2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by fleury

While I don't agree, I don't necessarily disagree on your view of Rogers' stance.

Toronto generally pays for good performance. With the Jays though, if the Jays made all these deals last November, I'm not convinced the fans would've had the same turnout as they did when most the deals were made at the deadline and just came out of nowhere. It was a shock effect and it wasn't expected in the least. Whether it continues into next season, as good as ticket sales were this year, I wouldn't be surprised if fans regress a little bit.

Secondly, the effect of the USD. Surely Rogers hedges against this, but how much and when? The currency exchange is likely killing them right now as I don't imagine they banked a lot of that hedging last year, knowing the dollar was going to tank. Just think about it for a second. They lose 30% for every dollar they spend right now, because they have to pay in US funds. On that alone I don't blame them for being a little cheap. It's hard to keep up with the Jones', if you're in such a tough economic situation. Which brings me to my third point - risk...

Rogers is a corporation. They're responsible to their shareholders to bring value. Surely this year was very valuable to shareholders based on ticket sales, merchandise and playoff revenue. That is undeniable. However, this is a sport and especially baseball, is so difficult to make the playoffs. Say the Jays poured Bosox money this year again and they didn't make it, suddenly shareholders are pissed that there was no good ROI. Look at it from the perspective of the CEO. How do you forecast to your shareholders what the expected income will be the following quarter if much of your estimate is on how a sports property is performing? It's a tough sell. Corporate ownership in sports sucks, because they're responsible first to the shareholder, then second the fan. At least private ownership by some old rich guy means greater risk propositions, because it's play money.

If Rogers showed an actual commitment to winning a championship in a continual basis and the Jays played im a normal sized stadium (30k), they'd sell out every night. The day of the mega stadium is over. They actually hurt attendance becaus their is no incentive to buy game packs or season tickets because you can just walk up any game you want and get a ticket.

That said there's nothing we Can do about the stadium. It is what it is. With the Jays you just can't look at the butts in the seats at Rogers Centre. They sell their merchandise and broadcast their games to an entire nation. The revenue bump from that this year will be ridiculous.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

If Rogers showed an actual commitment to winning a championship in a continual basis and the Jays played im a normal sized stadium (30k), they'd sell out every night. The day of the mega stadium is over. They actually hurt attendance becaus their is no incentive to buy game packs or season tickets because you can just walk up any game you want and get a ticket.

That said there's nothing we Can do about the stadium. It is what it is. With the Jays you just can't look at the butts in the seats at Rogers Centre. They sell their merchandise and broadcast their games to an entire nation. The revenue bump from that this year will be ridiculous.

That I don't think tells the whole story. They only started making good gate revenue after the deals. That was around mid July, I believe. So nearly three months of close-to sell outs. Plus very nice merchandise sales. However, what were their expenses like during this time? The USD is also hurting them big time when it comes to payroll. TV right deals aren't through the roof as it is in the states either. Factoring all this qualitatively in, I don't think they made a crazy killing here. Again, the dollar is really not good.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by fleury

That I don't think tells the whole story. They only started making good gate revenue after the deals. That was around mid July, I believe. So nearly three months of close-to sell outs. Plus very nice merchandise sales. However, what were their expenses like during this time? The USD is also hurting them big time when it comes to payroll. TV right deals aren't through the roof as it is in the states either. Factoring all this qualitatively in, I don't think they made a crazy killing here. Again, the dollar is really not good.

They had almost 40 home games in that time period. I think it's safe to say that they increased average attendance at those games by 20K at an average ticket price of $60 bucks. That's an increase of almost 50M dollars in increased revenues on tickets sales alone. That's just the tip of the iceberg. How much money did the jays take in extra on concessions during that game ( a beer and hotdog are a 23 dollar combo there, I went to three games in August and spent well over $300 on concessions alone as one person)? How much merchandise did they sell over that time period? You couldn't get a piece of Jays merchandise anywhere in the entire country by the time mid-September rolled around.

The Jays played 6 home playoff games to capacity crowds of 49K (I think). The Jays were selling tickets in the upper bowl in the ALDS for $100 and the ALCS for $150. God knows what the lower bowl was selling for. So using average ticket price of $150 over 6 games, that's another increase in revenue of 44M just on tickets sales alone without consideration of any concessions or tv revenues.

I think it's safe to assume here the Jays took in extra revenue of probably 200M on this little run here when all is said and done without even consideration of how many extra seasons tickets it sold for next year.

So to say that Rogers didn't make a killing on this is a joke. They are reinvesting a grand total of ZERO of this back into team. They will redistribute this to their shareholders. That's the right move for a corporation, it's not for a professional baseball team. This is the problems with the Jays and why their long term fans are so disgruntled with the ownership structure.

Not sure why you keep saying the exchange rate when talking about last year's profits. The Jays are hedged, the change in FX rate last year would have a minimal effect on their bottom line. It may going forward (depending on well they are hedge), but it's not even a consideration for 2015. The FX thing also goes both ways, any money they get from the tv deals is in USD.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

They had almost 40 home games in that time period. I think it's safe to say that they increased average attendance at those games by 20K at an average ticket price of $60 bucks. That's an increase of almost 50M dollars in increased revenues on tickets sales alone. That's just the tip of the iceberg. How much money did the jays take in extra on concessions during that game ( a beer and hotdog are a 23 dollar combo there, I went to three games in August and spent well over $300 on concessions alone as one person)? How much merchandise did they sell over that time period? You couldn't get a piece of Jays merchandise anywhere in the entire country by the time mid-September rolled around.

The Jays played 6 home playoff games to capacity crowds of 49K (I think). The Jays were selling tickets in the upper bowl in the ALDS for $100 and the ALCS for $150. God knows what the lower bowl was selling for. So using average ticket price of $150 over 6 games, that's another increase in revenue of 44M just on tickets sales alone without consideration of any concessions or tv revenues.

I think it's safe to assume here the Jays took in extra revenue of probably 200M on this little run here when all is said and done without even consideration of how many extra seasons tickets it sold for next year.

So to say that Rogers didn't make a killing on this is a joke. They are reinvesting a grand total of ZERO of this back into team. They will redistribute this to their shareholders. That's the right move for a corporation, it's not for a professional baseball team. This is the problems with the Jays and why their long term fans are so disgruntled with the ownership structure.

Not sure why you keep saying the exchange rate when talking about last year's profits. The Jays are hedged, the change in FX rate last year would have a minimal effect on their bottom line. It may going forward (depending on well they are hedge), but it's not even a consideration for 2015. The FX thing also goes both ways, any money they get from the tv deals is in USD.

I can't find the article any longer, but I read something from CBC that cited Rogers made $130 MM off the Jays from August - September. Definitely not an unsubstantial number

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I can't find the article any longer, but I read something from CBC that cited Rogers made $130 MM off the Jays from August - September. Definitely not an unsubstantial number

Yup, and that was even before the playoffs.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Some commentary from Bob McCown.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb...will-decrease/

[Caged Great]

Jays apparently are targeting Chris Davis.

Yes please.

All your Dingers belong to the Jays.

[Harry Lime]

With the addition of Chris Davis (if that happens) and retaining of Colabello, would there be a higher likelyhood of EE becoming a trading chip before the season begins? A rotation of Bautista and Davis at DH opening up playing time for Pompey?

[Roof-Daddy]

Good lord yes please.

[dustyanddaflames]

I don't love Chris Davis' and his 1/3 strike out rate - but he at least plays a position, and would replace Encarnacion's power if he were to get traded this off-season. He has a good OBP as well, .361 OBP isn't bad for a guy with over 200 k's last year. And he's a LH bat that the lineup could use in the meat of the order.

I do think if it comes down to Encarnacion or Bautista, you have to move Edwin first.

[Caged Great]

Why not keep all of them for this season and sign a couple of okay starters like Kazmir and Lackey?

[browna]

I think you only do it if you can do it for the right price that allows you to keep EE and moving him to DH. A great slugger, and, like JB, a great hitter with a very good eye and patience to take walks. HIs non-Enligh speaking keeps him somewhat in the shadows, but he's very valuable.

And, the focus has to be on pitching. With all the HR's into July this year, the team was 50-51 until Tulo, Price and others came along, and Tulo wasn't amazing with the bat.

Adding Davis will be fun to watch, but stuck watching Loup and next years Bo Schultz help give up the 4 run lead the bats have gotten them, will be as frustrating as it was in the first couple months this year.

There will be a lot of suitors for a guy like Davis that will drive up the price. Who doesn't want a left handed slugger?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

With the addition of Chris Davis (if that happens) and retaining of Colabello, would there be a higher likelyhood of EE becoming a trading chip before the season begins?

Not really, I've seen Davis be estimated in the 20-25M range... EE costs 10M. Unless the reports of the Jays budget was grossly underestimated it makes no sense.

[Harry Lime]

The UFA market for first basemen is almost nothing. If Chris Davis is really going to cost that much, perhaps it is better to stay away. The second best option on the market, however, is Justin Morneau.

Morneau made 7,25M last year, but played only 53 games. His option wasn't picked up by the Rockies, which put him at the lowest monetary value of his career. The question is, would it be worth taking a risk on playing him in the American League, where wear and tear on his body could be protected by part time in the DH?

A perennial .300+ hitter, protected by the presence of Colabello, who can still play first base, and give us an additional 4-5M to pay relievers, and allows us to trade EE. Worth a look?

Because that's about it for first base, barring a trade.

[whosurnabby]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

The UFA market for first basemen is almost nothing. If Chris Davis is really going to cost that much, perhaps it is better to stay away. The second best option on the market, however, is Justin Morneau.

Morneau made 7,25M last year, but played only 53 games. His option wasn't picked up by the Rockies, which put him at the lowest monetary value of his career. The question is, would it be worth taking a risk on playing him in the American League, where wear and tear on his body could be protected by part time in the DH?

A perennial .300+ hitter, protected by the presence of Colabello, who can still play first base, and give us an additional 4-5M to pay relievers, and allows us to trade EE. Worth a look?

Because that's about it for first base, barring a trade.

It'll be great if we see the 2014 version of Morneau as well. If I was the GM, I'd definitely offer him something. And of course...don't forget about the "Canadian" factor.

[Jiggy_12]

Jose Bautista wrote a piece on batflip-gate. Definitely worth a read.

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/jos...ista-bat-flip/

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

Jose Bautista wrote a piece on batflip-gate. Definitely worth a read.

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/jos...ista-bat-flip/

Great read but I have a hard time believing Bautista wrote that himself.

[KelVarnsen]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Great read but I have a hard time believing Bautista wrote that himself.

Ok, I'll bite. Why?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

Ok, I'll bite. Why?

I just think it's the work of a ghost writer. Maybe I'm wrong but I doubt the average baseball player writes that well, or even close to that well. If it is was Bautista, he should really think of writing as a post baseball career. That was a great piece.

[Muffins]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Great read but I have a hard time believing Bautista wrote that himself.

None of them do. They work with an editor who helps them piece it all together.