The New American Politics thread

[troutman]

Can someone attack me please?

Good one Ben!

[White Out 403]

If I was American I'd vote trump over Clinton. Hillary is a bought and sold politician.

[nik-]

https://twitter.com/samueloakford/st...72903940730880

awesome

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by peter12

Trump has steadily eroded away all of the so-called barriers to his low-ceiling. Latinos have started voting for him, so have women.

I would like you to show me some evidence of this. And Nevada really doesn't count; it's a caucus state and turnout was pitiful.

Trump is clearly the favourite to win the nomination at this point, but winning the general election is a massively different proposition. I have seen nothing to indicate that he has moved sufficiently beyond his base of angry xenophobic white males to do that.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

If I was American I'd vote trump over Clinton. Hillary is a bought and sold politician.

Which is exactly why Trump is clearly starting to plant the seeds to try and attract Bernie supporters when he loses. This is why I continue to believe Trump will win the general, I think enough people want an "outsider" and someone who is "not bought and paid for" that they'll ignore how utterly catastrophic Trump would be, because Hillary or Rubio or another "insider" will be worse. I think trying to look at this race through traditional demographics is why people keep getting Trump's demise wrong.

After more thought last night was actually a great night for Trump. Sure he was a disaster, showed he has no substance and can't argue beyond a 3rd grade level, but Rubio and Cruz both did enough to stay in the race to March 15, and a 3 way race virtually guarantees the nomination for Trump.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think enough people want an "outsider" and someone who is "not bought and paid for" that they'll ignore how utterly catastrophic Trump would be

Wait, surely you're not suggesting that people would vote for a bad political option just to thumb their nose at the establishment and teach them a lesson. Even if you think they're corrupt and have held onto power too long, that would be cutting one's nose off to spite one's face! That seems overly pessimistic; the electorate has to be better than that.

Such a thing would never happen in Alberta, for example.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

If I was American I'd vote trump over Clinton. Hillary is a bought and sold politician.

Trump bought and sold Clinton and numerous other politicians. He is part of the same problem.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by troutman

Trump bought and sold Clinton and numerous other politicians. He is part of the same problem.

Yeah, that's the funny thing. The guy is a billionaire plutocrat who brags about his billions and his buying off of politicians, and yet people believe he's the ultimate outsider. That's insider stuff, people!

These are confusing times. We are talking about a man with a gold toilet, and he's going to look out for the little guy.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Looks like the Right has been United for too long in the US. Evangelicals are turning on Catholics, and GOP reps are ####ting shoe leather.

Catholics have been a key part of the Democratic coalition since forever. Democrats have won the Catholic vote in every election since they started tracking these things.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Wait, surely you're not suggesting that people would vote for a bad political option just to thumb their nose at the establishment and teach them a lesson. Even if you think they're corrupt and have held onto power too long, that would be cutting one's nose off to spite one's face! That seems overly pessimistic; the electorate has to be better than that.

Such a thing would never happen in Alberta, for example.

Slight difference of course being Albertans may destroy their own economy by choosing the NDP, Americans may annihilate the planet by choosing Trump.

[Nobama]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Slight difference of course being Albertans may destroy their own economy by choosing the NDP, Americans may annihilate the planet by choosing Trump.

It may already be too late. Another 4 Trillion borrowed by the current administration, Energy and Commodity price fixing, the middle east is at the brink of war.....ya, things couldn't be better!

[2Stonedbirds]

I think my favourite part of the debate was the throat slash gesture made by Bush senior.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I would like you to show me some evidence of this. And Nevada really doesn't count; it's a caucus state and turnout was pitiful.

Trump is clearly the favourite to win the nomination at this point, but winning the general election is a massively different proposition. I have seen nothing to indicate that he has moved sufficiently beyond his base of angry xenophobic white males to do that.

I posted evidence a few pages ago. Look it up! The most important indicator that has fallen is the ratio of voters who would never pick Trump under any circumstance. That number has fallen below Cruz, and is hovering around Rubio.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

Yeah, that's the funny thing. The guy is a billionaire plutocrat who brags about his billions and his buying off of politicians, and yet people believe he's the ultimate outsider. That's insider stuff, people!

These are confusing times. We are talking about a man with a gold toilet, and he's going to look out for the little guy.

If he wins the nomination, I'm really curious to see what happens in the Republican donor class. He's heavily insulted a lot of them, including the Koch network, which has a nearly billion dollar warchest for this campaign. Does he turn around and court them and risk being seen a hypocrite? Does he try to run a campaign without their money? And if so, do they sit this election cycle out? Do they go in for Clinton this once (who's the better ideological fit for them over Trump?) How does Adelson feel about Trump? They had an amicable meeting earlier in the campaign, but Trump frequently says things that most politicians attempting to court Adelson would avoid. There might be more trust of Clinton than Trump.



I do not realistically believe this would happen, but the best thing for the Republican donor class might be to field and finance an independent candidate, someone to the right of Trump, evangelical Christian, who can attack Trump on his Republican-in-name-only credentials. Such a candidate would not win. But it could dilute the Republican vote enough to ensure that Clinton wins the presidency, while keeping down-ballot performance strong enough to ensure that the Republicans don't suffer in the house or senate. It's not ideal for them, but the donor class is served reasonably well by gridlock so making sure that it continues is probably the best of available outcomes.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by peter12

I posted evidence a few pages ago. Look it up! The most important indicator that has fallen is the ratio of voters who would never pick Trump under any circumstance. That number has fallen below Cruz, and is hovering around Rubio.

What you posted was in the Florida (registered republican only) primary. How about something showing how his favorability is doing with independents?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Exactly. These gains among GOP members are just a further reflection of what we know--the GOP has lost control of its base, and they are all mad as hell. There isn't any doubt of that.

Where I've yet to see one shred of evidence is that Trump has sufficiently increased his favourability among key swing groups in the GENERAL election to overcome what are some pretty serious obstacles in the electoral college. If any such evidence exists I would love to see it, but until I do I remain convinced that Trump is Hillary Clinton's dream candidate.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by octothorp

What you posted was in the Florida (registered republican only) primary. How about something showing how his favorability is doing with independents?

So, if you looked at numbers back in August, you would see that Trump had almost no extraneous non-partisan support when compared to the two other forerunners. Now, he has pulled equal with Cruz.

So, as you said, we have no idea how Trump will match up with a Democrat nominee, and how that match-up will affect independent choice, and partisan cross-over. The best evidence we have now is Trump's steady erosion of voter bases that his opponents used to count on: Cruz and evangelicals, Rubio and Latinos, Rubio and women.

This primary cycle is pretty notable for the rapid fluctuation in voter stance. Only 2 months ago, Ben Carson had the highest favourability rating among Republicans and Independents (by far), and John Kasich was the most popular Republican candidate among Democrats. Sorry, where are those two candidates now.

A lot of people said that Trump was a high floor, low ceiling candidate. That still may be true. However, I like what Nate Silver said best the other day: Trump is the knuckleball candidate - just like in baseball, all you need is a bunch of pitchers that have generally the same style, and batters learn to hit on that style. Throw in one aberration, and that pitcher becomes incredibly successful.

Trump at this stage seems to be shedding his aberration status, and is clearly being taken seriously by the Republican establishment - as last night showed.

To go back to my previous post on Trump's cross-over appeal, I really think that you will start seeing his messaging, which is being tailored to the lower-half of the voter socioeconomic spectrum, take hold.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Exactly. These gains among GOP members are just a further reflection of what we know--the GOP has lost control of its base, and they are all mad as hell. There isn't any doubt of that.

Where I've yet to see one shred of evidence is that Trump has sufficiently increased his favourability among key swing groups in the GENERAL election to overcome what are some pretty serious obstacles in the electoral college. If any such evidence exists I would love to see it, but until I do I remain convinced that Trump is Hillary Clinton's dream candidate.

Yeah, I think a lot of Democrats have this vision of a Johnson v Goldwater rematch. I am not convinced.

In regards to the GOP base, yes, falling apart. I totally agree. What makes you think that same thing isn't happening to the Democrat base?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I think it is happening to the Democratic base, they are just an election cycle or so behind. My guess is that in either 4 or 8 years we will see a highly organized and unified Republican Party pitted against a Democratic Party that is in disarray, unsuccessfully fending off attacks from its own fringes. I don't know the future or anything, but that wouldn't surprise me.

I feel like I have the opposite view of Clinton to most people here. I don't think she is a very good candidate (too polarizing and unlikeable, not popular enough among independents) and don't actually think she'd make an especially good president, for the same reasons. I think in a head-to-head matchup against Rubio or Kasich, she is in big trouble -- notwithstanding any head-to-head polls, which are irrelevant this far out.

Her BEST hope to me is that the GOP nominates a candidate who is so flawed that they literally cannot win. Cruz and Trump are two such candidates, but short of one of those guys winning (and it now appears Trump is going to oblige her) I don't see how she gets into the White House.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I think it is happening to the Democratic base, they are just an election cycle or so behind.

I think the difference between two parties right now is that a lot of Republicans are really unhappy with their party; they're angry at government overall, but it extends to their own party; there's total distrust of the establishment. On the Democrat side, a lot are really unhappy with Clinton, but that doesn't seem to extend to a distrust and dislike of the party... yet. And while they are angry at government, they still primarily blame the Republicans. And to me that's a big difference; they're still rooting for their team.

Really, Obama bought the Democrats a little longer, because it's difficult to say that the party is establishment is railroading the party when the populist choice won out over the establishment choice so recently. Ultimately, I think the Sanders camp will get behind an 'Obama legacy' campaign in a general election.