The New American Politics thread - Page 226 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

ResAlien · 03-10-2016, 08:19 PM

Thank goodness climate change doesn't exist. That's a load off of my shoulders.

Looch City · 03-10-2016, 08:32 PM

"How many of ya'll feel disrespected by Washington?"

God his voice annoys me so much.

Senator Clay Davis · 03-10-2016, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iggy City

"How many of ya'll feel disrespected by Washington?"

God every conceivable thing about him annoys me so much.

fyp

puckedoff · 03-10-2016, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

I feel like if the Republicans ignore the primaries and vote in whatever candidate they want, at that point they're probably conceding the presidency to the democrats and are just trying to maintain majority in the House and Senate.

How would this be any different than the Dems using super delegates to annoint Clinton if Bernie were to win popular vote in the primaries?

I could see the super delegate issue being the exact reason that anti-establishment Bernie voters could be swayed into voting for Trump rather than Hillary.

Hockey Fan #751 · 03-10-2016, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by puckedoff

How would this be any different than the Dems using super delegates to annoint Clinton if Bernie were to win popular vote in the primaries?

I could see the super delegate issue being the exact reason that anti-establishment Bernie voters could be swayed into voting for Trump rather than Hillary.

It wouldn't be. I think that would hurt the democrats too if they ended up doing that.

N-E-B · 03-11-2016, 04:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ResAlien

I don't understand how any human being can listen to Trump talk and think "Yup, that's my guy. That's who I want to vote for."

He's making Cruz and Rubio seem like reasonable people. That's literally insane that anyone can do that.

Rubio yes, but I have to disagree on Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz makes Donald Trump seem reasonable.

FlameOn · 03-11-2016, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

It wouldn't be. I think that would hurt the democrats too if they ended up doing that.

The DNC does not want a repeat of the 1968 DNC riots. Superdelegates will vote in line with popular vote unless they want a lot of angry people.

Though given that almost 10% of the superdelegates are lobbyists I'm not sure if they'll vote in line with the wishes of the party leadership.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/reaso...ry?id=37289507

Some people are already angry with the superdelegate mess
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...mocrats-219286

GGG · 03-11-2016, 08:50 AM

I think superdelgates presumed that they are owned by Party leadership could have a few ways to legitimize not voting in line with the largest delegate holder.

They could vote by proportional representation along state break downs. They could vote in a winner take all by state, winner take all by national vote etc. Each one of these options could be democratically justified and could produce different results.

Hillary wins the popular vote but is short on delagates -- The will of the people is to have Hillary President

Bernie wins popular vote but is short on delagates -- Each State made its decision and we respect the rights of each state to cast their ballot. Super delagates go to Hillary.

If it is outside of the margins abled to be justified democratically. Probably needs to be +/- 100 delegates maybe 50 for that to happen then the super delagates would need to repsect the will of the people. But I think for Sanders to win he needs at least a 50 delegate lead and the Majority (not just a plurality) of the total national vote.

Senator Clay Davis · 03-11-2016, 08:53 AM

Bernie is almost certainly going into any convention behind in delegates and in the popular vote. Factor in the majority of registered Dems voting for Hillary, and the majority of all voters in the Dems primaries wanting to continue Obama's path, and Bernie winning a contested convention is about on par with him winning the lottery. A Hillary indictment still his best (and possibly only) path to the nomination.

Nehkara · 03-11-2016, 09:14 AM

I took a look today and I believe Bernie will end up winning 30 or 31 of the 50 states.

Spoiler!

CliffFletcher · 03-11-2016, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ResAlien

I don't understand how any human being can listen to Trump talk and think "Yup, that's my guy. That's who I want to vote for."

He's making Cruz and Rubio seem like reasonable people. That's literally insane that anyone can do that.

From the Guardian: Millions of ordinary Americans support Donald Trump. Here's why

Quote:

What Lewandowski and Nussbaum are saying, then, should be obvious to anyone who’s dipped a toe outside the prosperous enclaves on the two coasts. Ill-considered trade deals and generous bank bailouts and guaranteed profits for insurance companies but no recovery for average people, ever – these policies have taken their toll. As Trump says, “we have rebuilt China and yet our country is falling apart. Our infrastructure is falling apart … Our airports are, like, Third World.”

Trump’s words articulate the populist backlash against liberalism that has been building slowly for decades and may very well occupy the White House itself, whereupon the entire world will be required to take seriously its demented ideas.

Yet still we cannot bring ourselves to look the thing in the eyes. We cannot admit that we liberals bear some of the blame for its emergence, for the frustration of the working-class millions, for their blighted cities and their downward spiraling lives. So much easier to scold them for their twisted racist souls, to close our eyes to the obvious reality of which Trumpism is just a crude and ugly expression: that neoliberalism has well and truly failed. - Thomas Frank

peter12 · 03-11-2016, 09:25 AM

Paul Krugman wrote an excellent piece a few days ago about how most of the rhetoric surrounding the benefits of free trade is mostly dishonest.

Quote:

But it’s also true that much of the elite defense of globalization is basically dishonest: false claims of inevitability, scare tactics (protectionism causes depressions!), vastly exaggerated claims for the benefits of trade liberalization and the costs of protection, hand-waving away the large distributional effects that are what standard models actually predict.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...ionist-moment/

Senator Clay Davis · 03-11-2016, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

I took a look today and I believe Bernie will end up winning 30 or 31 of the 50 states.

Spoiler!

Even if he wins all of these (and California, New York and New Jersey are unlikely), he needs to rout her in big wins. Given that outside small, mostly white states he hasn't proven he can do that, seems unlikely. And his deficit is about to go down a lot if the polling in the Tuesday states holds (he may lose 150-250 net delegates).

But even if he does win 30 states, he'll be down in the more important measurables of delegates and popular vote. How do you win a nomination when you have received fewer votes and fewer delegates? Especially when the establishment will be in control then. I'd love to hear what compelling case he could make to win at that point, because to me he doesn't have one.

CorsiHockeyLeague · 03-11-2016, 09:47 AM

^EDIT: Yes, exactly - Michigan was a huge upset, and yet in spite of that, Hillary still met her delegate target for Michigan and exceeded it in Mississippi, with the result that Bernie actually ended that night worse off by the numbers - he was less likely to get the nomination after Tuesday than before it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

I took a look today and I believe Bernie will end up winning 30 or 31 of the 50 states.

Spoiler!

What do you mean when you say you "took a look"? Because there are a lot of states on this list that Hillary is leading by double digits based on the most recent info. I know after Michigan one might be less inclined to trust that, but I don't know what basis there would be for actually predicting the upset in eg Ohio or California or New Jersey.

calgarygeologist · 03-11-2016, 10:00 AM

Rubio is making a big push for strategic voting in order to try to keep delegates from increasing in favour of Donald Trump. He is telling his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich instead of himself.

Vulcan · 03-11-2016, 10:02 AM

double post

Vulcan · 03-11-2016, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by puckedoff

How would this be any different than the Dems using super delegates to annoint Clinton if Bernie were to win popular vote in the primaries?

I could see the super delegate issue being the exact reason that anti-establishment Bernie voters could be swayed into voting for Trump rather than Hillary.

You're underestimating the Sanders voters.

Quote:

The billionaire Donald Trump, for instance, talks to voters in a way that can be understood by a fourth-grader and tops the Republican polls.

Quote:

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s speeches can be understood by eighth-graders. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ exhortations to rein in Wall Street hit a higher level — high-school sophomores, The Globe’s Matt Viser reports.

Do you think the educated voters would lower their standards to a 4th grade level? In other words Trump attracts the morons.

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/...h-grade-level/

Senator Clay Davis · 03-11-2016, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Rubio is making a big push for strategic voting in order to try to keep delegates from increasing in favour of Donald Trump. He is telling his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich instead of himself.

Of course he does. He's likely to be the establishment choice in a brokered convention. I could see Rubio already having a deal with Kasich to be Rubio's VP in a brokered deal. You know the establishment wants nothing to do with Cruz.

calgarygeologist · 03-11-2016, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Of course he does. He's likely to be the establishment choice in a brokered convention. I could see Rubio already having a deal with Kasich to be Rubio's VP in a brokered deal. You know the establishment wants nothing to do with Cruz.

I wish the convention was much sooner than July. At this point it seems like it could get really crazy and should be fun to watch. It seems strange to me that the process up to the convention has been ongoing for upwards of a year but the general election campaign will only last for about 3 months.

Senator Clay Davis · 03-11-2016, 10:17 AM

I shouldn't ever quote True Detective season 2, but if Trump just wins Ohio and Florida next week and we get nothing, we're all gonna have blue balls of the heart.