Jankowski/Gilmour signing watch. (Friedman: "Arm-wrestling" over bonuses)

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

Don't forget that if he did burn a year, he'd have to be protected in the expansion draft should there be one in June 2018.

Given that Winnipeg is struggling with this same fact with Kyle Connor it might be a strong possibility that either Las Vegas or another team enters the NHL for the 2018-19 season.

Is this a big deal though? Our list of protected forwards thins out by the time you get to #7.

1.Gaudreau obviously
2. Monahan
3. Bennett
4. Backlund
5. Frolik
6. Jankowski

Who else are we terribly concerned with losing from our forward group?

[druetetective]

Originally Posted by SebC

Please, show that NHLe has diminished predictive value for "projects".

And how would he attempt to do that? How could you even pinpoint what players are projects?

Industry standard thinking has always been bigger guys take longer ala Colborne.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Is this a big deal though? Our list of protected forwards thins out by the time you get to #7.

1.Gaudreau obviously
2. Monahan
3. Bennett
4. Backlund
5. Frolik
6. Jankowski

Who else are we terribly concerned with losing from our forward group?

It gets to be a bigger deal if you really feel you need to protect more than three defencemen. Reduce that list of 7 to 4 and it gets a lot more difficult.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by druetetective

And how would he attempt to do that? How could you even pinpoint what players are projects?

That's the point. Projects are part of the NHLe dataset. Basically what the strength of NHLe's correlation tells us is that a low-scoring "project" is code for "bad pick" - unless of course there actually is evidence otherwise, in which case it should be possible to present such evidence.

[calgarywinning]

I think it's the perfect time to send the....

FEASTER BUNNY and get this deal done. He can hide an Offer Sheet in his hotel room or something.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by SebC
Please, show that NHLe has diminished predictive value for "projects".

Originally Posted by druetetective

And how would he attempt to do that? How could you even pinpoint what players are projects?

Industry standard thinking has always been bigger guys take longer ala Colborne.

I'd guess a player that needs to go College hockey or the CHL to the AHL is a project.

Here's some interesting stats.

League
Equivalencies
–
Gabriel
Desjardins
WHL
N
OHL
N
QMJHL
N
To
AHL
0.43
302
0.45
295
0.41
135
To
NHL
0.30
143
0.30
205
0.28
62
The
AHL
-
NHL
league
equivalency
implied
by
these
results
can
then
be
compared
to
the
observed
equivalency
of
players
moving
from
the
AHL
to
the
NHL
directly
at
age
18
and
age
19:
LgEq
N
Implied
0.68
Observed
0.65
154
Because
younger
players
improve
much
more
ra
pidly
than
older
players,
the
AHL
league
equivalency
is
much
higher
for
junior
-
age
players
than
for
players
in
their 20s

As seen an 18 or 19 year old CHL player going directly to the NHL has an equivalency of 0.65 instead of the 0.30.

http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_...ivalencies.pdf

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

Don't forget that if he did burn a year, he'd have to be protected in the expansion draft should there be one in June 2018.

Given that Winnipeg is struggling with this same fact with Kyle Connor it might be a strong possibility that either Las Vegas or another team enters the NHL for the 2018-19 season.

From my understanding, in order to accrue a professional season he needs to play 10 or more games, so even though he will burn a contract year, the summer of 2018 he will be finishing his second pro season and still be exempt.

Same thing applies to Connor, unless they don't sign him by next summer.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Is this a big deal though? Our list of protected forwards thins out by the time you get to #7.

1.Gaudreau obviously
2. Monahan
3. Bennett
4. Backlund
5. Frolik
6. Jankowski

Who else are we terribly concerned with losing from our forward group?

Is he really that clearly ahead of guys like Ferland and Poirier before having played one pro game?

[Geeoff]

The expansion team can only take one of our players, it's not gonna be Jankowski, unless Feaster is the GM

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Is this a big deal though? Our list of protected forwards thins out by the time you get to #7.

1.Gaudreau obviously
2. Monahan
3. Bennett
4. Backlund
5. Frolik
6. Jankowski

Who else are we terribly concerned with losing from our forward group?

Is Janko ahead of Porier, Shinkaruk, Klimchuck? To me he is just 1 of 4 prospects that are 20-22 drafted in the first round that have not yet panned out for the Flames

[Bingo]

For me you sign him as he's a better bet to play than any late 2nd round pick. His development curve has always been a year or two behind so get him in and see what he can do at the pro level while adding another 7-10 pounds a year in the AHL.

I have little interest in going back into Maata conversations at all, may as well see what they have.

If he's a smart two way center with size then they have a great pick in a pretty average draft as it turned out.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SebC

Please, show that NHLe has diminished predictive value for "projects".

The purpose of NHLe is to project the numbers of points a player could expect next year.

It uses averages from all the players that have walked that same path in the past.

A project, by definition, is someone who is going to take longer to develop.

So averages of other players their age are kind of pointless as an argument against them. Yeah, we know they are going to have lower point totals right now because, you know, they're a project.

That's the point. Projects are part of the NHLe dataset. Basically what the strength of NHLe's correlation tells us is that a low-scoring "project" is code for "bad pick" - unless of course there actually is evidence otherwise, in which case it should be possible to present such evidence.

Um no, it's not code for a bad pick. A late bloomer isn't going to be comparable to others at a young age, because... late bloomer.

So throwing averages from young players at them as an argument that they are no good, is rather pointless IMO. Well, to be more clear, it's silly if you are doing so as the argument for a player being a bad pick (like the article did).

The most important thing with prospects is progression. Jankowski continues to progress nicely. If someone wants to use NHLe as one means of showing where he is currently vs his peers, I'm all for it. And yes, he still has a ways to go.

But that is not what the author did.

[MrMastodonFarm]

I actually like NHLe but SebC seems to be using it incorrectly. Project isn't code for bad pick.. Where did that come from.

What was Kevin Hayes NHLe in seasons 1-3 at College, what was it in year 4?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by SebC

Please, show that NHLe has diminished predictive value for "projects".

Well, it doesn't because that is not what NHLe is used for. All it does is give you an idea what the player's point output would be in the NHL for that given year. But if you really want you can get a feel for how a player is progressing by tracking his NHLe from year to year. Not a very valuable measure, but it at least is application of a measure consistently.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SebC

Please, show that NHLe has diminished predictive value for "projects".

The problem with fixating on Jankowski's NHLe, and to an extent Poirier and co, is as follows:

1) Is his deployment on a team that rolls four lines evenly the same and make them focus on development over stats accounted for? Does NHLe account for his minutes distribution (14 minutes a game VS 22 minutes a game)? Is there a sacrifice in his stats as a center in a system playing essentially "third defenseman" versus a center playing "third winger"?

2) Does NHLe account for the physical disadvantage he's been playing through? How effective do you think a 170lb Milan Lucic would be in a mens league VS a 230lb Milan Lucic? Would this 60lb difference in weight (and subsequencely balance, strength, confidence) fail to be reflected in Lucic's statistics in a mens league (which College Hockey is)? Because as a Senior Jankowski still isn't a fully developed player, he's lacking in size despite size being one of his projected strengths as an NHLer.

3) Does NHLe account for Quality of Teammate? Jonathan Toews in his two college seasons played with TJ Oshie (#24OA). Some other teammates on that team include Travis Zajac (#20OA) and Drew Stafford(#13OA). Last season Brandon Hickey played with Jack Eichel (#2OA). Jankowski's highest drafted teammates in his four seasons at Providence, aside from Jon Gillies, have been (a) Eric Foley (#78OA), who as an 185lb freshman this season put up... the same stats Jankowski did as a 168 Freshman on a much lower scoring team and (b) Jake Walman (#82OA), who only broke out as a Sophomore during Janko's senior year. It'll be interesting to see if Walman can produce the same "NHLe" without Jankowski and co or he's a victim of the same situation that caused a drop in Hickey's stats without Eichel. Again though, both of these players did not really break out until Jankowski's senior season, which co-incidentally happens to be the first 40 point season Providence has had under Leaman.

I am not saying NHLe is a useless stat, far from it. But it's useless in isolation.

[Sylvanfan]

So at this point is it safe to say that the Flames have made an offer to Jankowski and he's deciding whether or not he's going to accept?

At this point I'd rather have Jankowski than the comp pick. Maybe the Rangers are tampering....again.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

From my understanding, in order to accrue a professional season he needs to play 10 or more games, so even though he will burn a contract year, the summer of 2018 he will be finishing his second pro season and still be exempt.

Same thing applies to Connor, unless they don't sign him by next summer.

That's what I thought too, but Bob McKenzie tweeted this yesterday:

"If there's an expansion draft in June, 2017, I'm told Connor, if he signs now and plays this season and next, won't need to be protected."

"But it's also possible an expansion draft could happen in June, 2018. In that case, Connor would have to be protected if he plays games now."

"So, if you're WPG, do you sign Connor now and maybe have to use protected spot in 2018 IF there's expansion draft. Or do you play it safe?"

https://twitter.com/tsnbobmckenzie

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

So at this point is it safe to say that the Flames have made an offer to Jankowski and he's deciding whether or not he's going to accept?

At this point I'd rather have Jankowski than the comp pick. Maybe the Rangers are tampering....again.

Friedman already reported last night the Flames have made their offer.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

So at this point is it safe to say that the Flames have made an offer to Jankowski and he's deciding whether or not he's going to accept?

At this point I'd rather have Jankowski than the comp pick. Maybe the Rangers are tampering....again.

I will be shocked if Jankowski isn't welcomes into the Flame fold by lunch Monday.

[Henry Fool]

I'm sure he'll sign. I don't see why he wouldn't.