May 2015 Provincial Election Thread v2

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think his point is that, like in the country to our south, the bolded point is being glossed over and there are people, even smart people, who legitimately think what is happening is ALL the NDP's fault. Like the provincial government of a small, oil-producing nation is somehow plummeting the oil price. There are people who have said this to me, no joke.

There are plenty of things wrong with what the NDP is doing, but pushing the point that they are causing this, is misinformation at best. All the articles against NDP mention it, but seem to glaze over it like a footnote and that is just wrong. It is the single largest factor in this crash. Yes, the NDP is not helping, but they are like 5% of the problem, maybe. No provincial government would be able to do anything that battles what is going on in any significant way.

So because they can only control 5% of the problem, it is acceptable for them to make things worse?

[Coach]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

So because they can only control 5% of the problem, it is acceptable for them to make things worse?

Yup. If you read through my post that's exactly what I said.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Yup. If you read through my post that's exactly what I said.

It pretty much is.

"No government can do anything to battle what is going on" is a cop out.

As is being demonstrated repeatedly, while they might not be able to counteract lower commodity prices in a commodity driven market, they certainly have the ability to make things worse on energy companies through asinine policy decisions.

So while they can only control 5%, they've done their best to use that 5% to pile on the problem as opposed to working to support the industry.

[Coach]

Mhmm. That might fit into the "there are plenty of things wrong with what the NDP is doing" part the post you quoted... no?

You don't have to condone the NDPs actions to admit the fact that there is nothing the AB government could do to combat the current market, regardless of their spot on the political spectrum. It's OK, no one will accuse you of being a communist. I promise.

You could drop the royalty rates to zero, it still wouldn't help.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Mhmm. That might fit into the "there are plenty of things wrong with what the NDP is doing" part the post you quoted... no?

Fair. Perhaps I am not reading it correctly, but your post came off to me as giving them a pass because they could only control 5%.

And they just keep chipping that 5% into the water.

[Coach]

I'm not giving anyone a pass. There was plenty wrong with the PC's excess, and there is plenty wrong with what the NDP is doing now.

I was simply commenting on the fact that almost every article I read completely glazes over the fact that there is nothing to be done until Saudi decides they want to stop. And that there are people who live here, smart people, who legitimately think the NDP could do something to fix it (or, more accurately, that someone else could do something to fix it).

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Wasn't that the prevalent issue with the Liberal's we'll make the rich pay their fair share and use it for middle class tax cuts.

What do you mean there aren't enough rich people for the math to work?

Also every single public sector project ever.

What do you mean the arena didn't generate 200M in tax revenue to pay for the CRL? OOPS.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I'm not giving anyone a pass. There was plenty wrong with the PC's excess, and there is plenty wrong with what the NDP is doing now.

I was simply commenting on the fact that almost every article I read completely glazes over the fact that there is nothing to be done until Saudi decides they want to stop. And that there are people who live here, smart people, who legitimately think the NDP could do something to fix it (or, more accurately, that someone else could do something to fix it).

No smart people can honestly believe the NDP can bring the price of oil back up.

Dropping the royalty rate would help Alberta compete for what small investments dollars do exist. The government can't bring the price of oil back up, but they should be doing their best to make Alberta as attractive as possible to help get us through this. They're not doing that, and that's what I think most people have an issue with.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Dropping the royalty rate would help Alberta compete for what small investments dollars do exist. The government can't bring the price of oil back up, but they should be doing their best to make Alberta as attractive as possible to help get us through this. They're not doing that, and that's what I think most people have an issue with.

Which was always a question that I had about this "review" in the first place. I'm sure it's in here or in v1 but I have no idea why they called it a review. It sounds like there was literally zero possibility of it actually reducing royalties in any scenario and that it was always just going to be a matter of "how much more to grab" regardless of the economic situation/reality.

[nik-]

It's also why their claim of wanting to reduce reliance on oil revenue is laughable. Sure lets be less reliant, but in the meantime we'll increase the portion of the budget it funds.

Oil companies are basically taking the blame and the pain for the PC's pissing away billions upon billions of found money.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No smart people can honestly believe the NDP can bring the price of oil back up.

Well they are engineers, and a few other oil-sector employees. So...

Dropping the royalty rate would help Alberta compete for what small investments dollars do exist. The government can't bring the price of oil back up, but they should be doing their best to make Alberta as attractive as possible to help get us through this. They're not doing that, and that's what I think most people have an issue with.

They may very well drop the rate. The review does not necessarily mean an increase (although I know it was the intention initially). I don't need to comment on all the things the NDP is doing wrong, they've been laid out multiple times here. What's frustrating is the implication that it would help save any jobs, or do anything to combat the current oil price. It just won't.

Yeah you might have some investment still, do you really think it would be enough to stop the bleeding? Dropping the royalties by 1 or 2% would be like putting your finger in a hole of the damn while Treebeard is ripping the whole thing down. As an NDP voter this time around, I'm just as frustrated (and likely more so) with their footdragging on these issues. But all these anti-NDP articles just glazing over the fact that there's really nothing to be done give uniformed people the idea that they can actually do something about it, and aren't. They aren't doing anything, presumably out of pure shell-shock, but the anger is misplaced.

If anything, the federal government still doing deals with Saudi should tick people off much more so.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by MattyC

...There are plenty of things wrong with what the NDP is doing, but pushing the point that they are causing this, is misinformation at best. ...

I cannot see anyone in the right mind suggesting that NDP is causing the collapse of the energy markets. That's a macroeconomic factor. However; NDP is not doing what's needed to adjust to this reality swiftly and decisively. They don't seem to know what's needed to be done and even those things they do know that need to be done – they delay doing them.

Klein's administration inherited a horrible financial mess in what Getty's government had left for them. That's at the "below $20" oil time. He and Dinning have balanced the budget and paid the debt in record time. The money saved on debt servicing have been diverted to new infrastructure. They negotiated reasonable contracts with all public unions. They left huge savings in the Heritage Fund. They have set the province up to enjoy the economic boom.

Klein's administration is often blamed for deferring major infrastructure projects and pushing regular folk to the brink with all the budget cuts. Yes, they did. Question is, was there any other reasonable and effective way to get out of the budget mess? And the answer is no, there wasn't. It had to be done, no matter how much it did hurt.

NDP's ideological approach to running the government makes them stumble. They refuse to ask what would a business do to survive? Many Alberta businesses are cutting 20% of the workforce and up to 20% remaining staff salaries to survive now. They can't afford to wait and even that may not be enough. NDP does not even want to consider reducing public sector wages. Businesses are cutting discretionary spending to none. NDP is hesitating. Businesses are looking at NDP and saying "give us some hope, show some leadership". NDP is saying we're not ready, we need more time. Climate change programs, coal energy industry murder (one of the cleanest coal energy extraction in the world!), income tax increases - all of that will a) take away more money from the working Albertans, b) increase the future cost of living to all Albertans and c) will make Alberta less attractive to investors. There is a substantial amount of foreign capital in Alberta's energy industry. This capital will move elsewhere, if it cannot be profitably re-invested locally.

Notley wants to show the world that Alberta is progressive and modern. I am sorry, we are too small for the world to care. I'd rather see us taking care of ourselves first without too much posturing.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nik-

It's also why their claim of wanting to reduce reliance on oil revenue is laughable. Sure lets be less reliant, but in the meantime we'll increase the portion of the budget it funds.

Oil companies are basically taking the blame and the pain for the PC's pissing away billions upon billions of found money.

The oil and gas sector were the biggest thing lobbying for the PC government that kept pissing everything away, them and the province's newspapers.

The Oil and Gas sector is where the 'grass roots' funding for Wild Rose came from that neutered Alberta's ability to conduct a royalty review when times were good which would have put the province on better footing and arguably the Oil and Gas industry as well.

A more callous individual than myself might find some schadenfreude in it, but like all things, there is cause and effect.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The oil and gas sector were the biggest thing lobbying for the PC government that kept pissing everything away, them and the province's newspapers.

The Oil and Gas sector is where the 'grass roots' funding for Wild Rose came from that neutered Alberta's ability to conduct a royalty review when times were good which would have put the province on better footing and arguably the Oil and Gas industry as well.

A more callous individual than myself might find some schadenfreude in it, but like all things, there is cause and effect.

Ok. They still handed over an insane amount of money to the government that then pissed it away. It's not the oil companies' fault.

If you give me a bunch of money, and I blow it, I shouldn't blame you and make you give me more. I should probably clean up my act.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Klein's administration inherited a horrible financial mess in what Getty's government had left for them. That's at the "below $20" oil time. He and Dinning have balanced the budget and paid the debt in record time. The money saved on debt servicing have been diverted to new infrastructure. They negotiated reasonable contracts with all public unions. They left huge savings in the Heritage Fund. They have set the province up to enjoy the economic boom.

The circle of life, we are back at where Getty left off.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Jacks

The circle of life, we are back at where Getty left off.

I disagree. We are much better off, fiscally, than we were during Getty's regime, even after the years of Stelmach and Redford. But, if we accept and extend your analogy: Notley is certainly no Klein.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

I disagree. We are much better off, fiscally, than we were during Getty's regime, even after the years of Stelmach and Redford. But, if we accept and extend your analogy: Notley is certainly no Klein.

I agree, for now. A few budget cycles with 5, 8 or 10+ billion dollar deficits will put us back there though and that is surely what we will see in the next few years.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nik-

Ok. They still handed over an insane amount of money to the government that then pissed it away. It's not the oil companies' fault.

If you give me a bunch of money, and I blow it, I shouldn't blame you and make you give me more. I should probably clean up my act.

This exact post could be applied to the argument about cutting public sector pay.

I'm not cheering the damage to Alberta's oil economy or anything as I've personally been impacted by it as well as many members of my family, but some of the chickens have come home to roost here.

Behind boom lurks a bust
'80s-style insanity makes a comeback

Don Martin
Calgary Herald

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

There's a residential demolition derby happening in Calgary's most prestigious community.

Dozens of houses have been blown up in ultra-posh Mount Royal. OK, houses is probably an understatement. More like mansions. And not just old run-of-the-mill mansions. At least one dream home was barely a decade old when it was rendered into rubble under new ownership earlier this year.

In the frantic pursuit of bigger and better lifestyles, the cream of Calgary is snapping up Mount Royal's prized inner-city addresses for millions per lot, tearing down perfectly outstanding dwellings and erecting their own customized palatial abodes. One businessman bought the house next door for seven figures and levelled it into grass so his kids would have space for playground equipment.

If there's a reflection of the insanity gripping Calgary's superheated economy, that's it.

A visit to Calgary these days is an eerie reflection of the early 1980s just before the economy collapsed with a devastating crash, collapsing real estate values and turning downtown office towers into "see-through buildings" abandoned by tenants.

That's when a notorious bumper sticker appeared on city streets: "Lord," it bemoaned, "please give me another boom and I promise I won't piss it away."

If they're not pissing it away yet, there are signs Calgary's collective bladder is getting mighty full. And I apologize for that analogy over breakfast.

Remind people about the sudden reversal of fortunes that tend to haunt one-industry towns and they make reassuring noises that the oilpatch is leaner and meaner than those giddy fat-cat days of the early '80s.

But my visit to Calgary last weekend was a head-spinning tour of a city roaring at a frantically unsustainable pace.

You see the first evidence from the air, where the brown smudge circling the city is filled with earthmovers levelling the surrounding prairie for 1,100 new homes per month to handle the 2.5 new Calgarians (including those in maternity wards) who arrive every hour on the 24/7 clock.

Four new office towers are under construction downtown, part of the $1.8-billion-in-new-construction boom started last year, an amount greater than the total of the next 10 Alberta cities combined.

Mayor Dave Bronconnier is bracing for an unprecedented $3 billion in new construction this year, which means another 300 kilometre lanes of road will be paved to feed traffic into the core.

It's even crazier at the provincial level, where energy royalties are threatening to drive the surplus to almost $10 billion.

I gave a lift to a senior member of the provincial bureaucracy on the weekend and asked what was next on the spending spree list, given Premier Ralph Klein had just announced a $1.4-billion hospital upgrade and construction program.

He shrugged: "We're almost running out of ideas."

[nik-]

Whose chickens?

I haven't calling for public sector pay reductions. Unfortunately for public sector employee, salary costs are often part of a government cleaning up its act.

And that article basically points to government excess during the gravy times.

Again, whose chickens?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nik-

Whose chickens?

I haven't calling for public sector pay reductions. Unfortunately for public sector employee, salary costs are often part of a government cleaning up its act.

And that article basically points to government excess during the gravy times.

Again, whose chickens?

The chickens who filled the PC coffers with money in exchange for a more generous business climate. They got their generous business environment and raked in the dough. What is currently happening is part of the byproduct of that friendly business environment.