[News] Flames Draft pick status. UPD: Arizona gets compensation for Bleackley

[Itse]

I expected some griping about draft position in the PGT, but wow. The odds that the difference between 4th and 6th matters is 5.5%. The odds that the difference between 4th and 5th matters is 2.7%. Otherwise we're talking 1-2 spots in the draft. It's not like there was a significant tier we just dropped out of.

Also, some perspective would be nice. Our ranking was decided by 82 games. Not 1 game.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by druetetective

I wonder if Bleackley is even worth a ELC at this point, guy might sign any "bona fide offer" sent his way.

I know it's probably not even worth discussing since 1 extra player off the board is not significant, but I'm greedy and want all our picks as high as possible.

I also could see the NHLPA raising #### if the Coyotes offer a crappy deal just so he refuses in order to get the pick-I'm not sure it's been done before.

He has already received and declined a bona fide offer from Colorado last year (otherwise, they would have lost his rights a year ago).

[Itse]

Honestly, I'm mostly hoping that what ever happens, neither Puljujärvi or Laine go to the Oilers. I don't really care about Vancouver, and I don't really care about Matthews.

I would also have a mid-sized orgasm if one of the Finns came to Calgary. (Enough so that I could live with the other going to Edmonton.)

But yeah, that's pretty much all I care about at this point.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by druetetective

I wonder if Bleackley is even worth a ELC at this point, guy might sign any "bona fide offer" sent his way.

I know it's probably not even worth discussing since 1 extra player off the board is not significant, but I'm greedy and want all our picks as high as possible.

I also could see the NHLPA raising #### if the Coyotes offer a crappy deal just so he refuses in order to get the pick-I'm not sure it's been done before.

The bare minimum bona fide offer is $575k NHL salary with no signing bonuses and $35k minor league salary in which the Coyotes can bury him in the ECHL.

He is probably better off taking the WHL's scholarship program than accepting an offer like that. Hell, even an AHL only minimum deal at $44k is better. Likely also could get more in Europe.

And the NHLPA can't raise ####, that is the terms of the CBA it negotiated. If they don't like it, negotiate a better minimum bona-fide offer with the NHL.

And yes it has happened before, the San Jose took the 2nd round pick for Patrick White who they acquired from the Canucks in the Erhoff trade.

[devo22]

Not going to lie, I wasn't overly ecstatic yesterday when the Flames won. Very happy for Sieloff and Backstrom, but yeah, when I saw the Columbus result, it was difficult to really celebrate this one. That being said, I didn't expect Winnipegs win, so everything's good. 5th in the reverse standings isn't a bad spot ... I fully expect someone from 4 to 6 to jump into the top 3. Why not us?

I desperately want Laine on the Flames. Matthews can go somewhere else (ideally Columbus or Carolina ). If they don't jump into the top 3, someone like Chychrun or Dubois would make me very happy too.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bunk

I'm rooting for a Calgary, Winnipeg, Coilmbus top 3. Eff the tankers.

based on the last 10 games the lottery teams

Jets 14
Sabres 13
Sens 11
Hurricanes 10
Habs 10
Blue Jackets 10

Devils 9
Yotes 9
Canucks 9
Oilers 9
Flames 9

Bruins 7*
Leafs 6
Avs 4*

Avs and Bruins were not tanking they were just bad.


If the Flames were not tanking they are in a boat load of trouble. 9 pts in 10 games extrapolates to a 73 pts season Only the top 3 lottery teams played the last 10 games like they were playoff level teams.


The Flames were tanking. The odds are their side karma is not.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

based on the last 10 games the lottery teams

Jets 14
Sabres 13
Sens 11
Hurricanes 10
Habs 10
Blue Jackets 10

Devils 9
Yotes 9
Canucks 9
Oilers 9
Flames 9

Bruins 7*
Leafs 6
Avs 4*

Avs and Bruins were not tanking they were just bad.


If the Flames were not tanking they are in a boat load of trouble. 9 pts in 10 games extrapolates to a 73 pts season Only the top 3 lottery teams played the last 10 games like they were playoff level teams.


The Flames were tanking. The odds are their side karma is not.

Yes, team that collected 7 of 8 possible points in their final four was tanking hard.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames were tanking. The odds are their side karma is not.

If the Flames were tanking they would not have won those last two games. They would have gone out of their way to guarantee losses in those games.

[red sky]

Okay okay. I am sure no one wants to see everyone's lotto simulations but on my first try the order went Flames, Devils, Coyotes. Yes please!

[SportsJunky]

That Flames lineup last night was a stinker. Even if they were trying to tank, the Wild were not having it. Calgary won despite themselves.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Yes, team that collected 7 of 8 possible points in their final four was tanking hard.

That is one way of looking at it..... or 1 pt out of the last 8 against teams that wanted to win.

Flames haven't won a game against a team that wanted to win since they beat St.L on March 14.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

That is an interesting list, ricardodw. I think it likely shows that 1) tanking isn't evident this year and/or 2) a ten game sample is too small. Bruins and Avs were trying to win games and finished at the bottom. All the other teams (except the leafs) had nothing really to play for, and ended up within 4 points.
Edit: 5 points, can't count.

[FFF]

Laine/Puljujärvi going to the Oilers is my fear as well. Team Finland doesn't have enough of forward prospects, we can't spare either for their sad-sack organization to "develop". Greasy hands off Juolevi as well, please. Calgary would obviously be better for their development, at least we've got a solid structure organizationally and the culture of the team seems sound as well.

[Geeoff]

So we have the 5th pick but only a 9.1% chance of keeping it? Weird...

[The Original FFIV]

[QUOTE=sureLoss;5713418]With the Jets beating the Kings in the SO.

The Flames will have the following picks (Assuming I didn't make any mistakes)

Flames 1st round pick = 5th OA *pending lottery

Draft lottery on April 30th.

Draft lottery odds:
1st 8.5%
2nd 8.8%
3rd 9.0%
5th 9.1%
6th 35.5%
7th 25.5%
8th 3.7%


Apologies if I am missing something but 4th spot is missing here. If we factor that in, what are the revised odds.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

Apologies if I am missing something but 4th spot is missing here. If we factor that in, what are the revised odds.

It is impossible for the Flames to get the 4th OA pick. They can win a lottery pick and get a top 3 pick or they can stay at 5 or for every team that is below them wins the lottery, they move one spot down.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I am definitely going to be cheering that our division rivals do not win this. I prefer scary prospects not end up in the hands of our division rivals. However I would definitely be less upset with a VAN or ARI win. I would just really, really like to see EDM lose the lottery.

I wonder how they are going to announce it this year? If they try and announce it in reverse order then we're going to deduce the top 3 teams pretty easily as it goes along. Do they replace that system with just announcing the winner of the 3rd lottery, the 2nd lottery and then the 1st lottery? That would make more sense with this new system.

Because there are three lotteries I think reverse would be great tv.

A team missing (and another team moving back and taking their place) tells you that said missing team won a lottery, but you don't know which one.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by New Era

If the Flames were tanking they would not have won those last two games. They would have gone out of their way to guarantee losses in those games.

Other than pulling the goalie for the whole 3rd period what more could have they done more to try to lose?


Hunter Shinkaruk does not play on the top line at this point in his career or get any PP time at all on any NHL team that is trying to win.


Maybe be they were not as obvious as the Canucks or Oilers but 9 pts in the last 10 games says otherwise.

[Rhettzky]

Formatting is bad but this is the final chart from SB Nation for draft odds. Check it out at this link for a better view.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...and-odds-table

Specifically for the Flames:
1st = 8.500%
2nd = 8.767%
3rd = 9.011%
4th Pick = 0%
5th Pick = 9.094%
6th Pick = 35.465%
7th Pick = 25.467%
8th Pick = 3.697%

Full Chart:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Toronto 20.000 17.486 15.020 47.494 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Edmonton 13.500 13.071 12.478 35.161 25.790 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Vancouver 11.500 11.435 11.259 14.196 37.809 13.801 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Columbus 9.500 9.684 9.816 3.149 27.308 33.186 7.358 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Calgary 8.500 8.767 9.011 0 9.094 35.465 25.467 3.697 0 0 0 0 0 0
Winnipeg 7.500 7.824 8.150 0 0 17.548 39.309 17.940 1.730 0 0 0 0 0
Arizona 6.500 6.856 7.234 0 0 0 27.866 39.140 11.662 0.742 0 0 0 0
Buffalo 6.000 6.363 6.756 0 0 0 0 39.223 34.764 6.627 0.267 0 0 0
Montreal 5.000 5.358 5.579 0 0 0 0 0 51.845 28.582 3.375 0.081 0 0
Colorado 3.500 3.808 4.165 0 0 0 0 0 0 64.049 22.807 1.649 0.022 0
New Jersey 3.000 3.280 3.608 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73.551 15.939 0.620 0.003
Ottawa 2.500 2.747 3.038 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82.331 9.251 0.133
Carolina 2.000 2.208 2.455 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90.108 3.230
Boston 1.000 1.114 1.252 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 96.634

[Hackey]

What a dream scenerio to win a lottery ball and bump the Leafs, Oilers, or Canucks. Fingers crossed. I'm actually pretty excited for April 30th. It will be interesting. I just pray things go in our favor.