When is our rebuild no longer a rebuild?

[ricardodw]

The re-build is over when the Flames are close to the salary cap.

If they sign Monahan and Gaudreau to 6Mx6 contracts the build is officially over. The team is what it is and will not be getting any great new pieces.

They will have a huge portion of the salary cap committed for the next 5-6 years.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

I'm going to say the rebuild stops being a rebuild when the following two criteria are met:

- The Flames identify their core moving forward
- The Core (on average) reaches what are likely their prime production years.

Once those two criteria are met, it stops being a rebuild, and should move into optimization mode to give yourself the best shot at a cup. If you fail misserably and incorrectly identify your core, or fail to acquire a solid core, the rebuild should re-start and continue on (Oilers mode) or you end up toiling in mediocrity for years (Flames post 04) and should have actually torn it down.

I think many of us got a little a head of ourselves with rebuild vs not rebuild last year with the unexpected results. But the Flames are still very much in a rebuild, which I think is actually a head of schedule. When this process started 2 years ago, I don't think we thought we'd have identified our future core this quickly. Hopefully we haven't miss stepped, but I think Johnny, Mony, Bennett, Brodie, (even Gio) and the acquistion of Hamilton have all "over achieved" in their own way on what they could accomplish this quickly and what their project ceilings might be.

Now it's all about solid asset management so we can surround those players with the right support cast when they "collectively" peak in what will likely be 2 to 3 seasons from now. Oh, and just the small little task of finding a good NHL goalie to be playing in their prime at around that time frame also.

The core has been identified:

It is the guys on the team that have contracts out to 2017-18

Gio
Brodie
Hamilton
Frolik
Backlund
Stajan
Bouma

and after this summer Monahan and Gaudreau

That is it.... there will be some internal improvement from the guys under 25 Hamilton, Monahan and Gaudreau and Bennett if he qualifies for the core on his performance next season.

That is the core, it is in place and is what it is.

There is no salary cap room to add replacements for Hudler and Russell and no chance to add Lucic /okopos or Hamonic


the glaring thing is no NHL calibre goalie. Trevling knew that last summer but was unable to win a bidding war.


Very similar to the Wild before Dubynk.

[saillias]

I've thought long and hard about this and decided on the following.

The rebuild is over when Jankowski becomes the best player in the NHL from the 2012 draft.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by saillias

I've thought long and hard about this and decided on the following.

The rebuild is over when Jankowski becomes the best player in the NHL from the 2012 draft.

That's not going to happen until 10 years after the draft though.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Other than Hjalmarsson, Weber, Chara, Despres, Tanev, Martin, Methot, etc etc etc....

Fail.

All of those guys play with an above average puck mover.

Hjalmarsson: Duncan Friggin' Keith.
Methot: Erik Friggin' Karlsson.

Need I say more? Yes?
Weber: Roman Josi
Despres: Sami Vatanen
Tanev: Alex Edler
Martin: Brent Burns

Chara: ? An anomaly, but a giant of an anomaly. Plus, he can move the puck decently well himself.

Basically, all of those guys have good advanced stats because of their partner. However, it does NOT mean that if they did not play with those puck moving defensemen, that those players would suddenly have poor value. There is the major flaw with the advanced stat argument. It will ALWAYS favor players who are highly skilled and can move the puck by themselves through the other team. Problem is, hockey is still a team game, and all the pieces matter and have value. Corsi has value from a team perspective and evaluating overall effectiveness of the team, but it has next to no value for evaluating individual players, especially if those players are on bad teams.

This is part of the reason why I felt the advanced stat argument against Kris Russell was somewhat flawed.

[saillias]

There's enough sample size to evaluate all those guys on their own merit, without the said puckmovers you've listed. It's not like they've played 100% of their careers with that guy.

[PeteMoss]

No idea who he's play with this year, but in the past Hjalmersson played with Oduya.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by saillias

There's enough sample size to evaluate all those guys on their own merit, without the said puckmovers you've listed. It's not like they've played 100% of their careers with that guy.

I didn't make that argument. I was responding to the idea that only physical defensemen with good corsi numbers have value.

Plus, there is definite skewing depending on the partner, or the team they're on. You can't tell me that Marc Methot is as good as Shea Weber, but yet I bet their Corsi's are relatively the same. Playing with Karlsson will do that for you.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

No idea who he's play with this year, but in the past Hjalmersson played with Oduya.

Also a decent puck mover.

And I'm not saying that Hjalmarsson doesn't deserve recognition. He does. He's a rare combination of elite defensive zone defenseman with good physicality, along with the speed and skill to move the puck when needed. Players like him are very, very rare.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The re-build is over when the Flames are close to the salary cap.

If they sign Monahan and Gaudreau to 6Mx6 contracts the build is officially over. The team is what it is and will not be getting any great new pieces.

They will have a huge portion of the salary cap committed for the next 5-6 years.

It is baffling where your logic comes from. The Flames have a ton of expiring deals after next year thst will allow them to move out some garbage and add better pieces. Also at this pace they will be adding a great piece in June regardless as they are looking likely to pick top 5

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The core has been identified:

It is the guys on the team that have contracts out to 2017-18

Gio
Brodie
Hamilton
Frolik
Backlund
Stajan
Bouma

and after this summer Monahan and Gaudreau

That is it.... there will be some internal improvement from the guys under 25 Hamilton, Monahan and Gaudreau and Bennett if he qualifies for the core on his performance next season.

That is the core, it is in place and is what it is.

Oh my god. That's ludicrous. That year sees Backlund, Stajan, and Bouma coming off the books, and you are seriously suggesting that all three of them are core pieces? Come on. Even you can't be that myopic.

In 2018–19 the Flames have presently committed $21.45 to FOUR players. After this summer, that number will probably be in the range of $34 m for six players. This figure does not include Bennett and this year's first round pick, who also WILL factor into the team's core moving forward almost immediately. It is practically unbelievable that you would fail to include a potential top-three draft pick in your assessment.

There is no salary cap room to add replacements for Hudler and Russell and no chance to add Lucic /okopos or Hamonic

Wrong. There will be close to $10 m available to sign players this summer AFTER contracts are tendered to Gaudreau and Monahan, and this doesn't account for the 10% overage allowance during the summer months in which the Flames will almost be certainly looking to move one or two of Wideman, Smid, and Engelland, and one of Raymond or Stajan. That's not to say I expect the Flames to be overly active on the UFA market this summer, but it certainly is not accurate to characterise their situation as "no chance."

the glaring thing is no NHL calibre goalie. Trevling knew that last summer but was unable to win a bidding war.

This has been clearly identified by management as a major problem, and I expect that it will be addressed. But really, the point here is that the decisions made today do not need to have such a long term impact. I would not be surprised to see the Flames plugging the gap in goal for another year or two while one of their own develops into a starter, or they are able to identify and trade for/sign for a starter from another team. Kind of like...

...the Wild before Dubynk.

The most maddening thing about your evaluations—and this holds for practically all of them—is that you have this bizarre outlook that allows for no flexibility whatsoever. The real world never quite works that way. In this case there are still plenty of unforeseeable things that allow for the Flames to navigate any of their potential cap issues successfully.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

It is baffling where your logic comes from. The Flames have a ton of expiring deals after next year thst will allow them to move out some garbage and add better pieces. Also at this pace they will be adding a great piece in June regardless as they are looking likely to pick top 5

Yeah there's 15m (more if you count Stajan, who could he moved IMO) in capspace just waiting to be utilized after next year, but we're ####ed and there's no money for anyone after Monahan, Bennett and Gaudreau because reasons. That's not even considering the $12m that was just freed up over the last week, and the $8m from Hiller and Ramo. It's getting so annoying listening to people parrot that crap when it's clearly not true.

[Phil Russell]

The rebuild is over when management decides its over. We will know that its over when we see a change in management strategy away from making moves that are primarily about investing in the future, and towards moves that are primarily about the present. Well managed teams will be making both types of moves all of the time, but a rebuilding team will be emphasizing moves for the future, a non-rebuilding team will be emphasizing near-term, win-now moves.

[codynw]

Ricardo's posts make much more sense if you imagine they're coming from Eric Cartman.

[Jason14h]

The rebuild is over when management decides its over. We will know that its over when we see a change in management strategy away from making moves that are primarily about investing in the future, and towards moves that are primarily about the present.

What moves have been about the Future?

Trading 3 picks for a player and paying him 6 million?
Resigning your 32 year old Captain for 7 million?
Signing FA's who are 30+

Sure we traded to UFA's, but ANY team regradless of rebuild or not should make that move if in the bottom 3 of the league....

The Flames rebuild is over. The team going forward is

Brodie
Hamilton
Gio
Bennett
Monahan
Johnny
Whoever we pick this year

If we move these guys, then we are starting a new rebuild.

[Enoch Root]

He said 'primarily'.

Yes, we signed Giordano to an extension because he's the team leader and captain and you have to, you know, ice a hockey team every night.

The Flames just traded their top RW - their position of greatest weakness - for picks.

The rebuild is still on.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He said 'primarily'.

Yes, we signed Giordano to an extension because he's the team leader and captain and you have to, you know, ice a hockey team every night.

The Flames just traded their top RW - their position of greatest weakness - for picks.

The rebuild is still on.

I think the rebuild is still on, but trading your aging UFA right winger you cannot afford to re-sign is hardly the signal.

The fact our core isn't at their peak and isn't complete is more the signal to me that the rebuild isn't over.

Regardless, it's a very subjective term and everyone has a differing opinion

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by codynw

Ricardo's posts make much more sense if you imagine they're coming from Eric Cartman.

That still doesn't make me respect Ricardo's authoritah.

(By the way: I don't pretend to have a magic formula that says when the rebuild is over. I do know this, though: The rebuild is not over until the team has a legit starting goalie. After that, we'll see where we stand.)

[Harry Lime]

Sort of skimmed through the thread, and the most reasonable way of determining when the rebuild is over seems to be a combination of when core pieces are hitting their 'prime' and when highly paid non-core pieces are coming off the books.

That would seem to indicate that the rebuild is over after next season. I would also venture that 'rebuild over' is actually not the best phrasing and a better descriptor may be 'when the team has an opportunity of becoming a serious playoff threat, yearly'.

What consists of our core also may change with circumstance. Winning the Edmonton Sweepstakes and landing Matthews dramatically changes trading options going forward. Also, leaping like a puma on other teams cap difficulties (ect), as like happened with Hamilton also accelerated our timeline significantly.

I'd still stand by year after next.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Winning the Edmonton Sweepstakes

I prefer to think of it as the Kevin Lowe Cup. The first overall pick ought to come with a trophy, with the inscription:

Awarded annually by the National Hockey League
to the Lowest of the Lowe