[Trade] Markus Granlund to Van for Shinkaruk

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

People should remember that Shinkaruk was ranked around 12th overall in his draft year. His stock took a tumble after the draft due to an injury, but this year it's recovered quite a bit. I think top 5 is totally a fair spot for him.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

People should remember that Shinkaruk was ranked around 12th overall in his draft year. His stock took a tumble after the draft due to an injury, but this year it's recovered quite a bit. I think top 5 is totally a fair spot for him.

He obviously wasn't ranked 12th by many if any NHL teams. He wasn't taken in the top 20 and the NHL team lists are the rankings that matter the most in the end.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He obviously wasn't ranked 12th by many if any NHL teams. He wasn't taken in the top 20 and the NHL team lists are the rankings that matter the most in the end.

I disagree with that viewpoint... First, there's no way to know without seeing their draft lists; Every team could have had him ranked 12th and just happened to have someone ranked 11th who was lower on the "pre-draft consensus" list.

But moreover, NHL GM's aren't inherently correct. They have their scouting departments, and media and third parties not affiliated with NHL teams have their own, and they can come to different reasoned conclusions which aren't automatically more or less valid.

[ricosuave]

we traded for position and potential compared to someone in our system, or and waiver eligibility status. nothing more.

hopefully he pans out, he does seem to fill a need for us in those areas.

[Bingo]

I just don't see myself stressing this one.

1) I saw Granlund as Calgary's Colborne next year - not good enough to make the team good enough to worry about trying to get him through waivers. So they'd shop him during camp and take the best thing offered which my gut says would have been a 3rd round pick.

2) I honestly felt because of 1) above he'd be a sweetner in a deadline deal this weekend ... Hudler for a 2nd wasn't getting done, so Hudler and Granlund for a 2nd and 3rd kind of thing

either way they don't need centers, he can't play the wing, it wasn't going to work.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I disagree with that viewpoint... First, there's no way to know without seeing their draft lists; Every team could have had him ranked 12th and just happened to have someone ranked 11th who was lower on the "pre-draft consensus" list.

But moreover, NHL GM's aren't inherently correct. They have their scouting departments, and media and third parties not affiliated with NHL teams have their own, and they can come to different reasoned conclusions which aren't automatically more or less valid.

Agreed. However the budget for an NHL team scouting a lot bigger, I'm sure most of them have much better coverage in general than the independent scouting services. They are the ones potentially investing millions of dollars into particular kids. Obviously some teams suck at drafting and an independent service might do a better job.

But it has to make you wonder when certain kids fall. Sometimes it doesn't really mean anything (Fowler, Forsberg) but sometimes it does (Esposito, Robbie Schremp.) Apparently Shinkaruk had terrible interviews for some reason. Apparently lots of people aren't convinced his game will translate to the NHL.

I think painting him as a top 12 calibre pick is sugarcoating things. Considering his history of falling in the draft, bad post draft year, good year after that but actively shopped by the team who controls him, he's still got a lot of questions about him. Enough so that I don't think he'd make my top 5. Even Treliving admitted that they weren't sure his game will translate to the NHL. So at this point he's still very much a gamble. Due to his boom/bust nature I have him lower but I'd understand why people might emphasize the upside and not be as concerned about whether he busts or not.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Agreed. However the budget for an NHL team scouting a lot bigger, I'm sure most of them have much better coverage in general than the independent scouting services. They are the ones potentially investing millions of dollars into particular kids. Obviously some teams suck at drafting and an independent service might do a better job.

In some cases, a potato might do a better job.

http://canucksarmy.com/2014/5/20/we-...outing-problem

But it has to make you wonder when certain kids fall. Sometimes it doesn't really mean anything (Fowler, Forsberg) but sometimes it does (Esposito, Robbie Schremp.) Apparently Shinkaruk had terrible interviews for some reason. Apparently lots of people aren't convinced his game will translate to the NHL.

Fowler and Forsberg failed? I don't know what you're talking about there. Guys like Schremp, it's easy to see how they fail - that type of player has always been a risk / reward scenario. High upside, but the way most teams are constructed you just can't use him if he doesn't pan out. He was never going to turn into Raffi Torres (who, whatever you think of him, was a high pick who ultimately turned into a useful bottom 6 guy for a number of years).

Even Treliving admitted that they weren't sure his game will translate to the NHL. So at this point he's still very much a gamble. Due to his boom/bust nature I have him lower but I'd understand why people might emphasize the upside and not be as concerned about whether he busts or not.

Yeah, this is exactly it: I think this is the type of gamble you have to make to be successful going forward. Guys who can fill out your bottom 6 are going to continue to get easier to replace on the open market for next to nothing, so "low downside risk" has limited value for me.

Meanwhile, getting a guy who turns into a top end offensive threat is going to become more and more impossible without drafting / developing that player from the stage at which Shinkaruk is now; e.g., "obviously promising signs but we don't know if his game will translate". Gotta buy low, or you'll never get them.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Fowler and Forsberg failed? I don't know what you're talking about there. Guys like Schremp, it's easy to see how they fail - that type of player has always been a risk / reward scenario. High upside, but the way most teams are constructed you just can't use him if he doesn't pan out. He was never going to turn into Raffi Torres (who, whatever you think of him, was a high pick who ultimately turned into a useful bottom 6 guy for a number of years).

Not fail. Fall. As in fall in the draft as compared to the rankings of the independent scouting services.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Ah, I misread. Yeah, I think those are probably instances of "perfect storm", where each team's scouting department probably thinks pretty highly of the player but randomly happens to have a "sleeper" pick ranked above them. Maybe a few don't want the player for some substantive reason or just fit. Random stuff happens at the draft.

All I can say is that everyone's wrong about Alex DeBrincat. Someone should take him 10-15th.

[Bingo]

I wrote an article for the Forecaster about 10 years ago that looking at guys taken way earlier and way later than they were ranked by CSB and it was interesting.

The guys taken early turned out very well on average, and the guys falling had rough careers by the numbers.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I wrote an article for the Forecaster about 10 years ago that looking at guys taken way earlier and way later than they were ranked by CSB and it was interesting.

The guys taken early turned out very well on average, and the guys falling had rough careers by the numbers.

Hopefully Shinkaruk and Kylington buck the trend.

[Roof-Daddy]

Saad fell from his draft ranking. I remember him being ranked in the top 10 in some pre-draft rankings. I think TSN had him low 20's or something. Ended up going 43rd overall, and that really blew up in the Hawks faces.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Saad fell from his draft ranking. I remember him being ranked in the top 10 in some pre-draft rankings. I think TSN had him low 20's or something. Ended up going 43rd overall, and that really blew up in the Hawks faces.

There's always exceptions to a solid generalization

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Saad fell from his draft ranking. I remember him being ranked in the top 10 in some pre-draft rankings. I think TSN had him low 20's or something. Ended up going 43rd overall, and that really blew up in the Hawks faces.

I remember that draft there were some mocks that had Saad going when the flames picked 13th. Hindsight being what it is thst would have been amazing.

That 2011 draft looks pretty amazing for Calgary in terms of payers picked

1st round 13th - Sven Baertschi 121 NHL games
2nd round 45th - Markus Ganlund 87 NHL games
2nd round 57th - Tyler Wotherspoon 19 NHL games
4th round 103rd - Johnny Gaudreau 140 NHL games
6th round 164th - Laurent Brossiot 2 NHL games

Every player drafted by Calgary has played in the NHL. Gaudreau is a legit superstar. Sven is a regular NHLer, Granlund is close to cementing that spot. Wortherspoon is looking like he could stick and Brossiot is a top prospect for the Oilers. Really crazy that we made 5 picks and traded 3 of those prospects to our 2 most hated rivals

[Flames Draft Watcher]

What is also crazy (although I hope everyone doesn't start lamenting this) is that they had Kucherov on a separate draft list just like Gaudreau. I wonder how close they were to selecting Kucherov in the 2nd with either of those picks. How insane would our draft have been if we had taken Kucherov instead of Granlund or Spooner? Wowza. I mean Granlund and Spooner look like NHLers so they weren't bad picks but Kucherov would've ben an insane pick obviously.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

What is also crazy (although I hope everyone doesn't start lamenting this) is that they had Kucherov on a separate draft list just like Gaudreau. I wonder how close they were to selecting Kucherov in the 2nd with either of those picks. How insane would our draft have been if we had taken Kucherov instead of Granlund or Spooner? Wowza. I mean Granlund and Spooner look like NHLers so they weren't bad picks but Kucherov would've ben an insane pick obviously.

I reall reading that the plan was to follow their list through the first 2 rounds and then Button could pick Johnny or Kucherov when he saw fit after that. When Kucherov went right after Spoon Feaster tried trading for a 3rd so they would not lose Johnny and fortunately they still got him

[dammage79]

In the end, I think Shinkaruk will be a better fit for the team as early as next season.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I just watched their highlights from last night and Granlund looked pretty good. A point and a few other chances.

The other thing that stood out to me is that they are running a middle six of Baertschi / Horvat / Virtanen - Vey / Granlund / Etem. Three things there. First, all of those guys are under 25, so they are actually going young (and McCann is playing 4C). Second, the third line is a pretty offensively oriented third line - that's not a grinding line by any stretch. Third, the entire Granlund line is made up of other teams' discarded prospects.

As bad as the Canucks management is, and I think they lost this trade, they actually are setting themselves up to rebuild, at least at forward. The problem, of course, is they have no potential first line center anywhere on the horizon. They're about to be pretty bad for a couple of years, which should yield a few consecutive top 10 (and possibly top 5) picks, so maybe there is some sort of plan here - if they did luck into Matthews, they'd be well on their way.

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I remember that draft there were some mocks that had Saad going when the flames picked 13th. Hindsight being what it is thst would have been amazing.

That 2011 draft looks pretty amazing for Calgary in terms of payers picked

1st round 13th - Sven Baertschi 121 NHL games
2nd round 45th - Markus Ganlund 87 NHL games
2nd round 57th - Tyler Wotherspoon 19 NHL games
4th round 103rd - Johnny Gaudreau 140 NHL games
6th round 164th - Laurent Brossiot 2 NHL games

Every player drafted by Calgary has played in the NHL. Gaudreau is a legit superstar. Sven is a regular NHLer, Granlund is close to cementing that spot. Wortherspoon is looking like he could stick and Brossiot is a top prospect for the Oilers. Really crazy that we made 5 picks and traded 3 of those prospects to our 2 most hated rivals

Isnt' this the same draft that Burke is on record as being unhappy with and one of the reasons for Feaster's dismissal?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Isnt' this the same draft that Burke is on record as being unhappy with and one of the reasons for Feaster's dismissal?

No that was 2012