THN Futurewatch Flames ranking

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

do you really think McDonald is as good of a prospect as Demko?

I am going to compare the two prospect to two 25-year-old NHL goalies.

I liken McDonald to NHL Goalie A, who has started 13, 32, and now 40 games and has a career SV% of .916 and was drafted sooner.

I liken Demko to NHL Goalie B, who has started 28, 54, and now 37 games and has a career SV% of .918 and was drafted later.

Goalie A took longer to establish himself as an NHL starter, and if you look back at their 23 year old seasons alone one might have jumped to "Goalie B > Goalie A".

But right now, I would personally rather have Goalie A (Jake Allen) over Goalie B (Frederik Andersen) and the final product is a better goaltender in my personal opinion. Andersen won the sprint, but Allen is winning the marathon. And we still won't really know who had a better career for years.

So judging 19 year old goalie prospects in completely different leagues is pointless, unless you've watched a lot more of both leagues and both players than you likely actually have. The reason I'd rather have Allen over Andersen is just based on what I see, not who's putting up better %s right now (though that's Allen, too)

Overall, right now It's probably easy to say Demko is a better goalie than McDonald. But ultimately McDonald's got elements Demko doesn't and it's up to him and to the development coaches to get McDonald to where the draft people think McDonald can be.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by New Era

Those veteran guys are on the team right now because they have one way contracts. It isn't living up to their performance expectations or anything else. It is because of their contract status.

I would agree with that but I'm not sure why you assume Arnold will be as good as those guys, much less better.

The locker room probably wouldn't respond well to a vet like Stajan getting buried so a guy who isn't as good can play in his spot, all because Stajan is perceived as being overpaid.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I would agree with that but I'm not sure why you assume Arnold will be as good as those guys, much less better.

The locker room probably wouldn't respond well to a vet like Stajan getting buried so a guy who isn't as good can play in his spot, all because Stajan is perceived as being overpaid.

We should really be concerned about the reaction in the dressing room of the 28th place team in the league? There's part of the problem. We don't want to hurt feelings now, do we?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by New Era

We should really be concerned about the reaction in the dressing room of the 28th place team in the league? There's part of the problem. We don't want to hurt feelings now, do we?

I guess not but shouldn't there at least be a reason to rock the boat? What if management just doesn't think Arnold is ready? I haven't watched any AHL games but maybe he's underperforming at that level?

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

What happened to Hickey? He was the lone collegiate invite to team Canada WCJ and has been quiet since. There might have been a moment last year where he was the Flames best defensive prospect.

Just another example of how development is not a smooth path. There will be ups and downs with these kids.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by New Era

Those veteran guys are on the team right now because they have one way contracts. It isn't living up to their performance expectations or anything else. It is because of their contract status.

So we can't use stats to say why Prospect A is better than Prospect B, but you can say that Arnold is a better player than current NHLers without giving any evidence or reason?

Makes sense.

By the way I hope you realize that Arnold has regressed this year compared to last. He is below .5 PPG and is -8. Agostino has as many goals as Arnold has points. But ya he's much better than Agostino and Hamilton because New Era said so.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

What happened to Hickey?

This kid:

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=245142

really took a lot of Hickey's offense away from him.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

Stats. Agostino and Hamilton are our most steady offensive players.

Arnold plays Centre and is supposedly a defense first type of player. Tough to see where he's at until he gets a look in the NHL.

Agostino got called up first? So how can you say it's solely based on stats? The management and coaching feel Agostino has been the player more worthy of opportunity.

Likewise, Hamilton was been an anchor in Stockton for the most of season

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Agostino got called up first? So how can you say it's solely based on stats? The management and coaching feel Agostino has been the player more worthy of opportunity.

Likewise, Hamilton was been an anchor in Stockton for the most of season

Hamilton is third in team scoring. Or did you mean anchor in a good way?

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Agostino got called up first? So how can you say it's solely based on stats? The management and coaching feel Agostino has been the player more worthy of opportunity.

Likewise, Hamilton was been an anchor in Stockton for the most of season

What are you babbling about now? I was backing up your point that Agostino should be higher than Arnold, but thanks for showing once again that I should never agree with you.

Flames needed an offensive player to call-up and play in the top-9. Agostino has been steady all year and has solid stats to back it up. He matched last years point production in 17 less games played.

Arnold went from .62 PPG to .47 PPG, but I assume he is one of the top shutdown guys in Stockton this year. Still hard not to draw red flags from that. Also had injury troubles this season.

While you need to look past the stats when comparing an offensive LWer to a defensive Centreman, I still think Agostino should be ahead of Arnold in the depth chart all things considered.

The Flames have enough depth players who can't score. I still see Agostino as having 2nd-3rd line offensive upside.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

So we can't use stats to say why Prospect A is better than Prospect B, but you can say that Arnold is a better player than current NHLers without giving any evidence or reason?

Makes sense.

By the way I hope you realize that Arnold has regressed this year compared to last. He is below .5 PPG and is -8. Agostino has as many goals as Arnold has points. But ya he's much better than Agostino and Hamilton because New Era said so.

Position had nothing to do with that call up either, right? Nope. Flames just looked at stats and said this guy gets the call up. You don't need scouts or coaches any more. You just need HockeyDB and a spreadsheet to run a hockey team!



I don't think Arnold has regressed as much as the role he's been cast in are different. Kind of like Poirier. Guys get asked to focus on certain aspects of their game and their production may suffer. That does not mean their game has regressed. Players can see huge development leaps while producing less, because their play away from the puck improves. I'm also not that concerned about +/- because of the role the players are cast in. If a defensive player was a +20, I would be impressed. But because of the role that player is cast in, the type of players he has to play against, and the type of situations he's forced into, a negative +/- is not to be unexpected.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

By the way I hope you realize that Arnold has regressed this year compared to last. He is below .5 PPG and is -8. Agostino has as many goals as Arnold has points.

Bill Arnold the individual has not regressed, though. He's progressed.

Bill Arnold the center between Sven Baertschi and a red hot Emile Poirier, however hasn't produced as much centering the likes of Austin Caroll, Hunter Smith, Bryce Van Brabant, Turner Elson, etc etc.

Know who else saw their production "regress" this year? Ortio and Hathaway, the two players who are up on actual recalls.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

Flames needed an offensive player to call-up and play in the top-9. Agostino has been steady all year and has solid stats to back it up. He matched last years point production in 17 less games played.

Arnold went from .62 PPG to .47 PPG, but I assume he is one of the top shutdown guys in Stockton this year. Still hard not to draw red flags from that. Also had injury troubles this season.

While you need to look past the stats when comparing an offensive LWer to a defensive Centreman, I still think Agostino should be ahead of Arnold in the depth chart all things considered.

The Flames have enough depth players who can't score. I still see Agostino as having 2nd-3rd line offensive upside.

Agreed on all points except whatever beef was going on there. Not sure what that's all about...

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by New Era

Position had nothing to do with that call up either, right? Nope. Flames just looked at stats and said this guy gets the call up. You don't need scouts or coaches any more. You just need HockeyDB and a spreadsheet to run a hockey team!



I don't think Arnold has regressed as much as the role he's been cast in are different. Kind of like Poirier. Guys get asked to focus on certain aspects of their game and their production may suffer. That does not mean their game has regressed. Players can see huge development leaps while producing less, because their play away from the puck improves. I'm also not that concerned about +/- because of the role the players are cast in. If a defensive player was a +20, I would be impressed. But because of the role that player is cast in, the type of players he has to play against, and the type of situations he's forced into, a negative +/- is not to be unexpected.

Bandwagon is right that if stats are to be used to support a theory, they should also be useable to refute one.

But stats aside, if a player can't dominate at the amateur level, they rarely do much better at the pro level. Similarly, with the jump to the NHL from the AHL. Nobody is saying Arnold is going to be a first line NHLer, but the 4th line competition at the NHL level is usually better or par than first line comp at the AHL level. So why can we expect Arnold to be a 4th liner (ie, be better than some 4th liners some of the time) if he can't dominate at the AHL level?

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bill Arnold the individual has not regressed, though. He's progressed.

Bill Arnold the center between Sven Baertschi and a red hot Emile Poirier, however hasn't produced as much centering the likes of Austin Caroll, Hunter Smith, Bryce Van Brabant, Turner Elson, etc etc.

Know who else saw their production "regress" this year? Ortio and Hathaway, the two players who are up on actual recalls.

Well, Arnold isn't going to get much better at the NHL level. Sure Jooris, Bouma, Ferland, Bollig, etc are NHLers, but those guys face just as good NHLers. You either stand out and be better than your opponents and teammates, or you don't.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Well, Arnold isn't going to get much better at the NHL level. Sure Jooris, Bouma, Ferland, Bollig, etc are NHLers, but those guys face just as good NHLers. You either stand out and be better than your opponents and teammates, or you don't.

I'm not sure what you're saying to be honest.

Arnold projects as a 4th liner, maybe 3rd liner if everything falls into place. No one was saying otherwise last year or this year.

4th line centers are not point producers. Matt Stajan is on pace for 14 points. Bill Arnold has an NHL equivalency of 17 points. Depth players are role players and what matters is how effectively they're learning to fill their roles. Not how often they are being set up for one-timers on power plays in the minor leagues.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bill Arnold the individual has not regressed, though. He's progressed.

Bill Arnold the center between Sven Baertschi and a red hot Emile Poirier, however hasn't produced as much centering the likes of Austin Caroll, Hunter Smith, Bryce Van Brabant, Turner Elson, etc etc.

Know who else saw their production "regress" this year? Ortio and Hathaway, the two players who are up on actual recalls.

Hmm okay so he progressed by dropping from the 2nd line to the 4th line in the AHL?

While it may explain the point discrepancy, it equally points to how the organization views Arnold. A depth player who is getting passed by the likes of Hamilton, Agostino, Grant, Shore, etc...

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I'm not sure what you're saying to be honest.

Arnold projects as a 4th liner, maybe 3rd liner if everything falls into place. No one was saying otherwise last year or this year.

4th line centers are not point producers. Matt Stajan is on pace for 14 points. Bill Arnold has an NHL equivalency of 17 points. Depth players are role players and what matters is how effectively they're learning to fill their roles. Not how often they are being set up for one-timers on power plays in the minor leagues.

No, I'm saying that 4th liners at the NHL level usually play better than most of the competition at the AHL level. Look at Raymond. He immediate became one of the better players in Stockton. Arnold is going to have show he can beat AHL competition before he regularly plays in the NHL. Stajan produced at the amateur levels, so do most 4th liners, and I don't even think Stajan is a great role player

Simplistically put, Arnold won't be a 4th line NHLer until he's a good 1st or 2nd line AHLer.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

No, I'm saying that 4th liners at the NHL level usually play better than most of the competition at the AHL level. Look at Raymond. He immediate became one of the better players in Stockton. Arnold is going to have show he can beat AHL competition before he regularly plays in the NHL. Stajan produced at the amateur levels, so do most 4th liners, and I don't even think Stajan is a great role player

Simplistically put, Arnold won't be a 4th line NHLer until he's a good 1st or 2nd line AHLer.

Last season Ferland had 0.469 PPG in the AHL. He was playing on our team in the NHL Playoffs that same season. He has more points in less games than Matt Stajan this season.

Bill Arnold has 0.462 PPG in the AHL this season while playing a defensive center role.

Different players get assigned different roles in the minors and that doesn't mean only 1st and 2nd line AHLers become NHLers. And while production is better than no production, it's not the barometer that the team itself is using. Garnet Hathaway was ninth on the Heat in points, yet they burned a callup on him before he even got a chance to debut in the NHL. They're looking at details, opportunism, physical aspect etc. They're putting players in positions where, when they move up to the NHL, they're not going to be shell-shocked at the different role. A guy who's getting 1st line power play time in the AHL, but you're projecting as a 4th liner, you don't want to waste his development in a role that's just going to break his confidence when he moves up to the big leagues. The minor leagues exist to build habits, and one of those habits is being consistent even when you're not getting prime offensive opportunities, because a 4th line NHLer rarely gets put in position to score where as a 1st like AHLer is scoring gimmie goals every game.

One of the biggest advantages for Bill in this role, is that he's the driver of his line. Not Gaudreau. Not Hayes. Not Baertschi. Not Poirier. Not Agostino. Not Shore. Him. That's important because he's going to have to be the driver if his line in the NHL, not Bouma, not Hathaway, not Bollig, etc. As a center being the driver of your line is very important to the success of your line. This is a problem we're seeing up in the NHL where Monahan's inability to drive his line is becoming a huge team weakness and his individual development is stagnating due to Gaudreau.

Long story short, they are putting Arnold in a better position to succeed in the NHL by making him focus on the things that will make him a successful NHLer, rather than handing him opportunity to be a very successful AHLer. And it's good that Grant and Hamilton have played well ahead of him on the lineup, and maybe they're both also deserving of callups sooner than he is. Which doesn't mean Arnold's NHL upside is in jeopardy or that his development or play have stagnated. It means his production is down in a role that expects his production to be down. Nothing more, nothing less.

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by New Era

Position had nothing to do with that call up either, right? Nope. Flames just looked at stats and said this guy gets the call up. You don't need scouts or coaches any more. You just need HockeyDB and a spreadsheet to run a hockey team!



I don't think Arnold has regressed as much as the role he's been cast in are different. Kind of like Poirier. Guys get asked to focus on certain aspects of their game and their production may suffer. That does not mean their game has regressed. Players can see huge development leaps while producing less, because their play away from the puck improves. I'm also not that concerned about +/- because of the role the players are cast in. If a defensive player was a +20, I would be impressed. But because of the role that player is cast in, the type of players he has to play against, and the type of situations he's forced into, a negative +/- is not to be unexpected.

How people are disagreeing with you is quite baffling to me. Lol spot on with your analysis.

Arnold's primary role in Stockton is to play against top line players as they are trying to put him in a position for the best success at the NHL level.

If people relied on hockeydb less and actually watched one game, they would see what Billy does.


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