The New American Politics thread

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

^EDIT: Yes, exactly - Michigan was a huge upset, and yet in spite of that, Hillary still met her delegate target for Michigan and exceeded it in Mississippi, with the result that Bernie actually ended that night worse off by the numbers - he was less likely to get the nomination after Tuesday than before it.


What do you mean when you say you "took a look"? Because there are a lot of states on this list that Hillary is leading by double digits based on the most recent info. I know after Michigan one might be less inclined to trust that, but I don't know what basis there would be for actually predicting the upset in eg Ohio or California or New Jersey.

My thoughts are that in general polling Sanders supporters is difficult as they are predominantly young and evade pollsters in many states who are (by law) not allowed to robocall cell phones.

I believe he will do extraordinarily well on the west coast due to the liberal bent of that area and I think he will win California by a lot as their ideals align closely with Sanders (environmentalism, liberalism, clean energy).

I honestly believe Sanders will do well in any state not in the SE 1/3 of the US.

I ran the numbers and if he wins those 31 states and gets 55% of the delegates in them, and 45% of the delegates in states he loses... he will miss winning the nomination by 50 delegates. Basically he would need to win big in a few states... especially California, to get past the mark. If he won California 65-35 it would be enough... or a few other states 60-40.

Obviously I could be way off, it's just what I see happening based on how things have gone so far.

One scenario I think could lead to a Sanders victory is that... there's a reasonable chance that he wins every primary from March 22nd through April 19th (Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and New York). If it happens he will have a lot of momentum and it's possible that kind of momentum could start to bring in big wins.

For the purposes of all of this I am ignoring superdelegates as I fully believe that if a candidate wins the most pledged delegates, the supers will follow.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I totally forgot how many closed primaries are actually coming up. Bernie pretty much has no chance of winning those since he can't rely on independents. So New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland and Pennsylvania are not just likely to be losses for Bernie, if the registered Dem numbers hold he's looking at 15-20 point losses in those contests, making the hole even deeper. So actually his path is even more difficult than I thought. He needs to start winning big like now to start convincing more registered Democrats he has a chance.

[GGG]

Even using the Michigan numbers as the true level of support of Sanders across all of the US and adjusting demographically Sanders still falls shorts of the delegates he needs.

So even in his best performance, where polls completely missed, he didn't win by enough for those results, even if replicated across the country, for him to accumulate a majority of delegates.

[Street Pharmacist]

Sanders chances without a massive change in his things are going are near zero

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I totally forgot how many closed primaries are actually coming up. Bernie pretty much has no chance of winning those since he can't rely on independents. So New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland and Pennsylvania are not just likely to be losses for Bernie, if the registered Dem numbers hold he's looking at 15-20 point losses in those contests, making the hole even deeper. So actually his path is even more difficult than I thought. He needs to start winning big like now to start convincing more registered Democrats he has a chance.

I don't think NY, Connecticut or Pennsylvania will be easy wins for Hillary. Bernie will make it close and possibly even win some of those states especially after he sweeps the midwest by winning Illinois, Missouri and Ohio.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Of course he does. He's likely to be the establishment choice in a brokered convention. I could see Rubio already having a deal with Kasich to be Rubio's VP in a brokered deal. You know the establishment wants nothing to do with Cruz.

Yeah, for now I think it makes sense to think of Rubio and Kasich's total delegates as one 'establishment' block. I've been trying to play out all the different ways a brokered convention could go. I haven't heard anything to confirm this but given Cruz obviously has a superior national-level ground game to anyone else, it wouldn't shock me if he's been able to get more delegates loyal to him than the hard totals of committed delegates (similar to how Paul last time had far more loyal delegates at the convention than his committed delegates).

If so, then Cruz probably thinks he has a strong path to winning a contested convention (finish second on the first ballot but prevent a Trump win, steal a bunch of Trump supporters on the second ballot and knock Trump down to third, and then try to convince remaining Trump delegates to vote for him on the third ballot).

But I think the establishment path to victory is almost identical: make sure it goes beyond the first ballot, bleed off Trump's support with party-loyal delegates on the second, and then court them on the third on the grounds that Cruz is too extreme.

So there's two factions likely to have lots of loyal delegates and a genuine belief that they can win a contested nomination. Which is bad for Trump, because it's going to be really hard to make a deal with anyone when everyone else thinks they can win. But hey, nobody makes deals like Trump. He makes great deals. He should be welcoming a contested convention as an opportunity to show how fantastic his deals are.



I do think it's possible that Kasich is not committing to anyone though. Really, the most Frank Underwood thing to do would be for Kasich to use his delegates to get the VP position on a Trump ticket, and then if they somehow win the election, he's only a Trump impeachment away from the presidency. And I'd put the over-under on a Trump impeachment around 18 months.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I don't think NY, Connecticut or Pennsylvania will be easy wins for Hillary. Bernie will make it close and possibly even win some of those states.

Ok...how? When he needs to win independents 71-28 to barely win Michigan, and he can't rely on those votes in a closed primary....good luck. There simply isn't enough support for him unless he makes serious inroads with minorities and registered Dems. Considering next week's closed primary in Florida has him down 72-18 with non-white voters in polls....yeah. He's going to lose those primaries, the only question is by how much. He can't afford any losses at all though, so even 10 point losses hurt a lot. But losing by 2-3 points could prop him up, I guess. Still makes it virtually impossible to have more delegates going into a convention.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Sanders only real chance is if Hillary gets indicted, which I think would have already happened had she just been a normal politician and not had the entire democrat establishment behind her

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Ok...how? When he needs to win independents 71-28 to barely win Michigan, and he can't rely on those votes in a closed primary....good luck. There simply isn't enough support for him unless he makes serious inroads with minorities and registered Dems. Considering next week's closed primary in Florida has him down 72-18 with non-white voters in polls....yeah. He's going to lose those primaries, the only question is by how much. He can't afford any losses at all though, so even 10 point losses hurt a lot. But losing by 2-3 points could prop him up, I guess. Still makes it virtually impossible to have more delegates going into a convention.

I think he carries momentum from the midwest into the east coast primaries. New York has a demographic that I expect will support Bernie and I think Connecticut will vote similar to Mass., New Hamshire and Vermont.

[Street Pharmacist]

Trump unfavorability now almost in uncharted territory. If he gets the nomination I guess we'll America's first female president in a few months

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chall...ry?id=37500382

[octothorp]

The polls for Florida on the Republican side are very odd. Of the last 8 polls, 3 of them have it Trump +9 or less, and the other 5 have him +19 or more. Very little middle ground. I wonder if it's a state where polling methodologies are producing big swings in terms of Trump support.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Sanders only real chance is if Hillary gets indicted, which I think would have already happened had she just been a normal politician and not had the entire democrat establishment behind her

Seriously how is it the chair of her last presidential bid running the DNC not a conflict of interest? How??

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

New York has a demographic that I expect will support Bernie.

C'mon man... New York is Hillary Clinton's home state and is 41% non-white. Sanders will lose NY very very badly. I figure he'll also lose in North Carolina, Florida, and Illinois.

He'll do quite well in Connecticut thou and considering how alike Ohio is to Michigan he might eke out a win or virtual tie there.

[troutman]

Crazy scene in Chicago - protesters disrupt Trump rally

[Minnie]

Originally Posted by troutman

Crazy scene in Chicago - protesters disrupt Trump rally

Just turned on CNN to watch. Holy fackity do. Not shocking that this is happening though.

[PostandIn]

Yeah, this could get stupid in Chicago.

[troutman]

CNN says there are "thousands" of protestors.

[Minnie]

And now they've kicked it all outside. Hope they called the riot police before they did that. This ain't going to have nothing on Mrs O'Leary's cow if this isn't handled quickly and handled well.

[troutman]

Years of polarization are boiling over.

Trump, Sanders and Obama should all address the nation tonight.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Sounds like the protesters are primarily Black Lives Matters and Bernie supporters. I would expect we'll start seeing this get even uglier with Trump people now going to BLM events and Bernie rallies to disrupt those and create chaos. Doubt this hurts Trump at all and likely emboldens his supporters even more.