What are the gaps we must fill by 5th year of rebuild?

[Computerjungle]

Stamkos?

[Monahan For Mayor]

Bishop ?

[BACKCHECK!!!]

An elite goal scoring winger, a top-6 winger with size, and a good starting goalie

This team is exceptionally well situated on defence. and if Bennett reaches anywhere near his potential, they'll be similarly well placed at centre.

They just need more size, a bit more finish, and a goalie who can stop a beach ball. Most of the rest of the pieces are already in place, we just have to wait for them to ripen

[Hackey]

This season might be a blessing in disguise. We were gonna have some real difficult decisions come trade deadline time and I think those decisions will be a lot easier now. Will get a chance to cash in some assets and will be able to land another key building block in the draft. The team has some nice pieces but I still think were missing a fair amount as well and this is probably the easiest way to help fill those voids.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Alright, let's give this a shot. If we're talking year 5 of the rebuild, we're talking the 2017-18 season.

Players from the current roster that will likely be part of the team in a couple years:

Gaudreau-X-X
Bennett-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund*-Colborne*
Bouma-Stajan*-X
(If you'd rather Bennett somewhere on the top line, that's fine too, but it still leaves a hole)

Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-X
X-X

X-X (no goalies)

* = players who may be traded or not re-signed.

So in my estimation, at minimum we need a top line center and right wing, a 3rd/4th line right winger, a legitimate top 4 defenseman, and two bottom pairing defensemen.

I honestly don't think we should worry about the 3rd/4th line winger as those can be found easily, probably internally. Bottom pairing defensemen are also found relatively easily (see last year with Diaz and Schlemko), so let's not get too concerned about that. We have plenty of viable bottom pairing defense prospects in the system to fill those spots internally. Any of Kulak, Culkin, Sieloff, Wotherspoon, Morrison etc. can step up over the next couple years.

The big problem is finding a top line center who can handle the other big centers in the Western Conference, as well as a natural right winger with size who can finish Gaudreau's plays. For the top line center, you'll never find it through a trade or UFA signing without drastically overpaying for it (see Brad Richards almost $10 million/year contract offer a few years ago). The only way to fill it is internally through the draft. An elite right winger could be found, but it will also cost plenty to acquire. Still best to find that through the draft.

The #4 defenseman is also hard to find, but I think one of Andersson, Kylington, Hickey, et al could fill that role. If not, you go out and acquire one somehow. They just need to be able to handle top 4 responsibilities, have some size to balance out Gio's average size, and be able to skate decently. I personally think Andersson will be the guy in a couple years time.

What about goaltending? So hard to predict. How many goalies that are drafted end up anywhere near their potential? For now I would like to think that the tandem will eventually be Gillies and McDonald, but it's really hard to say that with any confidence. This may be the one position we need to fill through a trade or a UFA signing, but you rarely get a top 15 goalie that way.

Here are the players in the system that I think could be on the team in two years, and where I expect them in the lineup.

X-Jankowski-X
X-X-X
X-X-Poirier
X-Arnold-X

X-X
Hickey-Andersson
Sieloff-Morrison (Kulak, Culkin?)

Gillies-X

Yes, I think Jankowski might end up being our 1st line center in a couple years. I have a lot of reasons to think that it's possible, but I won't go into that now. We still have Monahan and Bennett who could take that spot too, so overall that will get sorted out at some point.

The big right winger who can finish plays is still missing, but that might get sorted with our 1st round pick this year.

I think you see 1-2 of Backlund, Stajan, and Colborne either traded or not re-signed. My money is on Backlund staying, Colborne is retained as a bottom 6 winger, and Arnold eventually takes over as the 4th line center as Stajan gets traded for just about anything.

What I can roughly see in 2 years time:

Gaudreau-Jankowski-2016 1st round pick
Bennett-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund-Poirier
Bouma-Arnold-Colborne

Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-Andersson
Sieloff-Hickey

Gillies-X

To me it really hinges on Gillies developing into a quality starting goaltender. If that happens, just about everything else will take care of itself.

[Da_Chief]

Lol Janko has gone from an immediate bust to people's top line projection. I guess we better sign him.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Lol Janko has gone from an immediate bust to people's top line projection. I guess we better sign him.

His elc contract will be done at the end of 2017-18 ... pencil him in with a Hamilton level contract?


Interesting how much better the prospects are before they turn pro..... right now Hickey and Jankowski and Rasmussen (according to some) are all closer to the NHL than anyone in the AHL. If Kylington would have been in Brandon this year he would have likely been penciled in as top-4 on the Flames next year.

[driveway]

Short-term needs: A goalie.

Medium-term needs: A stupid goalie.

Long-term needs: A god-damn, stupid goalie.

Seriously though: two top-6 wingers, a bottom-six penalty-killer with speed, and a starting goaltender. Also, trade Russel and Wideman for Hamonic. Please God let Snow be that silly/desperate.

Assume one of the top-six wingers is filled through the draft this year. The guy I want us to go after in the offseason is Boedker. He's likely to get something like what Frolik got, though he's got a little more name recognition, so perhaps a little higher. If we could get him for 5 years 4.5 million I'd be ecstatic.

As for the PK guy, Drew Miller from Detroit is second in the NHL in PK time and a UFA, Boyd Gordon is 5th, Grabner is 8th, Brodziak is 27th. Just basically someone off the list of top-25 PK TOI forwards in the league.

As far as goalies go, the hope is that Ortio rediscovers his form in the AHL, comes back up to the league in late January/February and posts a .930 5v5 save percentage until the end of the year. We re-sign him and then a veteran. Absent that, one-year contracts to any two of the following would be fine:

Reimer, Khudobin, Talbot, Stalock, C. Johnson, Enroth, Raanta, Hutton.

Next year:
Gaudreau-Monahan-Frolik
Boedker-Bennett-2016 1st Draft pick
Miller-Backlund-Bouma
Raymond-Stajan-Ferland

Bollig/Poirier

Giordano-Brodie
Hamilton-Hamonic
Engelland-Warm Body (Nakladal, Culkin, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Smid)

Ortio
Enroth

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I was going to respond to Ricardodw, but then I realized how pointless it would be to try and get into a rational conversation with him.

Who the heck is Rasmussen?

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I was going to respond to Ricardodw, but then I realized how pointless it would be to try and get into a rational conversation with him.

Who the heck is Rasmussen?

A mad scientist cross of Rasmus Andersson and Glen Anderson? Cali, can you elaborate on your projection of Jankowski as a possible number 1 centre, perhaps in a separate post?


OOPS: I see you already made some comments in post 2326 of the Janko thread.

[Hells Bells]

Rasmussen is going to be the next Nicklastrom.

Book it.

[driveway]

I feel Rasmussen plays more like Prondermeyer than Nicklastrom; he's got that mean streak.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

You're looking waaay to far ahead.

Needs are many.
-2 top 6 wingers (Have Gaudreau and Bennett in place)
-1 2nd line center (Monahan in place)
-Faceoff winning 3rd line center

Bennett and Monahan will be our 1-2 punch down the middle (unelss we net Matthews).

Don't let Bob's mishandling of Bennett (and Backlund) fool you.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Alright, let's give this a shot. If we're talking year 5 of the rebuild, we're talking the 2017-18 season.

Players from the current roster that will likely be part of the team in a couple years:

Gaudreau-X-X
Bennett-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund*-Colborne*
Bouma-Stajan*-X
(If you'd rather Bennett somewhere on the top line, that's fine too, but it still leaves a hole)

Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-X
X-X

X-X (no goalies)

* = players who may be traded or not re-signed.

So in my estimation, at minimum we need a top line center and right wing, a 3rd/4th line right winger, a legitimate top 4 defenseman, and two bottom pairing defensemen.

I honestly don't think we should worry about the 3rd/4th line winger as those can be found easily, probably internally. Bottom pairing defensemen are also found relatively easily (see last year with Diaz and Schlemko), so let's not get too concerned about that. We have plenty of viable bottom pairing defense prospects in the system to fill those spots internally. Any of Kulak, Culkin, Sieloff, Wotherspoon, Morrison etc. can step up over the next couple years.

The big problem is finding a top line center who can handle the other big centers in the Western Conference, as well as a natural right winger with size who can finish Gaudreau's plays. For the top line center, you'll never find it through a trade or UFA signing without drastically overpaying for it (see Brad Richards almost $10 million/year contract offer a few years ago). The only way to fill it is internally through the draft. An elite right winger could be found, but it will also cost plenty to acquire. Still best to find that through the draft.

The #4 defenseman is also hard to find, but I think one of Andersson, Kylington, Hickey, et al could fill that role. If not, you go out and acquire one somehow. They just need to be able to handle top 4 responsibilities, have some size to balance out Gio's average size, and be able to skate decently. I personally think Andersson will be the guy in a couple years time.

What about goaltending? So hard to predict. How many goalies that are drafted end up anywhere near their potential? For now I would like to think that the tandem will eventually be Gillies and McDonald, but it's really hard to say that with any confidence. This may be the one position we need to fill through a trade or a UFA signing, but you rarely get a top 15 goalie that way.

Here are the players in the system that I think could be on the team in two years, and where I expect them in the lineup.

X-Jankowski-X
X-X-X
X-X-Poirier
X-Arnold-X

X-X
Hickey-Andersson
Sieloff-Morrison (Kulak, Culkin?)

Gillies-X

Yes, I think Jankowski might end up being our 1st line center in a couple years. I have a lot of reasons to think that it's possible, but I won't go into that now. We still have Monahan and Bennett who could take that spot too, so overall that will get sorted out at some point.

The big right winger who can finish plays is still missing, but that might get sorted with our 1st round pick this year.

I think you see 1-2 of Backlund, Stajan, and Colborne either traded or not re-signed. My money is on Backlund staying, Colborne is retained as a bottom 6 winger, and Arnold eventually takes over as the 4th line center as Stajan gets traded for just about anything.

What I can roughly see in 2 years time:

Gaudreau-Jankowski-2016 1st round pick
Bennett-Monahan-Frolik
Ferland-Backlund-Poirier
Bouma-Arnold-Colborne

Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-Andersson
Sieloff-Hickey

Gillies-X

To me it really hinges on Gillies developing into a quality starting goaltender. If that happens, just about everything else will take care of itself.

Very interested in your first line centre projection for Janko. I still see Bennett there. Please elaborate.

The rest of the season is the time to evaluate Bennett as 1C with Gaudreau. Bennett has showed up to play every game this season to earn that chance.

[Strange Brew]

Time for BT to start earning that genius label people like to put on him.

[Poe969]

I think this year we get a top 4 pick for sure, if it's Matthewes, we've got our #1 guy but I think PullanRV could be that top flight RW that this team has needed since Iggy. If we get Choochrun then I think he could be in the top 4 within 2 years. If we get #4 then I'd be happy with Laine and he could be the big RW we need.

I think as bad as the Flames are doing this year, it's going to help them down the road. This draft is top heavy (at least it seems to me) and a top 4 pick would really help the team out. If the Flames go on some kind of run and end up with a middle of the pack pick, I wouldn't be opposed to trading it away for one of the holes we'll have long term (if a trade like that is available).

Other than that, I 100% agree with Cali's posts.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I was going to respond to Ricardodw, but then I realized how pointless it would be to try and get into a rational conversation with him.

Who the heck is Rasmussen?

Says the guy who has Jankowski as the #1C

That is jumping the rational conversation shark tank.

[5by5]

71 M Gross

7.10 - 10% - Goaltending
24.9 - 35% - Defense
39.0 - 55% - Forwards

DEFENSE

6.75 - Gio
4.65 - Brodie
5.75 - Hamilton
----
17.1 Long Term signings

24.9 - 17.1 = 7.8 mill to sign 4 players

FORWARDS

5.5 - Gaudreau
5.5 - Monahan
5.5 - Bennett
3.2 - Backland
2.2 - Bouma
2.2 - Ferland (probable long term deal)
4.3 - Frolik
----
28.4 Long Term signings

39 - 28.4 = 10.6 Mill to sign 7 players

BT has a tough/tight budget to manage going forward.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Flamescuprun2018

Very interested in your first line centre projection for Janko. I still see Bennett there. Please elaborate.

The rest of the season is the time to evaluate Bennett as 1C with Gaudreau. Bennett has showed up to play every game this season to earn that chance.

Here are my thoughts from the Jankowski thread.

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I want to start by saying I have no idea how any of our young players will turn out, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

BUT, seeing Monahan struggling with top line responsibilities this year, and noting how Bennett is being used a lot on the wing so far, I wonder if there's still an opening for Jankowski to come in and compete for that #1 center spot.

He's clearly developed his defensive game on a top notch defensive club at Providence. He's filled out already, but likely to fill out even more projecting to being around 210-220 and 6 foot 4. I haven't watched him enough to know, but apparently he's really good on the face-off dot. He's been relied upon in all situations by the coaching staff. He's always had great vision and good hands, not to mention being a pretty good skater, and he's now using that to put up points at a high rate. He's also had the experience of winning a national championship.

We all knew this kid was going to be a project, so it's taken some time to get here, and a lot of people were hoping he would be a 3rd line center in the NHL. I definitely wasn't overly impressed by him in the past and you could put me in the group that was skeptical of him ever being an NHL player. BUT, I think at this point you might just see this kid become a complete #1 center that does everything you need on the top line. Is it possible he becomes some version of Ryan Getzlaf? Kopitar? I really don't know. But the mere fact that it's a possibility gets me very intrigued in his progress.

Bennett is going to be an top talent in the NHL, I'm just not sure it will be as a center. It's his natural position, but he's played much better at wing so far. Will he gradually learn the defensive game well enough to be a top line center? That's the part I'm not sure of. He's adequate defensively right now, but he's not a guy that I would rely on to shut down the other team effectively enough to turn it into offense.

Jankowski might only end up being a 3rd line center in the NHL, but I'm convinced at this point that he will make it in some capacity. It's just the way he's been developed that makes me think he has the ability to be a good #1 center, but not as offensively dynamic as guys like Gaudreau and Bennett. He was always a very good offensive player, he just had to catch up to the rest of his age group in terms of defensive acumen, size, systems play, and just the general level of competitiveness. He's just 21, and could easily take another year or two to develop properly, but he could be a better fit than either Monahan or Bennett for #1 center.

Just my thoughts. Speculation and projection is always full of doubt, so take it for what it's worth.

[Inglewood Jack]

so I'm totally on board with filling the coaching gap, which is a thing that exists on the Flames in my opinion. it really does seem like a lot of the teams that rose from rebuilding to elite made the switch just as their young core was beginning to quickly ascend.

with that in mind, who's realistically available to help us fill that gap next season? I know the connection between BT and Tippett has been talked about, though there seems to be a lot of people who say they'd rather jump out a window than watch his supposedly boring style (even if it was a winning style?). but with the Yotes overachieving so far that might not be in the cards.

Hitch will probably hit the road once the Blues fail to get out of the first couple rounds again, but he seems really unpopular with players after a short while, so he'd have to find the right balance of tough love. anyone else? Bond villain Boucher?