What will make you consider this season a success for the Flames?

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

Hockey in May. Round 2 or better.

A lottery pick would be nice but the season should still be considered a fail.

I couldn't disagree more. A lottery pick wouldn't be a fail, it'd be really good for a few reasons. Not only would the team get a legit blue chip player, the young guys on the team would learn that they have to push even harder and that a slow start can kill you in this league.

This team is still fairly early in the rebuild, making the playoffs would be fooling everyone into thinking this team is good enough. Unless everyone steps up and plays to their highest potential, I think they'd get a beat down in the playoffs.

[Vinny01]

No doubt in my mind Management would consider a lottery pick a big fail. At the end of the day picking high in the draft likely would be good for the organization long term but Treliving put this team close to the cap to improve on last year not take a big step back.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I couldn't disagree more. A lottery pick wouldn't be a fail, it'd be really good for a few reasons. Not only would the team get a legit blue chip player, the young guys on the team would learn that they have to push even harder and that a slow start can kill you in this league.

This team is still fairly early in the rebuild, making the playoffs would be fooling everyone into thinking this team is good enough. Unless everyone steps up and plays to their highest potential, I think they'd get a beat down in the playoffs.

Some people say that the team is rebuilding and improving, and will therefore be a contender next year. I agree that making the playoffs might trick everyone into thinking the Flames will suddenly be contenders next year.

In reality, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Flames regress next year. They're going to lose Hudler, one of Russell or Wideman, and a goalie by next season. I find it hard to believe that the Flames will take a large step forward. People are really relying on the progression of the young guys, but they seem to discount the probable regression of anyone on the wrong side of 28.

I think that real improvement will come once the Engelland, Stajan, Raymond, Smid, etc. contracts end. At this point, we are really relying on Gillies to progress as well.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

No doubt in my mind Management would consider a lottery pick a big fail. At the end of the day picking high in the draft likely would be good for the organization long term but Treliving put this team close to the cap to improve on last year not take a big step back.

Certainly that's what they would say to fans and media but the reality is that they much like fans know that missing the playoffs and picking outside of the top 10 is the ultimate failure as it's a complete waste of a season.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Some people say that the team is rebuilding and improving, and will therefore be a contender next year. I agree that making the playoffs might trick everyone into thinking the Flames will suddenly be contenders next year.

In reality, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Flames regress next year. They're going to lose Hudler, one of Russell or Wideman, and a goalie by next season. I find it hard to believe that the Flames will take a large step forward. People are really relying on the progression of the young guys, but they seem to discount the probable regression of anyone on the wrong side of 28.

I think that real improvement will come once the Engelland, Stajan, Raymond, Smid, etc. contracts end. At this point, we are really relying on Gillies to progress as well.

regression of older guys? Outside of Gio who is over 28 and a major part of this team? People see progression in our key players as Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Hamilton, Brodie are all still very young and getting better. Older guys like Stajan, Engellend, etc don't play a big enough role for the whole team to regress. If they can't afford a replacement for Hudler then the team is in a tough spot because they already lack top 6 forwards.

Treliving hopefully moves some bad money this summer but easier said than done

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

regression of older guys? Outside of Gio who is over 28 and a major part of this team? People see progression in our key players as Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Hamilton, Brodie are all still very young and getting better. Older guys like Stajan, Engellend, etc don't play a big enough role for the whole team to regress. If they can't afford a replacement for Hudler then the team is in a tough spot because they already lack top 6 forwards.

Treliving hopefully moves some bad money this summer but easier said than done

I think you nailed it here...those guys already don't play big roles on the team. To me that means that they aren't really that important, sure they're good guys to have on the team but you can't really rely on them for much. More successful teams are getting contributions from all their lines and our bottom players aren't doing much and are likely going to do less moving forward. This team is lacking talent and it's plain to see, as bad as Hudler has been this season, the team seems worse without him. If we don't get a top 6 skilled forward for next season, I think times will be tough.

As for this season though, I still think making the playoffs wouldn't shouldn't be the ultimate goal...I don't think they should tank and get a pick though just to be clear. The goal of this team should be growth. It'd be a success for our players to improve and trend in the right direction, Johnny being Johnny is almost making this season a success by himself. As the team improves and more options present themselves, the team will get better. I just don't think the success of the season hinges on making the playoffs.

If they win the cup it's a success
If they make it deep, it's a success
Getting eliminated early in the playoffs wouldn't be a success IMO
Key players on the team improving would be a success
Getting rid of certain contracts on the roster would be a success
Getting a high pick while younger players improve would be a success
Not making the playoffs and getting a mid pick would be failure IMO

[Vinny01]

I am of the opinion they treat the deadline as sellers. Russell, Jones, Hudler all gone. The only UFA I am okay with them keeping is Ramo. If they move the 3 above players and bring up a couple of young guys on the farm (prefer a 21 year old Porier to a 26 year old Grant) and still push for a playoff spot.

Trelivng can pursue hockey trades at the deadline as well but the key is getting picks and assets that can make them a player at the draft again. As of today this is a great UFA class that the Flames can't take part in because of bad money on the books. Hopefully they can get themselves out as a lot of that money is only tied up for one more season

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Certainly that's what they would say to fans and media but the reality is that they much like fans know that missing the playoffs and picking outside of the top 10 is the ultimate failure as it's a complete waste of a season.

Complete waste of a season?

Far more important than what number they draft at in June are things like: development of the players and prospects that are already in the system, salary and cap management, etc.

Saying that a season is a complete waste because they pick 10-12th is a pretty big slap in the face to the 50 or so guys on the team, no?

[Poe969]

Player development has to be the most important, they're always going to want that to happen. But I agree with EE that I think management would probably prefer to pick top 5 instead of 12-15. How frustrating was it for those years when we had Iggy and Kipper carrying the team but they weren't good enough to make the playoffs (or they'd get bounced quickly) and not bad enough to get a good pick.

And it's frustrating that when you want the team to get a good pick, people keep saying "you must like the oilers mentality" or that it must mean you're cheering for losses. I want the team to hit their stride and start to dominate but I don't think they are and since I don't think they'll be a contender this year, I think a top 3 pick would help them more than we can imagine. I think if they got one of the big Finns in this draft, they'd be a contender in 2-3 years.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Complete waste of a season?

Far more important than what number they draft at in June are things like: development of the players and prospects that are already in the system, salary and cap management, etc.

Saying that a season is a complete waste because they pick 10-12th is a pretty big slap in the face to the 50 or so guys on the team, no?

Maybe waste of a season is a little overboard in that you can point to continued development by younger players but guys like Giordano and Wideman aren't getting any younger and there will be more question marks at the goaltender position at the end of the season than the beginning. This team needs top wingers in a bad way and the only way to properly address that is via trade (very difficult) or via draft and getting a high pick makes the odds much better at finding those players. No teams want to finish 12-15 as it's no-man's land and of all fans Flames fans should know this with Iginla's last years of hanging on trying to make the playoffs and finishing just outside. That got us Tim Erixon, (pick traded), Sven Baertschi, Mark Jankowski vs picking top 10 and getting Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett. Pretty easy to see the major difference between drafting inside and outside the top 10 when it comes to finding top line talent. The verdict is out on Jankowski but the Flames have little to show for the other picks.

I don't see why it would be a slap in the face of the players as they collectively make millions of dollars regardless.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

regression of older guys? Outside of Gio who is over 28 and a major part of this team? People see progression in our key players as Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Hamilton, Brodie are all still very young and getting better. Older guys like Stajan, Engellend, etc don't play a big enough role for the whole team to regress. If they can't afford a replacement for Hudler then the team is in a tough spot because they already lack top 6 forwards.

Treliving hopefully moves some bad money this summer but easier said than done

Upfront, the older guys don't have a big impact. But the Flames have already seen huge regression from Hiller this year. Wideman and Gio often play big minutes. Same goes for Hudler.

So basically all of Hudler, Jones, Stajan, Ramond, Hiller, Ramo, Wideman, Russell, Engelland, Smid and maybe Frolik and Bollig are likely to regress or leave entirely. And we probably won't have the cap space to sign anyone good/new this season.

I'm just worried that the progression of Bennett, Gaudreau, Monahan, Ferland, Granlund, Bouma, Hamilton and Brodie cannot outweigh all of that subtraction/regression.

The Flames will actually have the capspace to sign people in the summer of 2017. IMO that's when they will actually improve.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Maybe waste of a season is a little overboard in that you can point to continued development by younger players but guys like Giordano and Wideman aren't getting any younger and there will be more question marks at the goaltender position at the end of the season than the beginning. This team needs top wingers in a bad way and the only way to properly address that is via trade (very difficult) or via draft and getting a high pick makes the odds much better at finding those players. No teams want to finish 12-15 as it's no-man's land and of all fans Flames fans should know this with Iginla's last years of hanging on trying to make the playoffs and finishing just outside. That got us Tim Erixon, (pick traded), Sven Baertschi, Mark Jankowski vs picking top 10 and getting Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett. Pretty easy to see the major difference between drafting inside and outside the top 10 when it comes to finding top line talent. The verdict is out on Jankowski but the Flames have little to show for the other picks.

I don't see why it would be a slap in the face of the players as they collectively make millions of dollars regardless.

The thing is though, the Flames have already drafted and identified their young long term core (Gaudreau, Monny, Hamilton, Brodie and Bennett). When Iggy was hanging around those last few years and finishing just outside of the playoffs, there was no young core just a collection of vets, some young grinders and two superstars. Totally different situations.

Even if the Flames just miss the playoffs this season, the young core will continue to develop.

[Poe969]

The young core will develop and improve but without another high end forward, our core won't improve. The team is still missing a top line RW, as you can tell by just about everyone on the team getting a chance there. Frolik will be a really good second line guy but the Flames need a big strong, smart, skilled forward to round out our top 2 lines.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Upfront, the older guys don't have a big impact. But the Flames have already seen huge regression from Hiller this year. Wideman and Gio often play big minutes. Same goes for Hudler.

So basically all of Hudler, Jones, Stajan, Ramond, Hiller, Ramo, Wideman, Russell, Engelland, Smid and maybe Frolik and Bollig are likely to regress or leave entirely. And we probably won't have the cap space to sign anyone good/new this season.

I'm just worried that the progression of Bennett, Gaudreau, Monahan, Ferland, Granlund, Bouma, Hamilton and Brodie cannot outweigh all of that subtraction/regression.

The Flames will actually have the capspace to sign people in the summer of 2017. IMO that's when they will actually improve.

When did 28 become the 'too old' age? Frolik is 27 now and will be 28 at the start of next season, and you're already predicting that he will be regressing?

Many, many players have great seasons as 28 to 32 year olds. After 32 it starts to get a lot sketchier, but defensemen in particular can still be in their primes at that age. That's not even mentioning goalies, who often have their best years in their early 30s.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

When did 28 become the 'too old' age? Frolik is 27 now and will be 28 at the start of next season, and you're already predicting that he will be regressing?

Many, many players have great seasons as 28 to 32 year olds. After 32 it starts to get a lot sketchier, but defensemen in particular can still be in their primes at that age. That's not even mentioning goalies, who often have their best years in their early 30s.

Depends on what you mean by regressing, but I don't he gets better

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Depends on what you mean by regressing, but I don't he gets better

Yes. This is peak Frolik. Different systems might make him a bigger contributor. But he won't be better physically.

I think the Flames can be sellers and also be in the POs.

[Demetric]

improved corsi

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Depends on what you mean by regressing, but I don't he gets better

Well, regressing doesn't mean 'not getting better'. Regressing means getting worse.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

When did 28 become the 'too old' age? Frolik is 27 now and will be 28 at the start of next season, and you're already predicting that he will be regressing?

Many, many players have great seasons as 28 to 32 year olds. After 32 it starts to get a lot sketchier, but defensemen in particular can still be in their primes at that age. That's not even mentioning goalies, who often have their best years in their early 30s.

23 is too old. The Monahan/Gaudreau window is rapidly closing.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Player development has to be the most important, they're always going to want that to happen. But I agree with EE that I think management would probably prefer to pick top 5 instead of 12-15. How frustrating was it for those years when we had Iggy and Kipper carrying the team but they weren't good enough to make the playoffs (or they'd get bounced quickly) and not bad enough to get a good pick.

It was frustrating in the short term. Though in retrospect many of the game-breakers from a lot of those drafts - Erik Karlsson, TJ Brodie, Jamie Benn, John Klingberg, Taranseko, Mark Stone, Filip Forsberg, Johnny Gaudreau, Dylan Larkin - were not top 10 picks. Most drafts can't be judged til 4-5 years out so judging a draft before it's occured is crazy. I want Laine/Puljujarvi/Matthews/Chychrun. But if not, I'm just satisfied as long as the Oilers don't get their grubby mitts on them.