Cap World, Drafting for Need and BPA?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

True, but no one had them as first overalls. The talent at the top was weaker than most drafts

False. TOR had Rielly #1. I linked a video above that shows it.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

False. TOR had Rielly #1. I linked a video above that shows it.

Would you say Reilly is as good as most first overalls? You get my point

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Would you say Reilly is as good as most first overalls? You get my point

It wasn't a great draft year. They could've traded down to pick up extra assets and pick up a top 2 d-man. Instead they made the decision to throw the pick into the toilet. Edmonton is no good.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Would you say Reilly is as good as most first overalls? You get my point

That's not the point. The point is he would have been better than Yak.
Yak was far from a 100% consensus #1 pick. Nor was Hall.
The Oiler's F'D up. Don't let them off the hook

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

True, but no one had them as first overalls. The talent at the top was weaker than most drafts

And that is why so many people said they should trade down to get one of them.

Get a Trouba/Reilly/Lindholm AND a +

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

That's not the point. The point is he would have been better than Yak.
Yak was far from a 100% consensus #1 pick. Nor was Hall.
The Oiler's F'D up. Don't let them off the hook

I'm not letting them off any hook, mainly because I have no way to reprimand them. The point is, it doesn't really matter who they picked first because Reilly hasn't saved Toronto either. You need more than first pick talent. They suck if they picked Reilly and Seguin.

More importantly, you need depth, development (not by seeing how far they go before they fail), leadership in the room and above (not going partying after a listless embarrassing effort) , not forcing injured players to play, good trading and proper coaching. They struck out miserably on all accounts. Pinning their failure on a few picks that aren't really very controversial (aside from the Yakupov one) is letting them off the hook more IMO.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

That's not the point. The point is he would have been better than Yak.

So would Galchenyuk, Forsberg, Jankowski.

[Jay Random]

The thing about the Oilers' picks is, contrary to what most people are saying, they seldom picked BPA. They had a tendency to use each first-round pick in a vain effort to correct the mistake they made with the previous year's pick.

2010: Starting over from scratch with rebuild 2.0. A probable #1 C was on the board, and that's a more valuable building block than a winger, just because of versatility. You can move Seguin to the wing a lot easier than you can move Hall to centre. In terms of pure skill and talent, the players appeared to be pretty much equal. The Oilers bungled by taking the player at the less valuable position.

2011: Either Huberdeau or Landeskog would have been an excellent #1 pick, but the Oilers already had Hall and desperately needed a centre for his line. So they went with Nugent-Hopkins, a rather weak #1 pick. (Huberdeau was listed at C at the time, but does seem to be settling in nicely as a winger, so I'm guessing that he was projected as a winger by many scouts.)

2012: In a weak draft with no consensus #1, the smart thing would have been for the Oilers to use positional need as a tie-breaker. That would have landed them with Murray. Instead, they took another forward, who has turned out to be a solid disappointment.

2013: Since they didn't take a defenceman the previous year, the Oilers tried to correct that by going after Darnell Nurse. Nichushkin was still on the board, and arguably the BPA at #7; certainly the most skilled player available.

2014: Since the Oilers picked RNH to try to make up for not picking Seguin, they were stuck with an undersized and under-physical #1 C. So they picked Draisaitl at #3 overall, because he was slightly more physically mature than Sam Bennett – a terrible reason to pick one 18-year-old ahead of another. Draisaitl is working out reasonably well for them, but the consensus seems to be that Bennett has the better overall tools.

2015: They finally sacked their scouts, replaced their GM with a halfway competent person, and took the overwhelmingly obvious pick in McDavid.

From those six drafts, they could have had a #1 line of Bennett–McDavid–Landeskog, with Seguin and Nichushkin on the second line and Murray on D. Murray has been hampered by injuries, but has hockey IQ to burn, which, according to many observers, Nurse hasn't. In fact, most of these alternative picks have better hockey sense than the players the Oilers actually took; which is not hard to do, because Yakupov seems to have the hockey IQ of a tomato, and Hall may have the IQ of a grilled tomato sandwich.

Maybe the problem is not that the Oilers draft off the front page of the Hockey News. Maybe each year, they come to the draft thoroughly and meticulously prepared… for the previous year's draft.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Yep. Literally every single year they failed to select the best player available (Except McDavid). Either by bad scouting or by forcing a certain position or a combination of both.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

2010: Starting over from scratch with rebuild 2.0. A probable #1 C was on the board, and that's a more valuable building block than a winger, just because of versatility. You can move Seguin to the wing a lot easier than you can move Hall to centre. In terms of pure skill and talent, the players appeared to be pretty much equal. The Oilers bungled by taking the player at the less valuable position.

Retrospect. There's a reason the Oilers tank was called the "Fall for Taylor Hall" that year. Hall was the right pick, and he turned into a valuable player. Seguin being a center doesn't mean anyone knew he would become what he has.

2011: Either Huberdeau or Landeskog would have been an excellent #1 pick, but the Oilers already had Hall and desperately needed a centre for his line. So they went with Nugent-Hopkins, a rather weak #1 pick. (Huberdeau was listed at C at the time, but does seem to be settling in nicely as a winger, so I'm guessing that he was projected as a winger by many scouts.)

Nah, Nugent-Hopkins is still probably the most valuable player from that draft not named Johnny Gaudreau. RNH can still play wing, what he was drafted for were things like his vision and puck skills. Where they went wrong with him, is they didn't develop him physically because they rushed him into #1C duties in the NHL. I'm pretty convinced he still weighs less than 19 year old Sam Bennett.

Also they drafted Klefbom with their other first that year, worth noting. That was a good draft for them.

2012: In a weak draft with no consensus #1, the smart thing would have been for the Oilers to use positional need as a tie-breaker. That would have landed them with Murray. Instead, they took another forward, who has turned out to be a solid disappointment.

Yakupov was a disappointment. But If I were an Oilers fan I would have been very happy right now with Alex Galchenyuk or Filip Forsberg especially if they employed a patient development plan.

2013: Since they didn't take a defenceman the previous year, the Oilers tried to correct that by going after Darnell Nurse. Nichushkin was still on the board, and arguably the BPA at #7; certainly the most skilled player available.

Rasmus Ristolainen was arguably the BPA at #7. Hockey sense was a knock on Nurse since the beginning. Ristolainen oozes hockey sense.

2014: Since the Oilers picked RNH to try to make up for not picking Seguin, they were stuck with an undersized and under-physical #1 C. So they picked Draisaitl at #3 overall, because he was slightly more physically mature than Sam Bennett – a terrible reason to pick one 18-year-old ahead of another. Draisaitl is working out reasonably well for them, but the consensus seems to be that Bennett has the better overall tools.

We don't know that that's the reason. Draisaitl has some great tools and we've already seen him play at a very high level for stretches this year, a level we'll be stoked if Bennett reaches within the next two years.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Retrospect. There's a reason the Oilers tank was called the "Fall for Taylor Hall" that year. Hall was the right pick, and he turned into a valuable player. Seguin being a center doesn't mean anyone knew he would become what he has.

Some fans called it that. The more informed people called it "Taylor vs Tyler". It was very much up for debate which of the two was the correct player to take. They were very much in the same tier, Hall was not in a tier above.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Nah, Nugent-Hopkins is still probably the most valuable player from that draft not named Johnny Gaudreau. RNH can still play wing, what he was drafted for were things like his vision and puck skills. Where they went wrong with him, is they didn't develop him physically because they rushed him into #1C duties in the NHL. I'm pretty convinced he still weighs less than 19 year old Sam Bennett.

The RNH pick is very defensible IMO. Agreed that he was rushed. However I don't think he was a slam dunk #1 that year, I do think Landeskog and Huberdeau were on the same tier as him and were rated #1 by some scouts/teams. I think they've mismanaged him for sure. That pick by itself wasn't a problem. I think he wouldn't made a dynamite 1/2 centre punch with Seguin.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Rasmus Ristolainen was arguably the BPA at #7. Hockey sense was a knock on Nurse since the beginning. Ristolainen oozes hockey sense.

Yep their scouts appear to have gotten the rankings between Nurse and Ristolainen wrong. Ristolainen may end up better than Seth Jones.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

We don't know that that's the reason. Draisaitl has some great tools and we've already seen him play at a very high level for stretches this year, a level we'll be stoked if Bennett reaches within the next two years.

I'm not sure why they preferred Draisaitl. I still think he's a top young player and they certainly aren't disappointed in that pick. But I think Bennett's speed, tenacity, physicality, determination, consistency puts him above Draisaitl. I liked Ekblad/Bennett ahead of Reinhart/Draisaitl. But that was another year where the top 4 were on a tier together and none of them were consensus #1 picks. I think BUF would have taken Reinhart first they liked him that much. I think CGY would've taken Ekblad 1st and Bennett 2nd (just a theory).

[GranteedEV]

Agreed on all points. I honestly don't think Seguin is a tier above even now. Seguin does put up marginally better stats but I don't even think he's the best player on his line.

As far as Bennett vs Draisaitl, I can definitely see why they picked him. Anze Kopitar is one of my favorite players in the league and there have been a few games I've caught of the Oilers where Draisaitl reminds me of Kopitar. I actually thought their Hall-Hopkins-Draisaitl line in October was a very well-constructed line with the right balance of board play, speed, and finish. They weren't able to keep that line together due to injuries but what I saw was a three-man line more effective than any we've had since Daymond Langkow was healthy.

[DiracSpike]

I talked to Brad Treliving at Cowboys after the 2014 draft and he confirmed that they had Ekblad number 1 and Bennett number 2. Also said they would have traded up to get Bennett but somehow seemed to know that he would be there at four. So essentially that draft was the top 4 picking teams all having Ekblad number one and then the 2-3-4 each picking the forward they uniquely favored, unless Edmonton really wanted Reinhart but I doubt it.

Anyways I think if the Flames win the draft lottery they should and will take Matthews and sort out the rest later, positional need is too fluid.

[Regorium]

I think Hall was the right pick.

Consider that Seguin had several years of "attitude issues" in Boston with a veteran leadership core. Imagine that in Edmonton! He'd be a 50 point center at best, while Hall is probably a 90 point LW'er with boston or elsewhere.

The problem is Edmonton's development and lack of sheltering.

Look how awful they've become when RNH is out of the lineup. Had they had a #1C to shelter RNH, let him learn the game and bulk up, face the second D pairing, he would be much better than he is now. This year he's being basically thrown to the wolves to shelter McDavid and Draisaitl - good for the two prospects, but I feel bad for how RNH's career could've gone.

[dammage79]

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[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Agreed on all points. I honestly don't think Seguin is a tier above even now. Seguin does put up better stats but I don't even think he's the best player on his line.

Hall is a very skilled offensive player.

For a while now I've been philosophically opposed to building around wingers. I watched certains teams do it earlier and have never found the results to be impressive. CGY with Iginla, ATL with Kovalchuk/Heatley then Hossa, WSH with Ovechkin. I just have never been impressed with teams where their best offensive player was a winger. So starting a new rebuild off by picking Hall? Meh. Seguin had franchise centre potential, I do think they botched that one by not understanding that centres are the more important position. They have a bigger impact towards winning/losing and more easily make the players on their line better.

Bringing it back to this draft that is why I would never consider taking Laine over Matthews. But if our scouts see Laine/Matthews on the same tier and we end up drafting #1 then I have no problems trading down one spot to take Laine but only because we already have Bennett and Monahan and are in dire need of a #1 RW. I believe we already have two franchise centres so getting a #1 RW with size plus additional assets would be something worth exploring.

[DoubleF]

BPA. Bonus if BPA is also of a need position.

If you want a player who is a need but not BPA at your higher pick why aren't you trading down for extra assets AND nabbing said player that fits your need player at your new picking slot who is now the BPA?

Not drafting BPA means you lose value and some lower pick is gaining value.

Originally Posted by Jay Random

2014: Since the Oilers picked RNH to try to make up for not picking Seguin, they were stuck with an undersized and under-physical #1 C. So they picked Draisaitl at #3 overall, because he was slightly more physically mature than Sam Bennett – a terrible reason to pick one 18-year-old ahead of another. Draisaitl is working out reasonably well for them, but the consensus seems to be that Bennett has the better overall tools.

Err... I'm pretty sure because Draisaitl was able to slot into the roster immediately and that's why he was taken before Bennett (someone needs to dig up that awkward interview of Draisaitl at the draft where MacT kept saying stuff about how he was slotting immediately and the interviewer told MacT to stop putting pressure on the kid). Let's also not forget Bennett had a bum shoulder, needed surgery to correct it and couldn't do a pull up at the combine.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Agreed on all points. I honestly don't think Seguin is a tier above even now. Seguin does put up marginally better stats but I don't even think he's the best player on his line.

Considering that he's on a line with Jamie Benn, that is a remarkably weak knock against Seguin.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

... I'm pretty sure because Draisaitl was able to slot into the roster immediately and that's why he was taken before Bennett

Right. Because they were looking for a physical centreman, and Draisaitl was more physically developed. That was why he was projected (incorrectly) to make the NHL straight out of the draft and Bennett wasn't.

As it turned out, both of them were a year away from being productive players: Draisaitl because he needed to develop other areas of his game, Bennett because he needed major surgery.

[TheOnlyBilko]

Yak was the consensus #1 Pick in his draft year. Don't why people are even arguing against that.