Russian SU-24 shot down by Turkey.

[Fuzz]

Last week I watched a really good episode of Anthony Bordain Parts Unknown in Istanbul. He talked a lot with locals about the political situation, it was quite enlightening. Many of them show paranoia to the government similar to what is seen in Iran. The ruling party is highly conservative, and seams to care more about money than much else, other than suppressing the Kurds.

If you can catch the full episode on CNN, it's well worth it:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/08/travel...rnal-bourdain/

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Nobama

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mnta...ature=youtu.be

Make it worse?

According to a reply made three hours ago in relation to that video being posted:

Wrong video/title. This is not Jens Stoltenberg commenting on Turkey shooting down the russian plane on 24th of November, this is old footage from some months ago where NATO showed support for Turkeys protests against border violation. What NATO will say about todays events will be revealed in a couple of hours.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Did they seriously believe there was a threat to their cities? Only the Turkish military leader that ordered the plane shot down can answer that. For all they knew the Russians were acting on intelligence that Syrian rebels were operating inside Turkey and they were chasing them down regardless of Turkish citizen lives.

Were they justified. 100%.

Although valid argument in general, it doesn't apply well to this particular case. The plane was flying across a very narrow piece of Turkish land/airspace at high altitude. With this speed and trajectory, the jet would be out of the Turkish airspace within mere seconds. I am no military expert, but that did not look like attack on Turkey or anyone in the Turkish lands.

[blankall]

This is all really baffling to me....it seems like Turkey and Russia could work out a way to be allies here. Turkey seems to be most concerned with the effect the Syrian conflict is having on Kurdish nationalism. Meanwhile, Russia wants Assad to regain control over the country. It seems as though the natural solution would be for them to team up on the rebels, including the Kurds.

[Bagor]

Russian released image to counter the Turkish released one.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Itse

This is part of a Turkish press release.

(Spoiler for size)

Spoiler!

Some speculative commentary...

That piece of land the fighter flew over is something like 1-3 km wide I believe, so it would take seconds for a fighter jet to fly all the way across. Considering the speeds of fighter jets and relatively small areas of land they're flying over, crossing borders is in probably not that rare.

It does kind of look like the Russian jet was taunting the Turks though.

It's also notable that Russia hasn't said anything about why the jet was there. My guess is that it means one of two things:
a) The jet was doing something they don't really want to talk about. Most probably bombing the Turkmen rebels living near the border. From that angle Turkey wanting to shoot down that jet actually is quite understandable. (Turkmen being ethnically related to Turks.)
b) The jet was really just there to test the Turks patience.

Russia officially said the jet was performing military duties in Syria and did not cross Turkish border. I tend to believe that the first part is true. Second is most likely a lie.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by blankall

This is all really baffling to me....it seems like Turkey and Russia could work out a way to be allies here. Turkey seems to be most concerned with the effect the Syrian conflict is having on Kurdish nationalism. Meanwhile, Russia wants Assad to regain control over the country. It seems as though the natural solution would be for them to team up on the rebels, including the Kurds.

Turkey wants Assad gone, so Turkey will continue to back the rebels.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Although valid argument in general, it doesn't apply well to this particular case. The plane was flying across a very narrow piece of Turkish land/airspace at high altitude. With this speed and trajectory, the jet would be out of the Turkish airspace within mere seconds. I am no military expert, but that did not look like attack on Turkey or anyone in the Turkish lands.

If you read the article posted by Bigtime, it says the request to leave Turkey's airspace was made 10 time over 5 minutes.

If this is to be believed then the incursion was at least 5 minutes long.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Although valid argument in general, it doesn't apply well to this particular case. The plane was flying across a very narrow piece of Turkish land/airspace at high altitude. With this speed and trajectory, the jet would be out of the Turkish airspace within mere seconds. I am no military expert, but that did not look like attack on Turkey or anyone in the Turkish lands.

Do you think the Turkish military didn't challenge the aircraft for more than a few seconds as it approached their borders?

They were probably warning it to change course even before it entered Turkish airspace.

[undercoverbrother]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...maps.html?_r=0


This isn't the first time that Russia has taken an aggressive position in the air.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

Turkey wants Assad gone, so Turkey will continue to back the rebels.

I can see that. But you'd think that Turkey would also realize the risk of a newly formed Kurdish state at their border. You'd think they would just go for the safer route and work with Russia to get rid of the Kurdish rebels. With Russia involved is there really even a chance of getting rid of Assad anymore?

Basically, the Turks have zero chance of getting rid of Assad, but by not cooperating they are risking a Kurdish state forming next door. Seems like horribly failed foreign policy to me.

Although maybe I'm underestimating how much they rely on Sunni support. Maybe they need to put up the guise of fighting the oppressive #####e regime and their Russian friends?

[Language]

I think the downing of the plane has less to do with Turkey being annoyed that Russia was potentially violating its airspace, and more to do with the fact that it's been widely reported that Russia's bombing campaign in Syria has also targeted the rebels opposed to Assad (said rebels which Turkey supports).

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Language

I think the downing of the plane has less to do with Turkey being annoyed that Russia was potentially violating its airspace, and more to do with the fact that it's been widely reported that Russia's bombing campaign in Syria has also targeted the rebels opposed to Assad (said rebels which Turkey supports).

Now that I think about it, although I'm not a huge conspiracy guy, this could all be a case of "Wag the Dog". Turkey needs to save face and Russia needs to crush the rebels, so they both arranged to have this plane shot down. Turkey can claim they are continuing their defence of Sunni insurgents, meanwhile they actually just quietly withdraw.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by blankall

I can see that. But you'd think that Turkey would also realize the risk of a newly formed Kurdish state at their border. You'd think they would just go for the safer route and work with Russia to get rid of the Kurdish rebels. With Russia involved is there really even a chance of getting rid of Assad anymore?

Basically, the Turks have zero chance of getting rid of Assad, but by not cooperating they are risking a Kurdish state forming next door. Seems like horribly failed foreign policy to me.

Although maybe I'm underestimating how much they rely on Sunni support. Maybe they need to put up the guise of fighting the oppressive #####e regime and their Russian friends?

I think you are viewing Turkish thinking through the wrong lens. Erdogan's priority is absolute power at home, so any foreign policy moves need to be viewed in that context. The whole cranking up of the war against PKK/Kurds in the last few months was to stoke nationalism at home, undercut support for the HDP (I think those are the letters - anyhow, the mainly Kurdish political party) and get out the hardline vote in the re-run of of the parliamentary elections. Who knows? Maybe this Russian incident is to set up another domestic move? I mostly laugh at conspiracy theories. In Turkey the conspiracy theories laugh at us. Erdogan is working directly from the Putin playbook...

P.S. I see your next post - there you go.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I think you are viewing Turkish thinking through the wrong lens. Erdogan's priority is absolute power at home, so any foreign policy moves need to be viewed in that context. The whole cranking up of the war against PKK/Kurds in the last few months was to stoke nationalism at home, undercut support for the HDP (I think those are the letters - anyhow, the mainly Kurdish political party) and get out the hardline vote in the re-run of of the parliamentary elections. Who knows? Maybe this Russian incident is to set up another domestic move? I mostly laugh at conspiracy theories. In Turkey the conspiracy theories laugh at us. Erdogan is working directly from the Putin playbook...

P.S. I see your next post - there you go.

Good point. Maybe I'm just looking at things through the wrong lens. The goal could be just short-sighted domestic political gains. It is a page out of the Russian playbook, which is to try and strong arm everyone just for the sake of it. It seems very shortsighted for a country that is located where it is though.

[sureLoss]

Interesting similar story:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...574214,00.html

The Israeli Defence Force shot down a Syrian Su-24 that strayed into their air space by only 800m back in 2014.

[OMG!WTF!]

Turkey has been warning Russia about this for a while....from six weeks ago....

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/1...110905695.html

[PostandIn]

This is just more blood on Putin's already bloody hands. He's been strutting around like a bantam rooster challenging coastlines and airspace of many sovereign countries so, naturally enough, when there's an opportunity, those motivated to strike back will. Never mind the fact that Putin and his talking heads are stone liars on just about every significant issue on the world stage at this particular time in history.

[Bagor]

Who said this?

"A short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack," he said.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18584872

[T@T]

Originally Posted by PostandIn

This is just more blood on Putin's already bloody hands. He's been strutting around like a bantam rooster challenging coastlines and airspace of many sovereign countries so, naturally enough, when there's an opportunity, those motivated to strike back will. Never mind the fact that Putin and his talking heads are stone liars on just about every significant issue on the world stage at this particular time in history.

Strutting yourself near borders shouldn't mean a death sentence either, Russia is bombing Sunni's (ISIS and otherwise) in support of Assad (Shia), Turkey hates Shia's and want any Sunni leadership to take over Syria.

Turkey should be kicked out of NATO for supporting ISIS and now for inciting Russia with an act of war.