Flames record down the stretch

[Flames Draft Watcher]

16 games left. Mixed bag schedule with a lot of non-playoff teams (ARIx2, TOR, EDM, VAN, WPG, MTL) a few top teams (ANA, LAK, STL, CHI) and a few playoff wildcard teams in MINx2 and NSH.

What's our record down the stretch?

According to sportsclubstats.com, here are some interesting percentages relating our record with our position in the final standings.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html (scroll to bottom)

7-7-2: 23% of 5th last, 39% chance of 4th last, 26% of 3rd last, 5% of 2nd last
6-8-2: 21% chance of 4th last, 44% chance of 3rd last, 28% of 2nd last, 3% of last
5-9-2: 26% chance of 3rd last, 52% chance of 2nd last, 18% chance of last

I'm skeptical we could go .500. How far under .500 do we end up?

The games against ARIx2, TOR, EDM, VAN, and WPG will be key in the Tank Wars. I'm guessing we start Backstrom/Hiller in a few of them

[Canehdianman]

I'll be cheering for 0-16.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Canehdianman

I'll be cheering for 0-16.

2-14 please.

Losing against Edmonton and Vancouver is unacceptable.

[Mattman]

Nashville- L
Arizona- OTL
St.Louis- L
Winnipeg- W
Colorado- W
@Montreal- OTL
@Toronto- L
@Minnesota- L
Chicago- L
@Arizona- W
@Anahiem- WIN! The Flames will break the curse and I am not jinxing this! Book it!
@Los Angeles- L
@Edmonton- OTL
Los Angeles- L
Vancouver- L
Minnesota- L

4-9-3 putting the Flames in 2nd last

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I absolutely have no cares as to what the record is down the stretch. Just don't embarrass yourself out there and compete hard every night. Start building good habits for next year. It's never too early to start playing the right way.

[powderjunkie]

I don't want us to out suck Edmonton or Toronto for an extra 8.5% chance at Matthews. That would be a sign that our culture is as bad as theirs and that this team is further away from contending than we think, and that last year was the exception. Let the hockey gods reward us for doing it the right way.

Sure, the incremental increase in odds to end up with a higher pick are nice, but I'd be happy if we finish higher than Winnipeg.

I will cheer for the Flames to play well first (especially the young players) and win second, but I will be less disappointed if only the first happens.

[TheScorpion]

In an ideal world, we finish 16-0. Losing sucks, and tanking is worse. What kind of person cheers for their team to lose?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Sure, the incremental increase in odds to end up with a higher pick are nice, but I'd be happy if we finish higher than Winnipeg.

The increased odds are nice but I think the biggest benefit from a lower position is that you can only move down 3 spots total so finishing lower improves the worst possible outcome and average outcome.

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

If we finish 5th last, drafting 8th overall is the worst case scenario, drafting 6th overall the most likely scenario.
If we finish 4th last, drafting 7th overall is the worst case scenario, drafting 6th overall the most likely scenario.
If we finish 3rd last, drafting 6th overall is the worst case scenario, drafting 5th overall the most likely scenario.
If we finish 2nd last, drafting 5th overall is the worst case scenario, drafting 4th overall the most likely scenario.
If we finish last drafting 4th overall is the worst case and most likely scenario.

The slightly improved odds at a top 3 are nice but the best benefit of finishing lower in this new system is capping where your pick could fall to if you don't win the lottery and improving your most likely pick position. Even if we don't win the lottery I think its a heck of a lot sweeter if we draft #4 or #5 than if we were picking #6 or #7. Finishing bottom 3 in the standings would nearly ensure the Flames a top 5 pick.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by thescorpion

in an ideal world, we finish 16-0. Losing sucks, and tanking is worse. What kind of person cheers for their team to lose?

32-0.

[cofias]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

In an ideal world, we finish 16-0. Losing sucks, and tanking is worse. What kind of person cheers for their team to lose?

Get off your high horse buddy. It's the NHL's fault for promoting it, not the fans for playing along.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

32-0.

Wut? The Flames have 16 games left. Unless you're talking about points.

Originally Posted by cofias

Get off your high horse buddy. It's the NHL's fault for promoting it, not the fans for playing along.

How exactly does the NHL promote tanking?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

In an ideal world, we finish 16-0. Losing sucks, and tanking is worse. What kind of person cheers for their team to lose?

I've seen a lot of wins and a lot more losses in my 20 years of watching the Flames. If a few more losses help get us a top 3-5 pick this year I can certainly stomach them. I'm not cheering for them to lose and I want to see the team give the best effort they can at all times. But a few close losses may help us long term despite the short term pain. Imagine we had won a couple more games in Sam Bennett's year and were choosing from Dal Colle, Virtanen, Ritchie, and Nylander instead? Ick. I think the franchise is better off from us getting lucky there and finishing 4th and landing Sam Bennett. The losses have slightly diminished value because of the new system leaving more up to the lottery. But it still affects where our pick can fall to. In a year where the top 3-5 look great and then there's a drop off you don't really wanna end up drafting 6-7th. It's fine but not ideal.

I'm not cheering for them to lose. But if you realistically assess this team they have rookie goaltending with questionable backups, weak scoring depth and are short a top 4 d-man. Realistically I doubt they will go .500 and it has nothing to do with cheering for them to win or lose. I can happily cheer them on and be encouraged by all the good things they do while still seeing the silver lining in the losses. I think that is a fair and reasonable way to approach the end of a lost season and that's the way I'm approaching it.

Is 6-8-2 a reasonable record to expect? If it is then we'll likely finish somewhere between 2nd and 4th last and likely end up with a top 5 pick.

[AC]

I'd take a 16-0 finish with us winning the lottery with 1% odds!

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I've seen a lot of wins and a lot more losses in my 20 years of watching the Flames. If a few more losses help get us a top 3-5 pick this year I can certainly stomach them. I'm not cheering for them to lose and I want to see the team give the best effort they can at all times. But a few close losses may help us long term despite the short term pain. Imagine we had won a couple more games in Sam Bennett's year and were choosing from Dal Colle, Virtanen, Ritchie, and Nylander instead? Ick. I think the franchise is better off from us getting lucky there and finishing 4th and landing Sam Bennett. The losses have slightly diminished value because of the new system leaving more up to the lottery. But it still affects where our pick can fall to. In a year where the top 3-5 look great and then there's a drop off you don't really wanna end up drafting 6-7th. It's fine but not ideal.

I'm not cheering for them to lose. But if you realistically assess this team they have rookie goaltending with questionable backups, weak scoring depth and are short a top 4 d-man. Realistically I doubt they will go .500 and it has nothing to do with cheering for them to win or lose. I can happily cheer them on and be encouraged by all the good things they do while still seeing the silver lining in the losses. I think that is a fair and reasonable way to approach the end of a lost season and that's the way I'm approaching it.

Is 6-8-2 a reasonable record to expect? If it is then we'll likely finish somewhere between 2nd and 4th last and likely end up with a top 5 pick.

Those are some good points. I'm not angry at losses. In fact, I'm pretty indifferent to them. However, I do not understand people who cheer them.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Wut? The Flames have 16 games left. Unless you're talking about points.

If the Flames go 16-0 to end the season, there might be more games after that.

[Roof-Daddy]

I'm just cheering for the Flames to play good hockey, and for the most part they have been, even during this recent rough stretch.

I'm not cheering for losses, but that game against San Jose was awesome. They played absolutely fantastic and had the other teams goalie steal the game from them.

Normally I would be pissed off big time about that, but given the circumstances this season I'm ok with it.

[calgarygeologist]

I don't like watching the Flames lose. I think they go 9-7. Hopefully they beat STL next Monday because I am going to the game.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Important Reverse Standings Games For Wed, March 9

CGY vs NSH
-NSH is freaking hot right now, Johansen seems to be fitting in and Jones doesn't seem to be badly missed. Rinne is looking better than he was earlier in the season. NSH is 8-0-2 in their last 10. Tough matchup for us.

VAN vs ARI
-Both teams sucking hard lately. Thankfully one of them has to win. Any OT result would be fantastic

TOR vs NYI
-Probably irrelevant, I think TOR has last place on lock

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I absolutely have no cares as to what the record is down the stretch. Just don't embarrass yourself out there and compete hard every night. Start building good habits for next year. It's never too early to start playing the right way.

I like the way you put it. Ice the best line up you can, give some farm guys looks but most importantly play hard. Then let the chips fall where they may.

I'll guess 6-8-2.

I'm more interested in the Flames role as spoiler than I am in their reverse standings position. I am 100% on board with Mattmans prediction of breaking the Honda Center Curse. I like the new lottery format but it's too bad they couldn't have waited until next year. The team that finishes 27th could draft in any spot from 1-7! The team that finishes dead last could draft 1-4. Not great for the bottom feeders.

How about this spoiler scenario. The Wild need game 82 to make the playoffs so the Flames give Backstrom the start and he eliminates his team. As a result the Avalanche squeak in and Jarome wins the cup.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

If the Flames go 16-0 to end the season, there might be more games after that.

Doubt it. That's only 91 points.