12-05-2015, 12:53 PM
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#81
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Oakland +2.5 at home to KC and Washington -4.5 stand out to me as favorable bets for this week.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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12-06-2015, 10:26 AM
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#82
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 555 Saddledome Rise SE
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Thanks gents.
A couple notable changes on Yahoo's lines:
Tampa is -2...still take them?
Pittsburgh is -10...still take them?
My picks on the other games:
Baltimore +4 vs Miami
Seattle ML @ Minnesota
NYG +2 vs NYJ
Thoughts?
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12-06-2015, 02:06 PM
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#83
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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I liked the Giants, Seahawks, Ravens for what it's worth.
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12-11-2015, 12:08 PM
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#84
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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7-3 last week and now 65-44-3 for the year, inching closer to that 60% mark.
PIT ML
BUF +1
CHI -3.5
NO +4.5
NE -3.5
DEN -7
GB -6.5
SD +10.5
SF ML
CAR -7.5
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12-14-2015, 06:03 PM
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#85
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 555 Saddledome Rise SE
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Went 9-5 yesterday and opened up a 5 game lead in my pool. Thanks rube. I've picked NYG -1.5 tonight.
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12-14-2015, 08:36 PM
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#86
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Not related to the NFL, but I bet $50 on Clemson to win the college national championship. Most of the advanced analytics I've seen has them at 33% chance to win and the odds were basically 6-1 so that's an easy decision to make.
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12-18-2015, 11:00 AM
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#87
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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6-4 last week brings me to 71-48-3 for the year. I'm not super confident about my picks this week and probably should've stayed away from a few of these games, but here we are.
Also my futures bet of the week is Pittsburgh +1110 to win the Super Bowl, though I also like Seattle at 8 to 1.
NYJ -3.5
JAX -3
WAS ML
KC -7
NYG +4
OAK +3
PHI +3.5
DET +2.5
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12-19-2015, 10:05 AM
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#88
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Out of those picks the two that I'd question you on are:
Giants +4 against the Panthers. Giants are at home, and Eli was on point last week, but Carolina looked really good against Atlanta. The Giants defence is pretty suspect, and if Norman can neutralize OBJ, I don't think the rest of the Giants weapons do much to scare anyone.
Raiders to cover 3 points against Green Bay would have me leery too. Raiders are a team that seems to struggle with success and that win over Denver last week may skew how they had been playing lately. With McCarthy back in charge of calling plays, I think Green Bay is going to score more than they have been. Again, more feeling based than fact.
The odds on Pittsburgh for the Superbowl look pretty good. To me their biggest hurdle is going to be making the playoffs. But I don't think both the Jets and Chiefs will win out. One of those teams will screw up and lose a game. Once the Steelers get into the playoff picture, I think those odds will come down.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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12-19-2015, 04:23 PM
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#89
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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The Giants were mostly a contrarian pick because I think everyone is going to be on the Panthers and Vegas still hasn't bumped up the line. With the Raiders I actually almost bet the money line.
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12-23-2015, 10:53 AM
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#90
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 555 Saddledome Rise SE
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Well I'm holding on to a 4 point lead thanks to you boys. The Giants miracle comeback was huge. Totally differentiated me from those close behind.
Right now I've got Oak -5 vs SD for tomorrow. Thoughts?
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12-23-2015, 12:48 PM
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#91
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frequitude
Well I'm holding on to a 4 point lead thanks to you boys. The Giants miracle comeback was huge. Totally differentiated me from those close behind.
Right now I've got Oak -5 vs SD for tomorrow. Thoughts?
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When I was trying to handicap that one myself, I was thinking Oakland would be a 5 point favorite.
San Diego is coming off a big emotional win last week, travelling to play a Christmas eve game on a short week that means nothing to them. They can't run the ball and Kalil Mack should be able to tee off on Rivers. The Raiders were destroying the Chargers in the last meeting until they took their foot off the gas. This is also Charles Woodson's last home game so I think they might also have a bit of incentive there.
The only thing I see working for San Diego is that they are currently 0-4 in the Division, and for a QB like Rivers to lose all 6 Division games against teams he knows this well seems like an oddity to me. So if he loses next week he'd have to beat the Bronco's to avoid that. Plus Rivers has a tendency to back door cover anytime I bet the Chargers opponent to cover by scoring 14 points in the last 5 minutes when they were down 20 type of thing.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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12-23-2015, 12:50 PM
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#92
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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It's a Thursday night game, so I would flip a coin. If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably take the Chargers.
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12-23-2015, 04:29 PM
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#93
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Fearmongerer
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Wondering when # became hashtag and not a number sign.
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So you think you know the NFL?
Quote:
One of the biggest long shots in betting history will be cashed on Wednesday afternoon when Tayla Polia gets paid $100,005 for her $5, 15-leg NFL parlay that came through this week.
The 26-year-old Polia, who moved to Las Vegas two months ago, got 20,000-to-1 odds on the parlay card on betting firm William Hill's mobile site. She cashed in by being on the right side of the point spread in 14 games and correctly picking the over in the Steelers-Broncos game.
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I am the first to admit I have no idea anymore about betting the NFL. So I stopped other than playing sport select pools for 5 bucks every week. This astounds me as it was her second bet....in her life.
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/...ng-shot-parlay
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12-23-2015, 04:41 PM
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#94
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
So you think you know the NFL?
I am the first to admit I have no idea anymore about betting the NFL. So I stopped other than playing sport select pools for 5 bucks every week. This astounds me as it was her second bet....in her life.
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/...ng-shot-parlay |
Eh, it's not the first time and won't be the last that someone gets lucky.
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12-27-2015, 09:32 AM
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#95
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 555 Saddledome Rise SE
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Rube, brother. What are we thinking for today?!
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12-27-2015, 10:29 AM
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#96
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Cleveland should cover against KC. Hali is out so two backup pass rushers on a sloppy track needing to cover 12 points.
St.Louis also has a lot of points against a team they always play tough.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
Last edited by Sylvanfan; 12-27-2015 at 10:56 AM.
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12-27-2015, 03:02 PM
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#97
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 555 Saddledome Rise SE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan
Cleveland should cover against KC. Hali is out so two backup pass rushers on a sloppy track needing to cover 12 points.
St.Louis also has a lot of points against a team they always play tough.
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Great call on the Browns! Differentiated myself nicely from the field with that one.
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12-27-2015, 03:08 PM
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#98
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 555 Saddledome Rise SE
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For the remaining games I've got Minnesota -6 vs NYG and Denver -3.5 vs Cincinatti. Thoughts?
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12-27-2015, 03:42 PM
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#99
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frequitude
For the remaining games I've got Minnesota -6 vs NYG and Denver -3.5 vs Cincinatti. Thoughts?
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Well I'm no expert but 6 points for Minnesota is a pretty big number. Giants have nothing to play for and are without OBJ. Their defence is also suspect so AP should be able to run. Forecast is for a cold night. I personally think the Giants will cover. But truthfully I'm not confident enough in that to wager on it myself.
Similar with Cincinatti and Denver. Not too confident either way, but Denver D at home against an inexperienced ed QB seems alright. I'd like that pick a lot more st 2.5 points.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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12-28-2015, 07:50 PM
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#100
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Sorry, guys. Had a little too much holiday cheer this weekend.
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