Stockton Heat 2015/2016 General Discussion

[saillias]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

My favourite moment was on the main board somebody said they thought Morrison would compete for a top 4 role in training camp this year, not on Stockton, on Calgary! LOL. The kids we drafted this year had a better shot of making it.

It was Caged Great, who attended dev camp in person filming everything with an iPad and interviewed all the prospects for Fireside Chat. Tends to have a good read on which guys are going to "Jooris" in any year. So I'll give him a pass.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by saillias

It was Caged Great, who attended dev camp in person filming everything with an iPad and interviewed all the prospects for Fireside Chat. Tends to have a good read on which guys are going to "Jooris" in any year. So I'll give him a pass.

Yeah agreed, I am not going to crap on a guy that did us the favour of scouting the players just because he made a mistake. Everyone is guilty of over-hyping a player from time to time.

I am happy to hear that Smith is making progress.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by saillias

It was Caged Great, who attended dev camp in person filming everything with an iPad and interviewed all the prospects for Fireside Chat. Tends to have a good read on which guys are going to "Jooris" in any year. So I'll give him a pass.

He was doing pretty good and has fallen off the face of the earth since then. It does occasionally happen, although not usually this dramatically. I had not watched a ton of him before the Flames signed him, so I was basing my evaluations mostly on the 7 or 8 times I saw him play in the A last year and then at the development camp.

He was jumping in the play quite a lot like Brodie and playing authoritatively at the end of last season. He was looking like he was at a level above Kulak, and right there with Hickey. Since then he has played more like Eric Roy than those other guys from the beginning of this year. It's like you're not even watching the same guy, that's how much worse he's playing.

Any time you're dealing with something abstract, randomness is part of the landscape. Typically players that do A, B, and C tend to go on and do D. Morrison did not follow that progression trend. It happens. He may still rebound, or he might fizzle out entirely. More information (games played) will be needed to see if he figures out whatever his problem was and if he's able to correct it.

If it was an exact science, the best players in every draft would get selected in order from 1 through 210. Most of what I try to do is see the underlying patterns to a players game and projecting forward based off other comps that I have watched that have the same elements in their game. Some times I am able to "Jooris" it, some times I "Morrison" it, although I am rarely as wrong as I was with him. Typically when I'm wrong it's thinking that a guy like Sieloff might be able to carve out a career as a Deryk Engelland #6/7 guy and he hasn't yet shown that he can elevate his game to even that level yet.

[sureLoss]

The Mayor John Hoven @mayorNHL
NHL Network will air Stockton Heat v Bakersfield Condors outdoor game on 12/18, live from Sacramento’s Raley Field. #AHL #hockey

No word yet if anyone in Canada will be broadcasting it legally.

[druetetective]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

He was doing pretty good and has fallen off the face of the earth since then. It does occasionally happen, although not usually this dramatically. I had not watched a ton of him before the Flames signed him, so I was basing my evaluations mostly on the 7 or 8 times I saw him play in the A last year and then at the development camp.

He was jumping in the play quite a lot like Brodie and playing authoritatively at the end of last season. He was looking like he was at a level above Kulak, and right there with Hickey. Since then he has played more like Eric Roy than those other guys from the beginning of this year. It's like you're not even watching the same guy, that's how much worse he's playing.

Any time you're dealing with something abstract, randomness is part of the landscape. Typically players that do A, B, and C tend to go on and do D. Morrison did not follow that progression trend. It happens. He may still rebound, or he might fizzle out entirely. More information (games played) will be needed to see if he figures out whatever his problem was and if he's able to correct it.

If it was an exact science, the best players in every draft would get selected in order from 1 through 210. Most of what I try to do is see the underlying patterns to a players game and projecting forward based off other comps that I have watched that have the same elements in their game. Some times I am able to "Jooris" it, some times I "Morrison" it, although I am rarely as wrong as I was with him. Typically when I'm wrong it's thinking that a guy like Sieloff might be able to carve out a career as a Deryk Engelland #6/7 guy and he hasn't yet shown that he can elevate his game to even that level yet.

everybody has their misses

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by druetetective

Or Poirer going straight to the NHL? Corban Knight turning into a 50 point 3rd line C.

No offense dude but if there is anyone guilty of hyperbole and making bold absolute projections with prospects it's you.

Poirier pretty much went straight to the NHL. After rehabbing a significant shoulder injury for a couple months in the AHL and getting back to the proper conditioning level he was recalled. The problem he encountered was that the manner that he generated offense did not work at that level. Since then he has been working on modifying his game in Stockton so he can contribute at a level commiserate with his talent. His struggles this year are the same ones that Hamilton encountered at the start of this year. Trying to do something you're not comfortable with makes a difference. He is coming around significantly the past 2 weeks and I am expecting him to continue to play at a high level.

It is interesting with Knight and Morrison, the two biggest misses I have had to this point, are players that I was the least familiar with prior to seeing them for the first time. Seeing them in a small sample size when they are having great games/practices impacts my opinion to a more significant level. Typically scouts that watch players to do profiles for a report usually see the player 4-6 times at a minimum. The more you watch them, the more you understand a player. I hadn't watched a full game of either prior to watching them play either in the AHL in Morrison's case, or at the development camp where I made those over estimated projections. Significantly more often than not I'm on the money with my projections, and usually in those cases it's with players that I am more familiar in how they play.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Poirier pretty much went straight to the NHL. After rehabbing a significant shoulder injury for a couple months in the AHL and getting back to the proper conditioning level he was recalled. The problem he encountered was that the manner that he generated offense did not work at that level. Since then he has been working on modifying his game in Stockton so he can contribute at a level commiserate with his talent. His struggles this year are the same ones that Hamilton encountered at the start of this year. Trying to do something you're not comfortable with makes a difference. He is coming around significantly the past 2 weeks and I am expecting him to continue to play at a high level.

It is interesting with Knight and Morrison, the two biggest misses I have had to this point, are players that I was the least familiar with prior to seeing them for the first time. Seeing them in a small sample size when they are having great games/practices impacts my opinion to a more significant level. Typically scouts that watch players to do profiles for a report usually see the player 4-6 times at a minimum. The more you watch them, the more you understand a player. I hadn't watched a full game of either prior to watching them play either in the AHL in Morrison's case, or at the development camp where I made those over estimated projections. Significantly more often than not I'm on the money with my projections, and usually in those cases it's with players that I am more familiar in how they play.

I'm sorry but Poirier did not pretty much go straight to the NHL. He was recalled with Ferland at the end of February after playing 40+ games with Adirondack when Byron was placed on IR and Stajan was expecting his baby. He them played what, 5 games before being sent down? I like your input on this site, but you (and many many others) were wrong about Poirier.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I'm sorry but Poirier did not pretty much go straight to the NHL. He was recalled with Ferland at the end of February after playing 40+ games with Adirondack when Byron was placed on IR and Stajan was expecting his baby. He them played what, 5 games before being sent down? I like your input on this site, but you (and many many others) were wrong about Poirier.

When I said that initially, it was before his shoulder surgery. If he wasn't injured, he likely would have pushed for a spot sooner or started in the league from day one. The team was in the middle of a playoff push, which is not exactly the time you want to bring anyone up. If the Flames had been in a spot similar to where they are now, he would have been rewarded for his awesome first two months.

Circumstances around the team can affect things like that.

Also, how is anyone wrong about Poirier? He has a lot of talent, he's learning a new way to generate offense, which takes time. His skill hasn't vanished. The past 5 games he could have scored 5 or 6 times if he received better luck. So many pucks bouncing on him just before reaching him as he was winding up for a 1 timer on a mostly empty net. The one time it didn't bounce he picked the corner with it. If he doesn't get his stuff together 2-3 years from now, that's different. This is the same kind of patience that led to people pronouncing Jankowski a bust since the day he was drafted. Magically all those thoughts and opinions have disappeared since he started tearing the NCAA a new one.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

When I said that initially, it was before his shoulder surgery. If he wasn't injured, he likely would have pushed for a spot sooner or started in the league from day one. The team was in the middle of a playoff push, which is not exactly the time you want to bring anyone up. If the Flames had been in a spot similar to where they are now, he would have been rewarded for his awesome first two months.

Circumstances around the team can affect things like that.

Also, how is anyone wrong about Poirier? He has a lot of talent, he's learning a new way to generate offense, which takes time. His skill hasn't vanished. The past 5 games he could have scored 5 or 6 times if he received better luck. So many pucks bouncing on him just before reaching him as he was winding up for a 1 timer on a mostly empty net. The one time it didn't bounce he picked the corner with it. If he doesn't get his stuff together 2-3 years from now, that's different. This is the same kind of patience that led to people pronouncing Jankowski a bust since the day he was drafted. Magically all those thoughts and opinions have disappeared since he started tearing the NCAA a new one.

I simply meant it seems alot of people had him penciled into the opening day line-up last year (and even this year)

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I simply meant it seems alot of people had him penciled into the opening day line-up last year (and even this year)

True, but I think a lot of people had guys like Granlund and Arnold possibly making the team as well. Just no room because of the amount of contracts unfortunately. I think both those two would have if this was last year where all the spots were open for the taking.

The main problem with Poirier is that a large amount of how he generated offense in the Q and in Adirondack was by blowing past mediocre D-men. It's a lot harder to do that in the NHL because they use their sticks better. Not as much time and space to do things. You don't know if the player will be able to make adjustments on the fly like Gaudreau/Bennett did though until you try it. It wasn't working, so he needed to change. He probably won't be down there for long. If the Flames do sell at the deadline, I would expect both he and Arnold get recalled for good.

[442scotty]

Much appreciate your input.... Hope to see both of them up for a long look as well... Especially Arnold who has had a lot of injury bad luck at the wrong times

[Trailer Fire]

Gillies opts for surgery. 4-6 month timetable to return.

[Rick M.]

How are Culkin and Kulak performing?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

How are Culkin and Kulak performing?

Culkin was out with injury, and since coming back has been playing down in Adirondack on what I assume is a conditioning stint to get back to speed.

Has 3 assists in 6 games down there.

[druetetective]

Hopefully Poirer can still develop into an elite 3rd liner. He has all the tools but seems to be going through a sophomore slump. The positive is he has time on his side as he's still only 20 years old.

A player like Knight and others who go 4 years in NCAA can't afford to take 3-4 years to develop because they start their pro career so late (22-23)

[druetetective]

Former Flames/Heat

-Hankowski is tied for 2nd on his German team with 11G and 20P in 22GP. His team feature 11 canadians with 5 from Alberta. Former Heat Brady Lamb and Heisman Hobey Baker thief Drew Leblanc also suit up for the Augsburg Panthers.

David Wolf is struggling with 1G and 3A for the Hamburg Freezers. I Know a few posters were high on him(or maybe just high themselves) and thought he had a future with the Flames but I guess Ferland kinda won that role.

-Reinhart has 6G and 5A in 20 GP in AHL. Have the conditions of the trade with the Preds been made public? Any speculation? NHL GP? Not lost on waivers? Has to release a billboard topping country album?

-Seems like Knight has yet to play a game this season.

-Cundari has 4P in 16 GP for Barracuda. I admit I had expectations he would be a good 7th or 8th D for us. However I never made any statements in the absolute to make myself look silly.

-Ramage and Yevenko have 1 P each for the Lake Erie Monsters in 12 and 14 GP respectively.

Finally The Brian McGrattan has 3G 5P and 61 Pim for the San Diego Gulls. Best wishes Brian!!!
-

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by druetetective

Hopefully Poirer can still develop into an elite 3rd liner. He has all the tools but seems to be going through a sophomore slump. The positive is he has time on his side as he's still only 20 years old.

why would you think Poirier couldn't develop into a top 6 forward? Poirier has actually been playing fairly well and been creating scoring chances, he or his linemates haven't been able to bury them.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by druetetective

Or Poirer going straight to the NHL? Corban Knight turning into a 50 point 3rd line C.

No offense dude but if there is anyone guilty of hyperbole and making bold absolute projections with prospects it's you.

Not a fan of the way Caged Great presents his posts, he's not a scout, he's not scouting, just a fan watching like the rest of us, but that's a petty post, at least he's out there giving us tonnes of information.

Strong play late in the season or in summer prospect camp are instances we should take with a grain of salt. It's a lesson maybe Caged Great is learning and one any prospect follower has learned, myself included.

[Roof-Daddy]

I guess no point in starting a game thread with only one period left, but the Heat are down 4-2 to the Barracudas.

Ortio has given up 4 goals on 15 shots, as the Heat have out shot San Jose 25-15 thru two periods. Not sure if they were weak goals or not, but either way the ole save percentage is taking a snot kicking tonight.

Agostino has both goals, with assists from Hamilton on one goal, and Hamilton/Hathaway on the other goal.

[Roof-Daddy]

5 minutes left.

Heat out shooting the Cudas 14-2 in the third, but no goals so far.

Agostino just hit the post on the PP, would have been the first hat trick in Stockton Heat history.