Except Joe would get a lot of sympathy votes from the Jury because he's the golden boy who doesn't have to play the game that hard and screw people over because he simply immunitys his way to the end.
Nobody can stand up in front of the finalists and say a lot of bad things about him, meanwhile there's a stack of bodies around Spencers and Jeremy's feat a mile wide.
And I would love to see Abi going ballistic in front of the jury.
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That is a win worthy move right there by Spencer imo.
I dunno... I think Spencer has pretty long odds to win. I mean, everyone has long odds but I think Spencers are longer. Looking at the players and the current Jury I think the only two people he has a chance of beating with odds better then a coin flip are Kimmi and Keith. Joe & Jeremy beat him in a blow-out and the Witches + Tasha are probably coin flips.
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
Except Joe would get a lot of sympathy votes from the Jury because he's the golden boy who doesn't have to play the game that hard and screw people over because he simply immunitys his way to the end.
Well, Joe isn't a Fabio. Joe plays the game (or at least he tries). Here's the thing with Joe... Joe is good at Survivor. Joe is a beast in the challanges, he has a great social game, his strategic game is only so-so but that's enough to get by on. Yes, he's a good meatshield... but he just won 4 challanges in a row if he did it once he can do it again and even if he doesn't the only person who knows that there isn't another idol to be found is Wentworth. No way does Joe survive another immunity loss. If he does they're all fools.
There aren't really a lot of bodies at Spencer's feet. Pretty much just Stephen (and Stephen won't hold that against him).
That is why I think Spencer gave himself a legit shot to win if he makes the finals, this move against Stephen will be viewed as a pivotal point in the game. This was for the most part Spencer's baby, he introduced it, he nourished it and he did crowd control to keep people on point. I would give Whentworth a solid assist on it, but Spencer gets the most credit. Stephen is a huge fan of the game obviously and won't hold this against Spencer but will instead look at it as a reason to vote for him.
I wouldn't say that Joe's social game is great. Joe is great at being friendly to people, but how many actual allies does Joe have or has he had through out the game? He formed one tight bond with Wiggles, that is really all I have seen. He seems to almost socially isolate himself, or try to keep up appearances with everyone but not form enough deep relationships. He survived this vote because Stephen was seen as the bigger threat and this might be the only chance they have to blind side him. They were willing to give Joe a chance to immune his way to the end, a mulligan of sorts, because Stephen needed to go. I think that tells me Spencer and Whentworth think they can beat Joe, and I would agree they can. Being strong in challenges isn't the only reason to win this game. It can get you to the end but you need to have made big bold moves in the process to get there. I feel like Joe has been more of a Pawn than a Knight in this game in regards to the social aspect, and that will bite him in the ass at the end. How many big moves can he say he orchestrated?
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Everyone has said over and over again that this year's game has switched and its now a game of blind sides and loose alliances.
If you're seen as a strategic player that's trying to run the table, you're in mortal danger. I can see that no one will want Spencer or Jeremy who are probably viewed as kingpins getting much further in the game. Because of that and the nature of the final group. Joe, Abi, Tasha are the key swing voters in this game at this point that are in play by Spencer and Jeremy. With I think 8 players left we're looking at 5-3 votes, which means that really two votes are in play.
Abi will go with what's best for her which means that she suddenly becomes a very strategic asset and she's also a disaster in front of the jury. So I doubt she's any danger. Keith could be the appealing vote for the jury because except for immunity challenges he's invisible in this game and could be seen as the guy along for the ride.
If Joe wins immunity, logic states that one of the big strategic players will go home, and they have to be smart enough to see Jeremy's idol play means that he's likely sitting on a second one, so they have to get him out of the game before he uses it.
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I think Keith gets votes if he makes it to the end.
He competes hard in challenges. Everyone seems to like him. Says his peice but then stays out of the gossip and what some would call "game play" (and others would call "what people who can't build fires, collect wood, fix shelters, fish, or scavange for food do all day and get credit for").
This voting block theme plays well for a guy like Keith who casually moves from block to block without getting any attention for doing so.
Joe might win a bunch of challenges, but i don't know if he wins votes on the jury though. It seems like a lot of people just don't like him.
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With all the recent idol plays, it's understandable to me why Fish wanted to split votes - in case Joe had an idol (which was probably very realistic). If he trusted his allies enough (which he did), splitting was a no brainer. The misplay wasn't with what he did with the advantage, it was wrongly trusting Spencer. What would have happened if he decided to take him on reward instead? We'll never know.
He probably saw how Dan put all his eggs in one basket with his advantage last season and didn't want to do the same.
Fish does a Survivor podcast with Rob Cesternino which I am a fan of, I guess that's why I was more invested in how he did this season. He did way better than I expected, and played really hard(whether good or bad) - so in a way he got some redemption from his first time, he didn't want to play passively and lose in the finals again - even if it meant flaming out early.
I don't think it's a no brainer at all. It's a huge advantage and I think with the way the voting has gone all season, you have to go big on that advantage. Kind of a 50/50 that you either get your target or you or one of your allies goes home. That's a risk I'd be willing to put all my votes behind. Sometimes in Survivor you need to make big risky plays, that was one time when it was needed.
I think Spencer is the most dangerous player. Very smart and capable. Joe will still have a target on his back because of how good he is at immunity challenges.
I would take out either of these two if I was still in the game.
Stephen is a huge fan of the game obviously and won't hold this against Spencer but will instead look at it as a reason to vote for him.
I wouldn't say as a reason to vote for him... moreso just not a reason to vote against him. Would Fish vote for Spencer over Kimmi/Keith? For sure, over Wentworth? Maybe, Over Joe? Who knows, Over Jeremy? Not a chance.
Stephen will vote for who he thinks played the best game and he doesn't have the ego to consider getting rid of him to be the be all end all of best game. Spencer can get his vote but he'll have to work for it, he can't coast on this one move.
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Originally Posted by GreenLantern
I wouldn't say that Joe's social game is great. Joe is great at being friendly to people, but how many actual allies does Joe have or has he had through out the game?
Wiggles, Savage, Kass (secret scenes showed Joe and Kass were tight). He has a friendly relationship with the Witches. Wiggles said in exit interviews that she thought she was in a suballiance with Fish, Joe, and Keith and Stephen said on Twitter that they didn't split the vote that Savage went out on because they were worried that Joe & Keith might flip so I think we can say that Keith is with him. Everyone likes Joe... and when you're asked to give $1,000,000.00 to someone it sure doesn't hurt if someone you personally like is an option.
The Jury as currently composed would be very pro Joe.
Well, View on Demand isn't working for me, so it looks like I don't get to see the double episode. However, a bit of research shows that Ciera and Fishback got it last night. That'll also take out BananaPancakes and jkflames for us.
Finally caught up and watched the episodes last night. That was a terrible mistake. Knew as it happened that as soon as he split his own vote he was in trouble. There were too many votes against him last tribal council that even with one of the votes sent to the jury and another stolen he was in danger simply if one person flipped.
He went in cocky thinking he controlled the game fully that he had the thought of "I control this game enough that I won't be going home so I'll split my own vote because it looks cool and super strategic" instead the thought he should have had "No one is safe and even though i think I am, I am going to use my two votes to make darn sure I stay".
What he did is as bad as sitting there with an idol in your hand while you get voted out.
I understand Jeremy's desire to tie Fish to him by saving him with the idol but a moments thought from the other players should lead them down the path that a guy doesn't give up his only idol with 10 players left to save someone. It seems too early for such a move...or should. I wonder if Spencer figures it out.
Wentworth with a good but lucky play to grab an idol that no one will suspect she has.
By and large what I like about this season is nearly every time someone is voted out there is nod of acknowledgement of a game well played from the person being voted out to those remaining. There isn't a lot of personal stuff going on. There is of course some but for the most part this is a cool, rational, strategic game being played. And most everyone is accepting the fact that is a game. It's not real life. I've always found the over the top drama the worst part about the show.
Last edited by ernie; 11-30-2015 at 07:36 AM.
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Yea it is for that reason in your last paragraph I wish they only ever cast super fans. There should be a Survivor test you have to study for and pass before you can get on the show to prove how big of a fan you really are. Real fans accept their blindsides and see it as a good move (not always right that moment, but by the time they cast their jury vote at least), bitter players ruin the concept of the game IMO and we've seen to many people win based on that (Sandra x 2).
__________________ "In brightest day, in blackest night / No evil shall escape my sight / Let those who worship evil's might / Beware my power, Green Lantern's light!"
Fishbach may be the dumbest player I've ever seen on this show.
You have not watched a lot of Survivor, nor do you understand the game, if you think this is even remotely true.
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Originally Posted by Johnny199r
I think Spencer is the most dangerous player. Very smart and capable. Joe will still have a target on his back because of how good he is at immunity challenges.
My thoughts are confirmed. Joe is much more dangerous than Spencer, because of his dominance at challenges. Jeremy is more dangerous, as people like him, he's a physical threat, and he still has an immunity idol that no one suspects he has. They didn't know he had the first one, never mind a second one.
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Originally Posted by Bingo
Jesus this site these days
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Originally Posted by Barnet Flame
He just seemed like a very nice person. I loved Squiggy.
I think Spencer is right up there with Joe in terms of a threat. He's often right there with Joe in challenges (don't forget he gave up two challenges Joe won). And strategically he's way ahead of Joe, and is able to maneuver players in the game. Joe is likable for the most part, but comes across as a tad arrogant at times.
Spencer was almost eliminated near the start of the game, and whether or not you believe him has evolved into a different player. Based on how Probst has pushed the show this year, I would say with his story he's the odds on favourite to win. Heck he even won over his most bitter enemy (Kass), Savage liked him, Wiggles may vote for him, and Fishbach obviously respected his move. He hasn't made any enemies, and hasn't had a black mark in weeks. I think either him or Jeremy win it, if either makes it to the finals.
My rankings would beL
1/2. Spencer/Jeremy (I could go either way)
3. Wentworth
4. Joe
5. Tasha (I think she can talk a good game at final tribal)
6. Keith
Abi and Kimmi have zero chance. I could see both going to the finals, but I kind of hope that doesn't happen as whoever the third is would be the obvious winner.
You have not watched a lot of Survivor, nor do you understand the game, if you think this is even remotely true.
My thoughts are confirmed. Joe is much more dangerous than Spencer, because of his dominance at challenges. Jeremy is more dangerous, as people like him, he's a physical threat, and he still has an immunity idol that no one suspects he has. They didn't know he had the first one, never mind a second one.
I think we will see them figure out he has a second one now. Unless they are total idiots, they should see he wouldn't use one on Fish this early if he didn't have another.
I just don't get how they haven't figured out that Jeremy has a second one, especially in a season with all of those blind sides and voting blocks, you're not going to give away an idol unless you have a backstop plan.
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I just don't get how they haven't figured out that Jeremy has a second one, especially in a season with all of those blind sides and voting blocks, you're not going to give away an idol unless you have a backstop plan.
I am surprised by this as well.
You have to be feeling incredibly comfortable to give away an idol.
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I think we will see them figure out he has a second one now. Unless they are total idiots, they should see he wouldn't use one on Fish this early if he didn't have another.
I think you're giving more credit to malnourished and sleep deprived people then you ought.
Besides it's easy to explain away...
Person X: Hey Jeremy... why didn't you keep your idol for yourself?
Jeremy: I figured that if Fish went then good chance I'd go next and have to use my idol anyways, if folk want Fish out then I'm safe another vote anyways so why not use it and keep a number around another 3 days?
He went in cocky thinking he controlled the game fully that he had the thought of "I control this game enough that I won't be going home so I'll split my own vote because it looks cool and super strategic" instead the thought he should have had "No one is safe and even though i think I am, I am going to use my two votes to make darn sure I stay".
Even if he used his two votes on Joe, he still would have went home by the same vote count. Only way he would have stayed is if he used two votes on Abi. I agree he definitely overthought it, but in his mind it was probably
A. putting two votes on Joe, Joe plays the idol, 100% Fish goes, or
B. split between Joe and Abi, so Abi goes if Joe plays an idol. 33% Fish goes if something (in this case Spencer) backfires
and he obviously chose B.
As for not being suspicious of Jeremy having two idols, I think they definitely are suspicious. But the odds of someone having two idols is extremely low, you probably can't let that stop you from taking a shot at Jeremy when you can.
As for tonight's episode:
Spoiler!
Gotta give credit to Joe, he kept going until he literally could not go anymore. But he didn't really change up his strategy from last time and that cost him. He can't win challenges all the time and do stuff like make hammocks and build fire for everybody.
I was confused by Spencer, once he voted out Fish it seemed the natural move was to stick with the people he voted with (Wentworth's group) but he went back to Jeremy instead. He's played himself into a corner now where he and Jeremy didn't have a choice with the vote tonight. Trying to keep the men together and have Joe stay would result in a 4-4 tie at best, so their only hope was to vote with Tasha and hope she chooses to go with them instead of the all-female alliance.
But that doesn't make sense for Tasha. She's in a great position now if she sticks with the four girls, wins immunity at final 4 (very good chance of that happening, she's a challenge threat) and takes Kimmi and Abi with her to final 3 - she could win this. Wentworth also has a great chance if she does the same, but takes out Tasha at final 4. Very good chance the girls finally take over this game now.
The family visit was a nice moment, especially for Jeremy and Joe.
