While I see value in both Ortio and Ramo, it would be perceived as failure to bring back both next season.
The Flames must bring in an outsider to start 50-60 games.
I thank Ramo for his time here. We have seen exactly what he is, a 1B, and at this point the Flames need to to give starts to players with 1 or 1A upside.
Not your gut as in you know who they're going after? Due tell!
And no I don't think they risk it on an equivalent either. I just think you don't need the Bishop type if you have a guy with aspirations improving in house. Freddy Anderssen won't cost as much as Bishop for example.
I don't know exactly who they are going after but I know they are leaving no stones unturned. I don't know if Bishop is even an option as there have been no concrete rumors about him being on the block and just speculation that if the Lightning re-sign Stamkos that they will have to unload Bishop's contract. Freddy Anderssen may not be an option unless in a three team trade like how the Sharks got Jones (just backstopped his team to a win against the Kings in an important game last night). I do know they have been interested in Reimer for a few years now and the Burke connection exists but I wouldn't rule out the Flames paying a high cost for an up and coming goaltender like Matt Murray. If they don't make a trade for a goaltender at the draft I would expect that Reimer is the plan for better or worse.
The Flames play a high risk system where the goalie is not going to look good on a lot of nights.
If the Flames are serious about making the playoffs they have to get the defense to play both ends of the ice.
Usually there is resistance to talented forwards working hard in the defense zone but on the Flames system the defense has to back check a lot harder than they currently do.
I thinks that if you look back the Flames goalies are better when Engelland plays 20+ minutes. Not saying that Engelland is a great d-man but it helps the goalies having D-men getting paid to defend rather than score.
The Flames play a high risk system where the goalie is not going to look good on a lot of nights.
If the Flames are serious about making the playoffs they have to get the defense to play both ends of the ice.
Usually there is resistance to talented forwards working hard in the defense zone but on the Flames system the defense has to back check a lot harder than they currently do.
I thinks that if you look back the Flames goalies are better when Engelland plays 20+ minutes. Not saying that Engelland is a great d-man but it helps the goalies having D-men getting paid to defend rather than score.
That's true and all but that's also been posted a hundred times over the course of the season by various posters. As long as Hartley is the coach this isn't going to change.
I think everyone has covered this fairly well, but just my 2 cents:
Ortio has proven capable of significant NHL time, but he doesn't have enough consistency in his game to be relied on as a starter. I don't know if someone like Reimer is enough of an upgrade on Ortio, but at the same time I can't trust the net to Ortio alone and then pick up a cheap backup somewhere. He occasionally has games where he doesn't look at all like an NHLer, so that alone means he should probably be a backup or a 1B. The problem is what do we do to find that starter or 1A.
At the very least, Ortio is a known commodity, so I'm completely in favor of bringing him back on a 2-3 year deal as the backup rather than going out to find 2 new goalies. We know Ortio can have a certain amount of success in the Flames system, whereas we have zero data with other goalies we'd possibly bring in. Finding a starter would remain the first priority, but in the case we end up with a lesser goalie as starter, Ortio would make a solid choice as a 1B.
So to answer the question, Ortio is definitely an NHLer, but probably won't be more of a backup unless he makes a quantum leap in his development.
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What i'm most shocked about Ortio's good play lately is the fact that he is doing this while part of a "3 headed monster". I was told that goalies could not possibly play well with the threat of 2 other goalies on the team and that Treliving cost this team dearly for having 3 goalies here to start the year.
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What i'm most shocked about Ortio's good play lately is the fact that he is doing this while part of a "3 headed monster". I was told that goalies could not possibly play well with the threat of 2 other goalies on the team and that Treliving cost this team dearly for having 3 goalies here to start the year.
The only threat Hiller and Backstrom represent at this stage is the threat of the team forfeiting two points in the standings.
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What i'm most shocked about Ortio's good play lately is the fact that he is doing this while part of a "3 headed monster". I was told that goalies could not possibly play well with the threat of 2 other goalies on the team and that Treliving cost this team dearly for having 3 goalies here to start the year.
This is way different than the start of the year, when it was clear Ortio was third in line, but there was competition all around. Now he's clearly on top and its Hiller and Backstrom sharing the backup role in both games and practice. Ortio has way less pressure now.
This is one guy that wants to earn an NHL job, and is getting the chance to do so. One guy that wants to prove he can play (both to himself and to any league watching) and is getting a chance to do so. And one guy that wants the season to end ASAP, and is getting a chance to do so.
You honestly never know with goalies. The year before Kipper came to the Flames, he had a 3.25 GAA and .879 SV%. I think we've seen enough to give him a little more time.
I look at how Tampa got Bishop and how that changed their franchise and made them a cup contender. I'm for going for a young guy that can compete with Ortio. Matt Murray would be my first choice and with potential expansion and only being able to protect 1 goalie will the Pens move Murray? If they think they will lose then they might. We have 3 2nds. I would rather potentially hit a home run and if it doesn't work out re-visit next summer than spend big money on a UFA goalie like Reimer who is solid but nothing special
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If, for example, the Flames signed Reimer and Ortio to three year deals, I would be nervous. A guy who hasn't proved he can be a consistent starter in this league and a guy who has yet to prove he can be a consistent backup.
I've said this before, but it's not so much the small sample size as it is the fact you throw away the awful stuff. If you cherry pick those other goalies good stretches he's not 11th I'm sure.
I'll be happy to see Ortio as back up next year, but this stretch hasn't increased my optimism much. A goalie is the sum of his work, not "we'll ignore this stuff because he wasn't playing well". What makes is think this Ortio is the real one?
Responding to this post of mine:
Spoiler!
Quote:
Originally Posted by driveway
Much better than just overall save percentage is 5v5 for evaluating goalies. With that shutout, since 2/23 Ortio is at .933. .930 and higher is when you're getting 'very good' goaltending.
Since 2/23 Ortio has played 901 minutes of hockey. This season, of the 52 goalies who have played 900 minutes or more, only 11 have managed a 5v5 save percentage of .933 or better.
Yes, it is a small sample size. Yes, you can argue teams are not playing as hard at this point of the year. However, over this time frame, Ortio has the 7th best 5v5 save percentage in the league. Since his call-up Ortio has been giving us not just starter-level numbers, but in-the-Vezina-conversation numbers. Small sample size or no, it is still very promising for the future. I firmly believe that after his shaky start and losing Hartley's confidence for whatever reason, Ortio has played himself into a contract and the right to fight for the starter's job in camp next year.
edit: Jonas Hiller has the worst 5v5 save percentage of any +900 minute goalie in the league. By almost a full percentage point: 51st Michael Hutchinson .903; 52nd Jonas Hiller .895. Karri Ramo is 38th at .919.
I do choose to look at a specific sample of Ortio's games - and I'm a big Ortio fan, I'll admit - but I don't think I do it arbitrarily, or simply based on his good play.
I always choose the date February 23rd to measure his recent play from as that was the date of his first start after being called back up from Stockton. I think that's a reasonable place to start measuring from to get a picture of how he's playing right now. Were I simply choosing his 15 best games, I think cherry-picking would be a totally spot-on criticism.
However, 2/23 was his first NHL start in four months, his previous start being 10/30 and his only NHL action in between being a half-game relief stint on 2/15. If he'd just come back from injury, I think everyone would use that as a demarcation point.
I think it's also valid to use statistics starting from that date based on Ortio's age. He's not a finished product yet. If I was looking at the stats of a guy like Ward, or Fleury, or Elliott, I would see his 15 most recent games as a 'how are you doing now' with a totally reasonable expectation of a return to previously established patterns and averages.
The thing with Ortio is that we don't have that. We've got 9 games in March in 2014 (.880 5v5); 5 games in January of 2015 (.927); one game in April 2015 (.722); two starts in October of 2015 (.870); two relief appearances in October 2015 (1.000); one relief appearance in February 2016 (.818), and then 15 starts from February 23rd to today (.933).
Based on his youth, the vast gulfs of time between his NHL appearances, and the fact that this is the most consistently he's had the opportunity to start in the NHL, I think looking at the specific stats from 2/23 onwards is totally valid. While I agree it's not the whole picture, and there may be something to the argument that Ortio starts slowly (I can't find game-by-game 5v5 stats for the AHL), I think, when it comes to Ortio the fact that very nearly half his career is the last month and a bit of games, looking at that month and a bit of games as more predictive than the rest of his early career isn't a terrible idea.
Last edited by driveway; 04-04-2016 at 08:26 AM.
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He was really good on Saturday night. I think he's proven that he should be strongly considered to remain on the roster as the backup goaltender next season.
He was really good on Saturday night. I think he's proven that he should be strongly considered to remain on the roster as the backup goaltender next season.
I bet Ortio outplays whoever we sign/trade for and is our starter by xmas next year. Treliving's mistake was when he couldnt trade Hiller in the summer, he should have stuck to his gut, and at the end of training camp sent down Hiller. In hindsight, do we make the playoffs if Ortio and Ramo get going earlier? Hiller was a lost cause, the other two not.
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Exp:
IMO Ortio will be brought back and given every opportunity to win the starters job. They will bring in a guy who has 1 or 2 years max left on his deal as well and may the best man win.
There is no reason he can not. Goalies tend to find their game around 26-27. I think many people need to be reminded of this.
He has also only played 35 games in the nhl... are people really expecting a ready product at this point? To think he has already peaked would be foolish.
I bet Ortio outplays whoever we sign/trade for and is our starter by xmas next year. Treliving's mistake was when he couldnt trade Hiller in the summer, he should have stuck to his gut, and at the end of training camp sent down Hiller. In hindsight, do we make the playoffs if Ortio and Ramo get going earlier? Hiller was a lost cause, the other two not.
Anything is possible but I would take that bet as next season there will be pressure on Ortio to perform and as we saw early in this season faced with that pressure he flopped. What separates the really good goaltenders from the mediocre ones at times is the ability to play well under pressure and right now we don't know if Ortio can play like this when every point is critical in the standings. Also lets not get carried away as while he's played well he hasn't carried the team on his back and stole games. The bar has been set so low that just being NHL average (what Ortio has been down the stretch) looks great. Still NHL average is good enough for the backup job.
