[Trade] Russell to the Stars for Jokipakka, Pollock & 2nd (becomes 1st if conf finals)

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by united

Using a six-game sample size to evaluate a player is poor idea - unless it fits a narrative of course - as it's so volatile. Here's his six-game moving average - not a lot of consistency in a small sample.

Hmm, I don't know what I'm looking at here, but the trend seems to be consistently going down.

[Dion]

Small size does not define Stars' defenseman Kris Russell

"He's been huge here. He's the definition of a warrior," Stars captain Jamie Benn said. "He's not the biggest guy, but he does whatever it takes to win a hockey game."

Center Jason Spezza added: "He's a pro, he's steady back there. He blocks shots, he's been able to help on the power play with Klinger out, he's on the first penalty kill and he's just a good pro."

"He's very calm, very smart, he just plays like an experienced defenseman," said general manager Jim Nill after making the deal for Russell. "He makes the little plays."

"With the personnel we have out, we're asking more of our defensemen," Stars coach Lindy Ruff said. "Russell is giving us a lot."
And as for that size thing, Ruff said he sees no problem with Russell fitting in.

"There's players like that who are very effective when they are quick to get to the right place," Ruff said. "If you're quick to get back to the puck and you make a good first pass and hit the tape, you're usually out of the zone. If you can't get back quick enough, it doesn't matter if you're 6-7 or 5-6, because you're going to be under duress and you're probably going to be facing the wall."

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dall...n-kris-russell

[powderjunkie]

Good for him, he's earning his 5x5 this summer. Glad it won't be us paying it, but nice for him.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Happens with Russell stepping up both last years drive and this year in Dallas.

So with Brodie, Russell and Wideman out of the Flames lineup Hamilton has had 3 games out of 15 where he has had more than his normal 18-21 minutes

Over the same period Engelland has had only 1 game as a #1 pairing (25 minutes against (Pittsburgh..... but has upped his ice time to basically the same as Hamilton (19-21 minutes) up from his regular 10-14 minutes.

All credentials and expectations would have guessed that Hamilton would have been able to pick up an extra 5 minutes a game with Russell, Wideman and Brodie missing..... any ideas why not?

There it is - you took the long route this time but eventually came back to making this about Hamilton sucking.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Hmm, I don't know what I'm looking at here, but the trend seems to be consistently going down.

The eyeball test can fool you when looking for trends. One of the things you have to look out for is a stable series of data, followed by a sudden one-time change and then a new stable series. The random noise can fool you into not noticing the change and thinking there is a steady upward or downward trend.

The first few seasons on Russell's chart show him as an average defenceman on a bad Columbus team, in which he was better than most of his teammates. Then he spent most of two seasons as an average defenceman on a good St. Louis team, in which he was worse than most of his teammates. Finally you have three seasons with the Flames, when he was markedly worse than Giordano and Brodie. Since those two were playing nearly half the minutes, everybody else's relative numbers skew downwards.

A player's numbers relative to his teammates can't be treated as a series when he keeps changing teams.

[Enoch Root]

there is also a fairly marked upward trend within this season

[jayswin]

Not to further derail but I think if you had to break Ricardodw's issues with analysis into one major flaw that keeps has him so far off the mark it would be his seeming inability to see age or potential.

He views every player as what they are present day, and simply can't break it down any further than that. I think he's a guy who's so deep into his statistical breakdowns (like mad scientist levels) that if he can't go to an NHL.com game breakdown and speak to it with current stats he just simply can't accept.

Hamilton is the perfect example of a player Ricardodw can't accept. You tell him he's a young potential franchise D-man with huge upside, Ricardodw sees "franchise defenseman" and goes into full research mode to see why anyone could possibly be saying that and then finds present day stats to say "No he isn't".

Same issue with the entire Flames team; Everything for Ricardodw is present day. You tell him we have a young core full of star potential and it means nothing, all that matters is "what are they right now? You could take our current season and let's say three seasons ago and say make a comparison. Any rational fan would start looking at the future potential, development and outlook of the rosters and say "Obviously the current line-up is light years ahead.

Ricardodw would immerse himself in the season stats and come back with a novel, comparing players with every stat you could think of, and eventually proclaim whichever team had more points to be the better team. In his analysis, he wouldn't even fathom that the key producers this year are young potential stars with huge upside, and the key producers three years ago were vets on their way out. He just can't accept it because his whole world revolves around current game stats, at an insane level.

Seeing the forest for the trees is difficult for most humans in all situations, but when it comes to hockey analysis Ricardodw is living beside that tribe they found a few years ago, deep in the Amazon. I admire his passion, though. I'd actually enjoy his passion if he wasn't so condescending and dismissive of everyone around him.

[sa226]

I imagine Ricardo as "Bert Macklin. FBI. Always on the case!"

Except there's no mystery to solve.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Hmm, I don't know what I'm looking at here, but the trend seems to be consistently going down.

He's played consistently further up in the lineup. From sheltered bottom pair (a la Wotherspoon) in Columbus, to bottom pair (a la Wideman) in St. Louis, to middle pair in Calgary to "sometimes plays more at even strength than Mark Giordano". Overall factoring in quality of competition vs relative possession the most successful role over a decent sample size for him, was his role in St. Louis. We're all rooting for him to prove that wrong in Dallas and get us a 1st round pick though.

[Samonadreau]

Ya Russell is in his prime this is as good as it gets. It will be 3+ years before we see Hamilton's prime which is going to be legit top pairing. Not a good comparable.

[jayswin]

Sorry, I shouldn't say all that without adding a point. I don't believe he's trolling or trying to clog up threads, I think he's a super passionate fan, who's hyper focused on incomplete analysis that he determined years ago was fool proof.

It's fascinating to watch someone so attached to and so reliant upon what he perceives to be flawless analysis in the face of so much criticism. If I had one piece of advice for Ricardodw it would be to soften up in your views and truly read CP. All you do is post and then defend. Honestly man, as a fellow Flames fan I'm saying this in a genuine fashion;

I know a lot about the Flames, yet I come to CP and routinely have my opinions proven wrong by more knowledgeable fans than myself, that's why I read so much here without posting. Right now you have two steps to CP posting; 1) post 2) defend.

Make a concerted effort to spend some time on the third key of participating in a community...reading. For a few weeks just read everything and post nothing. Don't take anything you read and disprove it with your current set of parameters for how hockey analyses works. Just read......that's it. Trust me, it will help so much.

[JiriHrdina]

Yeah I don't think he's trolling. Rather - he only sees evidence that supports his theories. Something we all do to a certain extent.

[handgroen]

i think i'm prepare to say that just swapping jokipakka for russell straight across makes sense for both teams. one piece is owed a major payday and possibly doesn't fit the flames future plans the other is a young controlable asset on a modest salary that seems to fit with the flames stated direction of size and mobility. Dallas also isn't short changed in the deal as they get a legitimate boost in their cup quest from russell.

that's how i would break the deal down were it one for one. however this has the potential to be a grand slam for the flames with all that dallas added to the deal. i was also a little surprised BTW that we got a roster dman back in the trade at all, just doesn't happen too often that teams subtract any player from an area of need when loading up at the deadline.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

All credentials and expectations would have guessed that Hamilton would have been able to pick up an extra 5 minutes a game with Russell, Wideman and Brodie missing..... any ideas why not

Because a human being with biases and gut feelings controls ice time, not a robot basing on credentials, expectations or even necessarily actual production and performance.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Yeah I don't think he's trolling. Rather - he only sees evidence that supports his theories. Something we all do to a certain extent.

ricardformation bias™

[Itse]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

All credentials and expectations would have guessed that Hamilton would have been able to pick up an extra 5 minutes a game with Russell, Wideman and Brodie missing..... any ideas why not?

Hamilton is 22 and has played 200+ games. Barely out of prospect status.

Russell is 28, has played 500+ games. He's a veteran in his prime, playing his 9th season.

I don't see why you'd need to look further.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The eyeball test can fool you when looking for trends. One of the things you have to look out for is a stable series of data, followed by a sudden one-time change and then a new stable series. The random noise can fool you into not noticing the change and thinking there is a steady upward or downward trend.

The first few seasons on Russell's chart show him as an average defenceman on a bad Columbus team, in which he was better than most of his teammates. Then he spent most of two seasons as an average defenceman on a good St. Louis team, in which he was worse than most of his teammates. Finally you have three seasons with the Flames, when he was markedly worse than Giordano and Brodie. Since those two were playing nearly half the minutes, everybody else's relative numbers skew downwards.

A player's numbers relative to his teammates can't be treated as a series when he keeps changing teams.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

He's played consistently further up in the lineup. From sheltered bottom pair (a la Wotherspoon) in Columbus, to bottom pair (a la Wideman) in St. Louis, to middle pair in Calgary to "sometimes plays more at even strength than Mark Giordano". Overall factoring in quality of competition vs relative possession the most successful role over a decent sample size for him, was his role in St. Louis. We're all rooting for him to prove that wrong in Dallas and get us a 1st round pick though.

I really wish people posting stat charts for advanced stats would give a little more explanation on what the graph or chart is showing. Thanks for the explanation, very helpful in understanding what I'm looking at.

Originally Posted by handgroen

i think i'm prepare to say that just swapping jokipakka for russell straight across makes sense for both teams. one piece is owed a major payday and possibly doesn't fit the flames future plans the other is a young controlable asset on a modest salary that seems to fit with the flames stated direction of size and mobility. Dallas also isn't short changed in the deal as they get a legitimate boost in their cup quest from russell.

that's how i would break the deal down were it one for one. however this has the potential to be a grand slam for the flames with all that dallas added to the deal. i was also a little surprised BTW that we got a roster dman back in the trade at all, just doesn't happen too often that teams subtract any player from an area of need when loading up at the deadline.

I would have been happy with just Jokipakka coming back for Russell at the beginning of the year, the rest is all gravy.

Flames are desperate for young defenders. Traded for Hamilton, traded for Jokipakka, wouldn't surprise me to see them trade for another defender under 26 at the draft. If Smid goes on the LTIR for the remainder of his contract and the flames can move Wideman, suddenly there are some spots available in the lineup for ELC deals. Retaining salary on wideman + an ELC is still better for the cap than keeping Wideman on the roster.

Best case scenario they walk out of this draft with two potential NHL quality defenders under 23, hopefully one by trade and the other with a draft pick. Then, next year, wingers.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Because a human being with biases and gut feelings controls ice time, not a robot basing on credentials, expectations or even necessarily actual production and performance.

Should Hartley be fired over his mismanagement of Hamilton?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Should Hartley be fired over his mismanagement of Hamilton?

That's the wrong question. You should start off with "Has Hamilton been mismanaged?" rather than the assumption you so easily conclude.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Bingo

it's been an interesting trade deadline from an advanced stats perspective as players have done the opposite of what advanced stat practitioners have suggested

They all panned the Russell and Bodeker pick ups as they are possession boat anchors ...

Russell is #1 on the Stars in CF%Rel on the Stars after being the worst player on the Flames

Boedeker is #2 on the Avalanche in the same stat after being terrible in Ottawa.

So is it going from poor teams to better teams? (reach with the Avalanche)

The other case is the deal they lauded as brilliant as the Islanders used underlying stats as a Sears catalogue and picked up Shane Prince from the Senators but so far he is third last for the Islanders after being this amazing secret for the Senators.

Something to keep an eye on.

But I'll be interested to see what GranteedED has to say on the topic as well.

And Ricardo? He seems like that guy under a blanket in the basement of a house in the middle of nowhere peering out and professing to understand what's really going on. Brilliant trolling or shudder inducing oddness.

I think you need to look into the numbers a bit further as well.

Dallas is #3 team in CF% in the league right now (behind LA and Ana), but in these past few games with Russell getting tons of ice (basically the last 5, played relatively low minutes in his first game there) they've had very bad Corsi numbers overall.

Two games barely over 50% against Montreal and New Jersey and then three games below 45% - Ottawa, St.Louis and Chicago. So Russell may be doing better than his teammates, but the overall team performance is down.

But hard to say how much of that is due to Russell and how much is other factors - Klingberg's injury, etc.