Flames record down the stretch

[Flames Draft Watcher]

For some reason http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html wasn't updated for me but now it has

Chance of finishing:
7th last: 2.6%
6th last: 33.9%
5th last: 33.8%
4th last: 22.5%
3rd last: 6.7%

[Five-hole]

There is a possibility to finish 29th, if Toronto beats Columbus tomorrow, Toronto wins out, and Columbus picks up at least 3 points. We'd have to lose out, of course. That means Edmonton finishes 30th.

I think priorities are that Edmonton NOT finish 30th, and that we stay below one of CBJ or WPG. Obviously, our destiny is in our hands, and we need to lose the games we can lose. It would be best if Edmonton could pass BOTH Toronto and CBJ, but that means they have to win both games against Vancouver, meaning we'd be at risk of finishing 6th (if we also beat Van).

Realistic best-case scenario in my mind:

30 - Toronto
29 - Edmonton
28 - Winnipeg (I think they lose out the string -- tough games ahead)
27 - Calgary
26 - Columbus
25 - Vancouver

For this to happen we have to pick up three less points than C-Bus, meaning, if we lose out, CBJ needs 1-1-1 at worst. If we win one game, CBJ needs 2-0-1 or better, which already looks unrealistic.

[Roof-Daddy]

Winning these last three games seems quite pointless to me.

With 3 losses the Flames likely end up 28th, and could draft no less than 6th overall.

Whatever happens is what happens I guess.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Who would've thought such a good night in the reverse standings was possible with us losing in OT? But thanks WPG! We've really gotten some solid help lately with WPG and VAN not bending over the last couple games.

Flames chance of finishing:

6th last: 28.4%
5th last: 29.3%
4th last : 34.5%
3rd last: 7.7%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Next game against VAN is huge in the reverse standings. Any sort of loss would almost guarantee we finish below them. It's a home game so you'd assume they'll start Ortio.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Who would've thought such a good night in the reverse standings was possible with us losing in OT? But thanks WPG! We've really gotten some solid help lately with WPG and VAN not bending over the last couple games.

Flames chance of finishing:

6th last: 28.4%
5th last: 29.3%
4th last : 34.5%
3rd last: 7.7%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Next game against VAN is huge in the reverse standings. Any sort of loss would almost guarantee we finish below them. It's a home game so you'd assume they'll start Ortio.

I really want to draft high...going to be a hard/weird game to watch as I hate the Canucks more than the average Flames fan.

[kn]

Records since March 8th, after tonight's action:

             
                 GP  W  L  OTL  PTS
(22) Buffalo     14  7  5   2    16
(24) Arizona     15  7  7   1    15
(25) Winnipeg    15  6  6   3    15
(29) Toronto     14  7  7   0    14
(27) Calgary     14  6  6   2    14
(26) Vancouver   14  5  8   1    11
(23) Montreal    13  5  8   0    10
(28) Columbus    12  4  8   0     8
(30) Edmonton    12  4  8   0     8

[FBI]

So the worst we can possibly pick now is 9th with 3 drop downs from the lottery?

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Who would've thought such a good night in the reverse standings was possible with us losing in OT? But thanks WPG! We've really gotten some solid help lately with WPG and VAN not bending over the last couple games.

Flames chance of finishing:

6th last: 28.4%
5th last: 29.3%
4th last : 34.5%
3rd last: 7.7%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Next game against VAN is huge in the reverse standings. Any sort of loss would almost guarantee we finish below them. It's a home game so you'd assume they'll start Ortio.

I seriously think they'll start Hiller. Perfect excuse after Ortio's shaky night tonight.

Then I think Backstrom will start against the Wild. I haven't agreed with putting Hiller in net since Ramo went down at all, even less so since Backstrom got fit and suited up as back up. I wanted to see what we've got with Ortio.

But now, I honestly think its fair to Hiller to start him against the Canucks. It'll likely be his final NHL game and he deserves to go out on a bit of a high. He's played 400 NHL games and this will be a nice way to send him off. Yes, he's stunk up the joint this season, but he gave us solid goaltending last season which helped us into the play offs. Start him against the Canucks and let Backstrom go against the Wild.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FBI

So the worst we can possibly pick now is 9th with 3 drop downs from the lottery?

Correct. And even if we do finish 6th last there is only a 1.7% chance that 3 teams behind us could win and push us down to 9th. Not a likely outcome.

I think it's safe to say at this point we'll be drafting top 8.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

2 games left, if Flames go:
2-0-0: 82% for 6th last, 17% for 5th last, 1% for 4th last
1-0-1: 32% for 6th last, 49% for 5th last, 19% for 4th last
1-1-0: 17% for 6th last, 46% for 5th last, 35% for 4th last, 2% for 3rd last
0-0-2: 4% for 6th last, 32% for 5th last, 60% for 4th last, 4% for 3rd last
0-1-1: 5% for 5th last, 83% for 4th last, 13% for 3rd last
0-2-0: 62% for 4th last, 38% for 3rd last

[Five-hole]

Biggest issue now is that Minny has nothing to play for. Stupid Avs.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

Biggest issue now is that Minny has nothing to play for. Stupid Avs.

Well if Backstrom lets in 6 again vs them we'll probably lose

[Enoch Root]

Taking the numbers from these two posts...

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Who would've thought such a good night in the reverse standings was possible with us losing in OT? But thanks WPG! We've really gotten some solid help lately with WPG and VAN not bending over the last couple games.

Flames chance of finishing:

6th last: 28.4%
5th last: 29.3%
4th last : 34.5%
3rd last: 7.7%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Next game against VAN is huge in the reverse standings. Any sort of loss would almost guarantee we finish below them. It's a home game so you'd assume they'll start Ortio.

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Correct. And even if we do finish 6th last there is only a 1.7% chance that 3 teams behind us could win and push us down to 9th. Not a likely outcome.

I think it's safe to say at this point we'll be drafting top 8.

The chances that the Flames draft 9th are: 28.4% x 1.7% = 0.0048% (or about 1 in 200)

[MissTeeks]

Ortio starts Thursday, Backstrom starts in Minny:

Kristen Odland ‏@Kristen_Odland6m6 minutes ago

As per Bob Hartley, Ortio starts tomorrow vs. Vancouver. Backstrom starts in Minnesota.

[Toonage]

Hiller officially done for the year. React accordingly.

[djsFlames]

Minny will probably throw the game away for their old buddy Backstrom. ####.

[JJ1532]

But...but...the tank....why won't someone think of the tank?

I'd have given him a start, but I'm not going to ever be upset at him not starting. So long Jonas. You served us well last season, but were worse than useless this year. Best of luck in your future endeavours.

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Hiller officially done for his career. React accordingly.

fyp

[djsFlames]

Ortio plays the Canucks real well too. Looking like a 5-6th last place finish.

[Sylvanfan]

You can guarantee the Flames are losing to the Wild, they've become like the Ducks. Something about teams with ugly colored uniforms owning the Flames.

But I do think the Canucks game is pretty winnable for the Flames though. At this point it looks like the Flames are finishing 26th or 27th in the league. If they win tomorrow I think they'll end up ahead of Winnipeg, if they don't than I think they'll be the 4th worst team.

I'm sure the draft has talent, but lets face it, historically the difference between a top 3 and a top 5 pick has been pretty significant, let alone top 5 to top 8. There are years where it doesn't make too much of a difference, but from what I've been able to gather, you really want to be top 3 in this draft.