[News] Flames Draft pick status. UPD: Arizona gets compensation for Bleackley

[Vinny01]

Glad that Winnipeg somehow swept California and finished ahead of us. Would have been nice to lose that game to the Wild to confirm the bottom 4 finish but at the end of the day I feel the flames will get a top 3 pick

[Tron_fdc]

I'd be ecstatic if we got into top 3. This year to me is a throw away; Had we had above average goaltending we would be in the playoffs, not talking draft position.

I expect this team to start contending in 3 years so my priority is a goalie by trade or development that fits that timeline. Landing an elite talent in the draft this year is just gravy.

[bucksmasher]

one thing that kinda sucks is it looks like there is a ~65% chance the flames move back 1, 2 or 3 spots

[Hackey]

The win against the Canucks definitely screwed things.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

That is an interesting list, ricardodw. I think it likely shows that 1) tanking isn't evident this year and/or 2) a ten game sample is too small. Bruins and Avs were trying to win games and finished at the bottom. All the other teams (except the leafs) had nothing really to play for, and ended up within 4 points.
Edit: 5 points, can't count.

I think that it shows that this lottery for each of the top 3 picks is a total failure. What ended up happening is that 9 out of the 12 teams were in full tank mode. Even the Jets who didn't tank were putting out 4-5 AHL players.

The prize of having a better chance for a top 3 pick turned out to be a better incentive at an organizational level to lose than just maybe picking 5th rather than 6th or 7th.

[Sainters7]

I can't believe Vancouver managed to fall all the way to 28th. Their tank game was on a whole other level the last couple months of the year.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

I can't believe Vancouver managed to fall all the way to 28th. Their tank game was on a whole other level the last couple months of the year.

I don't think it was a tank as much as a horrible team with very little talent.

And a idiotic GM

[bucksmasher]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I think that it shows that this lottery for each of the top 3 picks is a total failure. What ended up happening is that 9 out of the 12 teams were in full tank mode. Even the Jets who didn't tank were putting out 4-5 AHL players.

The prize of having a better chance for a top 3 pick turned out to be a better incentive at an organizational level to lose than just maybe picking 5th rather than 6th or 7th.

I don't know if I agree/understand your first sentence but I think you could be right that since its more of a crap shoot now more bottom/bubble teams could be tanking. With the bottom 6-8 all having better odds of a top 3 pick, there could be more incentive to tank. The NHL's anti-tank solution may have caused the opposite effect that it was trying to.

[Sylvanfan]

I personally hate this new lottery system. Just watch someone like Boston end up winning it. To draw for the top three picks is excessive.

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by bucksmasher

one thing that kinda sucks is it looks like there is a ~65% chance the flames move back 1, 2 or 3 spots

Take solace... There's better than 73% chance that the Grease move down.

[Yanda]

64.7% to move down, what a ####ty system.

[bucksmasher]

Originally Posted by Hackey

The win against the Canucks definitely screwed things.

It seems like when Calgary tries to tank, if that's what they're doing with the call ups, that it generally backfires. I always wonder if this means there are guys in the AHL that should be up here playing and getting a shot more often. Even if some of them are playing above their heads for a few games you'd think a few would stick and the team would be closer to or in a playoff spot.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

...
Maybe be they were not as obvious as the Canucks or Oilers but 9 pts in the last 10 games says otherwise.

Actually it says a number of possible things, buy you are who you are.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Yanda

64.7% to move down, what a ####ty system.

It's better this way

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Itse

I expected some griping about draft position in the PGT, but wow. The odds that the difference between 4th and 6th matters is 5.5%. The odds that the difference between 4th and 5th matters is 2.7%. Otherwise we're talking 1-2 spots in the draft. It's not like there was a significant tier we just dropped out of.

Also, some perspective would be nice. Our ranking was decided by 82 games. Not 1 game.

Okay personal pet peeve here but your summary that there is a 5.5% difference between 4th last and 6th is misleading and incorrect. That's only the difference for picking #1. The other outcomes are more likely and thus more important. Let me go over it once last time.

Chance of picking top 3:
4th: 29%
6th: 23.5%

Chance of picking top 5:
4th: 59.4%
6th: 23.5%
HUGE difference. 36% difference, not 5.5% difference.

Chance of picking top 6:
4th: 92.6%
6th: 41%
HUGE difference again. 51.6% difference there, nowhere near 5.5% difference.

People wanted 4th over 6th last not just for the extra small chance at #1, or even the small extra chance at a top 3 but the massively higher chance at a top 5-6 pick. Luckily since this draft doesn't drop off huge after 5 or 6 we should still get a top prospect. In another year the difference of two spots could mean a franchise player vs a 2nd liner. But this year we're guaranteed a great prospect.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I don't think it was a tank as much as a horrible team with very little talent.

And a idiotic GM

Fair enough, I guess I just mean how quickly it happened down the stretch. Once I (embarrassingly) embraced the tank by the trade deadline, I was keeping a close eye on the inverted standings and didn't think there was a chance Vancouver would "catch" us, they were way ahead. I guess I underestimated them..

[Street Pharmacist]

When is the Matthews lotto max draw?

[Bingo]

My issue is what a team should and shouldn't be allowed to do.

Teams out of the playoffs should take every opportunity to look at who they have in their system. They're not going anywhere it's prudent.

Teams out of the playoffs should move expiring assets at the deadline. It's asset management.

What the Oilers did last year with Perron was tanking. That was a "lets make sure we suck" move by MacTavish.

I think playing Hiller more than once down the stretch was an attempt at tanking by the Flames for sure. Playing Backstrom more than twice was an attempt as well.

Breaking up Gaudreau and Monahan was an attempt.

All teams were shutting down key players with hang nails ... though Gaudreau did come back to finish up the season.

So many shades of gray for sure, but from what I saw players don't tank, they all put in the effort.

[CroFlames]

I simply detest that there is even a discussion about tanking in pro sports. A system needs to be in place where each and every game the entire org (managers + players) try to win 100% of the time.

What system should that be? My opinion is unpopular, but simple. Each team that misses the dance gets 1 lottery ball. Picks 1-14 are all lottery picks. No one has any incentive to do anything except try their hardest to win.

Oh, but what about strong teams getting really good prospects? In the cap era, teams will be forced to trade top prospects once they realize they can't afford them down the line. In the grand scheme of things, it will all even out.

[Conroy4Mayor]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I simply detest that there is even a discussion about tanking in pro sports. A system needs to be in place where each and every game the entire org (managers + players) try to win 100% of the time.

What system should that be? My opinion is unpopular, but simple. Each team that misses the dance gets 1 lottery ball. Picks 1-14 are all lottery picks. No one has any incentive to do anything except try their hardest to win.

Oh, but what about strong teams getting really good prospects? In the cap era, teams will be forced to trade top prospects once they realize they can't afford them down the line. In the grand scheme of things, it will all even out.

I like the straight draw for all the spots too. Your system could be revised slightly to make it more fair. All other rounds after the 1st round, the teams would pick in the reverse order. So in other words, if you got first overall, you wouldn't pick again until #44. If you got 14th, your next pick would be 31 (just outside the first round).