[News] Upd: Drouin decides to sit out until trade is completed. Lightning suspend him.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

What team is going to take Carle straight up though? You're kind of dismissing the whole point of my post. Obviously Drouin > Porier, I'm not sure why that needs to be pointed out when I plainly said that taking Carle would be the PRICE for downgrading Drouin into Poirier. I'm just wondering how much Yzerman wants that contract gone. I even questioned if we would have to add.

Before this season, no one would call Poirier a B prospect, which was also referenced in my post. Maybe Yzerman thinks he can get back on track?

No I get it. I just think that offloading Carle's contract is a separate deal altogether, and wouldn't need to attach him to Drouin as it would diminish the value.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I like the idea but I don't think Carle's contract is that huge a problem for Tampa Bay. Enough to give up an elite prospect for a much lesser prospect. If that is what to takes to dump a contract, then we wouldn't like the price to trade any of our problems (Raymond, Smid, Engelland, Wideman, Stajan etc.).

Carle is much more expensive, signed for longer and is performing worse than any of the guys you mentioned here. Yzerman will need the cap space to sign Hedman, the triplets, Bishop, possibly Stamkos and others while Carle's contract is on the books. It would be a bold, risky move for BT even if he pulled it off, but it would really help Yzerman, especially if he likes Poirier.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

No I get it. I just think that offloading Carle's contract is a separate deal altogether, and wouldn't need to attach him to Drouin as it would diminish the value.

Fair enough, you're probably right, but I think Yzerman will still have to pay SOMETHING to facilitate that. He for sure won't be getting a Poirier back for his troubles. It would come down to the potential difference in value between both trades. He's going to have to find a pretty dumb GM to take Carle without attaching a mega sweetener to him.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Carle is much more expensive, signed for longer and is performing worse than any of the guys you mentioned here. Yzerman will need the cap space to sign Hedman, the triplets, Bishop, possibly Stamkos and others while Carle's contract is on the books. It would be a bold, risky move for BT even if he pulled it off, but it would really help Yzerman, especially if he likes Poirier.

I hear you. But offloading Drouin would be akin to Flames moving Bennett for a lesser prospect. So yeah Carle's situation is worse for sure, but its not in a different universe (one more year). I just don't think a salary dump is going to be worth that much to Yzerman.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

...I would argue the guy that is selling a highly prized asset (low supply, high demand) meets the definition of drivers seat anytime something is being bought and sold.

I'm late to this part of the discussion, but I wanted to add some clarity to this idea of "being in the driver's seat," which I do not believe Yzerman to be in his handling of Drouin.

It is true, there is no current urgency for him to trade Drouin, and that he will be entertaining multiple offers. But at the end of the day, this is a situation in which he is at the outset handicapped by the fact that everyone knows a lot about the circumstances behind Drouin's availability. This is likely to drive the price down, even among GMs who will be bidding against one another.

"In the driver's seat," in my opinion, means basically that one is entertaining offers to sell for over market value, and I do not believe that accurately describes Yzerman and Drouin. He will get a fine return, but almost certainly less than he would receive under different circumstances. In other words, Yzerman will not be able to maximise Drouin's value, which effectively means that he will have to take the best of a number of offers that he likely would not entertain under different conditions. If Yzerman is being victimised by mitigating factors which affect the value of his asset, then he most certainly is not "in the driver's seat." The market is. The market that is set by the bidders who all have a pretty good idea of what all the offers are going to look like.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

I still don't understand the concept of everyone knowing that Yzerman is going to trade Drouin, so he's going to get less than he would if no one knew. Can someone please explain it to me really slowly, like I'm 8 years old?

I would think that having all potential suitors aware would increase the value, as they could get bids in before the deal is made. If Drouin had an NTC, I could buy the argument, but really wouldn't other GMs find out Drouin is available anyway once Yzerman started worked the phones? It's 30 dudes we're talking about here, news would travel fast within the fraternity. Does it really matter to the negotiating process that all the fans and media know about this too?

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I still don't understand the concept of everyone knowing that Yzerman is going to trade Drouin, so he's going to get less than he would if no one knew. Can someone please explain it to me really slowly, like I'm 8 years old?

The idea is that if everyone knows that Drouin wants out, the value will be lower. Teams know that Yzerman probably has to trade him eventually, so in the end he'll just take the best offer.

Not sure if I buy it, especially since a player on his ELC doesn't exactly have a ton of leverage, but that's the reasoning.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I still don't understand the concept of everyone knowing that Yzerman is going to trade Drouin, so he's going to get less than he would if no one knew. Can someone please explain it to me really slowly, like I'm 8 years old?

I would think that having all potential suitors aware would increase the value, as they could get bids in before the deal is made. If Drouin had an NTC, I could buy the argument, but really wouldn't other GMs find out Drouin is available anyway once Yzerman started worked the phones? It's 30 dudes we're talking about here, news would travel fast within the fraternity. Does it really matter to the negotiating process that all the fans and media know about this too?

It's just the logic that as soon as everyone knows you are selling something the asking price will drop as compared to the price one would expect if another team was pursuing Drouin independently.

[CliffFletcher]

I could see a deal involving a team on the coast, with Shea Theodore or Timo Meier as the centrepiece.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Jose Theodore

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I'm late to this part of the discussion, but I wanted to add some clarity to this idea of "being in the driver's seat," which I do not believe Yzerman to be in his handling of Drouin.

It is true, there is no current urgency for him to trade Drouin, and that he will be entertaining multiple offers. But at the end of the day, this is a situation in which he is at the outset handicapped by the fact that everyone knows a lot about the circumstances behind Drouin's availability. This is likely to drive the price down, even among GMs who will be bidding against one another.

"In the driver's seat," in my opinion, means basically that one is entertaining offers to sell for over market value, and I do not believe that accurately describes Yzerman and Drouin. He will get a fine return, but almost certainly less than he would receive under different circumstances. In other words, Yzerman will not be able to maximise Drouin's value, which effectively means that he will have to take the best of a number of offers that he likely would not entertain under different conditions. If Yzerman is being victimised by mitigating factors which affect the value of his asset, then he most certainly is not "in the driver's seat." The market is. The market that is set by the bidders who all have a pretty good idea of what all the offers are going to look like.

Before the Johansen trade I would have agreed with you. But I also felt that Columbus had zero leverage in that situation, and were able to extract Seth Jones from David Poile.

Given this, and the demand by over a dozen teams inquiring on Drouin, I would very much characterize Yzerman being in the driver's seat. After all, he does not have to trade Drouin.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by codynw

The idea is that if everyone knows that Drouin wants out, the value will be lower. Teams know that Yzerman probably has to trade him eventually, so in the end he'll just take the best offer.

This is the part I don't get. The next sentence you wrote, I do get. My question is why/how does the first part affect the second part?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by DJones

It's just the logic that as soon as everyone knows you are selling something the asking price will drop as compared to the price one would expect if another team was pursuing Drouin independently.

More bidders = less value?

hmmmmm...

I don't buy it.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

More bidders = less value?

hmmmmm...

I don't buy it.

The logic is "highly touted prospect that has failed to live up to expectations publically requests trade" I don't see teams lining up with their top level prospect that has not requested a trade because things haven't gone according to plan. Drouin is Sven Baertschi or Kyle Turris all over again. Sven had the euro card so the Flames moved him quick and the trade request was public after the deal occurred. Turris was holding out but was signed dirt cheap and yet the Yotes got a mid first prospect and a 2nd rounder. If the Blues give up Fabri and a 2nd I will not be the least bit surprised

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

"In the driver's seat," in my opinion, means basically that one is entertaining offers to sell for over market value, and I do not believe that accurately describes Yzerman and Drouin.

Can you name 5 trades in recent history where this has appeared to be the case? My view is that Yzerman needs just one GM to overvalue Drouin and nothing else matters. The fact that he wants out should have no bearing on that potentially happening IMO. In fact, if all the GMs know the situation, it should increase the likelihood of this occurring.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Before the Johansen trade I would have agreed with you. But I also felt that Columbus had zero leverage in that situation, and were able to extract Seth Jones from David Poile.

I think the difference here is that Ryan Johanson is a tried and tested top line centre with size, and Drouin is most certainly not.

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Given this, and the demand by over a dozen teams inquiring on Drouin, I would very much characterize Yzerman being in the driver's seat. After all, he does not have to trade Drouin.

He doesn't have to today, but all signs point to a trade needing to take place before too long. The longer Drouin spends in the AHL, it is likely that his perceived value will continue to diminish. Under the current circumstances, it doesn't look like he will be rejoining the Lightening any time soon.

GMs are not going to be falling all over themselves with offers of their best assets in exchange for an AHL player with potential.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

The Turris situation seems to be close, although not identical (Drouin isn't holding out, but Turris showed flashes in the prior playoffs). However, I don't think Yzerman is thinking that would be a good return for Drouin. My guess is he wants a first and a top notch prospect (Theodore/Meier as CliffFletcher mentioned, type caliber).

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The longer Drouin spends in the AHL, it is likely that his perceived value will continue to diminish. Under the current circumstances, it doesn't look like he will be rejoining the Lightening any time soon.

Disagree. As long as he dominates in the AHL, his trade value will only increase. Going back to the Lightning is clearly not an option and won't influence trade talks. Obviously if Drouin struggles in the AHL, all bets are off.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by codynw

Fixed...

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Can you name 5 trades in recent history where this has appeared to be the case?

Why five? I can give you one. The most obvious comparable situation is Kyle Turris: a promising, highly drafted player with middling early returns in his first couple of seasons, who made his desire to be traded public, and who was sought after by numerous NHL teams. The return was not great.

Can you provide even one example of a comparable situation which has netted an exorbitant return as the product of a massive bidding war?

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

My view is that Yzerman needs just one GM to overvalue Drouin and nothing else matters. The fact that he wants out should have no bearing on that potentially happening IMO. In fact, if all the GMs know the situation, it should increase the likelihood of this occurring.

But what is it that that one GM is overvaluing? Is it a highly touted high end draft pick with big potential, or is it an NHL/AHL tweener who scored at less than a .5 pts/game pace in Tampa, and is currently on an AHL roster with 0 points in his two most recent games in Syracuse?

The return is not going to be big. Even if GMs are bidding against one another, they will be bidding for a boom/bust player that carries with him a lot of inherent risk.