[CP Story] Simulator Fix : April 13th

[polak]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm killing all the negative Karma day by day until late April.

Everyone will owe me.

April 30th I'll be cheersing to Bingo! .... or throwing the bottle at the TV.

Either way.

[ThatsRobbery]

My run today is not good at all:

1. Arizona
2. Winnipeg
3. Vancouver

Drop 2 spots, 2 division rivals get a top 3 with Zona getting their homegrown boy, and Winnipeg gets Laine to their already deep prospect pool. Only consolidation is Edmonton is out of the top 3, but they probably get a D then.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm killing all the negative Karma day by day until late April.

Everyone will owe me.

Or just make us feel so numb it doesn't even matter on Lotto Day.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Ranked this a 7.

Start with 10 Points:

Negatives:
- -5 for Calgary not winning one of the top 3
- -2 for Calgary dropping one spot
- -2 for Toronto in the top 3
- -2 for Montreal in the top 3
Total Negatives: -11

Subtotal: -1

Positives:
+ 3 for Edmonton not being in the top 3
+ 3 for Vancouver not being in the top 3
+ 2 for Colombus (or any American Eastern Team) winning one of the lotteries
Total Positives: 8

Total value: 7

Doesn't feel like it should be a 7 - feels like if the Flames don't get one of the lottery wins (yes, I know it is a long-shot), and especially if they fall further down (which is much more likely), it should be below 5 - if 5 is understood to be neutral.

At any rate, not having any of what I consider the 3 franchise level players selected in our division (not even in our conference) would be a benefit. Ending up with Tkachuk is something I can really get behind as well, as I think he would be highly effective either with Monahan and Gaudreau, or Bennett and 'X' down the road.

I can't see Edmonton selecting Dubois, however. Though I agree that they chase hype, they may select a defencemen at that spot - probably Chychrun. Would Vancouver select Julolevi next, or would they feel that Dubois and/or Tkachuk could be much better?

Either way, selecting at 6 with these combos guarantees the Flames one of Dubois or Tkachuk - and quite possibly the choice between them. Edmonton and Vancouver are the two teams most likely to select defencemen in the draft, but at 2 and 3 there is no way they would do so without trading down. Dropping them a couple of spots could force one or both of them to do so, giving the Flames potentially more options on a forward prospect (though I can also see the Flames drafting a defencemen - but organizationally it isn't as big of a need as we are all aware of).

[RoadGame]

Originally Posted by Bingo

http://www.calgarypuck.com/2016/04/l...ix-april-13th/

No home run, but better today!

I gave it a 6

Just wanted to say thanks for a great idea & series of articles to pass the time until the draft.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by polak

This is a depressing exercise. Every one off I've done since Bingo started doing his has Calgary dropping.

A little less than 3/4 of the time we won't win the lottery. We just need that 26% or so to come through for us on April 30th

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

A little less than 3/4 of the time we won't win the lottery. We just need that 26% or so to come through for us on April 30th

I will be drinking that day. Probably a lot, but I can't decide if I will drink more that day to celebrate a top three pick or if it will take more booze to drown my sorrows.

[MissTeeks]

Last year, the neighborhood kids learned new swear words when the Oilers won the lotto. This year they will probably just hear hysterical crying from the windows.

[OutOfTheCube]

I ranked it a '3'. Calgary and Buffalo both move down.

I did it 100 times yesterday and only got the 'best possible scenario' (some possible combination of Calgary and Buffalo being 1-2) twice.

[CroFlames]

I ran it a good 20 times yesterday and Flames did nothing but drop. I think once they moved up to 2nd.

I'm gearing up to be disappointed with an 8th or later pick.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I don't want to over-step myself here, and I may very well be misinterpreting this thread - but I thought the point of this thread was to discuss Bingo's selection as per the OP, and build discussion around that, rather than have everyone post their own lottery simulation results.

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I don't want to over-step myself here, and I may very well be misinterpreting this thread - but I thought the point of this thread was to discuss Bingo's selection as per the OP, and build discussion around that, rather than have everyone post their own lottery simulation results.

Meh, it'll be like this for the next 17 days. Everyone running the simulator on a daily basis. At least these daily threads keep all the lottery talk in one place so if people want to put their own results up, they can.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I'm gearing up to be disappointed with an 8th or later pick.

Well it can't be worse than 8th, and 8th is pretty unlikely.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

I ranked it a '3'. Calgary and Buffalo both move down.

I did it 100 times yesterday and only got the 'best possible scenario' (some possible combination of Calgary and Buffalo being 1-2) twice.

Does Buffalo really need another piece of that calibre? Ristolainen/Eichel/Reinhart/ROR/Kane/Ennis... Buffalo can probably do just fine with a Chychrun or Tkachuk....

We need a top 3 pick because they fill a glaring hole in our forwards group.

[Displaced Flames fan]

I say 7. The big 3 go to the Eastern Conference? That's a win.

"If I can't have you nobody can!!"

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Well it can't be worse than 8th, and 8th is pretty unlikely.

... well you've done it now

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by nik-

... well you've done it now

Even that isn't without joy.

Only way to drop to 8 is have three teams with the lottery from spots 9-14 meaning none of Toronto, Edmonton or Vancouver draft in the top 3

And at 3.7% I'm just stating the probability anyway am I not?

[Flashpoint]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Even that isn't without joy.

Only way to drop to 8 is have three teams with the lottery from spots 9-14 meaning none of Toronto, Edmonton or Vancouver draft in the top 3

And at 3.7% I'm just stating the probability anyway am I not?

I would rate that outcome a 7 or 8. Better by far that those teams don't get a top 3 and have the media drone on and on and on about how they are "Canada's Pride" for the next 4 years (on account of a F-ing lottery)...

Plus we're good at Drafting over the past few years. 8th vs 6th = meh.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Flashpoint

I would rate that outcome a 7 or 8. Better by far that those teams don't get a top 3 and have the media drone on and on and on about how they are "Canada's Pride" for the next 4 years (on account of a F-ing lottery)...

Plus we're good at Drafting over the past few years. 8th vs 6th = meh.

I'm with you on that one. I think I'd honestly rather take Flames at 8th vs. being 5th but having the top three go to Leafs, Oilers, Canucks. Yes, I do realize it sounds petty, but can't help it. I don't think the drop off between 5th and 8th is that big, and man would it be sweet to laugh at the other three teams.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Well I really like in Bingo's outcome that VAN and EDM lost. And we're sitting 6th which is better than 7th. As DFF notes special bonus for the 3 stars of the draft going to the eastern conference instead of our direct rivals.

That's not a bad result for a non-win. I give it a 6.