Rube's 2015 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[Frequitude]

Haha, no worries. I went 10-6 and widened my lead atop the pool!

[GirlySports]

for you Rube

Special college edition

Clemson +3.5
Alabama -10

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

for you Rube

Special college edition

Clemson +3.5
Alabama -10

Already took Clemson at +560 to win the NC, and took Michigan State +10 for tonight.

[rubecube]

So I guess I hedge Alabama moneyline now, right?

[rubecube]

Yep, I'm seeing the early line is Alabama -250. So right now if Clemson wins I make $280 off my $50 bet. If I hedge and Clemson wins, I make $155. If I hedge and they lose I break even. If I don't hedge and they lose, I lose $50. So yeah, time to hedge. Going to wait to see if the ML changes at all before the game though.

[Frequitude]

Pocket the win for sure. Nice Clemson bet.

So how about NFL picks for tomorrow?! If I end up winning this pool I'm donating $50 to CP in your and sylvanfan's names.

[rubecube]

Well I went on three-day bender last weekend and completely slept through Sunday, so I'm back after a week-long hiatus.

NO +5.5
ARI -6.5
BUF +3
JAX +6.5
CLE +11
NYG -5.5
GB -3
SF +3.5

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Pocket the win for sure. Nice Clemson bet.

So how about NFL picks for tomorrow?! If I end up winning this pool I'm donating $50 to CP in your and sylvanfan's names.

Rube deserves the credit here. Use my half and try to grow it to enough to buy a decent steak. Week 17 is a tough one for sure. Heres a few games I'll pick.

I like Oakland to cover against KC. Raiders will be inspired for Woodsons last game. KC just wants to get to next week with some healthy bodies. Oakland has a few individuals chasing goals and finishing 8-8 will be a huge deal for them.

Green Bay to cover against Minnesota. I think the Packers bounce back big again vs the Vikings.

Baltimore to cover aginst the Bengals. Baltimore has a lot of pride still and Cincinatti is pretty much locked in to the 3 spot. I think 9.5 points is a lot here given that Harbaugh is going nowhere and guys are fighting for jobs next year I think the Ravens will play hard.

Denver to cover against the Chargers. San Diego really have no one left, and I suspect the vets cant be too thrilled with the Weddle situation. Denver has something to play for but wont be choked by must win pressure.

Pittsburgh should cover against the Browns. Ill go against Rube here. They laid an egg last week and Clevelands players know the coach is gone on Monday. Without Manziel to run round I dont see Clevelands offence doing anything.

St.Louis should cover 3.5 points against the 49ers. St.Louis started playing better once the games meant nothing. I think San Fran is another team who expect the coach gone on Monday.

Tenneessee should cover against Indy because the Colts are starting a QB off the street. Colts likely still win but by a score of 4-3 thanks to two safety's.

Arizona to cover 6.5 against Seattle. I think Arians and the Cards want to make a statement and ensure that Seattle is not playing Washington next week.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I like Oakland to cover against KC. Raiders will be inspired for Woodsons last game. KC just wants to get to next week with some healthy bodies. Oakland has a few individuals chasing goals and finishing 8-8 will be a huge deal for them.

Pittsburgh should cover against the Browns. Ill go against Rube here. They laid an egg last week and Clevelands players know the coach is gone on Monday. Without Manziel to run round I dont see Clevelands offence doing anything.

Tenneessee should cover against Indy because the Colts are starting a QB off the street. Colts likely still win but by a score of 4-3 thanks to two safety's.

Just wanted to add that I agree with Syl on these ones even though I picked the Browns. I had a complete brainfart and forgot they benched Manziel.

[Frequitude]

Should I change my Buf +3 pick now that McCoy is out today?

[Sylvanfan]

Shady wasnt doing anything Karlos Williams wasn't. Weather in Buffalo could be nasty today. If the Jets lose their passing game I dont know if they put up many points.Division game with must win pressure against the former coach.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Should I change my Buf +3 pick now that McCoy is out today?

I'm not on strong on the Buffalo pick anyways. Jets technically have more to play for, but I could Ryan wanting to stick it to his old team. Really a coin flip, so take the Jets if you feel a bit more partial to them.

[Frequitude]

Great picks today, boys.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Great picks today, boys.

Yeah that didn't go well. Sorry, man.

[Frequitude]

I was being serious. I went 10-5! Accidentally picked Pittsburgh instead of Cleveland which helped. The SF pick was huge. Everyone else in the chase went StL.

[Da_Chief]

Just put down $50 each on Steeler/Seahawks/Packers/Cardinals. Any one of them winning breaks me even + $150-$400 in winnings.

[rubecube]

Well that's the season. Went 6-9-1 over the final two weeks I bet (with me having skipped week 16), bringing my overall record to 77-58-4. Overall that works out to a .570 (57%) winning percentage, which is considered profitable. Most professional gamblers are in the 53-55% range, so I'm happy with my numbers this year. I'll probably keep betting during the playoffs when I see value, but won't be as religiously.

[Frequitude]

Nicely done rube. Do go too far. I'll need some help once yahoo's lines come out. I've luckboxed my way to a 60% winning percentage this year on every game. Insane variance.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Just put down $50 each on Steeler/Seahawks/Packers/Cardinals. Any one of them winning breaks me even + $150-$400 in winnings.

Yeah, I think a buddy and I are going to do the same thing but go with Chiefs/Steelers/Seahawks/Cards.

[rubecube]

Gambling is so weird sometimes.

Odds to win Super Bowl

Carolina +407
Arizona +393

Odds to win NFC

Carolina +175
Arizona +179