Both presumptive nominees are basically hated by 50% of their own party. I'm curious to hear how you think that that will translate into a record high voter turnout.
What do the senate party clowns have to do with voter turnout? The GOP has laughed/sneered and hated Trump from the get go yet voter turnouts are record breaking for the republicans.
Both presumptive nominees are basically hated by 50% of their own party. I'm curious to hear how you think that that will translate into a record high voter turnout.
More and more, fewer and fewer Americans can identify with the complete platforms of either the Democratic or Republican party. If it ends up being Trump vs. Sanders there will be a massive number of independents who have never voted before who will this time.
I think whoever ends up as either party's nominee there is going to be substantial turn out, but I suspect there will be more motivated by a desire to stop the other party's candidate than a desire to see their own elected. I think this would be particularly true in a Trump-Sanders matchup, but nearly equally true in either a Trump-Hillary or Cruz-Hillary.
The way to drive numbers down is to get to a brokered convention and get Romney as the Republican nominee.
Romney-Clinton and huge numbers of Americans get fed up and decide there's no real difference between the two and voter turnout plummets.
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Any way both sets of supporters are awful and pretty much deserve each other. Maybe they'll bond over their love of conspiracies, who knows.
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Originally Posted by Dan02
Indeed, a bunch of Bernie supporters to go a Trump rally just to cause problems, yet we're supposed to blame the Trump supporters?
There is a huge difference between Trump supporters who are encouraged by Trump to acts of violence vs. some randoms that use Bernie's name to incite violence. Bernie has unequivocally denounced them whereas Trump openly tweets for his people to beat others up. Time at 225 seconds.
Also as a Canadian on the outside looking in, politics in the States have become so insanely divisive that talking to Americans about it is almost impossible without someone taking offense imho. Mind you the Canadian view is so far skewed to the left compared to everyone down in the south we would be considered communist.
New polls this morning. Florida and North Carolina appear to be easy wins for Hillary and Trump, both up 25+ points in FL and 10+ in NC. Ohio is very tight on the GOP side with a deadlock between Trump and Kasich. Hillary slightly ahead in Ohio and Illinois, slightly behind in Missouri. So basically tomorrow is all about the GOP in Ohio, a Trump win and he's effectively the nominee. Rubio is finished obviously, and will be the biggest disappointment in recent political history.
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This is amazing. Trump is so divisive and unlikable that he's even managed to drive a wedge into BREITBART, of all outlets.
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Originally Posted by Ben Shapiro
Andrew built his life and his career on one mission: fight the bullies. But Andrew’s life mission has been betrayed. Indeed, Breitbart News, under the chairmanship of Steve Bannon, has put a stake through the heart of Andrew’s legacy. In my opinion, Steve Bannon is a bully, and has sold out Andrew’s mission in order to back another bully, Donald Trump; he has shaped the company into Trump’s personal Pravda, to the extent that he abandoned and undercut his own reporter, Breitbart News’ Michelle Fields, in order to protect Trump’s bully campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who allegedly assaulted Michelle. I spoke with Michelle the night after the incident. She told me her story. That story was backed by audiotape, eyewitness testimony from The Washington Post’s Ben Terris, physical bruises, and video tape.
Full resignation statement:
Spoiler!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ben Shapiro
As a close personal friend and mentee of Andrew Breitbart’s, it saddens me tremendously to announce that as of 9:00 p.m. Pacific Time, I have resigned from Breitbart News as editor-at-large. I met Andrew Breitbart when I was seventeen years old and remained his friend until his tragic death; I signed on with Breitbart News two weeks before Andrew’s death because I believed in his mission.
I am proud of what we accomplished in the years following his death, fighting back against the leftist media and debunking the left’s key narratives. I have many good friends at Breitbart News, including editor-in-chief Alex Marlow and editor-at-large John Nolte, and I admire CEO Larry Solov for his dedication to ensuring a financial future for Andrew’s widow, Susie, and his four children.
Andrew built his life and his career on one mission: fight the bullies. But Andrew’s life mission has been betrayed. Indeed, Breitbart News, under the chairmanship of Steve Bannon, has put a stake through the heart of Andrew’s legacy. In my opinion, Steve Bannon is a bully, and has sold out Andrew’s mission in order to back another bully, Donald Trump; he has shaped the company into Trump’s personal Pravda, to the extent that he abandoned and undercut his own reporter, Breitbart News’ Michelle Fields, in order to protect Trump’s bully campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who allegedly assaulted Michelle. I spoke with Michelle the night after the incident. She told me her story. That story was backed by audiotape, eyewitness testimony from The Washington Post’s Ben Terris, physical bruises, and video tape.
Both Lewandowski and Trump maligned Michelle in the most repulsive fashion. Meanwhile, Breitbart News not only stood by and did nothing outside of tepidly asking for an apology, they then attempted to abandon Michelle by silencing staff from tweeting or talking about the issue. Finally, in the ultimate indignity, they undermined Michelle completely by running a poorly-evidenced conspiracy theory as their lead story in which Michelle and Terris had somehow misidentified Lewandowski.
This is disgusting. Andrew never would have stood for it. No news outlet would stand for it.
Nobody should.
This truly breaks my heart. But, as I am fond of saying, facts don’t care about your feelings, and the facts are undeniable: Breitbart News has become precisely the reverse of what Andrew would have wanted. Steve Bannon and those who follow his lead should be ashamed of themselves
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This all may be moot depending on what happens tomorrow, but here's one of the better articles I've read at what happens at the delegate level between now and a contested convention:
Sanders making gains vs Clinton, now too close to call in Illinois and Missouri. Florida and North Carolina polls still show they heavily favour Clinton, unless pollsters are as off there as they were in Michigan.
So basically tomorrow is all about the GOP in Ohio, a Trump win and he's effectively the nominee.
I wouldn't go that far.
A Trump win in both will effectively end the campaigns of Rubio and Kasich and once that happens Trump would need to start taking outright majorities in a 1 on 1 match-up against Cruz instead of getting by with mere pluralities. From what I understand Rubio supporters are most likely to support Cruz (don't know about Kasich) as a second choice.
For the record I think Trump wins Florida and Kasich takes Ohio.
Yeah, that's still a doomsday scenario with the two worst options dueling it out to become the nominee. As has been discussed ad nauseum, Cruz is probably worse, and you'd almost have to cheer for Trump there...
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Sanders making gains vs Clinton, now too close to call in Illinois and Missouri. Florida and North Carolina polls still show they heavily favour Clinton, unless pollsters are as off there as they were in Michigan.
Pollsters are likely dead on this time. Numbers are actually pretty much the exact same as we've seen so far, Hillary wins the Democrat vote easily, Sanders wins the independent (and Republican, technically) vote easily. So really nothing has changed much, closed primaries mean easy Hillary wins, open primaries mean close races that could go either way. Decent chance we're here tomorrow night talking about Bernie "wins", but what will overall be a night where Hillary adds to the delegate lead.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Pollsters are likely dead on this time. Numbers are actually pretty much the exact same as we've seen so far, Hillary wins the Democrat vote easily, Sanders wins the independent (and Republican, technically) vote easily. So really nothing has changed much, closed primaries mean easy Hillary wins, open primaries mean close races that could go either way. Decent chance we're here tomorrow night talking about Bernie "wins", but what will overall be a night where Hillary adds to the delegate lead.
So really what that tells me is there a great many people deeply dissatisfied with the Democratic establishment but because of the close nature of the primary and caucus systems in some States they cannot voice the concern.
I've heard there are rules that you have to be a registered as much as a few months with a party in advance for some of these... seems like a poor system.
So really what that tells me is there a great many people deeply dissatisfied with the Democratic establishment but because of the close nature of the primary and caucus systems in some States they cannot voice the concern.
Not sure what you mean here. Really here's what's happening... the 2008 Democratic primary is repeating itself except this time Hillary Clinton has Obama's primary map and Sanders has the 2008 Clinton's map.
Which means that the two of them are likely to continue to exchange "wins" but Clinton's wins are gonna be big wins where she adds a bunch of delegates relative to Sanders and Sanders wins are gonna be small ones that don't really narrow the race.
So really what that tells me is there a great many people deeply dissatisfied with the Democratic establishment but because of the close nature of the primary and caucus systems in some States they cannot voice the concern.
I've heard there are rules that you have to be a registered as much as a few months with a party in advance for some of these... seems like a poor system.
Not really. A lot of non-Democrats are angry with the Democratic establishment. But actual registered Democrats want to continue the Obama years at over a 70% clip. This is why Bernie won't be able to get the margins he needs to close the delegate gap, he has high disdain for the Democratic Party and hasn't embraced Obama at all.
So his numbers are flying outside the Dems base, but predictably he is struggling big time with the base. Also why he has no shot of getting the super delegates to back him since he's, well, a DINO in this case. He's only using the name Democrat because, ironically, he needs to use the establishment's in place infrastructure to have any chance of ever winning a general election.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Will the US ever be ripe for a third party? I understand there are huge barriers, but maybe there is enough to overcome them now?
I was thinking how nice it would be to have Ralph Nader from 15 years ago run in this election. He probably could have stolen the left and center vote this time. Too bad he is 82 now and not too active.
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