I'm calling it now, The Flames will be dancing this spring

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'm not sure why EDM always has much better odds than CGY here, when they have the same record. Maybe the bad goal differential?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

I think it is strength of schedule. At the top left you can click on 50/50 and then the Flames/Oilers are almost even. 50/50 mode makes every game a coin flip, and weighted takes into account strength of schedule.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'm not sure why EDM always has much better odds than CGY here, when they have the same record. Maybe the bad goal differential?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

Seems pretty obvious to me. We have the exact same record in the last 10 games as the Oilers, but they've done it while missing their best player (who will be back eventually), and they have more points, more GF and less GA.

For those saying that "we're just x points out of a playoff spot", that's just not how it works. It's not nearly enough to be better than Vancouver. We also have to be better than 4 other teams between us and Vancouver, and all those teams have more points than us, and thus with a sample size of about 1/3 of the season they are all slightly better teams than us.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by heep223

You said it. Tons of comparisons to Colorado, who had Vezina caliber goaltending.

Lol

Calgary's 2014-2015 season was carried by vezina level goaltending....said no one ever.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Lol

Calgary's 2014-2015 season was carried by vezina level goaltending....said no one ever.

Actually, that's exactly what the Stats For Dummies crowd were saying, though they didn't say it in such plain words as to make their stupidity obvious. They compared Calgary to Colorado because both teams had, quote, ‘unsustainable PDO’. Yes, both teams had abnormally high numbers in the PDO pseudo-stat, but that was the only resemblance between them. Yet a consistent group of stats dorks kept pointing to PDO as if that were all the proof they needed that the two cases were comparable.

[Geeoff]

I used to crank the PDO back in the day when my parents just didn't understand me. "We are we are! Youth of the nation!"

[Flamenfame]

No team in nhl history has allowed the most goals against and made the playoffs not even close , and we are still getting scored on regulary despite recent wins . Chances are very slim .

[Erick Estrada]

IMO the Flames will still be picking top 5 in June. Historically bad special teams and goaltenders that are so bad that 4 goals for is the minimum requirement to get a win is a recipe for a high lottery pick. This winning streak at home is largely based on opportunistic goals as the rest of their game is still horrible.

[CroFlames]

Consecutive negative Nancy posts after a 4 game win streak. Some people I tell ya

[Vinny01]

The Flames D zone has improved as of late and getting Bouma back will be big for the PK. Goaltending is still a huge issue that I hope Treliving addresses as I don't see Ramo and Hiller getting this team the saves they need. This team got off to a horrible start and are turning it around but still have a ways to go. The Pacific division is just so bad though they have a legit shot

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'm not sure why EDM always has much better odds than CGY here, when they have the same record. Maybe the bad goal differential?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

For the weighted method, all sportsclubstats takes into account is the records of the teams for the games it's simulating. So the increased odds for Edmonton would be entirely based on a relatively easier remaining schedule as compared to the Flames. Our odds will improve as we win more games, and as the Oilers lose more games than the weighted simulation accounted for, as it cannot factor in the "no good" qualifier.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Flamenfame

No team in nhl history has allowed the most goals against and made the playoffs not even close , and we are still getting scored on regulary despite recent wins . Chances are very slim .

As I mentioned the other three times, I found two instances in the 80's that says that your point is simply not true. and a third where the team finished second last in gaa. I'm pretty sure that there will be more if i cared enough to go post 72 expansion to 1980

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The Flames D zone has improved as of late and getting Bouma back will be big for the PK. Goaltending is still a huge issue that I hope Treliving addresses as I don't see Ramo and Hiller getting this team the saves they need. This team got off to a horrible start and are turning it around but still have a ways to go. The Pacific division is just so bad though they have a legit shot

Right now, I'm concerned more about special teams. The penalty kill is literally adding a goal per game to our defensive stats, and our power play. I believe this team is 6th in the league in even strength scoring, but the pp is atrocious.

I'm also more concerned with winning on the road. If this Flames team is starting to become more real it has to win on the road.

The teams above us in the pacific with the exception of the Kings are all playing poorly and worse then the Flames.

Right now, I'm not looking at the Wild Card spots, I'm looking at 2nd or 3rd in the division.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

I don't think any team has made the playoffs with the worst PK or worse PP in the league. Let alone both..

FIX IT HARTLEY!! Fire Gelinas if he's not working out. There is no excuse to have the worst PP in the league with the skill we have both at forward and on defense.

[polak]

While I agree with the notion that we're still not looking good to make the playoffs, I'm still really happy with how the team is playing and it's looking more and more like the Flames of last year. If they can regain their form and play like this for the rest of the season then we do have a real shot. It's just too early to say that they're there. They need to keep this up throughout January, then I'll start thinking they're for real.

3 points out means nothing. We're still in a tough position to make the playoffs. We have to be better than 4 teams (including the Oilers since their neck and neck and McDavid will help them), 3 of which who have been genuinely better than us for the entire season minus the last 4 games.

All that said, if they keep this up, that shouldn't be a problem. But that is a huge IF.

[JoelOtto29]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I don't think any team has made the playoffs with the worst PK or worse PP in the league. Let alone both..

FIX IT HARTLEY!! Fire Gelinas if he's not working out. There is no excuse to have the worst PP in the league with the skill we have both at forward and on defense.

Our special teams is our achilles heel right now, as you could argue weak goaltending was at the beginning of the season. The team has looked great 5-5 but crumble when it comes to 5-4.

There's still over 50 games to get the PP and PK straightened out though, and I don't have any real concern they won't. As you say, there's too much talent and skill, not to mention the blueline seems built for the PP.

Imo, calling for the head of Gelinas is as silly as people calling for a Hamilton trade earlier in the year. Just my 2 cents.

[kyuss275]

I really want the flames to make playoffs, but i don't think they can with this goaltending duo. Hiller looks like complete crap this year. Ramo who has been playing better of late, can't start the next 50+ games for the flames and give them a legitament chance at playoffs.

[ignite09]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

IMO the Flames will still be picking top 5 in June. Historically bad special teams and goaltenders that are so bad that 4 goals for is the minimum requirement to get a win is a recipe for a high lottery pick. This winning streak at home is largely based on opportunistic goals as the rest of their game is still horrible.

Bull####. We're one of the best 5v5 teams out there.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

IMO the Flames will still be picking top 5 in June.

Give it up bud

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I believe this team is 6th in the league in even strength scoring

Was 6th. Is now 4th, with a game in hand on Dallas and two games in hand on Montreal/New York

[Travis Munroe]

I will take a terrible PP which is evolving into an avg PP & one of the worst PK in the league with a talented squad over a great PP and great PK with a less than average talented squad.

The PP and PK can be fixed much easier than trying to convince a team with no stars that they deserve better.

Add in some better than average goaltending which we have had of late and a bad PK or bad PP will still keep you alive in the game.

Lets not forget, this team is sitting in the playoffs with no questions asked should we get goaltending equal to a 15-20th place team early in the season.