Rube's 2015 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[rubecube]

Crap, forgot to post these .

PHI - 5.5
JAX +5
PIT - 7
TB - 2
DEN - 6.5
NE - 7
SEA - 3

[GirlySports]

i heard that straight up favorites were 2-13 this week with tonight to go. Only NE and Pit won.

Pools this week will be a low score. Maybe only 8 or 9 out of 13?

[Frequitude]

Well I put up my worst week yet. 5-8. I was going to blame rubecube since I couldn't steal his choices, but most of my wins actually game from the set he just posted. I pretty much got every one of my own choices wrong.

[Sylvanfan]

There was some good money to make for those bold enough to take teams like Detroit, Chicago, Jacksonville, and Kansas City on a money line play.

[GirlySports]

Bungles lose.

What's the winning pools ticket going to be? 11/14? maybe?

[Hockey]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

i heard that straight up favorites were 2-13 this week with tonight to go. Only NE and Pit won.

Pools this week will be a low score. Maybe only 8 or 9 out of 13?

I got 2 games right in one of my pools. Minny and NE. I was only trying to reach with Browns and Titans.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Well I put up my worst week yet. 5-8. I was going to blame rubecube since I couldn't steal his choices, but most of my wins actually game from the set he just posted. I pretty much got every one of my own choices wrong.

Yeah I messed up. I usually do them on Fridays at work but I had to go off site on this past one, so I didn't actually get to it until Sunday morning and had to rush to get them in.

[GirlySports]

wclc pools 3 people got 12/13

ontario pool 6 people got 12/13

amazing.

[rubecube]

Well despite doing a rushed job last week, I ended up 4-4, putting me 49-36-3 for the year. Looking like some crazy overreactions to last week's games, and some general weirdness altogether (only 1 home dog). This might be one of those weeks to go against the grain.

CAR -7.5
OAK ML
DAL -1
DEN -1
GB ML
CIN +5
SD/KC O45

[rubecube]

And just for fun (I'm not adding it to the overall season record either way), I threw $5 down on a ML dog parlay of IND, SD, STL, GB, TB, CIN.

[Sylvanfan]

Given the Chargers injury problems at receiver and the offensive line as well as KC's field goal happy offence, that one likely ends up being a 31-28 game with one team converting 3 TD's for 2 points to get to 31.

[rubecube]

5-2 last week brings me to 54-38-3 for the year. Really mad I didn't get in on the Panthers and Lions yesterday.

MIN +1.5
CIN -8
NYG -2.5
NYJ -3.5
TB ML
DEN +2.5
CLE -3

[Frequitude]

Thanks Rube. I'm holding onto the lead in my office pool thanks to you.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Thanks Rube. I'm holding onto the lead in my office pool thanks to you.

Haha no problem. If I ever get off my ass and do a podcast, I can probably do a better job of explaining why I make my picks. I actually recorded a test run a few weeks ago but found I ended up babbling too much and the whole thing ended up being 90 minutes long or so. I figure no one has time for that, so I'm going to try and condense it into an hour or so on the next attempt. Mind you the season is almost over at this point.

[Frequitude]

I'd listen. I've been in the work ATS pool for a few years now and joined a fantasy league with buddies this year. Sunday's are much more fun with vested interest.

With the rest of the picks I've gone

Oak -1.5
KC -5
Jax -3.5
Hou -3
Ari -10.5
Pit +4

But I'm essentially as good as a monkey picking. Thoughts?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I'd listen. I've been in the work ATS pool for a few years now and joined a fantasy league with buddies this year. Sunday's are much more fun with vested interest.

With the rest of the picks I've gone

Oak -1.5
KC -5
Jax -3.5
Hou -3
Ari -10.5
Pit +4

But I'm essentially as good as a monkey picking. Thoughts?

I can't really argue with any of those. Sort of along the lines of what I was thinking but just didn't feel strong enough on the games to put money down. The ones I would probably change would be the KC and Jacksonville bets. One of the things I've tried to do this year is approach sports betting like I approach poker, where I make bets that I feel should win the majority of the time. So as an example, I would look at the Jacksonville game and think, if they played that game 100 times, how many times do I think Jacksonville would win by more than 3.5. If I see it as 50/50, or in that range, I usually stay away because the odds in my mind don't match up to the potential profit. It's obviously not as scientific as poker, because my biases and perceptions make the calculations much more arbitrary than the mathematical odds you have in poker.

[Frequitude]

Done and done, boss. Thank you.

[malcolmk14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

5-2 last week brings me to 54-38-3 for the year. Really mad I didn't get in on the Panthers and Lions yesterday.

MIN +1.5
CIN -8
NYG -2.5
NYJ -3.5
TB ML
DEN +2.5
CLE -3

I went with:

MIN +1
STL +9
NYG -3
MIA +4
IND -3
DEN +3
CLE -3

Bolded the picks that are different from yours! Good luck!

[rubecube]

4-3 last week and 58-41-3 on the year. Not feeling great about my picks this week but we'll see.

CIN -10
JAX ML
SF +7.5
BUF -3
ARI -5
TB ML
DEN -3.5
PIT -7
CAR -7
NE -10

The ones I'm kinda feeling iffy and on are Carolina and Cincy.

[Sylvanfan]

Oakland +2.5 at home to KC and Washington -4.5 stand out to me as favorable bets for this week.