[PGT] Flames 4. Habs 1. Backstrom solid in Flames debut

[nmhen]

I'm happy for Backy. A part of me hopes he beats the Wild Thursday, just to rub their nose in it.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Subtracting Russel and Wideman and Engelland from the flames roster and inserting Kevin, Nakladal, and Wotherspoon makes our bottom 3 far tougher to play against.

Kevin in particular has been a really good fit. Acquiring him for pending UFA Russell alone would imo be looking good - the 2nd (potential 1st) and decent prospect are gravy at this point.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

To post a .918 with the AAA chances our team has given up over the past year would be a goalie standing on his head and playing at a top ten level despite only being a top twenty save percentage.

Good goalies =/= average goalies. Caged Great said an average goalie would post a .918 because it's an average save percentage. That's untrue. Many goalies posting a .918 are protected behind strong team defense. A .918 on this team would be an almost Lundqvist-esque performance.

You are wrong.

This season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.4
Goals Against/Game: 2.01

Last season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.7
Goals Against/Game: 1.88

This team is allowing fewer high danger scoring chances than last season. But significantly more goals on the chances they do allow.

I think I should repeat this. This team is allowing fewer high quality chances against than last season.

Given that the Flames have scored about the same amount as last season, average goaltending would put this team in playoff contention (which is exactly what happened last year). There have been team d breakdowns for sure but this team was sunk by their goalies.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by nmhen

I'm happy for Backy. A part of me hopes he beats the Wild Thursday, just to rub their nose in it.

Yeah, nice feel-good story when there's nothing playoffs-wise to cheer about at this time of year.

He unfortunately didn't deserve the goaltending job by the end of it though, it's not like a Luongo and Vancouver situation where he was publicly disgraced unfairly. I just hope he plays well in his old building, and their fans get to give him a salute. Not quite as much nose-rubbing

[DynastyEra]

Originally Posted by heep223

You are wrong.

This season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.4
Goals Against/Game: 2.01

Last season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.7
Goals Against/Game: 1.88

This team is allowing fewer high danger scoring chances than last season. But significantly more goals on the chances they do allow.

I think I should repeat this. This team is allowing fewer high quality chances against than last season.

Given that the Flames have scored about the same amount as last season, average goaltending would put this team in playoff contention (which is exactly what happened last year). There have been team d breakdowns for sure but this team was sunk by their goalies.

Those breakdowns happened in the Kipper era, the difference is he bailed them out more often than not. Those types of saves are easy to forget, but if its a non-save, they are etched into your memory.
The biggest issue with the goaltending this year IMO is the deflating goals, the unscreened floaters, the heavy rebound tap ins...If the Flames managed to get one or two big saves in a game on a defensive breakdown - that could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. Directly impacts confidence through the lineup as well.

Last year Hiller had an incredible game early in the season vs Chicago. That set the tone for the year, if he didn't win that game for us we may have not made the playoffs. I know that may sound crazy, but confidence is the biggest x-factor in hockey.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by heep223

You are wrong.

This season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.4
Goals Against/Game: 2.01

Last season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.7
Goals Against/Game: 1.88

This team is allowing fewer high danger scoring chances than last season. But significantly more goals on the chances they do allow.

I think I should repeat this. This team is allowing fewer high quality chances against than last season.

Given that the Flames have scored about the same amount as last season, average goaltending would put this team in playoff contention (which is exactly what happened last year). There have been team d breakdowns for sure but this team was sunk by their goalies.

We didn't get average goaltending last year. We had full months where Hiller and Ramo (and Ortio) were above average while the struggling goalie sat on the bench until he found his game again. It was the perfect storm to get league average save percentages last season. Also that high danger scoring chances against stat you posted, you do realize that was 6th last in the NHL right? That we had league average save percentages while giving up more dangerous chances than 24 other teams should give that away. We got the bounces last year. Especially late in the season after Giordano went down, where Hiller and Ramo were both making a ton of saves every game. That's also how we beat the Canucks - Hiller was playing incredible. Not average.

In fact Hiller's 5v5 high danger save percentage last season was 7th best in the NHL among goalies who played a similar amount of minutes. 7th best. That's not average. He was ahead of Rask, Quick, Varlamov, Bobrovsky, Bishop, Rinne, Crawford, Andersen in that stat.

[AcGold]

Originally Posted by heep223

You are wrong.

This season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.4
Goals Against/Game: 2.01

Last season (even strength)
High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Mins: 11.7
Goals Against/Game: 1.88

This team is allowing fewer high danger scoring chances than last season. But significantly more goals on the chances they do allow.

I think I should repeat this. This team is allowing fewer high quality chances against than last season.

Given that the Flames have scored about the same amount as last season, average goaltending would put this team in playoff contention (which is exactly what happened last year). There have been team d breakdowns for sure but this team was sunk by their goalies.

This is exactly what I figured. The team defense doesn't actually seem that bad. Brodie, Gio, Hamilton and Engelland are really really solid dmen. It so often seems like they are incredibly nervous to make a mistake because a shot from anywhere could go in the back of the net.

There's shots you should stop and shots you shouldn't stop. Our goalies haven't really stopped either most of the season, nearly every game has felt anxious where at any moment an odd man rush could mean a goal. It often seemed like the more momentum we built in our favor would work against us because a single defensive lapse would result in a goal against after sustained pressure, a wrister that some goalies would save and our goalies didn't. An incredibly demoralizing thing to go through repeatedly.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

We didn't get average goaltending last year. We had full months where Hiller and Ramo (and Ortio) were above average. It was the perfect storm to get league average save percentages last season. Also that high danger scoring chances against stat you posted, you do realize that was 6th last in the NHL right? That we had league average save percentages while giving up more dangerous chances than 24 other teams should give that away. We got the bounces last year. Especially late in the season after Giordano went down, where Hiller and Ramo were both making a ton of saves every game. That's also how we beat the Canucks - Hiller was playing incredible. Not average.

2 goals on 3 shots in game 6 is far from incredible.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

We didn't get average goaltending last year. We had full months where Hiller and Ramo (and Ortio) were above average while the struggling goalie sat on the bench until he found his game again. It was the perfect storm to get league average save percentages last season. Also that high danger scoring chances against stat you posted, you do realize that was 6th last in the NHL right? That we had league average save percentages while giving up more dangerous chances than 24 other teams should give that away. We got the bounces last year. Especially late in the season after Giordano went down, where Hiller and Ramo were both making a ton of saves every game. That's also how we beat the Canucks - Hiller was playing incredible. Not average.

In fact Hiller's 5v5 high danger save percentage last season was 8th best in the NHL among goalies who played a similar amount of minutes. 8th best. That's not average.

The Flames give up a lot of chances and also score lots of goals. Its the system they play.

Two things killed this year's team:
1) Goaltending
2) Special Teams

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The Flames give up a lot of chances and also score lots of goals. Its the system they play.

THat doesn't make it an effective system.

Two things killed this year's team:
1) Goaltending
2) Special Teams

Relative to last year yes.
Relative to the rest of the NHL no. They are in the bottom third of the league in every defensive metric.

[PeteMoss]

Also not sure where 8th comes from. Looking at war-on-ice, he's behind Allen, Hammond, Holtby, Halak, Luongo, Price, Talbot, Dubnyk, Anderson, Scheinder, Rinne and Miller. Fairly close to average.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Also not sure where 8th comes from. Looking at war-on-ice, he's behind Allen, Hammond, Holtby, Halak, Luongo, Price, Talbot, Dubnyk, Anderson, Scheinder, Rinne and Miller. Fairly close to average.

Regular Season
Hiller played 2331.1 5v5 minutes last season
Cutoff: 2250 5v5 minutes played.


Hiller' was seventh among goalies who played a similar amount of minutes. I miscounted when I posted eighth.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

THat doesn't make it an effective system.



Relative to last year yes.
Relative to the rest of the NHL no. They are in the bottom third of the league in every defensive metric.

And if those two were fixed - they'd be a playoff contender again and everyone could whine about the advanced stats being dopey or the Flames being lucky.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Regular Season
Hiller played 2331.1 5v5 minutes last season
Cutoff: 2250 5v5 minutes played.


Hiller' was seventh among goalies who played a similar amount of minutes. I miscounted when I posted eighth.

So its basically an arbitrary number used so Hiller would qualify but others wouldn't?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

And if those two were fixed - they'd be a playoff contender again and everyone could whine about the advanced stats being dopey or the Flames being lucky.

Like I said, this team needs better-than-average goaltending just to get an average save percentage. That's what we got last year, better-than-average goaltending just to get an average save percentage.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Like I said, this team needs better-than-average goaltending just to get an average save percentage. That's what we got last year, better-than-average goaltending just to get an average save percentage.

You think we had better than average goaltending last year? Better than average goaltending and yet we didn't have a clear cut number 1 goalie. So you are saying both hiller and Ramo were better then the average starter?

Haha hahahahahahahahahagahahaha.

Hahahahahahahahahagahahaha.

I have nothing else to say.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

So its basically an arbitrary number used so Hiller would qualify but others wouldn't?

If you drop that arbitrary number all the way down to 1700 minutes the only change is Ryan Miller gets added into the mix and pushes Hiller down to eighth. Drop it to 1300 and you add Talbot (great goalie, backup minutes) and Allen (great goalie, backup minutes).

Any way you present it, Hiller had a top ten high danger save percentage last year, which was a huge contribution to a team that was 25th in high danger chances against. He also played bonafide starter minutes (2300+ minutes > 1300+ minutes). It's pretty straight forward.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

You think we had better than average goaltending last year? Better than average goaltending and yet we didn't have a clear cut number 1 goalie. So you are saying both hiller and Ramo were better then the average starter?

Haha hahahahahahahahahagahahaha.

Hahahahahahahahahagahahaha.

I have nothing else to say.

Not relevant, but what's with the 'G' in your laughs? Do you have something caught in your throat?

Anywho, I agree that Hiller and Ramo were not better than average. They were about as average as average can be.

[Benched]

so if they were above average on high quality scoring chances...

and ended up about league average overall for stats...

we can conclude they were below average on 'weak' scoring chances...


Average.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

You think we had better than average goaltending last year? Better than average goaltending and yet we didn't have a clear cut number 1 goalie. So you are saying both hiller and Ramo were better then the average starter?

Haha hahahahahahahahahagahahaha.

Hahahahahahahahahagahahaha.

I have nothing else to say.

I've posted this in the past but:

Save percentages by month/series:

		Hiller		Ortio		Ramo
October		0.941		N/A		0.914
November	0.885		N/A		0.925
December	0.923		N/A		0.867
January		0.901		0.931		0.923 (1GP)
February	0.908		N/A		0.945
March		0.925		N/A		0.907
April		0.953		.773 (1GP)	N/A
vs Canucks 	0.931		N/A		0.905
vs Ducks 	.786 (1GP)	N/A		0.907

Every month we got a goalie to stand on his head (Hiller more often) while the other goalie backed up. And that's overall save percentages not just high danger. The Tandem worked. Overall they got league average save percentages as a team, but they won a lot of games off of goaltending while giving up a ton of chances. There was not a month where we got below a .923 save percentage from at least one of the two goalies.

And again, a team that gives up more dangerous chances than 24 other teams do, yet has a 16th place save percentage, is not a team where the goalies are letting that team down. The reason that there weren't any months where both goalies were playing well, was because neither goalie is a #1. But don't confuse that with "both goalies played better-than-average at times, enough to post a league average save percentage overall despite getting some terrible chances against" . They did.

Average Save Percentage =/= Average Goaltending.

If Caged Great wants a .918 save percentage in front of this team, we need an above average goaltender or two guys playing in perfect synergy, or an improvement of team defense. One, the other, or preferably both.