[GDT] Flames vs Canucks 7:00 SNW

[868904]

I really don't think it matters where the Flames or Canucks end up seated in the standings right now.

Flames could finish "ahead" and Canucks could still pick "behind" and vice versa. The 26th place team could win the lottery or the 25th place team. You just don't know.

That's the beauty of the lottery.

Personally, I'm already resigned to the outcome that the Canucks will get Matthews and the Leafs and Oilers will get the finns and let's face it, all 3 of those teams, need those players more than the Flames.

And who's to say that the Flames at 4th, 5th, or 6th overall, don't walk out with the best player? The top 3 in this year's draft are better now than the rest but this isn't a McDavid type draft. The 4 to 10 guys could very easily surpass the top 3. The only thing we know now is that the top 3 are the most ready to step in and contribute.

I'm personally most intrigued by a 6'5 skilled and fast centreman who plays with a bit of an edge. Fully developed, you could be looking at a Vincent Lecavalier. Chychrun is intriguing too.

[polak]

Well I just picked up a pair of tickets (Thanks Brownstown!) so I'm hoping for tons of goals.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by 868904

I really don't think it matters where the Flames or Canucks end up seated in the standings right now.

Flames could finish "ahead" and Canucks could still pick "behind" and vice versa. The 26th place team could win the lottery or the 25th place team. You just don't know..

For me my concern about standings is primarily based on how far can the Flames move down. I think there are some clear tiers. I think they are going to get a damn good player regardless but there are certain tiers that mean certain positions are more important

#1 overall
2-3
4-6
7+

I realize it isn't that black and white - but that's how I see it.

[Toonage]

The wildcard is how much the teams choosing before the Flames covet a defenseman.

[JiriHrdina]

That is true. There are several x-factors. My guess would be that the Flames' list would look something like
1. Matthews
2. Finn#1
3. Finn#2
4. Tkachuk/Chych
5. Tkchuk/Chych

When you get to 6 it gets cloudy. 6 for me is Nylander. But the Flames could go a number of other different routes. And after 6 things get even more cloudy.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

That is true. There are several x-factors. My guess would be that the Flames' list would look something like
1. Matthews
2. Finn#1
3. Finn#2
4. Tkachuk/Chych
5. Tkchuk/Chych

When you get to 6 it gets cloudy. 6 for me is Nylander. But the Flames could go a number of other different routes. And after 6 things get even more cloudy.

I think Dubois could certainly be in our top 6. I'd have him ahead of Nylander for sure due to his combination of size, speed, skill and physicality. It's hard to know where they slot Chychrun in. Could be as high as #4. Could be #6 behind Tkachuk/Dubois. With Treliving being a former defenseman, wouldn't surprise me if they value potential top pairing d-men very high in general. For that reason they may have Sergachev and Juolevi quite high as well even though a big winger would arguably fit our longterm needs slightly better.

A lot of these guys are so close the Flames may not have decided yet where to slot these guys. It's so close I think you could alter your list based on NHL need or style of play. I would love to sit on those final scouting meetings in June.

Chychrun's stock may still rise or fall a bit based on his U18s. He's missed a lot of high profile tournaments in the past and was (surprisingly for some) cut from the WJC team this year. These U18s will be big for him and guys like McLeod, Bean, Fabbro, Jost. Hopefully Canada gets far enough that we see them televised in that tournament. The US team is usually loaded with NDTP guys and is usually the strongest entry.

Sounds like Chychrun had a decent playoff despite his team being eliminated. He scored a few goals.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Toonage

The wildcard is how much the teams choosing before the Flames covet a defenseman.

Agreed. In a draft like this where the top 12 is so close we could see a lot of manoeuvring around the defensemen. I'm guessing some teams will have some strong preferences who like at forward/defense and I see a lot potential for trading up/down.

[The Yen Man]

Ironically, it's the Flames stellar OT record that's hurting them in the tie breaker. Seems like Flames have the tiebreaker on all the teams they're fighting in the inverse standings.

[Monahan For Mayor]

Serious question, what are the odds the Oilers take a Dman like Chychrun if they end up with let's say the 2-3 pick ? Pushing one of Laine or Puljujarvi down.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by polak

Not to single you out but this is extremely short sighted.

We're talking one win, maybe 5 mins of gratification after the game where you get to be happy and maybe laugh at a canucks fan or two vs. Potentially franchise changing draft position that can literally change the course of this team for the next 10 years....

Plus it's not like you need an extra reason to laugh at a Canucks fan.

Does anyone really believe this? The players available in this year's draft look terrific, but I have serious doubts that they are of the same calibre as Lemieux, Crosby, Doughty, or *barf* McDavid. Maybe? But probably not.

Moreover, even if the Flames win out over their last two games, I also do not believe that the marginal decrease this will produce to their lottery odds are enough to make all the difference.

I am cheering for a win, because I always do. I like watching the Flames win. As for their draft prospects, I'm not convinced that even landing Laine or Puljajarvi will come with "franchise changing" implications. It is far, FAR more important for teams like TO and Vancouver to get one of the three lottery picks because their future IS currently that bleak. But even with the core of players the Flames have in place today, there are LOTS of reasons to be very bullish about the future without adding one of this year's big three. It would be terrific to draft one of them, but the Flames will be just fine even in the event they end up picking eighth.

So then. GFG.

[Jetfire]

[Hackey]

Higher draft position > Meaningless win

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Monahan For Mayor

Serious question, what are the odds the Oilers take a Dman like Chychrun if they end up with let's say the 2-3 pick ? Pushing one of Laine or Puljujarvi down.

Low IMO. Maybe at #3. But even then I think they would only do it if they could trade down 1-2 spots to land at #4 or #5. If you want the d-man but you think the winger is slightly better, it makes sense to deal down for an extra 2nd or more and then take the d-man.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Does anyone really believe this? The players available in this year's draft look terrific, but I have serious doubts that they are of the same calibre as Lemieux, Crosby, Doughty, or *barf* McDavid. Maybe? But probably not.

Moreover, even if the Flames win out over their last two games, I also do not believe that the marginal decrease this will produce to their lottery odds are enough to make all the difference.

I am cheering for a win, because I always do. I like watching the Flames win. As for their draft prospects, I'm not convinced that even landing Laine or Puljajarvi will come with "franchise changing" implications. It is far, FAR more important for teams like TO and Vancouver to get one of the three lottery picks because their future IS currently that bleak. But even with the core of players the Flames have in place today, there are LOTS of reasons to be very bullish about the future without adding one of this year's big three. It would be terrific to draft one of them, but the Flames will be just fine even in the event they end up picking eighth.

I partially do. I think Laine would be a franchise changer personally, I think his potential is that high. 40+ goal scoring potential, I think he could be among the top 3 goalscorers in the NHL. Matthews has even higher upside than Monahan and Bennett IMO. Puljujarvi I think would be a big add as well with his size, motor, skating all mixed with some good skill although I don't necessarily think he has as much upside as Matthews/Laine.

Even though the top 12 is great you always want to have your pick of the players in a tier. In this case the Flames have very immediate and specific needs of adding a power forward, a 1st line calibre skilled forward or adding another top 3 defenseman to give us an elite d-core moving forward. I'd say preferably we draft a power forward given our organizational weakness at that position. The higher we draft the more likely we can choose a power forward over another type of player. I think outside of drafting top 3 both Tkachuk and Dubois really fit our needs quite well even though neither is a right shot. Chychrun may have similar upside to Ekblad and it would be hard to turn that down if the Flames scouts think that way. I think after about pick 6 you may start to get guys that are less ideal for various reasons.

Right now we can finish anywhere from 3rd last to 6th last. At 3rd last we'd have a 34.2% chance of drafting top 3. At 6th last we'd have a 23.5% chance of drafting top 3. That is a 10.7% difference, not insignificant at all.

More importantly finishing 3rd last would give you an 86% chance top draft top 5. If you didn't win one of the lotteries you'd have your pick of that 2nd tier which would be ideal. As well drafting 4th or 5th gives you the potential of dealing up into the top 3 to get that big right shooting winger we really need.

Finishing 6th last would give you a 76.4% chance of NOT drafting top 5. Less chances to deal up. More uncertainty about getting your top choice in that 2nd tier.

I mean we're probably fine either way. But there is actually a huge difference in expected outcomes between the spots we can finish. We might still get a guy we love at #6 or 7 but boy, getting #4 gives us a lot of options to trade up/down or just take a great guy. And the chance increase of winning the lottery is a bit larger than people realize because the 1% difference between most of the picks affects all 3 lotteries and thus is multiplied to be more like 3% difference.

Anyways I understand both sets of fans. It's fine to want us to beat our biggest rival. But it's also fine to take the long term view and wish for better expected draft lottery outcomes which may affect this franchise for the next decade. I'll be hoping for a loss while cheering the Flames on. Don't hate.

[FBI]

If we're going to win, win BIG! I'm talking Safeway million dollar score and win big.

10-0 Flames.
Bennett with 5 for the million, Mony with 3 for 30 and Johnny with 2g 3a for the 50..

Or if Hiller is magically playing then 11-10 loss with same scorers as above.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

...I mean we're probably fine either way. But there is actually a huge difference in expected outcomes between the spots we can finish. We might still get a guy we love at #6 or 7 but boy, getting #4 gives us a lot of options to trade up/down or just take a great guy. And the chance increase of winning the lottery is a bit larger than people realize because the 1% difference between most of the picks affects all 3 lotteries and thus is multiplied to be more like 3% difference.

Anyways I understand both sets of fans. It's fine to want us to beat our biggest rival. But it's also fine to take the long term view and wish for better expected draft lottery outcomes which may affect this franchise for the next decade. I'll be hoping for a loss while cheering the Flames on. Don't hate.

I don't hate, but I do struggle to understand the urgency of some who seem to see the the draft lottery as an essential outcome for the Flames.

This is a very good post, and I think I agree with most of it. I don't think any of us doesn't want to draft in the top three. But where I see the substance of the argument is in the importance of doing so. For me, it would be great, but like you said the Flames are probably fine either way.

So I say enjoy the game, and then enjoy the draft. There really isn't much downside here whether the Flames draft #1 or #8, the future is still very bright for this team. It's a totally different proposition from the perspective of Canucks and Leafs fans, who both quite desperately need this top-three pick.

[Benched]

I'll be at the bar. Turns out that cheering for a loss is sudo like cheering for the Canucks....and while it's shameful, you might do it at home by yourself, but in public....


*shudder*


GO FLAMES GO! 7-0 Flames. Money gets to 30Gs tonight and a first career hatty. Shin-kirk with a G. Johnny 4 Apples.

[heep223]

If Monahan gets a hattrick tonight I'll do five consecutive shots of fireball

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Higher draft position > Meaningless win

It's not so straight forward with the lottery, though. It's more like some chance of a higher draft position.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Benched

I'll be at the bar. Turns out that cheering for a loss is sudo like cheering for the Canucks....and while it's shameful, you might do it at home by yourself, but in public....


*shudder*


GO FLAMES GO! 7-0 Flames. Money gets to 30Gs tonight and a first career hatty. Shin-kirk with a G. Johnny 4 Apples.

Thanked for Unix reference