Why Erik Karlsson should win the Hart

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by kerriffic

So basically the bottom graphic looks at the players relative to all defenceman with over 500 min of five vs five hockey..... Players to the right = good, and players to the left of the graph = not so good. The middle players are considered average in relation to the rest of the league. I mean right now doughty isn't even the best on his own team, he's very much average.

Your conclusion, when looking at this graph, shouldn't be: Doughty is average. It should be: this graph is garbage.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Your conclusion, when looking at this graph, shouldn't be: Doughty is average. It should be: this graph is garbage.

Science!

[kerriffic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Your conclusion, when looking at this graph, shouldn't be: Doughty is average. It should be: this graph is garbage.

Advanced stats while controversial do have their place, obviously we know how the flames bucked the trend last season. I just think that karlsson (despite his bad game last night) is a generational player. And probably should win the Norris this year.

Besides how could you not give it to this guy?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by kerriffic

Advanced stats while controversial do have their place

Yes, and they establish Erik Karlsson is a good player...

...when Marc Methot is his partner. Methot, who perfectly covers for all his weaknesses.

Karlsson W Methot: 2.36 GA60
Karlsson WO Methot: 2.95 GA60

And that's fine. I have no problem if someone wants to call Karlsson-Methot the best pairing in the NHL. You have Karlsson's ability to generate offense, and Methot's ability to suppress offense. It is a great pairing.

But Doughty is individually able to do what Karlsson-Methot do as a pair in terms of advanced stats. IN fact

Doughty W McNabb: 1.41 GA60

When Doughty plays top pair minutes and is paired with a guy who would be 3rd pairing on every team in the NHL, his team lets in half the goals that Karlsson's team lets in when Karlsson is on the ice away from Methot.

Doughty does everything Karlsson does + does everything Methot does. He is ultimate.

[kerriffic]

I'll give you that's a very convincing argument, I hadn't thought of some of what your saying..... Unfortunately out here in St John's the King's games don't generally start until 1230 at night, so the best I can ever do is see occasional highlights. For some reason Ottawa and Montreal are the two teams that are our sportsnet "region", so I see a lot more of karlsson.

[BlackRedGold25]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Anyone see the Senators/Canucks game last night? Man this guy is horrible defensively. Horrible! Got lit up by the Canucks B grade players. It's kind of a farce the Karlsson should ever win another Norris. If you want to glorify him for his points give out a trophy for best rover but this guy single handedly makes Phaneuf look like a shut down defender.

I guess you want him on your team because he's a top scorer but he's so bad defensively that he's a boom or bust guy. The fact that the more he scores the worse the Senators record is makes me wonder if any team could truly win anything substantial with this guy being your top defenseman.

Apparently you didn't see the game last night either. Of the three 5 on 5 goals he was on for last night, one was the result of a rookie forward failing to take Etem while Karlsson covered his man in front of the net. The other two goals were from Bartkowski coming in from the point. Do you think Karlsson should be covering dmen on the point?

But keep basing your opinions on the boxscore. It is almost as bad as the silly stats lovers.

[Coach]

If the stats you're following, advanced or otherwise, show that Karlsson or Doughty are anything but top tier players, the math is flawed.

[SuperMatt18]

Primary points per 60 is a terrible statistic for a d-man, especially for a d-man that is playing 30 minutes a game in tough situations.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Yes, and they establish Erik Karlsson is a good player...

...when Marc Methot is his partner. Methot, who perfectly covers for all his weaknesses.

Karlsson W Methot: 2.36 GA60
Karlsson WO Methot: 2.95 GA60

And that's fine. I have no problem if someone wants to call Karlsson-Methot the best pairing in the NHL. You have Karlsson's ability to generate offense, and Methot's ability to suppress offense. It is a great pairing.

But Doughty is individually able to do what Karlsson-Methot do as a pair in terms of advanced stats. IN fact

Doughty W McNabb: 1.41 GA60

When Doughty plays top pair minutes and is paired with a guy who would be 3rd pairing on every team in the NHL, his team lets in half the goals that Karlsson's team lets in when Karlsson is on the ice away from Methot.

Doughty does everything Karlsson does + does everything Methot does. He is ultimate.

You are using a team stat to evaluate an individual.


Have you considered that Karlsson's GA rises without Methot because every other Dman they play him with is a bum?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by saillias

You are using a team stat to evaluate an individual.


Have you considered that Karlsson's GA rises without Methot because every other Dman they play him with is a bum?

As are most of the forwards?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by saillias

You are using a team stat to evaluate an individual

Everything is a team statistic. Including counting statistics. There is no such thing as a team-independant statistic, other than maybe penalties.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Everything is a team statistic. Including counting statistics. There is no such thing as a team-independant statistic, other than maybe penalties.

But team GA/60 is a horrible, horrible stat to compare players from two different teams

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

But team GA/60 is a horrible, horrible stat to compare players from two different teams

I would agree, but when people are thumping CF% under the pretense that Karlsson's possession stats mean he's keeping the puck out of the net, it's relevant.

His possession stats don't result in him keeping the puck out of the net.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

If Karlsson is putting up points, that means the puck isn't in his end, which means he's doing his job.

Wrong.

Last season, the Flames were in the top third of the league in scoring. But the puck spent a great deal of time in their end.

Believe it or not, there is room for more than one thing to happen in a 60-minute hockey game. There is, for instance, enough time for Karlsson to spend time in the offensive zone and put up points… and for Karlsson to spend time in the defensive zone and allow the opposition to put up points. The team's defensive record suggests that this happens quite a lot.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I would agree, but when people are thumping CF% under the pretense that Karlsson's possession stats mean he's keeping the puck out of the net, it's relevant.

His possession stats don't result in him keeping the puck out of the net.

If you compare him to his teammates it's very relevant

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

If you compare him to his teammates it's very relevant

And if you compare him to his peers it's less relevant.

What Karlsson is doing on a bad team isn't more valuable than what better players are doing on better teams just because they're on better teams.

[VladtheImpaler]

Interesting reading. I would just say, based on my viewings and the things I read, if we were to hold a draft today with sole object of winning the 2016 SC, I would pick Doughty first overall. I don't know where I would pick Karlsson, but I would pick Keith second. Somewhere ahead of Karlsson, I would take Kane.

[GranteedEV]

Appropriate time to bump?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Karlsson is no Doughty.

[sun]

Meh, one of the best players in the league turned him inside-out. It happens.

JG has owned Doughty before too.