Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[CampbellsTransgressions]

Originally Posted by linecook

At current prices, Saudi will be broke in 2019.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/23/saudi...cheap-oil.html

We had sub $15 barrel oil for a long time in the 90's and we're still around.

Because we had natural gas.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by bsimms

So if the Saudi's are going through approx 95 billion/year, and this downturn is approx 1 year old... they only have 6.5 years until $0. What will Alberta look like in 6.5 years from now with sub-forty dollar oil? I think the Saudi's will be just fine, but not so sure about us.

The Saudi's can probably outlast us but not by much. The bigger issue for them is the other OPEC countries that don't have the same cash reserves and cannot last nearly as long. They are already beginning to pressure the Saudis on prices. How long this can go on before someone blinks I honestly don't know but I think sooner rather than later someone will have to.

[IliketoPuck]

Riiiiiight.

http://boereport.com/2016/03/01/queb...eline-project/

[linecook]

Originally Posted by CampbellsTransgressions

Because we had natural gas.

Nat gas was pretty cheap back then too but I don't expect we'll ever see high price for a very long time. Fortunately we have condy now and these fields are still being drilled. The reason why our drill count has not gone down as much as the US is because of this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ca...0EH18420140606

Alberta won't be the same place as it was 18 months ago but we will be alright.

[Tiger]

Originally Posted by CampbellsTransgressions

Because we had natural gas.

Many don't realize we are probably stronger in natural gas than oil. If we want to turn things around in Canada, exporting LNG (and a recovery in natural gas prices) would be the most helpful

[_Q_]

With mandates all over this continent to convert from "dirty" coal fired power generation into "clean" natural gas facilities, there's a better chance for an increase in gas prices than oil (especially in the medium term).

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Riiiiiight.

http://boereport.com/2016/03/01/queb...eline-project/

As much as I dislike "some" Quebecer's viewpoint on Energy East, this isn't out of line. Alberta projects now garner approval via joint review boards (Federal/provincial).

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

As much as I dislike "some" Quebecer's viewpoint on Energy East, this isn't out of line. Alberta projects now garner approval via joint review boards (Federal/provincial).

How is this not completely out of line? Which Alberta pipeline projects that cross provincial borders are approved via joint review boards?

Energy East is a project that falls under the jurisdiction of the NEB. Federal jurisdiction. Quebec wanting to have a seat at the table is irrelevant, it isn't their jurisdiction.

Quebec is completely overstepping its bounds here.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

As much as I dislike "some" Quebecer's viewpoint on Energy East, this isn't out of line. Alberta projects now garner approval via joint review boards (Federal/provincial).

Except that the transportation of goods is a federal mandate and not a provincial mandate.

This would be equivalent to Alberta demanding to stop and review every Quebec product that uses the Alberta highway infrastructure. If we decided to stop it the Feds would rightfully step in and stat, you cannot do that we reviewed it and approved it.

The provincial environmental concerns are supposed to be taken into account during the federal reviews as are aboriginal concerns and all of that other stuff.

Quebec basically wants say over something that is not in their mandate.

This would be equivalent to Manitoba and Ontario telling Quebec that they don't want their electrical lines polluted with Quebec power.

This is ridiculous and it comes down to Quebec wanting the ability to blackmail Alberta over the transport of its product through their territory.

At this point the federal government needs to step in and public ally clarify the review process, and set hard dates on it.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by Tiger

Many don't realize we are probably stronger in natural gas than oil. If we want to turn things around in Canada, exporting LNG (and a recovery in natural gas prices) would be the most helpful

Originally Posted by _Q_

With mandates all over this continent to convert from "dirty" coal fired power generation into "clean" natural gas facilities, there's a better chance for an increase in gas prices than oil (especially in the medium term).

Yeah, LNG exports. I putting that about on par with getting oil pipelines built. Sigh....

True re: Natural Gas plants.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Except that the transportation of goods is a federal mandate and not a provincial mandate.

This would be equivalent to Alberta demanding to stop and review every Quebec product that uses the Alberta highway infrastructure. If we decided to stop it the Feds would rightfully step in and stat, you cannot do that we reviewed it and approved it.

The provincial environmental concerns are supposed to be taken into account during the federal reviews as are aboriginal concerns and all of that other stuff.

Quebec basically wants say over something that is not in their mandate.

This would be equivalent to Manitoba and Ontario telling Quebec that they don't want their electrical lines polluted with Quebec power.

This is ridiculous and it comes down to Quebec wanting the ability to blackmail Alberta over the transport of its product through their territory.

At this point the federal government needs to step in and public ally clarify the review process, and set hard dates on it.

I'm quoting this, but I think my response will cover both responses to my statement. From that very tiny article, Quebec wants the pipeline construction to follow Quebec's environmental requirements in addition to the federal ones. Admittedly I have zero clue what the difference would be. However, from a strictly environmental perspective, I can understand Quebec's desire to have a say in the construction practices (again from an environmental perspective) as the construction practices will have more environmental impact on their land than anything else. They do say this shouldn't be construed as an objection to the pipeline itself. And it doesn't seem to suggest this will lead into tariffs. That I would be against.

I certainly agree with your point regarding alignment between federal environmental requirements and provincial. I suppose I'm assuming Quebec feels the federal process doesn't cover off some of their key concerns. If the federal process does this, then my point is moot.

[burn_this_city]

The Quebec regulations include the continuous filling of brown envelopes with money for politicians. Also includes some verbage about sewage discharge into rivers and lakes, more being better.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I'm quoting this, but I think my response will cover both responses to my statement. From that very tiny article, Quebec wants the pipeline construction to follow Quebec's environmental requirements in addition to the federal ones. Admittedly I have zero clue what the difference would be. However, from a strictly environmental perspective, I can understand Quebec's desire to have a say in the construction practices (again from an environmental perspective) as the construction practices will have more environmental impact on their land than anything else. They do say this shouldn't be construed as an objection to the pipeline itself. And it doesn't seem to suggest this will lead into tariffs. That I would be against.

I certainly agree with your point regarding alignment between federal environmental requirements and provincial. I suppose I'm assuming Quebec feels the federal process doesn't cover off some of their key concerns. If the federal process does this, then my point is moot.

The federal review process should or does cover provincial concerns.

but what Quebec is literally doing here is throwing this into the courts because it will take years and a billion appeals for it to get decided on and Quebec will hold the supreme hammer on this.

Look we can drop the courts if you do what we say.

The fact that Trudeau basically made the change to the review process that was explained as "We're pretty much going to take more time" is a big enough concern.

Quebec at this point should know whether their environmental statutes and rules are considered in the federal government review process and if they're not they could have played nice during the consultation stage. Instead they went to add a bullet to the blackmail gun.

Alberta really needs to reciprocate by stating that the Quebec transportation of goods across Alberta is a negative environmental impact, and that they want the courts to decide on the constitutionality of damage recovery from Quebec and to define what is safe transport.

Then get an injunction against any Quebec products crossing Alberta by rail or truck or airplane, and lock it in the courts for 20 years.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I'm quoting this, but I think my response will cover both responses to my statement. From that very tiny article, Quebec wants the pipeline construction to follow Quebec's environmental requirements in addition to the federal ones. Admittedly I have zero clue what the difference would be. However, from a strictly environmental perspective, I can understand Quebec's desire to have a say in the construction practices (again from an environmental perspective) as the construction practices will have more environmental impact on their land than anything else. They do say this shouldn't be construed as an objection to the pipeline itself. And it doesn't seem to suggest this will lead into tariffs. That I would be against.

I certainly agree with your point regarding alignment between federal environmental requirements and provincial. I suppose I'm assuming Quebec feels the federal process doesn't cover off some of their key concerns. If the federal process does this, then my point is moot.

I'd like a single line item within the Quebec environmental regulations that doesn't involve taxation, money, or specs on the size of the burlap sack used to deliver money to politicians, that the federal regulations do not cover.

I can understand their desire to want to have the final say on a giant project like this too. It'd be a huge political win for them that they can use as a bargaining chip for years to come. However, that's not how a country is supposed to work.

Seriously though at this point I'm just amused that inter-provincial trade is harder than international trade.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Regorium

I'd like a single line item within the Quebec environmental regulations that doesn't involve taxation, money, or specs on the size of the burlap sack used to deliver money to politicians, that the federal regulations do not cover.

I can understand their desire to want to have the final say on a giant project like this too. It'd be a huge political win for them that they can use as a bargaining chip for years to come. However, that's not how a country is supposed to work.

Seriously though at this point I'm just amused that inter-provincial trade is harder than international trade.

Which is a mandate of the federal government.

Trudeau needs to either stand up and support this pipeline if it gets through federal review and state that right now, if it passes the federal review that the government is behind it.

Or just tell Alberta that Quebec is more important and that they're killing the review so we don't bank on it and we can start buying really shoddy poorly maintained tanker trucks driven by goons in hockey masks armed with spears to start transporting our oil to market.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Regorium

I'd like a single line item within the Quebec environmental regulations that doesn't involve taxation, money, or specs on the size of the burlap sack used to deliver money to politicians, that the federal regulations do not cover.

I can understand their desire to want to have the final say on a giant project like this too. It'd be a huge political win for them that they can use as a bargaining chip for years to come. However, that's not how a country is supposed to work.

Seriously though at this point I'm just amused that inter-provincial trade is harder than international trade.

I can't argue with any of that, nor can I argue against CC's points. Mostly, because I have no energy or desire to understand the differences, if any, between the federal environmental regulations and Quebec's.

I'm also not naive enough to think Quebec's concerns are purely environmental. In the end, I'm likely agreeing with everyone questioning my original statement. However, if the feds have failed to address specific Quebec environmental concerns, then I understand their point of view when it comes to the construction of the pipeline. That's all.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Trudeau needs to either stand up and support this pipeline if it gets through federal review and state that right now, if it passes the federal review that the government is behind it.
.

I think you've said it many times, and I agree whole heartedly, but Trudeau does need to lose his wishy washy stance on energy east.

[IliketoPuck]

What riding is Trudeau from again? Papineau, Montreal?

Right then, nothing to see here. Wishy washy stance on Energy East it is.

[CaptainCrunch]

I have zero faith in Trudeau putting much energy into the Alberta file. I think he likes what's happening here just fine.

Remember that Canada is much better off being ruled by Quebec and the country belongs to him

Those are his words.

So if he can get some kicks in at the province that hated his father so much he's going to be all over it.

But thanks for the pocket change.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I have zero faith in Trudeau putting much energy into the Alberta file. I think he likes what's happening here just fine.

Remember that Canada is much better off being ruled by Quebec and the country belongs to him

Those are his words.

So if he can get some kicks in at the province that hated his father so much he's going to be all over it.

But thanks for the pocket change.

It went both ways.

We had a lunchroom chat with one of our executives last week and he told a story of when he was a teenager growing up in Ontario and his experience coming to Alberta for the first time. His father sent him to Alberta to work for the summer and when he returned to Ontario, his family (I guess it was an important family) was having dinner with Pierre Trudeau and they had this discussion:

Ontario Boy: "Did you know there are a lot of hard working people in Alberta that feel like your government doesn't care about them and that they don't matter?"

Pierre Trudeau: "That's right. They don't matter!!!"