2016 NHL Draft

[AC]

Originally Posted by Racki

I run three different simulator's sveral times a day. It turns out bad for us more than it works out for us.

Well yeah... we already know the odds.

If you finish 29th, you have a 61% chance of picking 4th or 5th.
If you finish 28th, you have a 65.8% chance of picking 4th, 5th, or 6th.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

Very interesting comparison. And the answer definitely is Johnny Hockey.

I want to touch on something else though in another post above. People comparing size/skill vs BPA. Its true we are in division of big bodied players. We certainly need to get bigger everywhere.

BUT do our skill players need to be big ? Can we not have a roster of 6'3 215 players, some 6'5, 230, and have 3 skill players who arent huge?

Bennett
Gaudreau
2016 1st round pick

Gaudreau literally never gets touched - so i dont worry about him contributing to our size disadvantage. Sure he wont throw big checks but hes mastered how to be effective while being very undersized.

Bennett is no #####-cat. He takes a lickin and keeps on tickin. He thrives on that kind of game. Hes going to the dirty areas regardless of his size, and he will win a lot of battles based on speed, agility, tenacity and hockey IQ. So im not too concerned with him.

Say we take a small player in the top end of this draft who has off the charts skill. Can we not cover these players up with bigger bodies every where else? Or do we need to apply that get bigger philosophy to the top of the 1st round.

I'd like to know what people think.

Personally I get it - we need to be bigger. But I think its dangerous rating players higher or lower because they are smaller or bigger. These are kids. They can grow 2 inches and 20lbs, in fact many do after draft day. Not to mention you can get bigger in free agency, and via trade. The draft is serious business, you can pass on a super talented player who is 5'11 and will play in the all star game one day and take a career AHLer who is 6'3. It would make me sweat and lose sleep more than a lot of other things. More than anything but giving contracts out and making trades. After that i would be very wary of passing on people because they are normal sized human beings.

But also I'd hate to be a franchise/GM who had a scout telling them this undersized player has out of this world skill, and it will translate to the NHL - plus he could grow, but the GM goes with the less talented player, with the bigger frame - hoping instead that this larger player offensive talent / skating / whatever grows instead of drafting a small skill player and praying they grow.

I think its dangrous. Im sure some team in the NHL had a scout raving about johnny and a lot of other players who arent even as small as johnny, but slightly undersized like 5"10 185. or a 5'11 190 dman with all types of skill being skipped over for a 6'4 220 kid who has skating and passing issues but hits hard and has a big shot.. Both kids have played maybe 2 seasons in junior. Little guy has tons of points, tons of good reviews from scouts, big guy has a few big holes in his game but projects to be a 5-6 dman at the worst. If im a GM I take that smaller guy who is more skilled, not every time...but when it makes sense and hes very very skilled and you can see him being able to compete and play his game in the NHL, then you take him.

Not to the point you have a roster of 5'10 185 players going against the kings, but in the top of the 1st round - elite talent levels, future superstars and franchise players... i would certainly not ignore size, but i wouldnt look at it as much as others or i would certainly factor in potential and ceiling not just floor and ability to step in right away.

My point is we can carry 3 small offensively gifted forwards if they compete and carry their weight. It can actually be a good technique to snipe players falling for no reason other than size as the GMs go for safe big framed picks.

We cant do it too much - but its a great way to snag high level talent outside the top picks or top rated picks.

I think in 5 years people will look at what marner, gaudreau, nylander, drouin, etc do and will draft differently.

PS.. I want Tkatchuk over Nylander as well - for a variety of reasons...but its an interesting discussion

Well, it isn't that cut and dried really. Flames have tried big guys (Colborne, Jones, Bollig, etc) on the top line, and we can all see they just don't produce.

You can't really go 'small' in the top 6, and expect it to even out by including all 6'5" guys in the bottom 6. The top 6 will still get muscled out all the time, and that is where the production needs to happen.

I don't for a second think (or want) that the Flames will pick a 6'3" career AHL'er over a 5'11" superstar. Of course not. It is just that especially at the top end of the draft, that is where you can find the big guys WITH the skill needed. That is where the difference lies.

It isn't like Tkachuk is a vastly inferior player skill-wise to Nylander. It also evens out a bit more when you factor in that perhaps Tkachuk's skill will translate better than Nylander's? There are many things to consider.

Just keep in mind that the Flames aren't going to pass up a sure-fire all-star just because he may be more diminutive than a big guy who has a lower ceiling. I can see them passing up on SOME skill for size, but not much (if at all).

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

I want to touch on something else though in another post above. People comparing size/skill vs BPA.

What I'm saying is that size is one factor that factors into your best player available list. For some teams its a bigger factor than others. Given both Burke and Treliving's comments its clear they see a need to get bigger. Size is a factor in our best player list and because of that Nylander may not be in our top 5. He has top 5 skill but skill is only one factor.

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

Say we take a small player in the top end of this draft who has off the charts skill. Can we not cover these players up with bigger bodies every where else? Or do we need to apply that get bigger philosophy to the top of the 1st round.

Where do we get these big, skilled players? Almost nobody is trading them. The best way to get them is through the draft and the most skilled big players are going to be picked at the very top end. We're drafting high in a good draft year so its a rare opportunity to get a guy with the ideal combination of size, skill, skating, and heart.

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

I think in 5 years people will look at what marner, gaudreau, nylander, drouin, etc do and will draft differently.

Small skilled players are great. Almost as great as big, skilled players The draft has been going similarly for as long as I remember, the smaller guys will slide unless they are truly the most elite talent out there (see Kane).

Imagine there's an amazing small guy available like a Zach Parise. Would we be thrilled to take him? Absolutely. But if there's a Getzlaf and a Perry available as well, would you rather have them or Parise? That question was asked in 2003 and Parise went ahead of both players. He was touted as a top 10 talent but slipped to the teens. Nylander is a top 5 talent that will probably slide to the 6-10 range. But that's only natural when there's so many big, skilled guys available. Teams would rather have the Getzlaf/Perry than the Parise. You'd rather have a big, strong, sublimely skilled guy than an average or below average sized sublimely skilled guy.

It's a tough call, that's what the scouts are paid for. If they think Nylander's skill trumps the size/skill combo that Tkachuk or Dubois offers then they'll have him very high. Personally with this rare chance to draft (hopefully) top 5 in a draft that features a lot of big, skilled players I'd be slightly disappointed if we ended up with an average sized one but if they feel Nylander is the best player available I will support the pick 100%. I think if they have Nylander top 5 and we end up drafting 4th or 5th that Treliving should try to move up to get one of the Finns.

It'll be interesting to continue to watch. How Nylander, Tkachuk and Dubois play in the playoffs may be a tiebreaker for some scouts.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Well, it isn't that cut and dried really. Flames have tried big guys (Colborne, Jones, Bollig, etc) on the top line, and we can all see they just don't produce.

You can't really go 'small' in the top 6, and expect it to even out by including all 6'5" guys in the bottom 6. The top 6 will still get muscled out all the time, and that is where the production needs to happen.

I don't for a second think (or want) that the Flames will pick a 6'3" career AHL'er over a 5'11" superstar. Of course not. It is just that especially at the top end of the draft, that is where you can find the big guys WITH the skill needed. That is where the difference lies.

It isn't like Tkachuk is a vastly inferior player skill-wise to Nylander. It also evens out a bit more when you factor in that perhaps Tkachuk's skill will translate better than Nylander's? There are many things to consider.

Just keep in mind that the Flames aren't going to pass up a sure-fire all-star just because he may be more diminutive than a big guy who has a lower ceiling. I can see them passing up on SOME skill for size, but not much (if at all).

Great points. Great post.

I agree. One thing though - i didnt mean having a midget top 6 and a giant bottom 6 but something more like ..

Gaudreau - Monahan - big dude

Big dude - Bennett - Big dude

Big dude - big dude - this years top pick.

And big dude also playing everywhere else.

But yeah still - good points.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

What I'm saying is that size is one factor that factors into your best player available list. For some teams its a bigger factor than others. Given both Burke and Treliving's comments its clear they see a need to get bigger. Size is a factor in our best player list and because of that Nylander may not be in our top 5. He has top 5 skill but skill is only one factor.



Where do we get these big, skilled players? Almost nobody is trading them. The best way to get them is through the draft and the most skilled big players are going to be picked at the very top end. We're drafting high in a good draft year so its a rare opportunity to get a guy with the ideal combination of size, skill, skating, and heart.



Small skilled players are great. Almost as great as big, skilled players The draft has been going similarly for as long as I remember, the smaller guys will slide unless they are truly the most elite talent out there (see Kane).

Imagine there's an amazing small guy available like a Zach Parise. Would we be thrilled to take him? Absolutely. But if there's a Getzlaf and a Perry available as well, would you rather have them or Parise? That question was asked in 2003 and Parise went ahead of both players. He was touted as a top 10 talent but slipped to the teens. Nylander is a top 5 talent that will probably slide to the 6-10 range. But that's only natural when there's so many big, skilled guys available. Teams would rather have the Getzlaf/Perry than the Parise. You'd rather have a big, strong, sublimely skilled guy than an average or below average sized sublimely skilled guy.

It's a tough call, that's what the scouts are paid for. If they think Nylander's skill trumps the size/skill combo that Tkachuk or Dubois offers then they'll have him very high. Personally with this rare chance to draft (hopefully) top 5 in a draft that features a lot of big, skilled players I'd be slightly disappointed if we ended up with an average sized one but if they feel Nylander is the best player available I will support the pick 100%. I think if they have Nylander top 5 and we end up drafting 4th or 5th that Treliving should try to move up to get one of the Finns.

It'll be interesting to continue to watch. How Nylander, Tkachuk and Dubois play in the playoffs may be a tiebreaker for some scouts.

Another super dope post. Lots of great points. I agree with a lot of this one as well. One thing i would say is I agree talented big players arent being traded and dont hit FA often. Im just talking about the top 20 picks. We can maybe go big/skilled outside the top 20. But personally i think size should still be a factor deciding top 20 picks but it shouldnt be as far up the pecking order just for the top echelon of players. Im not saying dont take a big dude with skill. But dont pass on a slightly smaller dude with more skill, based purely on the few inches and pounds.

But yeah I agree, nobody is moving those big skilled players. Its impossible to get them anywhere but the top 2 rounds. But nobody is moving the super skilled players period. Its impossible to get them anywhere. You wont get a Gaudreau, Marner, Brodie, etc. They are just as tough to get in a way after the draft.

The only time i look at size if im a GM making a pick in the top 20 is if i have 2 players DEAD EVEN everywhere else.

Great points - 2 superb posts. Thanks lads.

[mdubz]

Isn't Chicago one of the lightest/smallest teams in the NHL?

Skill > Size

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by mdubz

Isn't Chicago one of the lightest/smallest teams in the NHL?

Skill > Size

Toews, Anisimov, Hjalmarsson, Seabrook, Ladd all play a pretty heavy game and/or use their size to their advantage.

Yes we would take Patrick Kane #1. Yes we would sign Panarin if we could.

The discussion at the moment is taking Nylander vs guys like Tkachuk/Dubois. Do the Chicago Blackhawks excelling change the answer? I'm not sure how it does. Size doesn't matter because you think CHI wins without it? Questionable assertion IMO.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Another way I could have articulated what I mean is maybe we can have 3 small offensive superstars and supplement / compliment them with larger secondary role players who arent going to score 40 or put up 80 points but can play top 6 mins and contribute, play PK, play the body hard, be all over the ice. I know hes been polarizing this season but Frolik is a good example. Or even Ferland, Bouma, etc. Useful players with size all throughout the lineup. not all 4th liners, not all 3rd liners, some on the 2nd line and 1st line as well. I think its possible. You just have to find the right parts and pursue them. I like frolik. I like bouma, I like ferland. I also like a lot of the prospects we have who project to be bottom 6 in the NHL. I dont think we nessicarily need top line talent thats 6'5 220. We need top line talent. And we need people who are big. Im just saying we could seperate the two needs and still succeed in finding both. Still have a competitive team. I think we are more likely to find more foliks, and 2nd line players who are multi dimensional and have good enough size than we are to find huge players who are top liners. We can find people who are 6'2-6'3 210 ish like monahan and can play a physical game yet still put up around 40-60 pts per season. They are out there. In the 2nd round, trades, free agency. etc.

But I agree with the above posters, we need to get bigger - the big players who can play at the highest level, the biggest minutes arent available - and its not as cut and dried as taking gaudreau and nylander over big players because they are more skilled - or taking big players over skill players. there are a lot of factors at play.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by mdubz

Isn't Chicago one of the lightest/smallest teams in the NHL?

Skill > Size

This season? Yes. And this season's team hasn't proven itself in the rigours of the playoffs yet.

Last year's team had Saad and Oduya. Previous Cup winning squads had big boys like Ladd and Byfuglien. And it's worth noting that the Hawks went out and grabbed a big body in Ladd at the deadline.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Brock Otten's Prediction of the OHL Coaches Poll. His prediction, the actual coaches poll comes out within a week or two. Still interesting as he watches a lot of OHL.

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca

Andrew Mangiapane tied for 3rd smartest player and 2nd in most dangerous in the goal area in the eastern conference.

Matt Tkachuk tied for 3rd smartest player and 2nd best playmaker in western conference.

Jakob Chychrun 2nd best skater, 2nd hardest shot, tied for 3rd best offensive defensemen, 2nd best defensive defenseman in the western conference.

Alex Nylander 3rd best shot, 2nd best stickhandler, 2nd best shootout shooter in the eastern conference.

Mikhail Sergachev tied for 3rd best shot, 1st hardest shot, 1st best offensive defensemen in the western conference.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Since I posted the Chychrun and Tkachuk quotes to be fair I guess we should post the Nylander quotes too.

From http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca

Alex Nylander

"One word: Dynamic. I don’t often use the word elite – it’s something I save for the best of all time – but Nylander has some very elite qualities if he is not elite overall. His puck handling is elite and his hockey IQ is elite, his vision is elite. He is phenomenal in one on one situation. He is extremely elusive; defenders have to be aware of his presence constantly. When I watched him at the Ivan Hlinka, I thought he played a soft game. But that is the furthest thing from the truth in his first OHL season. While he is more physically involved than his older brother, he’s not a basher. But he doesn’t shy away from the physical game – he’ll take what the opposition throws at him and keeps on going. Nylander will also battle along the boards even though he needs to add some bulk. He plays it smart and has excellent puck possession skills, even in those battles. While he can improve defensively, he’s no slouch in that aspect of his game either. He works extremely hard to get back on the backcheck, and it’s helped out greatly by his skating." - Dominic Tiano

"Play at the World Juniors aside, Alex Nylander has quickly become arguably the top Ontario Hockey League forward available in the upcoming draft. Nylander is equally as smart as he is skilled. While the natural skill set is undeniably good, Nylander's anticipation, on ice awareness, play away from the puck and overall hockey sense is off the charts. All of which that when combined with his high end skill set allow him to a high end NHL prospect. In possession Nylander displays elite vision and playmaking skills, along with high end puck skills and an ability create something out of nothing. A strong skater, Nylander possesses above average speed and strong change of pace/direction abilities that when combined with his high end puck skills and hockey sense allow him to be extremely shifty and elusive. Most impressive about Nylander's skating is his separation speed. Nylander often catches unsuspecting defenders flat footed when he turns on his second gear, beating the opposition to high percentage scoring areas. Boasting an absolutely lethal shot, that combines a quick release with pin point accuracy, Alex Nylander is a lethal offensive threat. Defensively speaking Nylander is consistently engaged in the play and makes himself effective in his own zone, although if there is one knock against him, he does turn the puck over looking to get creative in zone exits in his own zone, which in turn can lead to quality scoring chances for the opposition." - Mike Mackley

"Nylander has wowed me in all of my live viewings with the Steelheads this season. Sweden’s best player at Hlinka Memorial, including a handful of dazzling plays in their Gold Medal loss to Canada (created all three of Sweden’s goals in the 7-3 loss) certainly helps. One of three draft-eligible forwards to make Team Sweden at the WJCs and he didn’t disappoint, leading the team in scoring. A shifty skater, jumps in and out of traffic with the puck, weaving his way around the ice. Likes to cut to the inside and open up opportunities for drop passes or a lane for a teammate. He out-performed fellow top prospects and linemates Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian in my viewings this year. Not afraid to cut to the middle and shoot if defenders anticipate pass. Lethal shot, shifts his weight effortlessly for a quick snap, can score high from the high slot. He has one of the most accurate shots I’ve seen in recent years in the OHL and QMJHL. Plays the point on the powerplay, plays on the penalty kill as well — more responsible defensively than he’s given credit. Can score with ease using his slapshot from the point too – low follow through, loose grip. I think Nylander should be considered a strong candidate to for 5th or 6th overall. But then again, I had William ranked No. 5/6 in 2014 and he went 8th. Déjà vu in 2016? Maybe." - Scott Wheeler

"Despite being slightly undersized (6'0'' 176) Nylander is an electrifying talent, who can simply dazzle fans, scouts and announcers. Able to create plays in the heaviest of traffic, Alexander can also control the pace of the game with the puck on his stick as well as being able to change the course of a game with one shift. In the offensive zone Alexander is more then prepared to head to the next level, however his deficiencies are on the defensive side of the game, Alexander can get lost in neutral & defensive zone coverage BUT can create immediate transition by using his speed to capture pucks in the defensive zones. Although not a physical player, Nylander uses his tremendous skill and puck sense to remove pucks from board battles before he can get pinned down. A player who with some work on the defensive side can be an impact pro." - Reed Duthie

"An elusive skater with elite hockey smarts. He is a strong puckhandler and has fantastic vision which makes for great playmaking skills. His agility and fancy footwork allows himself to get out of trouble. Nylander is also intimidating as a goal scorer as he has a very accurate shot combined with soft hands. He tends to shoot more from the outside when he is bringing the puck in otherwise, without the puck he finds open spaces and gets in perfect positioning for a shot in close. He is not an overly physical player, but does not shy away from it and is able to come out with the puck with battles along the board and in the corners." - Kathryn Jean

"Might have the best pure skill in the OHL...Will bring fans out of their seats...Getting better defensively...High ceiling." - Mark Seidel

Knowing the Flames do value size if they select Nylander it will be high praise for him and I will be excited about his talent.

[nik-]

I'm about ready for Draft Lottery day now

[dissentowner]

Size also does not always transfer into the NHL either though. Joe Colborne was drafted 16th overall. Sean Couturier was a very good offensive player in junior whose skill set in the NHL has turned into a 3rd line C, 8th overall. Zach Kassian is another top 10 pick who could take advantage of his size in junior to put up numbers he will never put up in the NHL. It is a gamble no matter you cut it. I remember how far Jiri Hudler dropped because of his size and we all know the Johnny Hockey story. If Nylander was 5'7 or 5'9 and 150lbs I could see why but he is around Sam Bennett size, just doesn't play the physical game. We all have our opinions which makes the discussion interesting and fun.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by nik-

I'm about ready for Draft Lottery day now

honestly...

i can't even get myself motivated to watch games anymore. Simply check the score to hope the game is close but the flames are losing

sad year for the new rule where bottom 3 in standings could still mean not getting a top3 pick.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Size also does not always transfer into the NHL either though. Joe Colborne was drafted 16th overall. Sean Couturier was a very good offensive player in junior whose skill set in the NHL has turned into a 3rd line C, 8th overall. Zach Kassian is another top 10 pick who could take advantage of his size in junior to put up numbers he will never put up in the NHL. It is a gamble no matter you cut it. I remember how far Jiri Hudler dropped because of his size and we all know the Johnny Hockey story. If Nylander was 5'7 or 5'9 and 150lbs I could see why but he is around Sam Bennett size, just doesn't play the physical game. We all have our opinions which makes the discussion interesting and fun.

I agree with what you're saying but re: Bolded Couturier is a very good #2C this season any way you look at it. He plays 2C, puts up 2C numbers, and excels at 2C duties.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I agree with what you're saying but re: Bolded Couturier is a very good #2C this season any way you look at it. He plays 2C, puts up 2C numbers, and excels at 2C duties.

How is 39 and 37 points 2C numbers? I disagree there. He might get there, you are right in that but he will never be a 1st line C.

[JurassicTunga12]

Originally Posted by nik-

I'm about ready for Draft Lottery day now

Indeed.

What is the date for the draft lottery anyway?

[AC]

Originally Posted by JurassicTunga12

Indeed.

What is the date for the draft lottery anyway?

April 16 according to:
http://www.tsn.ca/talent/canadian-te...thews-1.438736

In other words, April 16th is poised to be the biggest date on the Canadian hockey calendar this spring

[sureLoss]

James Mirtle @mirtle
Peter Chiarelli and Brad Treliving both expected at ACC tonight for Leafs-Sabres. Must be scouting in area?

Conroy is on his way to join Treliving most likely scouting OHL games this week.

[Aarongavey]

The Chicago Blackhawks seem to be a decent NHL team built with next to no forwards that are much bigger than 6'2 and 205. Maybe they are an example to follow.