[Rumour] Kopitar contract extension nearly done. (8yrs, ~$9.75mil AAV)

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

While I would heavily disagree with that comparison, I mean I think there's a pretty more obvious player on the Hawks to compare him too, even if you do think he's Hossa quality his contract isn't out of line.

Hossa is 36, the same age Kopitar would be when the rumoured contract expires. Hossa made 7.9M each year for the last 7 years. Hossa's contract began when the salary cap was 56.8M. Hossa was paid, in terms of real money (the thing players actually care about), 14% of the cap when his contract kicked in until he was 36.

Kopitar's rumoured contract would be roughly 13% of the cap when it firsts kicks in until he is 36.

Don't get fooled by the retirement years that skewed the actual pay of players and cap-hits. I'm sure if the Kings could, they would love to add on 15 years at 1M to reduce the cap hit, but they can't anymore.

Fair enough from the player standpoint of maximizing their earnings (and I certainly don't begrudge a player trying to get as much as the market allows) but from a fan and team management point-of-view working within the restraints of the cap, I don't think he's worth a $9.75 million cap hit even next season, let alone seven years from now.

I understand the comparison to Toews given the stats and two-way play but I think Toews has a greater ability to turn it up offensively if needed.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

He's a good player on a good team but he has never carried his team. He's a point per game in the playoffs but do you really think he is more important to that team than Doughty or Quick? He doesn't have that level of talent. If I were to compare him with someone else, it would be Hossa. Great player but never going to get it done unless he has a really strong supporting cast. You can't tie that much salary up on a player like him.

I honestly think the Kings can do better without him at 9.75 million a year by using that salary elsewhere.

So who's this #1C they can replace Kopitar with that can do better?

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Fair enough from the player standpoint of maximizing their earnings (and I certainly don't begrudge a player trying to get as much as the market allows) but from a fan and team management point-of-view working within the restraints of the cap, I don't think he's worth a $9.75 million cap hit even next season, let alone seven years from now.

I understand the comparison to Toews given the stats and two-way play but I think Toews has a greater ability to turn it up offensively if needed.

I would give a preference to Toews as well, but how about Ryan O'Reilly? Mentioned above and great comparison (ROR @ $7.5M, albeit younger)

The term sucks, but if they are discussing the NTC/NMC to finalize terms, pretty much tells me he probably won't be finishing that contract with the LAK.

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I would give a preference to Toews as well, but how about Ryan O'Reilly? Mentioned above and great comparison (ROR @ $7.5M, albeit younger)

The term sucks, but if they are discussing the NTC/NMC to finalize terms, pretty much tells me he probably won't be finishing that contract with the LAK.

Maybe I'm just not keeping up with inflation of salaries. The O'Reilly contract looks bad to me too. I think teams with those really big contracts (8m plus) are eventually hurt by them; it's just a question of when. And the Kings are already in cap trouble. This is going to make it a lot worse.

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

So who's this #1C they can replace Kopitar with that can do better?

I don't think they can get a player in right away that replaces Kopitar. I just see gaps forming in that roster than can't be filled because they're paying just shy of 10 million for a #1 centre who is likely to be a 60 point guy for a few more years but who I expect to decline fairly rapidly.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Maybe I'm just not keeping up with inflation of salaries. The O'Reilly contract looks bad to me too. I think teams with those really big contracts (8m plus) are eventually hurt by them; it's just a question of when. And the Kings are already in cap trouble. This is going to make it a lot worse.

Yeah they'll be in cap hell in a few years (probably try to pawn these off later), but they're going all in for the few years.

The "new NHL" is paying your top guys $7M-12M (and Kopitar fits in that range) and your 3rd-4th liners and depth defenseman peanuts. We really saw that affect this summer when so many established UFAs only got PTO's. Within a few years, 3rd-4th liners and if we ever get the quality up, bottom pairing D will be paid minimum and your 1st line is all getting $10M.

ROR gets $7.5M, Eric Staal $9.3M, Suter and Parise at $9M, Kessel $10M, Bergeron at $8.75M... all players that Kopitar is better than. Toews and Kane making $14M, is Kopitar 2/3 of the player they are? I'd say better than 2/3 (and in the same league).

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Kopitar deserves more. He has 2 rings. Price hasn't won a playoff game yet.

Why are we talking about Price?

[Singularity]

i feel like this contract will come back and haunt the kings

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Why are we talking about Price?

David Price, the baseball pitcher, might get 210 million. And he didn't win a playoff game.

Someone brought up his salary.

[sun]

Top ten player in the league IMO. Contract will be an anchor at the end, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Why are we talking about Price?

Originally Posted by albertGQ

I would sign Kopitar to a $217M / 7 year contract

I assumed this is what you meant unless you just randomly perfectly selected the money and term which would be weird.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/blueja...ct-report.html

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

do you really think he is more important to that team than Doughty or Quick? He doesn't have that level of talent.

He is absolutely more important than Quick. How does he not have that level of talent? He's a selke-calibre center with a dominant cycle game offensively. He's literally everything the Flames have dreamed of since Joe Nieuwendyk and possibly the best playoff forward of our era.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Singularity

i feel like this contract will come back and haunt the kings

Don't worry... I'm sure Bettman will just find some way to allow them to weasel out of it again if it does.

[Aegypticus]

I think using Toews as a comparable is fair, but I don't think Kopitar should get $10 million per year.

I don't think any player should get $10 million per year.

Does anyone else feel like the contracts of star players are getting completely out of control? I know all these crazy numbers are allowed under the cap and all the other reasons it's happening, but these 8, 10, 12, 14 million per year contracts just seem to be causing so many problems in the league.

Like was mentioned, there are vets being squeezed out of the league. Teams either need a constant inflow of young players or total plugs to fill out the lower lines. The huge contracts seem to be dragging up the contracts of mid-range players so that we get guys like Mason Raymond sitting in the press box half the time for over $3 million. Also mentioned was the lack of player movement. Teams have to dismantle and re-imagine themselves every off season. I'm sure other people could add lots to this list.

I'm fully cognizant of the fact that the genie is almost certainly not going back in the bottle at this point. I just really think the league would be a lot better off if the top level contracts were capped around $7-8 million per year and the league minimum salary was bumped way up with the same overall team cap. Spread that wealth around a bit.

Goodness knows it would be better for the average player in the long run. Just don't try to tell that to the PA. They seem to have every grinder in the league convinced that they, too, can be Sidney Crosby and join the 8 digit club.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Aegypticus

I think using Toews as a comparable is fair, but I don't think Kopitar should get $10 million per year.

I don't think any player should get $10 million per year.

Does anyone else feel like the contracts of star players are getting completely out of control? I know all these crazy numbers are allowed under the cap and all the other reasons it's happening, but these 8, 10, 12, 14 million per year contracts just seem to be causing so many problems in the league.

Iginla's first contract under the cap was 7M. That was with a salary cap ceiling of 39M. He was taking up 18% of the cap ceiling and the average payroll was under 35M, so Iginla was making 20% of the average NHL payroll. Even when he got his re-up in the 2008-2009 season he was taking up over 12% of the cap, and with the average payroll at 51M he was nearing 14% of the average teams payroll. There were 15 players with a higher cap-hit than Iginla that year, including Ovechkin who's 9.5M cap hit was over 18% of the cap ceiling and with the low-cap teams spending roughly 44M. Ovechkin's cap alone was over 20% of what Nashville and Phoenix were spending on all their players.

A 10M dollar player today is taking up 14% of today's 71.4M cap. With all teams spending at least 60M, a 10M player is only being paid about 16% of what Arizona is spending on their entire roster.

I think today's biggest 'problem' with mid-tier vets getting pushed out of the line up is the amount of quality young players knocking on the door. You mention Raymond. Cap has nothing to do with why he's sitting, the organization has too many forwards pushing him down the depth chart.

It's really not the star players. The top tier players will continue to make there ~15% of the cap ceiling. The issue is the middle of the pack players. If a player is replaceable by a young player making a million a year, why would you throw money at him? If a team doesn't think this mid-tier player is replaceable, they will throw money at him and fill the rest of their lineup with the entry-level league minimum contracts to squeeze him in. There seems to be more of a have and have-not dynamic forming in the middle tier rather than changes to the top tier.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

But I still see him as more of a reliable two-way grinder rather than an offensive star or leader who can take a team on his shoulders.

So, basically, he's a bigger, faster, more skilled Jonathan Toews but "Toews has a greater ability to turn it up offensively if needed."

Right.

Seriously, the biggest "Toews moment" in last year's entire cup run, was scoring a fluky terrible angle goal on Frederik Andersen that should never have gone in (just like Frolik's fluke goal on Talbot a few weeks ago).

You're simultaneously overrating Toews and underrating Kopitar. The only thing Toews (and Bergeron) does better than Kopitar is win faceoffs, Kopitar is better at every other thing.

[EuKnoLikeMonny]

Looking at guys like Toews and Kopitar in the scheme of 'top line centers' is extremely difficult.

When you look at the two, strictly by normal statistics (ie. points), they are surely in the upper echelon of the leagues superstars. However the true value of these players isn't recognized in a way that shows up in regular stats (goals, assists, etc.), but in their intangible values.

ie. Kopitar shutting down an opposing top line, or winning key defensive faceoffs late in the game when it's on the line.

At the end of this I just looked up Kopitars numbers and they are actually pretty good.

TL; DR

Intangibles add value to the player, but exactly how they factor in to contract negotiations must be difficult?

[codynw]

All this and the Toews contract tells me is that Bergeron has one of the best cap hits in the league right now.

[GreenLantern2814]

Kopitar will be 36 at the end of the deal. Will he be a $10M player? Probably not. Will he be a $6M player? I'd say that's a reasonable bet to make. He's a horse, he has two rings, and he's far and away the most talented forward the team has. Pay the man his money.