When is our rebuild no longer a rebuild?

[heep223]

Been waiting for this thread.

My expectation is that the season after next, the Flames are a contender out of the West. 2017-18. I know it's not a black and white/linear thing, but my expectations are such that 5 years after trading Iggy and with three top six drafts picks, the team should be at the very least a perennial playoff team. If they're not I'll consider the rebuild delayed/failed.

The point above re: 2nd contracts is a good one as well.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I think next year we'll be exposed


.....as one of the best young teams in the NHL

[sharkov]

When we get some real goaltending and a power forward

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Seriously though if we can solve our goaltending like Florida did then I really think we're poised to take a serious step forward like Florida has. Florida is another good young team. They are just a year or two ahead of us in terms of development.

I think both the Sabres and the Flames have the chance to be next years Florida if they can solve a few key holes. We just have to keep an eye on goaltending in particular. Oilers on the other hand have more serious and systemic issues so they are still behind BUF and CGY in their rebuild. I think the Sabres and Flames are closer to contending than WPG, EDM or ARI.

[Traditional_Ale]

When we have are spending to the cap we are done rebuilding and we can assess how the rebuild went.

We need a goalie.

[Jason14h]

I would say the rebuild is over to an extent. The Flames are a cap team and only ditching UFA's as they are out of the playoffs.

Maybe we never entered a true 'proper' tear down rebuild. This is part of the issue why Canadian teams are all struggling IMO.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

A rebuild will continue until the team has a solid youthful core with depth.

- 2 top pairing defenseman - Check
- 1st line LW - Check
- 1st-2nd line C - Check
- 1st line RW -
- Starting Goalie -
- Depth - Check

Realistically I think the Flames are a goalie and 1st line RWer away from having a complete core. If we end up with a top line RW prospect/UFA and sign a good UFA goaltender, then I'd consider the rebuild over.

As we've seen with Edmonton, patience doesn't always pay off and in this cap era GM's need to know when to make a move.

That said, it's not like teams go immediately from rebuild to contender. It takes time to develop a young core, but the point of the rebuild is to acquire that main core in the first place.

I predict this will be the last full rebuilding season and the Flames will be a contender within 3 years.

[MarkGio]

We still haven't finished tearing down. The following people still need to be replaced by the "rebuilt" pieces:
-- Stajan
-- Smid
-- Wideman
-- Raymond
-- Bollig

Other than Burke giving Stajan too much term, we always knew these guys were stop gaps. We just go lucky and it turned out Gaudreau didn't need a year in the AHL, Monahan didn't need another year or two in juniors, and so on. I assume the management team took into consideration that it was possible that some of our young guys might have needed more time to develop.

The plan hasn't changed? Based on how most of the veteran's contracts expire at the end of next season, it's clear that the Flames were expecting to finally have a built, competitive product at the start of the 2017-18 season.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Fine. Then let's not talk as if possession were an end in itself.

Let's not talk as if making the playoffs once were an end in itself. That would imply the Flames rebuild ended last year.

And let's not talk as if all shots on goal were of equal value

And no one did.

And for the love of all that goes on skates, let's not talk as if Corsi or Fenwick actually measured possession. They don't.

They don't need to. They correlate to consistent playoff teams that don't rely on all-world goaltending.

Back to my criteria
> 50% score-adjusted Corsi
> 50% scored-adjusted Fenwick
> 20th ranked PP

Here are the teams that satisfy those three criteria:
CHI (51.4 / 50.8 / 2nd)
NYI (50.9 / 50.9 / 12th)
WAS (51.6 / 51.6 / 1st)
PIT (51.8 / 51.9 / 16th)
STL (51.7 / 52.0 / 8th)
MTL (52.5 / 52.2 / 19th)
SJS (51.3 / 52.6 / 3rd)
DAL (53.6 / 53.0 / 6th)
NSH (52.9 / 54.0 / 10th)
ANA (53.6 / 54.2 / 4th)
LAK ( 56.7 / 56.1 / 5th)

Which of those teams is rebuilding?

Answer: None. All of them are teams looking to plug in their roster well enough to contend for a cup. There are a pair (NSH / MTL) that have had major goaltending issues, but goaltending is something you fill without being using being a rebuilding team as an excuse. Bold, btw, are playoff teams. THat's 10 of 11. And the Habs were 1st in the league before Price went down.

The end goal isn't a stat. But when there are stats highly correllated with being a good playoff team, you have to fulfill those baseline criteria before you can start tweaking.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Cute but not useful. By that definition, the St. Louis Blues have been in a rebuild for 49 years. Somehow I don't think it works that way.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Seriously though if we can solve our goaltending like Florida did then I really think we're poised to take a serious step forward like Florida has. Florida is another good young team. They are just a year or two ahead of us in terms of development.

I think both the Sabres and the Flames have the chance to be next years Florida if they can solve a few key holes. We just have to keep an eye on goaltending in particular. Oilers on the other hand have more serious and systemic issues so they are still behind BUF and CGY in their rebuild. I think the Sabres and Flames are closer to contending than WPG, EDM or ARI.

If I may...

The Panthers turned the corner when Gallant was hired. He taught defensive systems and worked hard on individuals playing well on the defensive side of things. The results in his first year was a pretty good defensive team that struggled to score goals. What's happened this year is that the term already knows how to play defense, and the offense has exploded because they can work on it more since the defensive side is mostly taken care of.

Goaltenders help, and no doubt Luongo has been good in Florida, but if you look at the last year he had in Vancouver many thought he was going to be a major burden to a team with declining play. Shows you what a good defensive team can do for a goalie's numbers and perceptions.



Here's my thought on the OP's question. We will be a contender when we learn how to play defense. It's that simple. There are very few teams that can outscore their problems defensively. Dallas would be an outlier, but they've also assembled the very best forward group in the entire league. Chances are, unless they improve defensively, they'll have trouble making the playoffs again next year. It's just too hard these days to win if you can't keep the puck out of your net.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

A rebuild will continue until the team has a solid youthful core with depth.

- 2 top pairing defenseman - Check
- 1st line LW - Check
- 1st-2nd line C - Check
- 1st line RW -
- Starting Goalie -
- Depth - Check

Realistically I think the Flames are a goalie and 1st line RWer away from having a complete core. If we end up with a top line RW prospect/UFA and sign a good UFA goaltender, then I'd consider the rebuild over.

As we've seen with Edmonton, patience doesn't always pay off and in this cap era GM's need to know when to make a move.

That said, it's not like teams go immediately from rebuild to contender. It takes time to develop a young core, but the point of the rebuild is to acquire that main core in the first place.

I predict this will be the last full rebuilding season and the Flames will be a contender within 3 years.

I wouldn't say we have a number one centre as of yet. If you factor in the fact that the Flames have one of the worst records in the league, here's how I perceive our roster today:

Gaudreau - XXXX - XXXX
Bennett - Monahan - XXXX
XXXX - Backlund - Frolik
Bouma - Jooris - Ferland

Giordano - Brodie
XXXX - Hamilton
Nakladal - Wideman

XXXX
Ortio


So there's a need for a number one centre, two top 6 RWs, a top 9 LW and a top 4 defenseman and starting goalie.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Let's not talk as if making the playoffs once were an end in itself. That would imply the Flames rebuild ended last year.

I never said that or implied it. You made that up.

And no one did.

The assumption that all shots on goal are of equal value is built into the Corsi and Fenwick ‘stats’. The people who invented them and advocate for them specifically claim that shot quality is not a variable, because it averages out and every team in the long run gets the same quality of shots. So the minute you use Corsi or Fenwick as a measure of anything, you are accepting that assumption.

Back to my criteria
> 50% score-adjusted Corsi
> 50% scored-adjusted Fenwick
> 20th ranked PP

Here are the teams that satisfy those three criteria:
CHI (51.4 / 50.8 / 2nd)
NYI (50.9 / 50.9 / 12th)
WAS (51.6 / 51.6 / 1st)
PIT (51.8 / 51.9 / 16th)
STL (51.7 / 52.0 / 8th)
MTL (52.5 / 52.2 / 19th)
SJS (51.3 / 52.6 / 3rd)
DAL (53.6 / 53.0 / 6th)
NSH (52.9 / 54.0 / 10th)
ANA (53.6 / 54.2 / 4th)
LAK ( 56.7 / 56.1 / 5th)

Which of those teams is rebuilding?

Answer: None. All of them are teams looking to plug in their roster well enough to contend for a cup. There are a pair (NSH / MTL) that have had major goaltending issues, but goaltending is something you fill without being using being a rebuilding team as an excuse. Bold, btw, are playoff teams. THat's 10 of 11. And the Habs were 1st in the league before Price went down.

Six of 16 playoff teams do not meet your criteria. That suggests that your criteria are highly susceptible to false negatives.

The end goal isn't a stat. But when there are stats highly correllated with being a good playoff team, you have to fulfill those baseline criteria before you can start tweaking.

That's nice. You haven't shown a high correlation. Again, 37.5% of this year's playoff teams do not meet your supposed baseline criteria.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I wouldn't say we have a number one centre as of yet. If you factor in the fact that the Flames have one of the worst records in the league, here's how I perceive our roster today:

Gaudreau - XXXX - XXXX
Bennett - Monahan - XXXX
XXXX - Backlund - Frolik
Bouma - Jooris - Ferland

Giordano - Brodie
XXXX - Hamilton
Nakladal - Wideman

XXXX
Ortio


So there's a need for a number one centre, two top 6 RWs, a top 9 LW and a top 4 defenseman and starting goalie.

You lost all credibility the second you pencil Bennett in as a LWer. He will be a centre in this league for the next 15+ years.

Between Bennett and Monahan we have 1A/1B Centremen. Monahan at 21 years old doesn't look out of place against top competition.

And when you start talking top 9 LW I'm further convinced you have no clue what the word core means (or the abundance of top 9 LWers in our system).

[GirlySports]

Division Title. At the beginning of the season, the goal is to be consistent enough in an 82 game season to challenge for a Division title, not sneak into the playoffs in 6th or 7th place. The rebuild isn't considered complete until the Flames challenge for the division and 100+ points three years in a row.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

You lost all credibility the second you pencil Bennett in as a LWer. He will be a centre in this league for the next 15+ years.

Between Bennett and Monahan we have 1A/1B Centremen.

And when you start talking top 9 LW I'm further convinced you have no clue what the word core means (or the abundance of top 9 LWers in our system).

I said TODAY. You lost credibility if you think Bennett is a number one centre as of today. I'm not saying he won't be in the future, but a lot can change. Bennett is still slender and he needs to iron out some things before he can be a top 6 centreman. If the Flames draft Mathews or add Jankowski to the roster next season, who knows, maybe Bennett stays a winger.

He has what, 5 games as a centremen in his NHL career? And you used the word core, not me?!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I wouldn't say we have a number one centre as of yet. If you factor in the fact that the Flames have one of the worst records in the league, here's how I perceive our roster today:

Gaudreau - XXXX - XXXX
Bennett - Monahan - XXXX
XXXX - Backlund - Frolik
Bouma - Jooris - Ferland

Giordano - Brodie
XXXX - Hamilton
Nakladal - Wideman

XXXX
Ortio

So there's a need for a number one centre, two top 6 RWs, a top 9 LW and a top 4 defenseman and starting goalie.

Bennett projects as a #1 centre in two years IMO. So that hole is already filled, not now but it will be down the line.

Gaudreau-Bennett-????
????-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund-Colborne
Bouma-Stajan-Hathaway
Agostino-Hamilton/Arnold-Jooris

Gio-Brodie
????-Hamilton
Wotherspoon-Nakladal/Engelland
?Wideman?

????
????

To me we're two wingers, one top 4 d-man and a starting goalie away from a playoff contender. I expect the draft to give us a #1 winger or top 3 d-man with our top pick. If we can land a 2nd line winger in UFA and somehow solve goaltending then I think we're really close.

We need to dump Wideman though, he's starting to hold back our young D IMO.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I never said that or implied it. You made that up.

And I never implied corsi is the "end-goal" just because it measures where teams are at. You made that up.

The assumption that all shots on goal are of equal value is built into the Corsi and Fenwick ‘stats’. The people who invented them and advocate for them specifically claim that shot quality is not a variable, because it averages out and every team in the long run gets the same quality of shots. So the minute you use Corsi or Fenwick as a measure of anything, you are accepting that assumption.

Accepting that shot quality averages out over 82+ games is not the same as accepting that all shot attempts are the same. One is a belief that good offense beats good defense, so don't be defending (like Darryl Sutter, first in league in GAA), the other is a belief that good defense beats good offense, so defend "well" (I.E. Bob Hartley, last in league iN GAA). I believe good offense beats good defense every time. Only way to beat good offense is by having the puck.

Six of 16 playoff teams do not meet your criteria.

And those six teams are:

Tukka Rask and a pretender
Semyon Varlamov and a pretender
Henrik Lundqvist and a pretender
Roberto Luongo and a still-rebuilding team
The Red Wings (24th ranked PP, fulfil the corsi/fenwick criteria)
The Lightning (21st ranked PP, fulfil the corsi/fenwick criteria)

Sorry, I don't want to be where the Rangers and Avs are at right now. I wouldn't mind being where the Panthers are at as part of their rebuild, but I would be very nervous if I were a Panthers fan and they were spending 1st round picks on deadline deals.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I said TODAY. You lost credibility if you think Bennett is a number one centre as of today. I'm not saying he won't be in the future, but a lot can change. Bennett is still slender and he needs to iron out some things before he can be a top 6 centreman. If the Flames draft Mathews or add Jankowski to the roster next season, who knows, maybe Bennett stays a winger.

He has what, 5 games as a centremen in his NHL career? And you used the word core, not me?!

You'd have no problem pencilling Matthews in as a #1 centre but Sam Bennett who was the #1 rated player by Central Scouting and Redline Report in his draft year can't be pencilled in as our #1 centre even though he's two years older than Matthews?

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Bennett projects as a #1 centre in two years IMO. So that hole is already filled, not now but it will be down the line.

Gaudreau-Bennett-????
????-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund-Colborne
Bouma-Stajan-Hathaway
Agostino-Hamilton/Arnold-Jooris

Gio-Brodie
????-Hamilton
Wotherspoon-Nakladal/Engelland
?Wideman?

????
????

To me we're two wingers, one top 4 d-man and a starting goalie away from a playoff contender. I expect the draft to give us a #1 winger or top 3 d-man with our top pick. If we can land a 2nd line winger in UFA and somehow solve goaltending then I think we're really close.

We need to dump Wideman though, he's starting to hold back our young D IMO.

Things change so quickly. I remember when the Flames had "the best goalie depth in the league". Ramo was one of the best in the KHL, Berra was one of the best in the Swiss, Gillies was one of the best in the NCAA, Ortio was one of the best in the AHL, and Brossoit was one the best in the WHL. Now look at our goalie depth?!

I'm not saying Bennett won't be a number centre. I'm saying he's not a number one centre and he might not be a number one centre. I think in just being more realistic as to where we are today