2015-16 RFAs. Who gets re-signed?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

So since most people have already started thinking about the off-season in anticipation of next year, I figured we should have a discussion about something pretty straightforward. Which of our impending RFAs gets qualified and which ones do we let go? Here's the list in order of current salary:

Joe Colborne: $1.275 M.
Josh Jooris: $975 K.
Johnny Gaudreau: $925 K. (That has to be the best bang for your buck in the NHL right now )
Sean Monahan: $925 K.
Tyler Wotherspoon: $925 K.
Bryce Van Brabant: $874 K.
Drew Shore: $850 K.
Bill Arnold: $824 K.
Kenny Agostino: $735 K.
Freddie Hamilton: $687.5 K.
Kevin Poulin: $650 K.
Turner Elson: $605 K.
Joni Ortio: $600 K.

Bear in mind we currently have 30 pro contracts for next year. There are 13 RFAs listed here, and there will be two more contracts with Jankowski and Mangiapane, plus 3 junior players who are likely to make the jump to the AHL or other pro league next season (Andersson, McDonald, Pollock), with Nick Schneider probably going back to junior for one more year. That means if we re-sign all the RFAs we will have 48 contracts on the books. Consider that we will likely sign our 1st round pick to a contract right away and all of a sudden we're at 49 contracts...not even including whatever goalie we find to be the starter for next season. So, basically, that's 50 if we sign everyone.

UFA's aren't even being considered here, so that means Nakladal and Grant won't be re-signed if we keep all our RFAs and don't trade any contracts away. Clearly, some room needs to be made, so who do we cut ties with?

My first thought is that guys like Van Brabant and Elson are done with this organization. I don't see much NHL potential in either, even though they do seem to be solid minor league guys. I just can't justify offering them a contract, but maybe an AHL only deal could be done.

I think we retain Ortio to be the backup on the NHL club next year, and with Gillies getting healthy along with McDonald likely making the jump to the AHL, that leaves Kevin Poulin on the outside. He isn't a bad minor league goalie, but probably not in this team's long term plans with 3 other prospects that will need net time, so we say buh-bye.

I'd like to have 2 more spots available, so we have to make a couple of tough choices. I think we say goodbye to Drew Shore who is 25 and hasn't shown that he can stick in the NHL despite attributes that say he should. As well, I think we drop one more of Freddie Hamilton or Kenny Agostino as both are older prospects that are maybe borderline NHLers, but likely not much more. However, Hamilton is not waiver-exempt, but Agostino still is, so I think it's clear that we keep Agostino over Hamilton.

As for the UFAs, I think Grant is let go since his 2 recalls have illustrated that he doesn't have the tools to be a good NHLer, while being an above average AHLer. Nakladal has shown he belongs, so I think they find a spot for him for at least a couple of years.

So in the end we say goodbye to Shore, Hamilton, Grant, Van Brabant, Elson, and Poulin. Perhaps if we buy out Raymond or trade Wideman we can keep 1 or 2 more guys, but I find that unlikely.

Obviously we retain Gaudreau, Monahan, Colborne, and likely Jooris. Wotherspoon, Ortio, Agostino, and Arnold can all be debated, but they're likely retained for at least one more contract. Here's what this looks like then for the rosters next year.

NHL Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-?
Colborne-Backlund-Frolik
Bouma-Bennett-Ferland
Bollig-Stajan-Jooris
Extra forwards: ?

Brodie-Giordano
Jokipakka-Hamilton
Engelland-Wideman
Nakladal

LTIR-Smid
Buyout-Raymond

?
Ortio

AHL Heat
Shinkaruk-Jankowski-Poirier
Agostino-Arnold-Mangiapane
Klimchuk-Pollock-Hathaway
Carroll-?-Smith

Wotherspoon-Kylington
Kulak-Andersson
Culkin-Sieloff
Morrison-Kanzig

Gillies-McDonald


Obviously, things could change, but this is how I see it shaking out next year. Perhaps we retain someone like Grant, Shore, or Hamilton to help out on the farm team.

BTW, if I made any false assumptions or omitted anything, please let me know. I'm far from a CBA/contract expert.

[devo22]

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=153911

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Ugh...I even did a search and everything.

FYI, the search function doesn't work very well.

[Bourque's Twin]

Gone: Shore, Grant, BVB, Elson, and Poulin.

Stay: Monahan, Gaudreau, Colborne, Jooris, Ortio, Agostino, Arnold, Wotherspoon, and Freddie.

New Contracts: Nakladal, Andersson, Jankowski, Mangiapane, McDonald, Pollock, and 2016 1st.

This puts the Flames at 46 contracts.

UFA's: sign a starting goalie and a top 6/9 forward.

In total 48 contracts.

[PeteMoss]

Not sure Arnold is a lock for a second contract.

He's older than Turner Elson who most are seeming to think is a write off despite being the same size and putting up more points in the AHL this year.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

What's hard to predict is trades out. I think Wideman could be dealt at the draft. Wouldn't surprise me if they dealt a guy like Jooris who IMO has been outshone by Hathaway and F. Hamilton and Grant.

Buying out Raymond would open up a contract spot.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

What's hard to predict is trades out. I think Wideman could be dealt at the draft. Wouldn't surprise me if they dealt a guy like Jooris who IMO has been outshone by Hathaway and F. Hamilton and Grant.

Buying out Raymond would open up a contract spot.

I really don't agree with this. Hathaway maybe, depending on what role you expect Jooris to play, but a handful of games is different than a full season, so I still can't say with certainty that he's definitively outplayed him.

[Poe969]

I wouldn't bring back Jooris. IMO he doesn't have much of anything in his game, he's not great at anything and not even that good at some things. He isn't going to win you games and he shouldn't really cost you games but that just isn't good enough IMO.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I really don't agree with this. Hathaway maybe, depending on what role you expect Jooris to play, but a handful of games is different than a full season, so I still can't say with certainty that he's definitively outplayed him.

Well Jooris had a whole season up here and disappointed. Didn't even hold down his 4th line role. When put further up the line up he's mostly disappointed.

Grant has better size and faceoffs. Hathaway is just better at the same type of grinding game. I guess Freddie didn't massively outplay him but IMO he showed more upside and more versatility.

IMO Jooris has played himself out of our top 12. If the Flames wanna keep him as an extra forward sure. I was a big fan of his the season before but this year he's been ineffectual.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well Jooris had a whole season up here and disappointed. Didn't even hold down his 4th line role. When put further up the line up he's mostly disappointed.

Grant has better size and faceoffs. Hathaway is just better at the same type of grinding game. I guess Freddie didn't massively outplay him but IMO he showed more upside and more versatility.

I've addressed this before, but Jooris has traditionally been able to score a little more than he has this year. I remember some reports of a wrist injury early in the year that he's been playing through, and that would possibly indicate how his shooting percentage went from about 13.5% last year, to around 5% this year. Not that I expected him to maintain 13.5%, but he's better than 5% for sure.

I don't think you write him off because of a less effective year. He's still better than any of the callups except maybe Hathaway, but even then I think Hathaway only gives you the same amount of offense as a down-year Jooris. Jooris could rebound and become a solid 3rd line scoring option on the right wing, which this team still needs BTW.

[Parallex]

Gone: Shore, Grant, BVB, Elson, and Poulin... but Elson get's the Carter Bancks special (AKA: We don't qualify you but we give an AHL contract). Everyone else is retained (and some perhaps traded).

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Fair enough, I just don't see the offense in him. He's our 12th/13th forward at best IMO and it hurts our offence when he's playing any higher than the 4th line. He's a pure grinder to me. I loved his game last year but I think he's been passed. Anyways respectfully agree to disagree

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Why do people not want to re-sign Grant? Best player in the minors by far. Big, strong, good on faceoffs, one of the top goal scorers in the AHL. Lots of people have criticized Stajan, we have a guy who can upgrade him and we wanna lose him for nothing? Why?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Why do people not want to re-sign Grant? Best player in the minors by far. Big, strong, good on faceoffs, one of the top goal scorers in the AHL. Lots of people have criticized Stajan, we have a guy who can upgrade him and we wanna lose him for nothing? Why?

Because when he plays in the NHL, he looks lost/invisible. Not saying he can't transition permanently to the NHL, but my money is on Stajan finding his game a little better than Grant suddenly figuring it out. Great depth player to have in an organization, but you can only have so many pro contracts. If you can sign him to an AHL only deal, good, but he probably won't take it.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Because when he plays in the NHL, he looks lost/invisible. Not saying he can't transition permanently to the NHL, but my money is on Stajan finding his game a little better than Grant suddenly figuring it out. Great depth player to have in an organization, but you can only have so many pro contracts. If you can sign him to an AHL only deal, good, but he probably won't take it.

I thought he looked good at the start of the year when he was playing centre.

He has looked completely lost on the wing but that's on the coaches for playing him out of position. Be nice to see him play some shifts at centre these last two games.

[Strange Brew]

The goalie situation is interesting. Do you use up more than 4 of your NHL contracts on goalies?

If so that could be Gillies, McDonald and the two goalies on the big squad. So no room for Poulin, and only room for Ortio if you are convinced he is an NHLer.

If McDonald not ready for AHL, then maybe you sign a veteran minor leaguer to an AHL contract.

If you are ready to use up 5 contracts for goalies then I could see bringing Poulin back with McDonald targeted for the ECHL.

Maybe you can get Poulin on an AHL deal?

[IgiTang]

Grant didn't really impress me with his recent call up. Sad when you are on par with Bollig.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Grant didn't really impress me with his recent call up. Sad when you are on par with Bollig.

To be fair I'm not sure that Grant is still 100%. I think that puck to the face did both physical as well as psychological damage that takes time to come back from. I think with the summer to recover Grant will turn more heads next year. I'm all for bringing him back.

[GranteedEV]

I think people are crazy to not be at least somewhat impressed by Grant in this call up. He's potentially the strongest Flame on the puck I can recall in the last half-decade. Stajan has looked a lot more like Matt Stajan with Grant on his wing too. Replace Bollig with an NHLer and that's a third line.

I would welcome a Grant-Stajan-Jooris fourth line. Three guys who can kill penalties, speed along the wings, faceoff ability, and enough skill to keep the opponent honest.

[JiriHrdina]

You also need some good pros at the AHL level. If he ends up being a tweener - that still has value. You can't stock your AHL team full of tweeners - but you need some.