Is Ortio for real?

[madmike]

Bottom line is the Flames are not going to have a lot of money left over for goalies once they re-sign Gaudreau, Monahan and likely Colborne.

They need a guy who can be a quality starter. That's going to cost at least $3-4 million a year, which isn't going to leave a lot left over for a backup.

Ortio can be signed for cheap. He can be signed short-term. And he still has the potential to improve. I think it's unlikely they're going to find a better backup within their budget.

[polak]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Dominated? He had a 3.36 GAA and a .893 save percentage this season. That's about as bad as you can get in the AHL. He was brutal this year in the AHL.

Last year he was better (2.69 and .912), but hardly dominating.

He was an all star last year.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Dominated? He had a 3.36 GAA and a .893 save percentage this season. That's about as bad as you can get in the AHL. He was brutal this year in the AHL.

Last year he was better (2.69 and .912), but hardly dominating.

He also had a crap team of rookies in front of him. Look at the record with him and without him. Tells you all you need to know. Good job looking up 2 basic stats though, really shows you know what you're talking about.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by polak

He was an all star last year.

So? Ortio hasn't dominated the AHL the way one poster claimed. Wanna see dominating the AHL? See Matt Murray and his .941 SV% and 1.58 GAA in 40 games last year. See Jacob Markstrom and his .934 SV% and 1.88 GAA in 32 games last year.

Ortio has never had a dominant year compared to his peers.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

He also had a crap team of rookies in front of him. Look at the record with him and without him. Tells you all you need to know. Good job looking up 2 basic stats though, really shows you know what you're talking about.

Did Ortio dominate? No. That was the discussion, try to follow along.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

He also had a crap team of rookies in front of him. Look at the record with him and without him. Tells you all you need to know. Good job looking up 2 basic stats though, really shows you know what you're talking about.

Poulin, who stole his job, has better stats in every category, including Wins and Loses. You said something completely ridiculous and now you're doubling down on it? Ok.

You said he "dominated" the AHL. How about you post some stats to back this up? He is so far from dominating anything its laughable.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by polak

He was an all star last year.

Are you talking about Ortio? That guy that passed through waivers earlier in the year? Not often you see 29 teams pass on a young AHL all star goaltender when he's on waivers.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

He also had a crap team of rookies in front of him. Look at the record with him and without him. Tells you all you need to know. Good job looking up 2 basic stats though, really shows you know what you're talking about.

I have seen the argument of the Heats record with and without Ortio last year. That says as much about the backup as it does Ortio.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Are you talking about Ortio? That guy that passed through waivers earlier in the year? Not often you see 29 teams pass on a young AHL all star goaltender when he's on waivers.

Yes - http://theahl.com/rosters-p195655

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Yes - http://theahl.com/rosters-p195655

Yep and 29 NHL teams think so highly of him they all passed on him. Look I'm not saying he's a bum or anything but lets not pretend the Flames have a diamond in the rough here as he could be a decent backup goaltender but a full time starting gig in the NHL is likely not in his future. Also please stop with the Kipper comparisons that he didn't take off until he was 26 as if that was the norm all 30 teams would have a Kipper in net today.

[PeteMoss]

Its not like Kipper is the only late blooming goalie ever - Craig Anderson, Brian Elliott, Scott Darling, Michal Neuvirth are all guys playing now who basically washed out of the league at one point or another.

Not saying Ortio is going to be one of those guys - but its not like Kipper is only the goalie ever to follow that path.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yep and 29 NHL teams think so highly of him they all passed on him. Look I'm not saying he's a bum or anything but lets not pretend the Flames have a diamond in the rough here as he could be a decent backup goaltender but a full time starting gig in the NHL is likely not in his future. Also please stop with the Kipper comparisons that he didn't take off until he was 26 as if that was the norm all 30 teams would have a Kipper in net today.

I'd say a diamond in the rough is exactly what I'd call Ortio. He's shown extended periods of solid #1 play. He's had a few bad games this year but it's his first year playing an extended amount of time in the NHL and 24 is still young for goalies.

Really hope he blossoms with the Flames and not with another team because I have a strong feeling that the Ortio we're seeing after his 2nd call up is the real Ortio.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Its not like Kipper is the only late blooming goalie ever - Craig Anderson, Brian Elliott, Scott Darling, Michal Neuvirth are all guys playing now who basically washed out of the league at one point or another.

Not saying Ortio is going to be one of those guys - but its not like Kipper is only the goalie ever to follow that path.

Kipper is the only goaltender you listed that ever accomplished anything major in the NHL. Guys like him and Hasek simply don't come along all that often.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by polak

I'd say a diamond in the rough is exactly what I'd call Ortio. He's shown extended periods of solid #1 play. He's had a few bad games this year but it's his first year playing an extended amount of time in the NHL and 24 is still young for goalies.

Really hope he blossoms with the Flames and not with another team because I have a strong feeling that the Ortio we're seeing after his 2nd call up is the real Ortio.

I hope so as that would mean the backup situation next season is in good hands.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I hope so as that would mean the backup situation next season is in good hands.

Plus, you have to take his performance (and Colborne's and Hamilton's) with a large grain of salt - stats accumulated in meaningless no-pressure games are what the Oilers specialize in, and we make fun of...

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Plus, you have to take his performance (and Colborne's and Hamilton's) with a large grain of salt - stats accumulated in meaningless no-pressure games are what the Oilers specialize in, and we make fun of...

Absolutely although Hamilton was a 40 point player for Boston last season so for him it was more a matter of taking time to adjust to a new system as he's probably already the best defenseman on the team when it comes to making outlet passes. Treliving had stayed numerous times that he's being cautious about overrating players based on garbage time play so I'm not too worried about him going overboard on any of these guys.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Its not like Kipper is the only late blooming goalie ever - Craig Anderson, Brian Elliott, Scott Darling, Michal Neuvirth are all guys playing now who basically washed out of the league at one point or another.

Not saying Ortio is going to be one of those guys - but its not like Kipper is only the goalie ever to follow that path.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Kipper is the only goaltender you listed that ever accomplished anything major in the NHL. Guys like him and Hasek simply don't come along all that often.

Age when they became legit NHL starters:

Mikka Kiprusoff was 26
Craig Anderson was 28
Jimmy Howard was 25
Ben Bishop was 26
Corey Crawford was 25
Pekka Rinne was 25
Ryan Miller was 25
Antti Niemi was 26
Martin Jones was 26
Evgeni Nabakov was 25
Ed Belfour was 25
Dominik Hasek was 28
Niklas Backstrom was 28
Marty Turco was 26


Anyways. Lots of examples of quality starting goaltenders who took until their mid to late twenties to find solid NHL footing.

Will Ortio be another one to add to the list? Only time will tell, but there is no point in writing him off just yet.

[FanIn80]

Patrick Roy: 21
Mike Vernon: 23

How many NHL goalies became legit #1s prior to 23 and sustained that for multiple years beyond?

(It's a real question, I'm not being facetious. I actually believe the that the norm for true #1 goalies that sustain that status is 25+. I'm curious how many were Vernon's age or younger...)

[GranteedEV]

Go backwards in terms of cup-winning goalies and examine whether their path to "greatness" wasn't without bumps. And keep in mind that some of these players were handed the keys as full time starters without necessarily ever "earning" them as even 1Bs - their teams just plopped them in knowing the risk, and didn't mind the consequences:

Corey Crawford
Up to Age 26 - 7 GP NHL
Age 27 - .903 / 2.72 GAA

Jonathan Quick
Age 24 - .907 SV%

Tim Thomas
Up to Age 28 - 4 GP

Antti Niemi
Up to age 26 - 3 GP NHL

Marc-Andrew Fleury
Age 25 - .905 SV%

Chris Osgood - Despite being famous for mediocrity, has the best statistical career of this group up to age 26. Yes, Chris Osgood.

Giguere - The best goalie career to win a cup since lockout

Cam Ward - The second best goalie career to win a cup since lockout

I use the lockout as a cutoff because Vezina Trophies mean more expensive goalies, which doesn't work in the cap era. If your standard is "A Goalie We Can Win A Cup With" and not "A Goalie Who Can Win Himself a Vezina Trophy" then I don't see anything suggesting Ortio is well behind any curve, assuming there is such a curve. He has 27 GP and a .904 SV% between his age 23/24 seasons. This is ahead of some players above, behind others, and most of all - it doesn't really matter. What matters is letting him find his footing in the NHL and play through mistakes.

Ortio's age 25 season is next season and probably his first opportunity to get 30+ starts. I see no reason he can't so what Ramo did a season ago - be a 1B with league average SV%. Which would still be a good season for a 25 year old.