2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[868904]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Cueto, Leake, Chen, Kazmi, Zimmerman, Gallardo, Samardzija, Fister, Iwakuma, etc.

I wonder how much of the "players don't want to play in Canada" thing is true. If so, that could be a reason why the Jays have to go the trade route. The free agents they have signed in the past haven't really been prime pickings yet they still end up paying a lot for average players.

The current core was pretty much acquired completely through trades and drafting with Martin being the exception who happens to be Canadian.

Chen might want to come to Toronto as there's a big Chinese population.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by 868904

I wonder how much of the "players don't want to play in Canada" thing is true.

I've read that it is true. Whenever I see a players no trade list Toronto is inevitably on it. I've also heard that once players get there they tend to like it so there's at least that... it's just getting them in the door that's an issue. I mean of all the premium free agent in recent years the only one the Jays were ever able to sign was Russell Martin (who is Canadian) so that's another indicator that it's true.

[adc]

The hard part in judging the "don't want to play in Canada" thing is that for the past 20 years the Jays haven't been an attractive team to play for. Bad record, not a big spending team, 5 year contract limits.

Is Toronto any less desirable than Minnesota? Pittsburgh? KC? Cincinatti?

One area that TO likely does get hurt is that it will have less hometown guys so they might not get a benefit from someone wanting to play closer to home like some US teams might get but for the most part the top guys are going for money and to a lesser extent winning. If TO is handing out 30 million dollar a year deals or 100+ million dollar contracts I don't think guys are going to Miami for 20 million dollars.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

The only pitchers with any upside on the Indians are Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer. Kluber and Carrasco are almost 30 and both have decent sized contracts kicking in.

I'd love to have Salazar and would be more than willing to give up Sanchez for him, but gutting the outfield of it's only major league ready prospect and a rookie coming off a great season makes no sense. Salazar is eligible for Arbitration next year and his price tag is going to be very high in each of the 2017-2020 season. You only really get a deal on him for one year (2016). You can get an established guy as good as Salazar on the FA market, and it's not going to cost you all that much more except in the first year or two.

Carrasco is 28 and has one of the best value contracts in the MLB. He's owed about 17.5mil over the next 3 seasons and has two club options (for around $10mil per season) for the following two seasons. If he doesn't fall off the map, he's locked up for 5 years for about 37.5 million total.

And I don't think you understand how arbitration works. Usually the rule of thumb is that guys make 40%/60%/80% of their free agent price in their three arb years. So acquiring Salazar would give you one entry level year and an average of 60% of his projected market value during his arb years - that works out to probably 50% of his projected market value over his four cost-controlled years.

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Cueto, Leake, Chen, Kazmi, Zimmerman, Gallardo, Samardzija, Fister, Iwakuma, etc.

All of these guys bring as much or more than Carrasco or Salazar. Salazar may be a little younger, but these guys cost you nothing other than a FA contract and a draft pick that more likely than not will not pan out.

There are some better pitchers here (and a lot of worse ones), but every single one of them is going to cost a fortune more than Salazar/Carassco for non-prime years. I mean, are you really comparing signing guys like Cueto/Kazmir/Zimmerman to $100m+ deals to cost-controlled pitchers? Like I said, you are acting like the Jays can't trade Pompey/Sanchez for Salazar and then use the money you want to give to a big name starting pitcher to shore up your percieved outfield problem. Why does this money only exist in the scenario you prefer?

[transplant99]

Donaldson wins MVP.....and rightfully so.

[Jason14h]

But if you can get a Kluber or Salazar for Pompey/Pillar and Sanchez then I would certainly do that and worry about the OF later

It's not just the OF. Why is everyone down on Sanchez. Sure as a starter he has shown control issues, but he is young and can still be a starter.

NO way I trade him and Pillar for those guys. Sign Leake if that's the case.

I don't think people realize how valuable Pillar is. Unless his hitting takes a step baclk next year he is a 3-4 WAR player easily

[Harry Lime]

Kluber is an ace. Carrasco a solid number two. The reason that there is a discussion is because other teams have caught onto the value of Pillar. My preference would be some AA magic moving Revere and Hutchinson for Salazar or Bauer, but the AA pixie dust is a non-renewable resource.We have to work with Shapiro troll dirt, and hope for the best.

[ClubFlames]

Blue Jays sign C Humberto Quintero to a minor league contract. Probably means Navarro is good as gone?

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JayP

Carrasco is 28 and has one of the best value contracts in the MLB. He's owed about 17.5mil over the next 3 seasons and has two club options (for around $10mil per season) for the following two seasons. If he doesn't fall off the map, he's locked up for 5 years for about 37.5 million total.

And I don't think you understand how arbitration works. Usually the rule of thumb is that guys make 40%/60%/80% of their free agent price in their three arb years. So acquiring Salazar would give you one entry level year and an average of 60% of his projected market value during his arb years - that works out to probably 50% of his projected market value over his four cost-controlled years.



There are some better pitchers here (and a lot of worse ones), but every single one of them is going to cost a fortune more than Salazar/Carassco for non-prime years. I mean, are you really comparing signing guys like Cueto/Kazmir/Zimmerman to $100m+ deals to cost-controlled pitchers? Like I said, you are acting like the Jays can't trade Pompey/Sanchez for Salazar and then use the money you want to give to a big name starting pitcher to shore up your percieved outfield problem. Why does this money only exist in the scenario you prefer?

100M + is the going rate for any reasonable starter on the top end of a rotation. If the Jays want to compete, that's what it's going to cost. The Twins, Rockies, Marlins, Reds, Mets, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Pirates, etc. have all at one time or another had one or multiple 100+ M contracts on their roster over the past 5 years. Why the hell do the Jays, who are likely the 4th largest market in baseball, always worried about ensuring all their players are under cost control? It's a good thing to have and consider, but it can't dictate every move a successful team makes.

And to answer your questions on the money reallocation, because history clearly suggeststhere is no way in hell the Blue Jays are going to get a pitcher through a trade then turn around and reallocate that money that is supposedly earmarked for starting pitching/bullpen, and spend it on the outfield. Not going to happen under Rogers. This 140M and, looking to spend to win now in the media is all typical Rogers public relations BS. The Jays know their fan base is not going to except losing Price without a replacement, so they will be getting us a starting pitcher. They are going to do it though as cheaply as possible and in a manner that doesn't look like a backwards or sidestep to the new casual Jays fans they've reacquired. I wouldn't have any problem with the trade if I actually thought the Jays would reinvest the money in the hole they are creating.

Let's be honest here though, trading Pillar and Sanchez for a middle of the road starter with potential doesn't fill the ace hole, and i s just a lateral move at best. This moves a hole in the rotation, to a hole in the outfield and an even bigger the bullpen, and they still wouldn't have that Ace to go into the playoffs with. If this team was actually serious about winning, they'd be plugging all their holes, and not just reallocating where their holes in the roster are.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Kluber is an ace. Carrasco a solid number two. The reason that there is a discussion is because other teams have caught onto the value of Pillar. My preference would be some AA magic moving Revere and Hutchinson for Salazar or Bauer, but the AA pixie dust is a non-renewable resource.We have to work with Shapiro troll dirt, and hope for the best.

Outside of the Donaldson deal (which I will be forever grateful), there's no pixie dust in what AA did. Any GM could have made the deals he made. I think AA gets way too much credit for those moves. He basically traded every last single prospect the Blue Jays had to win last year. He didn't have to ask Rogers for permission either as he had accumulated enough surplus in the budget to be able to take on some pro-rated contacts without having to ask for more money.

Where AA should get credit, is he really stuck it to Rogers, and gave Jays fans something to cheer for again. As a result of last year's success, AA has forced Rogers hand into putting a potential contender on the field for the next couple of years. I don't think the plan was to win at all last year at all. The plan was to stay the course and have a boat load of pitching prospects for Shapiro when he took over and started to rebuild. Him and Beeston were not happy (Beeston about being removed deceptively and AA about the hiring of Shapiro), and went out with a bang.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by 868904

I wonder how much of the "players don't want to play in Canada" thing is true. If so, that could be a reason why the Jays have to go the trade route. The free agents they have signed in the past haven't really been prime pickings yet they still end up paying a lot for average players.

The current core was pretty much acquired completely through trades and drafting with Martin being the exception who happens to be Canadian.

Chen might want to come to Toronto as there's a big Chinese population.

I think not wanting to play in Canada is a disadvantage to the Jays, but I think the biggest factor is 22 years of futility and the perception among the league and the player agents that the Jays owners are cheap and not committed to winning. If the Jays put a couple of good seasons together in a row, I think you'd see them on quite a few less lists. I was really opening last year's run and acquisitions would go a long way in changing that and warm players up to playing in Toronto, but after the debacle this off-season is shaping up to be, I think it was probably a wasted opportunity.

[JiriHrdina]

How is this off season a debacle except in your incredibly negative head space?

[ClubFlames]

This off season has been a debacle of monumental proportions. All the free agents have already been signed by other teams because.. Rogers. All the trades have already been completed and Jays didn't do anything because.. Rogers. I just hope we can win even a single game because the season starts tomorrow but we are destined to go 0-162 because.. Rogers.

I am a huge fan of the Jays though because.. Rogers.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

How is this off season a debacle except in your incredibly negative head space?

Yeah, for real. Calling the MLB offseaon a "debacle" on November 20th is borderline insane. The winter meetings havn't even happened yet... it's like calling the NHL offseason a debacle a week before the draft.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

How is this off season a debacle except in your incredibly negative head space?

I don't know, how about the reigning MLB Executive of the year that bleeds Toronto saying thanks but no thanks to a large contract offer to remain with the team?

I think the lore of AA is overstated, but what free agent in their right mind is going to sign with Toronto (even if they were going to open the wallet) when the hometown hero who is loved by the entire clubhouse says he's taking his ball and going home without even another position currently available?

AA leaving the team likely erased all the goodwill that last year's moves and run made for the organization. I honestly am not that upset AA is no longer GM (Shapiro is just as qualified and more connected), but I realize from a reputation perspective that AA rejecting that offer was terrible.

[Parallex]

On another note I was looking at places the Jays could upgrade and on the position player side the only spot that could really use an upgrade would be 1B. What would people think of the team signing Jaso? Turning him into a quasi-super utility man as part of a platoon 1B combo with Colabella, Third Catcher (with Thole getting the Dickey starts), Pinch-hitter, and occasional DH. He'd basically be an Adam Lind that could also be a catcher (or a better hitting Navarro).

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I don't know, how about the reigning MLB Executive of the year that bleeds Toronto saying thanks but no thanks to a large contract offer to remain with the team?

I think the lore of AA is overstated, but what free agent in their right mind is going to sign with Toronto (even if they were going to open the wallet) when the hometown hero who is loved by the entire clubhouse says he's taking his ball and going home without even another position currently available?

AA leaving the team likely erased all the goodwill that last year's moves and run made for the organization. I honestly am not that upset AA is no longer GM (Shapiro is just as qualified and more connected), but I realize from a reputation perspective that AA rejecting that offer was terrible.

No doubt it was a negative thing from a fan perspective, but you are grossly over-estimating the impact that will leave on the entire offseason.

We already nailed down one of the top free agent SP in Estrada, so let's not get carried away. At worst I would say this offseason thus far has been break even - at worst. Still plenty of time to go to improve on and off the field.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

We already nailed down one of the top free agent SP in Estrada, so let's not get carried away.

No offense intended but let's not get carried away by describing Estrada as one of the top free agent SP.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

On another note I was looking at places the Jays could upgrade and on the position player side the only spot that could really use an upgrade would be 1B. What would people think of the team signing Jaso? Turning him into a quasi-super utility man as part of a platoon 1B combo with Colabella, Third Catcher (with Thole getting the Dickey starts), Pinch-hitter, and occasional DH. He'd basically be an Adam Lind that could also be a catcher (or a better hitting Navarro).

Jaso is a Blue Jays Killer at Rogers Centre, and would be very complimentary to Colabello as he is a left handed batter and I would expect the Jays to be walking away from Smoak. I think it would be a solid signing. I'd like to give Colabello a shot as the everyday 1st basemen though. His split between LHP and RHP is not that much. Last year he hit .326 and .308 respectively.

Jaso is not a better hitter than Navaro.

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by Parallex

No offense intended but let's not get carried away by describing Estrada as one of the top free agent SP.

Maybe slight over-verbage, but locking him up was crucial. He misses bats which is what this team needs, any any guy that gets his name in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting is certainly a decent starter.

I would call that a good start to the off-season which really was my main point.