2016 NHL Draft

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dammage79

HA! That was just one game? Awesome.

That comment works two ways you know. Remember Sam Gagner's big eight point night, that accounted for 1/4 of his scoring that year? One big game does not a player make.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Changing gears a bit, but what about the Flames strategy heading into this draft? They should be headed to a top seven pick, and with luck move up into the top three. They have a number of picks in the top two rounds. The question is do they keep the picks, or do they try and move them for a more established player like they did with Hamilton? Do they use the 1st then package the 2nds and go after a player like Nichushkin? Would be a very interesting takeaway from the draft if they could add a player like Laine or Puljujarvi, then grab Nichushkin in trade, and add Jankowski out of college. Three new bodies all 6'3 and north of 200 pounds. Size and skill has been a requirement, and that is a definite add of size and skill. Makes having another small player like Mangiapane a much greater possibility.

[Poe969]

I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim. The Flames just don't have the same level of tank that a lot of other teams have and they're actually playing well. If they Flames drop out of the top 10, I'd seriously look at trading the pick like they did last year but it would have to be a great deal. I do love the idea of targeting one of Nichushkin or Hayes for the right wing. As much as the Flames need to get good prospects, they need good young players playing now and getting a lot of picks then trading them is a great way to help the team now.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim. The Flames just don't have the same level of tank that a lot of other teams have and they're actually playing well. If they Flames drop out of the top 10, I'd seriously look at trading the pick like they did last year but it would have to be a great deal. I do love the idea of targeting one of Nichushkin or Hayes for the right wing. As much as the Flames need to get good prospects, they need good young players playing now and getting a lot of picks then trading them is a great way to help the team now.

Did you look at the standings before you posted that? I'm guessing not

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

97% chance of finishing bottom 8. How on earth did you come up with the idea that drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim? That is flat out wrong. Quit spreading misinformation.

[Poe969]

Wow, easy there champ... I said "I think the idea..." not "the fact is..." I personally think the Flames are starting to actually play good. I think they'll win about 4 of their remaining games and other teams just seem to be doing everything they can to tank. I don't think it's out of the scope of reality for the Flames to finish ahead of at least one of the sabres, canadians or coyotes. It's also possible for teams that finish ahead of the Flames win the lottery and move ahead of them. The Flames are looking at being in the 6 spot now and I think they'll pass at least 2 more teams if not 3 putting them around 8 and if other teams win the lottery, they fall further.

It's not misinformation, it's an opinion. Knowing the Flames luck, they'll end up getting a lower than expected pick but that's my opinion. Maybe you should open yourself up to the possibility that odds don't always guarantee anything... so there's a 3% chance they finish with a pick lower than 8 and then there's a chance that other teams win the lottery. It would be the perfect crap storm but it could happen...

The Flames could also end up winning the lottery so who knows. I just think the Flames are getting hot now and will end up being punished for doing so.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

The idea of drafting in the top 10 is not getting more and more thin, it's a near certainty in fact so yes, you're dead wrong there and it is misinformation.

[kn]

For the doom and gloom crowd, we have a 1% chance at finishing 22nd. Then it's possible three teams with better records all win the lottery and we drop to picking 12th.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim. The Flames just don't have the same level of tank that a lot of other teams have and they're actually playing well. If they Flames drop out of the top 10, I'd seriously look at trading the pick like they did last year but it would have to be a great deal. I do love the idea of targeting one of Nichushkin or Hayes for the right wing. As much as the Flames need to get good prospects, they need good young players playing now and getting a lot of picks then trading them is a great way to help the team now.

Combining sportsclubstats final standings probabilities with the draft lottery odds, there is about a 0.1% chance of the Flames drafting outside of the top 10. I even used sportsclubstat's 50/50 based calculation instead of the weighted one which would have put downward pressure on our expected final ranking (i.e. weighted would make us lose more often than 50/50 which makes the odds of winning each game a coin toss). That includes last night's results.

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The idea of drafting in the top 10 is not getting more and more thin, it's a near certainty in fact so yes, you're dead wrong there and it is misinformation.

Wow...you pretty much just said "it's almost a fact so it's a fact"

Unlike you I'm not saying anything is certain at this point. There is a 1% chance the Flames could end up with the 12 pick...so it's possible. They could end up with the first overall pick, I'm saying anything is possible but in my opinion the Flames will end up with something around 10. It's not fact, it's not the law, it's not misinformation it's a GD opinion so relax. My line of thinking is that the Flames are actually playing really well and with a few guys trying to reach certain benchmarks, there is a good chance the Flames improve their position in the standings. With 6 games left, the Flames could gain up to 12 points...it likely won't happen but it could, but they're pretty much guaranteed to beat the oilers and nucks and now that the kings of clinched a playoff spot they could rest their team and the Flames could win those 2 games too. I'm saying anything is possible but if you can 100% without a doubt tell me how things are going to end and where the Flames are going to draft I guess I'll believe you. You are the Draft Watcher....

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Wow...you pretty much just said "it's almost a fact so it's a fact"

Unlike you I'm not saying anything is certain at this point. There is a 1% chance the Flames could end up with the 12 pick...so it's possible.

There is currently a 0.002% chance of the Flames picking 12th if you use a 50/50 weighting on all remaining games for all teams. This is mainly driven by the 2.129% chance we finish 9th multiplied by the 0.1% chance that the 9th place team gets bumped 3 spots.

[DiracSpike]

I'm mentally preparing myself for the Canucks to win the draft lottery this year. We all make fun of their rebuild on the fly but that would be a huge boost for them, and they're not as incompetent as the Oilers so it might actually help them get better, Benning and all.

[anyonebutedmonton]

Originally Posted by Poe969

... it's not misinformation it's a GD opinion so relax...

You said it's looking more and more likely they don't draft top 10. That is not an opinion. That's a representation of the current situation (i.e., a fact, albiet a wrong one).

He then systematically countered your point with fact (i.e., the odds of them actually doing so basically round to 0%).

[Poe969]

It's convienient you used ... instead of the part I wrote.

I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim.

The "I think" part indicates what I think, not what is fact. If I said "It's certain the Flames will draft outside of the top 10" then you'd have a point. I didn't so relax.

I guess if you have an opinion that the masses don't like or agree with it means you're wrong.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Poe969

It's convienient you used ... instead of the part I wrote.

I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim.

The "I think" part indicates what I think, not what is fact. If I said "It's certain the Flames will draft outside of the top 10" then you'd have a point. I didn't so relax.

I guess if you have an opinion that the masses don't like or agree with it means you're wrong.

"I think the Detroit will draft first overall". That is an opinion which can be honestly held, but which could also be roundly criticized as being extremely unlikely. I think that is all that is happening here.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Taking a look at schedules down the home stretch I think we finish in 6th spot prior to the lottery. I see the turtle race ending up like this:

Toronto
Vancouver
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Columbus
Calgary
Buffalo
Montreal

I ran a draft sim 100 times and we only finished top three 22 times. On average we drafted 9th, getting knocked three full spots! Not surprisingly the Oilers won the draft an astounding 29 times and drafted top three 62 times. I hope our luck in the real lottery is better and Edmonton gets knocked down three full slots.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

I'm mentally preparing myself for the Canucks to win the draft lottery this year. We all make fun of their rebuild on the fly but that would be a huge boost for them, and they're not as incompetent as the Oilers so it might actually help them get better, Benning and all.

I think Vancouver has been much more incompetent this year than the Oilers.

They are in a world of hurt even if they get Mathews.

[DJones]

Anyone know of how the picks are going to be selected?

Balls, envelopes, something new?

I hope they pick the #1 first then go in order. If they start at 3rd and go down I may have a heart attack if Edmonton isn't already selected.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

"I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim"

That is what you wrote Poe. That statement is wrong. It doesn't matter if it's your opinion, it's still wrong. If I said, "in my opinion the Flames still have a decent chance at the playoffs" I would be wrong. You are wrong. No need to try and defend it, just move on. You made a false statement, were called out and are now doing mental gymnastics to try and look less silly.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by DJones

Anyone know of how the picks are going to be selected?

Balls, envelopes, something new?

I hope they pick the #1 first then go in order. If they start at 3rd and go down I may have a heart attack if Edmonton isn't already selected.

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=810726

A machine is loaded with 14 balls numbered 1 through 14. 4 balls are drawn.
There are 1001 combinations. 1 combination (11, 12, 13 14) is considered a redraw. The rest are assigned to the teams beforehand and made public based on the lottery percentages. That's if they use the same system as last year which they probably will. Under the new system after the first team is drawn they would have to do a redraw for the 2nd or 3rd pick if they draw that team again.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey...medium=twitter

Article compares Puljujarvi to Malkin. The ISS guy claims Puljujarvi has the tools to play center which might make him more valuable.

One of the quotes I found interesting was on Chychrun.

Ferguson remains a big backer. “I’d go second on him,” Ferguson said. “Where are you going to get a defenceman that size that can play?”