MLB 2015 Season

[Senator Clay Davis]

So it's 6 years and $206.5 million, $34.4 million a season. Christ I should have learned how to pitch.

[Jordan!]

Yesssssssssssssssss. Also what the fata!.

[troutman]

I heard the D-Backs entire payroll was around $88 M last year, and now they are paying one person $34 M.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...tion/?team=ARI

http://deadspin.com/2015-payrolls-an...eam-1695040045

The Dodgers payroll was 4X the Marlins.

[ClubFlames]

Aroldis Chapman to the Dodgers.

[ClubFlames]

Couple of big deals happened:

Cubs signed Zobrist to a 4 year deal and then traded Starlin Castro to the Yankees for Andrew Warren and a player to be named later.

Diamondbacks continue to load up on pitching, trading for Shelby Miller but they paid a massive price by giving up Dansby Swanson (1st overall pick in '15), Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair. MLB executives are calling the one of the worst trades they have seen and hugely its in favor of the Braves.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Is Arizona's owner dying or something? Clearly going all in the win right now, the Miller trade is abysmal.

[Harry Lime]

Angels are shopping CJ Wilson for cap relief. They are looking to eat 10M of the 20M salary, but teams are asking that they eat 15M. He has one year left.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by ClubFlames

Couple of big deals happened:

Cubs signed Zobrist to a 4 year deal and then traded Starlin Castro to the Yankees for Andrew Warren and a player to be named later.

Diamondbacks continue to load up on pitching, trading for Shelby Miller but they paid a massive price by giving up Dansby Swanson (1st overall pick in '15), Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair. MLB executives are calling the one of the worst trades they have seen and hugely its in favor of the Braves.

Arizona should honestly stop taking calls, emails, and text messages from Atlanta. Since the Justin Upton trade in January 2013 the Braves have pretty much fleeced them badly in 3 of the 4 deals they have done.

[VERVE]

The Papelbon saga continues. All is not forgiven or lesson learned:

"Washington Nationals closer Jonathan Papelbon has filed a grievance against the team for failing to pay his salary during his team-imposed four-game suspension last season, according to multiple reports.

The Nationals suspended Papelbon for the season’s final four games after he put his hand around Bryce Harper’s neck in a confrontation during a loss to the Phillies on Sept. 27. According to the The Washington Post, Papelbon’s main argument in the grievance “is that there is no precedent for a team-issued suspension over such an incident.” "

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/07/nat...rper-grievance#

Papelbon strange lesson learnt from the incident vs Harper:

" "My mistake was doing that in the dugout in front of a camera,” Papelbon said. “I’ve got two young kids. They know that’s not right, but it happens. I fully apologize for doing that but most of it’s handled in the tunnel. [Harper is] a competitor, too.” " http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/12/07/...king-incident/

Great closer but his attitude would leave a lot to be desired.

[troutman]

http://www.sfgate.com/giants/article...er-6687122.php

Jeff Samardzija, whose five-year, $90 million contract became official Wednesday when the Giants announced he passed his physical, will join Madison Bumgarner atop the rotation, and Sabean said the push is for a third “bona fide starter -- because it’s an arms race” and a solid threesome is advantageous entering the postseason.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Jason Heyward is a solid player and all, but 8 years and $23.5 million per shows how stupid money in baseball is getting. Andrew McCutchen has to be pretty psyched, he's gotta be worth an ARod 10 year, $300 million deal if Heyward is worth that. Craziest thing is apparently the Nationals were offering $200 million for him.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Jason Heyward is a solid player and all, but 8 years and $23.5 million per shows how stupid money in baseball is getting. Andrew McCutchen has to be pretty psyched, he's gotta be worth an ARod 10 year, $300 million deal if Heyward is worth that.

Here are the important numbers... 26 & 32. 26 is the age of Jason Heyward and 32 is the Age that Andrew McCutchen will be when he hits free agency. 26... Hardly anyone worth anything ever enters free agency at that young of an age anymore. Certainly not someone as well rounded and as valuable as Heyward has been.

That is a steal of a deal for the Cubs (considering the baseball economy ATM).

[Jason14h]

That is a steal of a deal for the Cubs (considering the baseball economy ATM)

Steal of a deal? It's paying a lot of money for someone who is amazing at D and pretty good at everything else.

It is interesting that this is one of the first guys to get paid big based on new defensive metrics. I certainly wouldn't call it a steal of a deal though!

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Steal of a deal? It's paying a lot of money for someone who is amazing at D and pretty good at everything else.

Exactly.

How many players are there that are amazing at D and pretty good at everything else? or amazing at 1 aspect of baseball and pretty good at all the others? How many of them are free agents this year? How many of them become available at age 26 (where they may not even have peaked yet and have many prime years remaining).

The vast vast vast majority of players have some part of the game that's a weakness, Heyward has none. Sure most of his tools aren't loud (If they were he'd be Mike Trout and he'd get a hell of a lot more money then he did) but he's good (albeit not great) at everything. I also think he'll age well since any single tool declining doesn't overly hurt him since he's good at everything.

And in terms of the baseball economy it's not even all that much. 1 win above replacement is basically valued at $8,000,000.00 on the open market so even if you assume that doesn't change (and it's highly likely to actually go up) all Heyward has to do is be worth 3 wins above replacement per year in order to be "worth it" and Heyward has been well above that in all his MLB seasons except 1.

[Qwerty]

1 win above replacement is basically valued at $8,000,000.00 on the open market

Where did you come up with this number. No FA has approached this valuation. They usually talk about 3-4 mil per WAR per season

[Chump]

Originally Posted by Qwerty

Where did you come up with this number. No FA has approached this valuation. They usually talk about 3-4 mil per WAR per season

Fangraphs had one win valued at around 6 million last off season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-c...14-off-season/

[Jason14h]

Well here are the Notable/Top FA's Contracts this year

Grienke: 9.3 WAR - 34 mil = 3.7 mil/WAR
Price: 6.0 WAR - 31 mil = 5 mil /WAR
Heyward: 6.5 WAR - 24 = 3.7 mil/WAR
Lackey: 5.6 WAR - 16 mil = 2.9 mil/ WAR
Zimmerman : 3.4 WAR - 22 Mil = 6.5 mil/WAR
Zobrist : 2.1 WAR - 16 mil = 8 mil/WAR

I left out Samardzija as last season was terrible.

So while Heywards deal is comparable to the $/WAR of the top players, it does seem better to pay him then some of the older players!

Using an average WAR/$ isn't indicative of how teams actually sign FA's, as lots of 1 and 2 WAR players get paid for bounceback potential and skew the average.

Top players are making ~4mil-5mil /WAR (This lines up on almost every big contract including trout)

Again, really interesting to see a player get paid for his defensive WAR for the first time really.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Chump

Fangraphs had one win valued at around 6 million last off season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-c...14-off-season/

Dave Cameron estimates it to be 8 this year. Source: Fangraphs audio.

[Jason14h]

Dave Cameron estimates it to be 8 this year.

Sure but it doesn't even come close to scaling at higher WAR's/Salaries

A ton of MR worth 0 WAR get 5 mil. No player is getting anywhere close to 50 million for a 6 WAR. The highest paid player in the majors is Grienke now at 34 million. That would mean he is getting paid at a is 4 WAR value...

There were over 40 players last year to generate a WAR over 4.

Using 8 as a multiplier for stars is beyond crazy.

[Senator Clay Davis]

So after signing Samardzija, Giants add to it with Cueto for 6 years and $130 million. NL West is gonna be a bloodbath between Arizona, SF and LAD.