the player develops as well as could be expected and doesn't sign before their 4th year.

If a prospect becomes too good for the NCAA by his 2nd or 3rd year, is he going to languish in college for another year or two when he could be on his way to establishing his pro hockey career, just to go UFA? Highly unlikely.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

So Tkachuck can switch positions but McLeod can't? I think the team drafts the player that meets the criteria they have used over the past few years. Character and skill come first. I would think interviews are going to mean a lot in this draft since so many players are so close in skill level. And I do believe that the team will address the right handed shot issue. They went out and did it on the blue line so I can't see them not doing it in the forward ranks.

Tkachuk switching from LW to RW isn't really switching positions, they are both winger slots and as I I've said I've seen many, many, many wingers switch sides in the history of the NHL without a problem. What does LW/RW really mean? It's where you line up for the face-offs. It's which defenseman you are supposed to cover in your own blue line. Outside of that wingers are apt to move all over the ice and thus the designation between LW/RW doesn't hold that much meaning IMO. As for character I think Tkachuk's is high so that should have him high on the Flames list too.

Switching someone from centre to wing is a complete change of position. Certainly it is done at times but you have to see what their strengths are. Attributes that are good on the wing include speed, winning board battles, great shot. Attributes that are good at centre include two-way play, playmaking, face-offs, basically most of the things that McLeod excels at. I think McLeod's skill set makes him a natural centre. Some scouts have said Tkachuk could actually make a good centre as well because of his smarts and playmaking.

They addressed right shot d-men through signings (Wideman, Nakladal) and trade (Hamilton.) I suspect we'll sign or trade for a RWer and solve the issue that way.

They can't prioritize getting a right shot player in the draft over picking the best player, that would be stupid. Laine, Puljujarvi, Nylander and McLeod are the only 4 right shooters talked about as top 10 picks at this point. So if we don't win the lottery there is a very good chance we don't pick a right shooter this draft with our 1st rounder. I can't see the fact that McLeod shoots right moving him up on the Flames list significantly at all. I don't think right shooting is going to be a big deal at all to the Flames scouts. It's nice to have, it'd be a bonus but their list will not be based around it.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

That was my assumption...thanks.

With that in mind, how come teams don't shy away from drafting college bound players?

I know it's not a frequent occurrence, but with there being so little difference in the likelihood of players developing, why have the pressure of that extra factor?

Nashville got burned this offseason (or so it appears)...as well it looks like the Canucks might, as well.

Seems like an unnecessary risk, to me.

Thoughts?

Well if you pick a kid high he's probably closer to turning pro so it's easier to convince him to come out. Most players drafted in the first round out of college only play a year or two in college and then they sign and turn pro. So they'd cost themselves 2-3 years of pro wages by waiting to become UFAs.

Overall the risk isn't super high most of the time. And there's risk with drafting players that aren't in college as we saw with Tom Erixon wanting to re-enter the draft and not sign with us. College is producing a lot of players right now so you can't avoid drafting players from that route completely, that would be cutting yourself off from some of the best prospects in the draft. There's a small risk but these exceptions (Vesey) are exceptions and not the norm.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Tkachuk switching from LW to RW isn't really switching positions, they are both winger slots and as I I've said I've seen many, many, many wingers switch sides in the history of the NHL without a problem. What does LW/RW really mean? It's where you line up for the face-offs. It's which defenseman you are supposed to cover in your own blue line. Outside of that wingers are apt to move all over the ice and thus the designation between LW/RW doesn't hold that much meaning IMO. As for character I think Tkachuk's is high so that should have him high on the Flames list too.

I take it you've never played hockey? The difference between wings doesn't vary much from a coverage point of view, but it is completely different from a physical point of view. Why do you think you have a right handed defense man on the right side and a lefty on the left? All the same things apply to forwards, but are amplified because of the speed up front. Taking all pucks around the boards on you backhand is certain to lead to bad possession stats and a lot of broken noses from being planted head first into the boards. The foot work used to play your off wing is much more difficult and usually only comes from playing it for years. It is not a simple change otherwise you'd see more lefties playing the right side.

Switching someone from centre to wing is a complete change of position. Certainly it is done at times but you have to see what their strengths are. Attributes that are good on the wing include speed, winning board battles, great shot. Attributes that are good at centre include two-way play, playmaking, face-offs, basically most of the things that McLeod excels at. I think McLeod's skill set makes him a natural centre. Some scouts have said Tkachuk could actually make a good centre as well because of his smarts and playmaking.

Switching from center to wing is much easier, especially if you have to dexterity advantage. The coverage is less complex and you don't have the same level of responsibilities. This happens all the time at all levels of hockey.

They addressed right shot d-men through signings (Wideman, Nakladal) and trade (Hamilton.) I suspect we'll sign or trade for a RWer and solve the issue that way.

This is true but you can't always rely on trading for weaknesses in your system. You have to draft them as well. You can bet the Flames were exceptionally happy when they got Rasmussen Andersson to address that weakness long term. Same should apply to the forwards.

They can't prioritize getting a right shot player in the draft over picking the best player, that would be stupid. Laine, Puljujarvi, Nylander and McLeod are the only 4 right shooters talked about as top 10 picks at this point. So if we don't win the lottery there is a very good chance we don't pick a right shooter this draft with our 1st rounder. I can't see the fact that McLeod shoots right moving him up on the Flames list significantly at all. I don't think right shooting is going to be a big deal at all to the Flames scouts. It's nice to have, it'd be a bonus but their list will not be based around it.

The Flames can build their draft list any way they want. Just because the basement bloggers suggest the draft should go a certain way doesn't mean the team's sees the draft the same way. If you are a follower of the draft you'll remember several instances of lists being leaked and them not being anything remotely close to what Bob MacKenzie and the ungreatful dead bloggers have to say. The NHL even showed the Flyers draft room a few years ago and they had six defensemen in their top seven picks, which flew in the face of what "the draft order" said. Teams will identify their needs and draft accordingly. Draft BPA is all about the BPA on your team list, not Bob MacKenzie's or Craig Button's. I suspect their draft list wil be very different from what the bloggers are calling as the draft order.

[dammage79]

Treliving has made mention of a need for RH shots. He also said that's down the list in building BPA but did recognize it as an organizational need.

In the defense department they're pretty set. FW is really weak, almost non existent.

So I for one would think that a RH shooting FW crawls up the BPA list for the Flames.
What do the Flames have in the system? Arnold, Harrison, Jooris, Shore, Smith, Hamilton, Hathaway and Caroll. Tell me how this shouldn't be a priority for the team.

Thats one full time NHL'er and 3 tweeners and 3 question marks. And that one full timer kind of flat lined this year (Jooris). I'd bet the McLeod slots right in on the Flames list right behind Laine, Puljujarvi and Nylander.

EDIT: did run through the other 29 teams to check out their RH FW depth. Flames and Detroit are the worst in the league from top to bottom.Flames are absolute worst when it comes to Full time NHL players. And run a big fat 0 in the top 6 FW department. 0!

When it comes down to it. A lot of folks believe RH shots are essential to building a team. Some don't . That's cool. But the All time leading scorers for the Flames were both RH shots. Big time void on the organization. Gotta draft some RH shots in the first round.

[dammage79]

Anyone having any luck finding a way to watch U.S vs SWE right now?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

It is not a simple change otherwise you'd see more lefties playing the right side.

Probably somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 the RWs in the entire league are left shots so yes, tons of lefties play the right side. On the Flames we had lefties Hudler, Colborne, Ferland, Frolik and Gaudreau all playing RW in the last year.

Originally Posted by New Era

Switching from center to wing is much easier

Much easier than switching wings? Disagree. We've seen players who are centres struggle to adapt to the wing. Derek Grant late this season is an example

Originally Posted by New Era

The Flames can build their draft list any way they want. Just because the basement bloggers suggest the draft should go a certain way doesn't mean the team's sees the draft the same way. If you are a follower of the draft you'll remember several instances of lists being leaked and them not being anything remotely close to what Bob MacKenzie and the ungreatful dead bloggers have to say. The NHL even showed the Flyers draft room a few years ago and they had six defensemen in their top seven picks, which flew in the face of what "the draft order" said. Teams will identify their needs and draft accordingly. Draft BPA is all about the BPA on your team list, not Bob MacKenzie's or Craig Button's. I suspect their draft list wil be very different from what the bloggers are calling as the draft order.

I totally agree with that. Not sure how that contradicts anything I've said.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Treliving has made mention of a need for RH shots. He also said that's down the list in building BPA but did recognize it as an organizational need.

In the defense department they're pretty set. FW is really weak, almost non existent.

So I for one would think that a RH shooting FW crawls up the BPA list for the Flames.
What do the Flames have in the system? Arnold, Harrison, Jooris, Shore, Smith, Hamilton, Hathaway and Caroll. Tell me how this shouldn't be a priority for the team.

Thats one full time NHL'er and 3 tweeners and 3 question marks. And that one full timer kind of flat lined this year (Jooris). I'd bet the McLeod slots right in on the Flames list right behind Laine, Puljujarvi and Nylander.

EDIT: did run through the other 29 teams to check out their RH FW depth. Flames and Detroit are the worst in the league from top to bottom.Flames are absolute worst when it comes to Full time NHL players. And run a big fat 0 in the top 6 FW department. 0!

When it comes down to it. A lot of folks believe RH shots are essential to building a team. Some don't . That's cool. But the All time leading scorers for the Flames were both RH shots. Big time void on the organization. Gotta draft some RH shots in the first round.

Getting RH shots is certainly a priority. But you aren't going to take a worse prospect just because he shoots right. So there's a very good chance we won't get a RH shot with the Flames 1st rounder unless we win the lottery. McLeod isn't rated as a top 8 prospect by most scouts so unless the Flames just love Nylander then a LH shot is probably the way we'll have to go at the draft whether it be defenseman or forward.

Treliving has a TON of assets he can use to trade for a RH shot. Or we could sign a RH UFA. That is much more likely than our chance of drafting one (barring a lottery win.)

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Getting RH shots is certainly a priority. But you aren't going to take a worse prospect just because he shoots right. So there's a very good chance we won't get a RH shot with the Flames 1st rounder unless we win the lottery. McLeod isn't rated as a top 8 prospect by most scouts so unless the Flames just love Nylander then a LW shot is probably the way we'll have to go at the draft.

Weird. You concede there is no list with New Era then shove this perspective down my throat at every chance. Are you trying to get a rise out of me?

Once again, just because the bloggers and media have McLeod down a list means absolute zero to how the Flames build their list. So why do you concede this with one poster and not me? Why can you not be more open here. Because it's not what you want?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Weird. You concede there is no list with New Era then shove this perspective down my throat at every chance. Are you trying to get a rise out of me?

Once again, just because the bloggers and media have McLeod down a list means absolute zero to how the Flames build their list. So why do you concede this with one poster and not me? Why can you not be more open here. Because it's not what you want?

I've watched McLeod, he doesn't look like a guy we'd be taking #6/7 to me, higher upside players will be available. The VAST majority of scouting opinions back that up. The Flames certainly could have McLeod top 7, I'd never rule that out. But I think its fairly unlikely because I think there are better players available at positions that are more in need for us. McLeod doesn't have 1st line centre potential and centre is one of our deepest positions. RH shooting may notch him up a notch or two on our list but I still think that leaves him outside the Flames top 7. I'm just making informed guesses, nobody knows the Flames list right now.

I just don't get why a couple of you are so fixated on McLeod. He's a great prospect but I think you're underrating some of the others at the top end if you think he'd be the best player available at #6/7. It's a very strong draft at the top 9-12, saying McLeod isn't top 6/7 isn't trashing him or doing him disservice. If we were much weaker at centre he might even be one of my favourites. But overall I think his lack of 1st line upside combined with the fact he plays a position that the Flames are set at for the next decade means he shouldn't be rising on our list higher than everybody else's.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I've watched McLeod, he doesn't look like a guy we'd be taking #6/7 to me, higher upside players will be available. The VAST majority of scouting opinions back that up. The Flames certainly could have McLeod top 7, I'd never rule that out. But I think its fairly unlikely because I think there are better players available at positions that are more in need for us. McLeod doesn't have 1st line centre potential and centre is one of our deepest positions. RH shooting may notch him up a notch or two on our list but I still think that leaves him outside the Flames top 7. I'm just making informed guesses, nobody knows the Flames list right now.

I just don't get why a couple of you are so fixated on McLeod. He's a great prospect but I think you're underrating some of the others at the top end if you think he'd be the best player available at #6/7. It's a very strong draft at the top 9-12, saying McLeod isn't top 6/7 isn't trashing him or doing him disservice. If we were much weaker at centre he might even be one of my favourites. But overall I think his lack of 1st line upside combined with the fact he plays a position that the Flames are set at for the next decade means he shouldn't be rising on our list higher than everybody else's.

Well I don't see how it's an absolute lock the Flames are set at C for the next decade. Bennett can be LW, has proven he can succeeed well there.
By the time Backlunds deal is up the scenario where McLeod would be ready would be around the time Backlunds likely to be made expendable.
Jankowski as much as I think he will be an NHL'er shouldn't be cemented a spot just yet. Monahan and Bennett are really the only two locks. There's no such thing as too much C depth.

I think the main reason we're fixated on McLeod after the Finns and Nylander is because of the disaster in the RH department. And for me, and forgive me for repeating myself, An elite PK'er and defensive Center is just as valuable to the Flames as anything else. Prove me wrong. Goal scoring isn't the issue with this roster. You know it, I know it, the world knows it.

The same Flames scouts took Jankowski after trading down when there were plenty of higher ceiling players available @ 14 and then @21. So I don't see why relying on compiled media lists to rank player is such a huge issue with you. And why you default to those.

[The Original FFIV]

.@grantmccagg: About every ten years, there's a guy that comes along with a release like Laine's. I think Bossy, Hull, Ovechkin on his shot

If you want a good listen, go to tsn radio Vancouver Twitter and look for the SoundCloud with Grant Mccagg from Mckeens. He explains his man crush on McLeod and says chychrun may continue to fall.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

.@grantmccagg: About every ten years, there's a guy that comes along with a release like Laine's. I think Bossy, Hull, Ovechkin on his shot

If you want a good listen, go to tsn radio Vancouver Twitter and look for the SoundCloud with Grant Mccagg from Mckeens. He explains his man crush on McLeod and says chychrun may continue to fall.

https://soundcloud.com/tsn-radio-van...-hull-ovechkin

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Well I don't see how it's an absolute lock the Flames are set at C for the next decade. Bennett can be LW, has proven he can succeeed well there.
By the time Backlunds deal is up the scenario where McLeod would be ready would be around the time Backlunds likely to be made expendable.
Jankowski as much as I think he will be an NHL'er shouldn't be cemented a spot just yet. Monahan and Bennett are really the only two locks. There's no such thing as too much C depth.

IMO Monahan, Bennett and Jankowski all have higher offensive potential than McLeod. Sure we could move Bennett to the wing to fit McLeod in but wouldn't it make more sense to take a 1st/2nd line winger with size who fits our needs exactly?

Originally Posted by dammage79

I think the main reason we're fixated on McLeod after the Finns and Nylander is because of the disaster in the RH department.

The 1st round of the draft is not the only way to solve this issue. Trades, UFA, 2nd round picks and on can all be ways Treliving address that issue.

Originally Posted by dammage79

The same Flames scouts took Jankowski after trading down when there were plenty of higher ceiling players available @ 14 and then @21. So I don't see why relying on compiled media lists to rank player is such a huge issue with you. And why you default to those.

I actually think Jankowski is one of the highest or the highest upside available player available from 14 on that year. He had #1/2 skilled centre with size upside. I think that upside is greater than Tervainen, Maata, etc. Jankowski was ranked 14th by Craig Button that year. IMO we did take the highest upside player available, the downside with him was that he was 5-6 years from contributing when we drafted him.

Why should we default to scouting lists? Well I think it is arrogant to do otherwise. Unless I've seen all the players several times, preferably live, then I'm not going to think my opinion is more valid than scouts who have seen these guys many times in the past couple years. I like taking my favourite lists and then tweaking them with the Flames needs and any draft tendencies I've noticed from the Flames in the past 5 years or so of drafts. If you know the biases and tendencies of that scouting agency you can adjust their lists as well. Do you disagree with that approach? Have you seen McLeod, Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander, Chychrun, Sergachev enough times to accurately rank them in relation to each other? I haven't. That's why I defer to the scouting lists I trust.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

IMO Monahan, Bennett and Jankowski all have higher offensive potential than McLeod.
Not set in stone. fair to believe as such and you'll find no argument from me on Monahan. He's a blessing. I'll agree with the offensve potential on Bennett, but the rest of his game? Thats a debate worth having. Jankowsi and Mcleod project similarly to me. Better to have two bullets in the chamber than relying on one. After that there's Arnold and a smattering of other C's in the system that can make the big show further down the road



The 1st round of the draft is not the only way to solve this issue. Trades, UFA, 2nd round picks and on can all be ways Treliving address that issue.
At What cost though in regards to UFA/Trade? I'm not focusing on UFA because what might be available is going to ocst and arm and a leg. Trade wise? Who's going to be available?


I actually think Jankowski is one of the highest or the highest upside available player where from 14 on. He had #1/2 skilled centre with size upside. I think that upside is greater than Tervainen, Maata, etc. Jankowski was ranked 14th by Craig Button that year. IMO we did take the highest upside player available, the downside with him was that he was 5-6 years from contributing when we drafted him.

I thin the Janko pick was the right move at the time. But that pick has been torn down and shredded since day #1. But the Flames stuck to it.
Just further cements my belief in McLeod and why I feel the Flames can take a shot on him.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I just don't understand why we'd need multiple bullets at a position we're already stacked at. Monahan is a potential franchise centre. So is Bennett IMO. Both are on another class completely than McLeod. Then we'd have Jankowski, Backlund and McLeod fighting over the 3rd line centre role? Just doesn't make sense to me when we could draft a winger with size who fits our immediate and long term needs.

Who's available through trade? We can't possibly know. But Treliving has a ton of picks/prospects that can be moved for a right shot winger.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

.@grantmccagg: About every ten years, there's a guy that comes along with a release like Laine's. I think Bossy, Hull, Ovechkin on his shot

If you want a good listen, go to tsn radio Vancouver Twitter and look for the SoundCloud with Grant Mccagg from Mckeens. He explains his man crush on McLeod and says chychrun may continue to fall.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if some teams have Laine ranked first. If we won the first overall, and if you take needs into consideration, he'd probably be my preferred choice.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I think what Laine has done in the playoffs has put him in serious contention for #1.

[sureLoss]

Fwiw treliving was asked about the importance of LHS vs RHS on ranking players before the 2014 draft. He said it had very minor effect on the Flames rankings. (Iirc)

I think he implied it was more of a tiebreaker rather than something they focused on

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

.@grantmccagg: About every ten years, there's a guy that comes along with a release like Laine's. I think Bossy, Hull, Ovechkin on his shot

If you want a good listen, go to tsn radio Vancouver Twitter and look for the SoundCloud with Grant Mccagg from Mckeens. He explains his man crush on McLeod and says chychrun may continue to fall.

Thanks for that. I love hearing interviews with head scouts for scouting agencies, Asst GM's, etc. Unfortunately the interviewers asked some weakish questions