The New American Politics thread

[Senator Clay Davis]

[photon]

The random stray ` makes it complete.

[calgarygeologist]

It is pretty obvious now that the likely outcome for the Republicans is a contested convention. If I'm not mistaken Cruz still hasn't reached the current threshold for getting on the ballot though. I think the current rule is that nominees need to win 8 states with 50% or more of the delegates. That convention rule will obviously be changed prior to the event because the RNC can do whatever they want.

It will be interesting to see what rules they establish for nominations.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

This "statement" is both ridiculous as hilarious.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I've been surprised before with Trump, but I can't imagist he made his very bad week any better with that petulant statement.

And lost in all that is how bad a night it was for him last night. He might end up with only 3 of Wisconsin's 42 delegates!

Given that it now appears he MUST win on the first ballot in order to prevail in Cleveland, this is a huge blow.

[FlameOn]

Final results for Wisconsin
Sanders up 13.7% with 47 pledge delegates vs. Clinton 36.

Cruz up 13.2% with 36 delegates vs 6 for Trump.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I do not believe Cruz can actually get enough delegates to pass Trump before the convention, but it's becoming a foregone conclusion Cruz is going to win the convention barring something unforeseen. Trump is self-destructing, and his vote numbers really do appear to be capped at around 40-45%. He should be thankful for winner take all states that will give him a few more wins, but I think losing a convention is the dream scenario for Trump: He doesn't have to be President, he can claim he didn't lose and that it was stolen from him instead (thus keeping up his "winner" image), and that he can be the hardline anti-establishment figure in the right for years to come, which will put money in his pocket (Glenn Beck for instance was making $85 million a year off those dolts).

[Parallex]

I'm beginning to wonder if it gets to a convention and Trump loses if he runs as an independent. I mean he seems vindictive enough to try it as nothing more then a "screw you".

[Fuzz]

That'd be great. Keep any chance of Cruz getting elected to zero.

[nik-]

If a year ago you'd tell me that Trump would be the front runner until near the end and then Cruz would end up being the eventual winner I would have thought you were crazy.

It's unbelievable how this has gone.

[JonDuke]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I'm beginning to wonder if it gets to a convention and Trump loses if he runs as an independent. I mean he seems vindictive enough to try it as nothing more then a "screw you".

I feel like he definitely would, and that it scares the GOP knowing they would lose lots of votes to him, thus almost guaranteeing a Democratic win.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Trump could go third party I guess, I just have an extremely difficult time believing it'd be a serious bid. He obviously has no intention of spending any significant amount of money, plus there's the issue of whether he could even get on the ballot of every state at that point (post-convention). So him being the dickish troll that he is, maybe he just "runs" third party to keep hammering Cruz, but it's not really bid with the intention of winning. Just an excuse to keep the ego trip going.

[Fuzz]

Well he's not just going to pack up his ego and go home.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Well he's not just going to pack up his ego and go home.

I still don't believe that Trump actually wants to be President. I think he might be relieved if he doesn't get the nomination.

[Vulcan]

Going to the convention I've heard it's possible that none of Trump, Cruz or Kasich are the nominee. Cruz is being used to stop Trump but he's hated by the establishment as well.

[nik-]

Surprise nominee at the convention ... Starts with one joke vote and then balloons out of control

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I still don't believe that Trump actually wants to be President. I think he might be relieved if he doesn't get the nomination.

I keep thinking that this is the worlds most expensive publicity stunt by Trump.

Either he's crazy, or he's taken the most extreme crazy comedy route I've ever seen.

His reaction on everything is to take the most extreme right wing position possible. Toss in a plan of we'll get a couple of really smart guys to figure it out, and mix it with the spoon of self righteous craziness and you have a recipe for this campaign.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Going to the convention I've heard it's possible that none of Trump, Cruz or Kasich are the nominee. Cruz is being used to stop Trump but he's hated by the establishment as well.

That he is. The problem for the establishment is they might not have much influence with delegates. It's not like the Dems with superdelegates, the delegates themselves are generally grassroots activists, and state and local officials, who are much less likely to be in lock step with the national party. This is why Cruz is getting into lock territory, he's actively wooing and pursuing delegates while Trump apparently only in the last few days actually hired someone to try and attract delegates. But the establishment likely has little to no say in the convention in terms of voting for a potential winner. Now manipulating the rules to heavily favor a candidate of their choice? Different story.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I keep thinking that this is the worlds most expensive publicity stunt by Trump.

Either he's crazy, or he's taken the most extreme crazy comedy route I've ever seen.

His reaction on everything is to take the most extreme right wing position possible. Toss in a plan of we'll get a couple of really smart guys to figure it out, and mix it with the spoon of self righteous craziness and you have a recipe for this campaign.

Is he spending a dime of his own money, or his he just riding on donations?

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Is he spending a dime of his own money, or his he just riding on donations?

He has loaned his campaign a fair chunk of money that he'll be paid back, his whole "self funded campaign" schtick is disingenuous at best. But Trump so c'mon, you know he's full of crap.